sharky99
EOG Dedicated
I agree I think another strong effort is in the cards, Grubauer played well the 1st 2 periods when Vegas was controlling the majority of the game
NHL 2021 Season
- Thread starter sharky99
- Start date
I agree I think another strong effort is in the cards, Grubauer played well the 1st 2 periods when Vegas was controlling the majority of the game
Funny some gamblers just can't seem to get the last thing they saw out of their heads.
Might be time for a coaching change in Colorado. I mean talk about doing absolutely nothing different from game 2-3 and 4.
Bushay
NHL Expert
Bill, I respect your opinion but disagree with most of it.
Every trade is not a home run or a winner. They moved Tatar and Suzuki for Pacioretty. A bonified big name star who is a 1st team PP type of player. The Tatar trade didn't work out. Those things happen. They were trading from a strength they had acquired. Those picks were stockpiled for just those types of trade opportunities. Suzuki was a smaller prospect who had never even played an NHL game yet when they moved him for Pacioretty. They turned it into a home run as Patches was sought by many teams at the time.
Do you think McPhee was the only one shocked at their success? Regular-season success is much different than playoff success too btw. Are you saying he was not smart when he built this team? You say a smart GM would have done things differently with his assets. It's easy to criticize after the fact. And who's to say they won't win a couple of cups going forward?
I searched and didn't find anything about Foley insisting on Fluery getting an overpriced contract because I never heard a rumor of that. I did find he got involved and was instrumental in keeping him. Which I think is hard to disagree was an excellent move as he's in the Vezina voting for top goalie this season. Reeves otoh is by far the toughest player in the league. So yes I can understand then overpaying a bit for him. There are not many tough guys in the league who can play a little bit too. "And teams that were internally built like Colorado and Tampa will still be better and still be in position to be a serious threat for years to come" Ummm, they won't if they win a couple of cups as every team before them has. I.E. Detroit, Chicago, LA...Pitt about the only exception. Players win cups they want to be paid like Cup winners. The salary cap prevents teams from staying together after recent success. The platers union is a tight knit bunch. Taking pay cuts also doesn't sit will with the rest of the rank and file.
I could go on but won't. I like Deboer and Reeves a lot. Hated McPhee in Washington and he completely changed my mind with the job he did putting together this team from nothing. This team looked dead in the water after game one with the Avs and now they are the ones who look unbeatable.
Your expectations seem higher than most. Seriously, How much more were you expecting?
WildBill
2
Agree to disagree then. I think they took a winning strategy and turned it into a slightly better team for a lot shorter period. I think McPhee is a total idiot at this point, but he deserved credit for building the team from expansion well. His deals to get extra picks and assets were brilliant. But that was then, this is now. I don't think his philosophy of how to manage a winning team in their window is good at all, but that's why they put the fall guy McCrimmon in the GM seat. I think McCrimmon would be a fine GM and while no one can say for sure what he'd do, I think its pretty clear he doesn't have full GM responsibilities because McPhee is still around dictating what the player personnel at the NHL level is going to be from his elevated role. McCrimmon is responsible for everything below the NHL level, the coaches, the draft, and the management of player development. Not a lot of value can be added though if McPhee and DeBoer are notorious skeptics of young and unproven talent. And as long as McPhee decides trades of NHL talent he's going to poach all of the pipeline necessary to make those deals happen. There's a reason why he's always going to be remembered for the Forsberg trade.
And Reaves is a no-talent punk. Tough guy whatever. He needs to be chased out of the NHL.
Bushay
NHL Expert
There was a reason I disliked McPhee. I felt all or most of his success was built off Ovetchken's back and hard work. I don't think my dislike was on your level as he wasn't pulling the strings for a team I was rooting for every night. Like most of us, I wanted to see this new Vegas team succeed in the desert. I researched him and his past moves and thought what a horrible choice. I criticized him in almost the online conversations I was involved in. And then he pulled off that miracle and he shut me up. So believe me I know where you're coming from. So my disagreement with you is more towards the others you mentioned. You're not giving Deboer enough credit. He certainly doesn't have the look of a successful coach. But he's been a winner everywhere he's been except Florida. And that was his very first NHL coaching gig. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?encode=TRUE&pid=1284. His teams won 106 more games than they lost after leaving that pitiful Florida team. He turned a sad NJ team into winners and helped change the culture there. I like his coaching style never getting excited while either winning or losing. Cooper in TB the same demeanor. Scotty Bowman was the same also. Rarely showing emotion till you've reached the big prize. I believe that radiates to the players. As the toughest player in the league, no one taking liberties with Vegas players as they know Reeves will hold them accountable. ESPECIALLY in the playoffs. where toughness is so very important. So his value is not always in his offensive prowess.
