What Happened to Flu Season?

"Feb, 25, 2021 -- Do you know anyone who’s had the flu this year? Probably not.

The U.S. is seeing historically low levels of influenza this season, which started in September 2020.

This time last year, the national map of flu activity published by the CDC showed so many active cases that some states had burned right through red to a dark purple for “very high” activity. This year, the map is a calm green with hardly a blip on the public health radar. Public health labs across the U.S. reported a grand total of 3 cases of flu in the U.S. last week, out of nearly 16,000 samples tested. Clinical laboratories, which tested nearly 25,000 samples, found just 14 flu cases.

So far this season, labs reporting to the CDC had just 1,585 samples test positive for flu of any kind. Compare that to last year over the same period, when there were more than 183,000 positive samples. Those numbers are making infectious disease specialists do double takes.

“Nobody has seen a flu season this low, ever. And some of us have some gray hair,” says William Schaffner, MD, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University in Nashville. Vanderbilt is part of a network of hospitals that are actively looking for flu cases among their patients. They can’t find any.
So far this year, only one child has died of the flu. Last year, that number was 195.

Flu numbers are way down in Canada, too.

“It's absolutely incredible to have a complete nonevent flu season,” says Isaac Bogoch, MD, an infectious disease specialist at the Toronto General Hospital Research Institute in Canada.
Bogoch is Jewish, so every year, he volunteers to work over Christmas at his hospital to give his colleagues a break.

“I didn't admit one person with influenza during the Christmas block at Toronto General Hospital this year. And of course that's just my individual experience. But if you look at the national numbers for Canada, and of course the national numbers for the United States, it looks like everyone else had a very similar experience as me. There's just remarkably little influenza,” he says.

The pattern in North America followed an extremely quiet flu season the Southern Hemisphere. The U.S. typically looks to countries like Australia for a glimpse at what might be coming to our shores. Doctors say they are beyond relieved that we didn’t see flu misery on top of the winter COVID-19 surge.

“The question is why, and the answer is pretty interesting,” Bogoch says.

First, he says, there are the precautions people have been taking for COVID, like masking, social distancing, and frequent hand-washing. Sure, not everybody is doing these things, but many are. “I don’t think we can ignore that,” he says.

Secondly, many people seem to have heeded public health advice to get a flu vaccine.

“At least in Canada, there was massive uptake of the flu vaccine this year,” Bogoch says.

Official numbers on vaccination rates for this year’s flu season aren’t yet available for the U.S., but so far, the CDC says nearly 194 million doses of flu vaccine have been distributed. That’s another record, topping last year’s distribution by about 20 million doses. Distribution isn’t the same as the number of shots going into arms, so it remains to be seen whether high vaccination coverage may have played an important role in tamping down the flu here.

Bogoch also points to less international travel as a reason the flu wasn’t a big deal.

“This is an infection that that follows mobility patterns as well,” he says, “and there's just remarkably less human mobility this year.”

Perhaps the biggest reason for the disappearance of the flu this year has to do with children.

“Children are the great distributors of the influenza virus in our society,” Schaffner says.

Kids shed flu virus for longer than adults do, and they shed it a day or two before they show any symptoms, says Jennifer Nayak, MD, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at the University of Rochester Medical School. She has studied the life cycle of flu infections in children.

“As we’ve learned the hard way, with COVID, shedding virus before you are symptomatic makes it really, really hard to contain an infection,” she says.

Young children also don’t “control their secretions,” as Nayak gently puts it. They sneeze and cough and slobber all over the adult caregivers they are still highly dependent on, making them very good at spreading the flu.

But interestingly, kids may not play an outsized role in the transmission of COVID.

So far, evidence from household and school contact tracing studies of COVID suggests that children, especially younger ones, are often not the first in a group to get COVID and may not be as contagious as adults, though studies are ongoing to try to sort that out. Kids may also be less likely to show symptoms and be tested, making them silent spreaders of the infection.

And many kids were kept home this winter for virtual classes and birthday parties.

“They weren't even playing together, because mothers were keeping them off the playground and not having play dates. And so, in fact, I think that's the major reason,” the flu is all but gone, Schaffner says.

