Tyron Woodley +221 (74" Reach) vs Vicente Luque (75" reach)
Current line: Woodley +205
After an outstanding championship run from 2016-2019, Tyron Woodley has loss 15 consecutive rounds over the last 2 years. Whats the cause? I really don't have a good answer. Maybe he got distracted with his acting, rapping, and commentating career. It certainly isn't because a lack of skill or talent. He has flashed that world class explosive athleticism in each of his 3 losses but it's just few and far between. Tyron simply hasn't shown up ready to fight. He has always been a patient fighter, almost to a fault. But in his recent bouts it almost seems like he's trigger shy. Waiting for the perfect shot that simply never seems to arrive. It's fair to say maybe he was outmatched, realized it in the cage, and lacked the confidence to be offensive. Prior to this 3 fight losing streak Woodley sported the best takedown defense in the UFC. In each of his last 3 fights he was taken down 2+ times and was controlled on the mat. To be fair he fought the #1, #2, and #3 fighters in the world in succession. Who all also happen to be world class grapplers.
Vicente Luque is an exciting fighter. His strikes are stiff and crisp but his defense is nearly non existent (5.72-5.82 landed vs absorbed ratio). Luque has been blessed with a granite chin. He relies on walking through opponents shots, delivering heavy blows, and wearing you down with his pace. While this makes for fun fights, this approach does not work against the elite in the UFC. To me, it's no secret that his 3 losses in the UFC have come against the 3 best fighters he has faced. He was embarassed by Stephen Thompson, Michael Graves and Leon Edwards. Luque also does not defend takedowns well (64% defense). He has been fortunate in his career to not have been slated against elite grapplers since his UFC debut. His takedown defense would probably be worse with a tougher schedule.
On paper Tyron Woodley is about as bad of a matchup as you can make for Luque. Woodley has elite power (arguably the best in the division) that can neutralize Luque's zombie like chin and elite wrestling to take him to the mat to neutralize his pressure. Woodley has not wrestled offensively for some time now and has used his wrestling to evade takedowns rather than send his opponent to the mat. He has also been fighting primarily 5 round bouts and I think his approach has been moreso to conserve energy for championship rounds. I think he will be more willing to wrestle given this will be his first 3 round bout in over 5 years. The real unknown is finding out which Tyron Woodley shows up when the cage doors lock. The fighter who was on pace to be the best 170lb champion ever or the ex-champ who has been shutout and gunshy over his last 3 fights. At this price, my money is banking on the Tyron of old reminding the world what he is capable of. Woodley by TKO.