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20210225/what-happened-to-flu-season




 

mr merlin

EOG Master
I thought we settled that, covid forced the flu to low levels, it did it naturally, just as an influenza strain suppressed the swine flu(or was it sars?) about 10 years ago.
 
Hardly.

The article lists around 5 different reasons the flu is hugely down recently.

Of course viral suppression is another.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
Hardly.

The article lists around 5 different reasons the flu is hugely down recently.

Of course viral suppression is another.
The theorys all sound fine until you realize the suppression of flu was worldwide, even in areas that did nothing different than usual.
 
The theorys all sound fine until you realize the suppression of flu was worldwide, even in areas that did nothing different than usual.

Where did they do "nothing different than usual" with international airfare all but shut down worldwide, etc? That's a major spreader of the flu. Neutered.
 

billysink

EOG Dedicated
Where did they do "nothing different than usual" with international airfare all but shut down worldwide, etc? That's a major spreader of the flu. Neutered.


You are debating medicine with the human equivalent of a single Styrofoam peanut.


Do you go to your physician and debate Styrofoam peanuts?

Why?




1620430658767.png
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
You are debating medicine with the human equivalent of a single Styrofoam peanut.


Do you go to your physician and debate Styrofoam peanuts?

Why?




View attachment 7464068
Debate? there is no debate, X thinks that humans can and have influenced the course of a pandemic - for the 1st time in recorded history - that must mean we're real smart huh?

I say all the govt intervention, all the mitigation, hasn't accomplished anything significant.

With regards to the flu it's a fact that it's prevalence has declined by 98%+ worldwide, the question is why? X thinks it's because people have changed their behaviors and inhibited the flu virus, I say it's completely natural and as evidence point to the fact that mitigation measures vary widely across the world, but the prevalence of flu is the same everywhere.

He says "oh yea, they must of done something" , I say "did not, did not" and figuratively stick my tongue out at him.

So we are two intellectual giants engaged in mental combat!
 
Debate? there is no debate, X thinks that humans can and have influenced the course of a pandemic - for the 1st time in recorded history - that must mean we're real smart huh?

Humans have "influenced the course of a pandemic" before. Sometimes they made them even worse by their actions. Even during the covid19 pandemic. Which BTW wasn't the first time masks have been worn.

I say all the govt intervention, all the mitigation, hasn't accomplished anything significant.

With regards to the flu it's a fact that it's prevalence has declined by 98%+ worldwide, the question is why? X thinks it's because people have changed their behaviors and inhibited the flu virus, I say it's completely natural and as evidence point to the fact that mitigation measures vary widely across the world, but the prevalence of flu is the same everywhere.

Actually i say the flu cases & deaths being so low since covid19 is mainly due to (1) extreme safety measures & (2) viral suppression. The former was heavily practiced almost universally across the entire globe of human nations.

I'm still waiting for the answer to this earlier in this thread, quoting myself:

"Where did they do "nothing different than usual" with international airfare all but shut down worldwide, etc? That's a major spreader of the flu. Neutered."
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
Humans have "influenced the course of a pandemic" before. Sometimes they made them even worse by their actions. Even during the covid19 pandemic. Which BTW wasn't the first time masks have been worn.



Actually i say the flu cases & deaths being so low since covid19 is mainly due to (1) extreme safety measures & (2) viral suppression. The former was heavily practiced almost universally across the entire globe of human nations.

I'm still waiting for the answer to this earlier in this thread, quoting myself:

"Where did they do "nothing different than usual" with international airfare all but shut down worldwide, etc? That's a major spreader of the flu. Neutered."
Much of africa, russia, bela, south asia(india and others), even austrailia and NZ - other than some relatively brief shutdowns they didn't wear masks or social distance.
 

billysink

EOG Dedicated
Much of africa, russia, bela, south asia(india and others), even austrailia and NZ - other than some relatively brief shutdowns they didn't wear masks or social distance.



Your bullshit getting tired. Stale.

You need new shit guy. At least switch flavors or what ever
 
"Where did they do "nothing different than usual" with international airfare all but shut down worldwide, etc? That's a major spreader of the flu. Neutered."

Much of africa, russia, bela, south asia(india and others), even austrailia and NZ - other than some relatively brief shutdowns they didn't wear masks or social distance.

Nowhere on that list did they do "nothing different than usual". In NZ, for example, both mask wearing & social distancing has been practiced according to:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_Zealand

"The country eliminated Covid 19 in the community by shutting its border in mid-March 2020, introducing compulsory quarantine for all returnees, and instituting a series of lockdowns to stamp out existing clusters. Every so often, a case slips through the border, causing a small outbreak. But without community transmission in the background, New Zealand can drill down into individual cases with forensic detail.

"Using a mixture of genomic sequencing and epidemiology, the country works to identify precisely who gave the virus to whom and – often enough – the environment in which it happened.

https://www.theguardian.com/global/...id-success-made-it-a-laboratory-for-the-world

The same N.Z. health measures that resulted in almost no covid19 deaths also resulted in few, if any, flu deaths:

"...this year, the flu season – in which 20,000 people usually catch the virus and between 400 and 500 die – never came.

Public health measures and the lockdown stopped the virus in its tracks and saved lives – something the ESR virologist has never seen in 22 years of flu surveillance.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...son-that-never-was-thanks-to-covid19-response

Overall N.Z. has reported a mere 2,634 cases of covid19 infections. Even if the actual number were 10 times that amount, it is a tiny fraction of the population of almost 5 million. Covid wasn't circulating inside of a large enough percentage of people at any time last year to block the flu from circulating & spreading to any great extent. Extreme safety measures were mainly responsible for that.

http://forums.eog.com/index.php?thr...eath-us-2015-2020.7468802/page-2#post-7704655
 
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mr merlin

EOG Master
Nowhere on that list did they do "nothing different than usual". In NZ, for example, both mask wearing & social distancing has been practiced according to:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_Zealand

"The country eliminated Covid 19 in the community by shutting its border in mid-March 2020, introducing compulsory quarantine for all returnees, and instituting a series of lockdowns to stamp out existing clusters. Every so often, a case slips through the border, causing a small outbreak. But without community transmission in the background, New Zealand can drill down into individual cases with forensic detail.

"Using a mixture of genomic sequencing and epidemiology, the country works to identify precisely who gave the virus to whom and – often enough – the environment in which it happened.

https://www.theguardian.com/global/...id-success-made-it-a-laboratory-for-the-world

The same N.Z. health measures that resulted in almost no covid19 deaths also resulted in few, if any, flu deaths:

"...this year, the flu season – in which 20,000 people usually catch the virus and between 400 and 500 die – never came.

Public health measures and the lockdown stopped the virus in its tracks and saved lives – something the ESR virologist has never seen in 22 years of flu surveillance.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...son-that-never-was-thanks-to-covid19-response

Overall N.Z. has reported a mere 2,634 cases of covid19 infections. Even if the actual number were 10 times that amount, it is a tiny fraction of the population of almost 5 million. Covid wasn't circulating inside of a large enough percentage of people at any time last year to block the flu from circulating & spreading to any great extent. Extreme safety measures were mainly responsible for that.

http://forums.eog.com/index.php?thr...eath-us-2015-2020.7468802/page-2#post-7704655
I've seen videos of full concerts, etc in NZ, with no masks.
 
I've seen videos of full concerts, etc in NZ, with no masks.

That is well known. So what. Why not have a maskless concert when your borders are closed & infections are zero. They didn't get to that point by partying every day since the start of 2020 with borders wide open, tourists flocking to NZ & no public safety protocols (masks, distancing, tracing, quarantines etc) or lockdowns.

During covid they've had times, contrary to your claim, where masks were mandated or recommended and worn by many. And, contrary to your claim, social distancing was widely in practice.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54260925

1620487449018.png
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
That is well known. So what. Why not have a maskless concert when your borders are closed & infections are zero. They didn't get to that point by partying every day since the start of 2020 with borders wide open, tourists flocking to NZ & no public safety protocols (masks, distancing, tracing, quarantines etc) or lockdowns.

During covid they've had times, contrary to your claim, where masks were mandated or recommended and worn by many. And, contrary to your claim, social distancing was widely in practice.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54260925

View attachment 7464076
More and more states dropping masks and restrictions, all restrictions, my state of MN and WV just announced this week. Where is all the outrage that was voiced when TX, MS and the rest did it a couple months ago?

Did the covid nutcases just give up?
 
My reference was dated March 31st, over a month ago, but speaks of the vast majority of Texans still wearing masks 3 weeks after the mandate was over.

"On March 10, Gov. Greg Abbott lifted the statewide mask mandate, leaving the choice to wear one up to people and businesses."

As for a crowd not wearing masks, as stated above it's up to businesses & evidently the vast majority were requiring masks.

Big crowd events have already been happening in many places even where mask wearing was mandated, few if any were vaccinated & cases of infections high. So a big crowd get together of people or covidiots is nothing new. What's changed is way more are vaccinated & infections are down in many locations.

"California stresses equity for minority groups. Texas is all about personal choice and liberty."

"... either partially or fully vaccinated...43% of Texans." (Apr.28, now over 51% only 12 days later).

https://www.sciencefriday.com/articles/california-texas-covid-vaccine/
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
My reference was dated March 31st, over a month ago, but speaks of the vast majority of Texans still wearing masks 3 weeks after the mandate was over.

"On March 10, Gov. Greg Abbott lifted the statewide mask mandate, leaving the choice to wear one up to people and businesses."

As for a crowd not wearing masks, as stated above it's up to businesses & evidently the vast majority were requiring masks.

Big crowd events have already been happening in many places even where mask wearing was mandated, few if any were vaccinated & cases of infections high. So a big crowd get together of people or covidiots is nothing new. What's changed is way more are vaccinated & infections are down in many locations.

"California stresses equity for minority groups. Texas is all about personal choice and liberty."

"... either partially or fully vaccinated...43% of Texans." (Apr.28, now over 51% only 12 days later).

https://www.sciencefriday.com/articles/california-texas-covid-vaccine/
What's going on with these case numbers? While they are dropping almost everywhere, they seem kinda high in the heavily vaccinated states. Right now there is no relation between how fast cases are declining and vaccination levels. It could be due to regional variation but it looks like the fastest declines are in the less vaccinated states.
 
What's going on with these case numbers? While they are dropping almost everywhere, they seem kinda high in the heavily vaccinated states. Right now there is no relation between how fast cases are declining and vaccination levels. It could be due to regional variation but it looks like the fastest declines are in the less vaccinated states.

Case numbers depend on many variables, such as (1) population density, (2) how high they were in the past (e.g. prior to vaccinations), (3) how healthy people are, (4) what safety measures they are taking (e.g. distancing, masks, isolating, lockdowns), (5) percentage vaccinated, (6) irresponsible behaviour levels, (7) how many are being tested, etc.

More significant than simple numbers or percentages of infections would be accurate stats re those hospitalized, in ICU, suffering "long covid" & deaths.

" "50,000 new cases per day definitely is too high, but that number is dropping slowly as more persons [get the] vaccine,” Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee, told Healthline. “I expect the downward trend to continue but would like to see the rate of decline accelerate.”

"Other experts are also cautiously optimistic.

" “I expect this trend to continue. However, I am concerned about new, more contagious variants. I am hoping that a booster is available soon and people continue to get vaccinated,” Dr. Jamila Taylor, director of healthcare reform and a senior fellow at The Century Foundation, told Healthline last week.

"...This past week, 17 states reported increases in COVID-19 cases compared with 12 states the prior week."

"...More than 147 million people have received at least one dose. That’s more than half of the adult population in the country. More than 105 million people are fully vaccinated.

"...the White House announced today that it is shifting its vaccine distribution, sending more to states where vaccination rates are higher with the goal of having 70 percent of the country vaccinated by July 4.

https://www.healthline.com/health-n...-2#block-7560b4e1-bf82-4661-a1f2-4efa99fc9604
 
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"Worth noting as well that California which was THE US hotspot now has a noticeably lower daily case rate than Texas. "

California has more vaccinated than Texas.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
Case numbers depend on many variables, such as (1) population density, (2) how high they were in the past (e.g. prior to vaccinations), (3) how healthy people are, (4) what safety measures they are taking (e.g. distancing, masks, isolating, lockdowns), (5) percentage vaccinated, (6) irresponsible behaviour levels, (7) how many are being tested, etc.

More significant than simple numbers or percentages of infections would be accurate stats re those hospitalized, in ICU, suffering "long covid" & deaths.

" "50,000 new cases per day definitely is too high, but that number is dropping slowly as more persons [get the] vaccine,” Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee, told Healthline. “I expect the downward trend to continue but would like to see the rate of decline accelerate.”

"Other experts are also cautiously optimistic.

" “I expect this trend to continue. However, I am concerned about new, more contagious variants. I am hoping that a booster is available soon and people continue to get vaccinated,” Dr. Jamila Taylor, director of healthcare reform and a senior fellow at The Century Foundation, told Healthline last week.

"...This past week, 17 states reported increases in COVID-19 cases compared with 12 states the prior week."

"...More than 147 million people have received at least one dose. That’s more than half of the adult population in the country. More than 105 million people are fully vaccinated.

"...the White House announced today that it is shifting its vaccine distribution, sending more to states where vaccination rates are higher with the goal of having 70 percent of the country vaccinated by July 4.

https://www.healthline.com/health-n...-2#block-7560b4e1-bf82-4661-a1f2-4efa99fc9604
Case numbers depend on many variables, such as (1) population density, (2) how high they were in the past (e.g. prior to vaccinations), (3) how healthy people are, (4) what safety measures they are taking (e.g. distancing, masks, isolating, lockdowns), (5) percentage vaccinated, (6) irresponsible behaviour levels, (7) how many are being tested, etc.

More significant than simple numbers or percentages of infections would be accurate stats re those hospitalized, in ICU, suffering "long covid" & deaths.

" "50,000 new cases per day definitely is too high, but that number is dropping slowly as more persons [get the] vaccine,” Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee, told Healthline. “I expect the downward trend to continue but would like to see the rate of decline accelerate.”

"Other experts are also cautiously optimistic.

" “I expect this trend to continue. However, I am concerned about new, more contagious variants. I am hoping that a booster is available soon and people continue to get vaccinated,” Dr. Jamila Taylor, director of healthcare reform and a senior fellow at The Century Foundation, told Healthline last week.

"...This past week, 17 states reported increases in COVID-19 cases compared with 12 states the prior week."

"...More than 147 million people have received at least one dose. That’s more than half of the adult population in the country. More than 105 million people are fully vaccinated.

"...the White House announced today that it is shifting its vaccine distribution, sending more to states where vaccination rates are higher with the goal of having 70 percent of the country vaccinated by July 4.

https://www.healthline.com/health-n...-2#block-7560b4e1-bf82-4661-a1f2-4efa99fc9604
Things are moving quickly X, we're no longer averaging 50K/day, nor do i think anywhere close to 17 states are increasing.

The highest vaccination levels are in the NE - CT,, Maine, NH, vermont,, etc - they're over 70% and their cases and hospitalizations seem to have barely budged. Then you have all these southern states stuck in the 40's(and likely not going much higher) who seem to have better results?

I dont know why it's that way, I'm saying it seems strange.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
"Worth noting as well that California which was THE US hotspot now has a noticeably lower daily case rate than Texas. "

California has more vaccinated than Texas.
Yup, they're doing very good, of course that's what happens after a huge surge, immunity levels are very high, adding the vaccine on top of that makes it even better. Estimates were that over 50% of the pop in LA already had covid.

TX and FL numbers(especially hosp) had leveled off for a few weeks but seem to be in a strong decline right now.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
TX is at a low point in hospitalizations, cases are way down, positivity is dropping(another new low), they're doing just fine. Plus the whole point of doing just fine is doing it with the economy open.
 
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