Coaching is a difficult job sitting highly touted rookies or talented guys without playoff experience for veterans acquired for the playoffs or the stretch run. I experienced Bowman trade a 28-year-old 50 goal scorer in Ray Shepard for a near 40-year-old Igor Lariniov who was stuck with a Shark team going nowhere and become instrumental in leading the Red Wings to 3 Stanley Cups. The last when he was 42 years old. Those windows to win are very short sometimes, and GM's have a tough job juggling all the factors involved while constructing a team. 5 x as much with a salary cap. Where teams hire capologists to help make those tough decisions these days. That's far from an easy job. Now we have the Seattle expansion draft coming up. Teams will be making some very tough decisions coming up very soon. I think teams can only protect 3 defencemen. A cup-winning team with 5-6 solid dmen can lose half those guys for the following season. I've been involved with a couple of very sophisticated fantasy hockey keeper leagues where you're making those same sorts of decisions but with a lot less at stake. I got out cause it was much too time-consuming and difficult. Especially with a job at the time. I love researching that sort of stuff but learned quickly I'd make a horrible GM. 31 teams and when the season is over only the cup-winning GM and less than a handful of others will be credited with doing a successful job. McPhee's had 3 cracks here and got a visit to the finals, a 4th round loss and an early 1st round upset under his belt and as you yourself admit, he's still pulling the strings now and a couple more wins and you can add at least a 3rd round playoff appearance to his resume. You're too tough on these guys here, appreciate all the accomplishments. This window is short, no team sustains success for long. Second guessing tough decisions are easy.
sharky99
EOG Dedicated
Still can't believe the Capitals didn't want to give Trotz more than the Million he was making after winning the cup not long ago. Don't know how far Montreal goes but their top 4 on Defense is solid, heavy and it plays to their strengths when they call less penalties in the playoffs. Price obviously is the wall behind all that, should be interesting what it produces with the extra rest they are getting now.
IWishIWasAPro
EOG Master
Soon as Tavares went down you kinda knew Montreal was going to make a run at this thing. Such a solid team led by a legend in net.
Bushay
NHL Expert
That decision would more than likely have been made by their idiot owner. Almost unimaginable the Caps were able to win a Cup with this ownership. Which was pretty much all Trotz's bench demeanor and expertise. In fairness, He did a great job in Nashville but never won anything. ]Detroits dynasty had a lot to do with that too] Ovechkin was God in Washington and uncoachable till Trotz came along and taught him it's a team game and they won't win till he changed. Trotz's teams are not dependent on one player driving the bus and most injuries can be overcome without the game plan changing much. Would it surprise many if he won again with this Islander team? Lee going down was a big blow though.
sharky99
EOG Dedicated
Ya Trotz's teams and philosophy are built for the playoffs, kinda of a plug an play system but your right the Lee injuries was bigger than I anticipated myself because I thought someone would fill his shoes on the power play and line over time but that really did not happen for awhile hence their struggles and dropping in the standings.
WildBill
2
I have always been most successful betting hockey going with the most illogical play. If it seems insane, it's probably a good bet. With that in mind give me the Avs -1.5 +188 at FanDuel tonight. Just like I could not explain why I took the Isles last night at +170 I'm just trusting my contrarian instincts here
sharky99
EOG Dedicated
I didn't know what to expect or who would win in Colorado in game 5 , figured the game would go to OT and it did so going to post this one for tomorrow. I posted +700 on Vegas down 2-0 earlier in the thread so riding that and a 16.5-1 cup futures. The value is on Colorado tomorrow but I don't think with all their playoff experience in recent years and advantages at home including a stellar home record Vegas let's this one slip by.
52 - Vegas Golden Knights -135 1 unit bookmaker
52 - Vegas Golden Knights -135 1 unit bookmaker
Bushay
NHL Expert
Have not made a play yet on this one but never like the home team in this scenario. Vegas will not be playing with the same desperation as the Avs tonight. It's lose and the golfing begins for the Avs while there's something in the back of each Vegas player's head we'll play as hard as we can tonight but should we lose there's always another game for us to up our intensity.
I was traveling and missed most of the last game but love the live betting on a better team should they get down early in a game. The juice is higher but the payoff should you be right makes up for it tenfold. Though normally I'll only do it when my team is at home in that situation.
Bushay
NHL Expert
Bruins and the Avs both in the same boat for their game 6's. Bruins a -135 fav while the Avs are plus money. Both in the same lose and go home scenario. Having a hard time wrapping my head around the reasoning for the discrepancy here. Are the Bruins' favorites based on perception? Seems the Isles with much better value here between the 2 games. What am I missing here?
X-Files
2
The Bruins have been favorites throughout the series, including games at NY. So nothing has changed there. Except they are ATM a slightly smaller fav than the closing lines in the previous 2 games on the road.
The Avs closed as a small dog at Vegas in the 2 games there and a presently are slightly more of a dog for tomorrow's game.
The discrepancy is, i assume, because the Avs are not considered as superior to Vegas as Boston is to NY.
Neveragain
EOG Dedicated
Bruins are favored because of game 5 shots on goal where they outshot Isles 44-19. Also Isles scored 3 PP goals which won’t likely repeat itself
tonight. VGK with home ice is priced about right. Av’s had the edge in play last night but couldn’t execute the results. Also AMF is in the zone.
sharky99
EOG Dedicated
That's good insight and reasoning Bushay
WildBill
2
Definitely agree with both points. I always prefer backing the team that's behind in the series. Part puck luck regression and part motivation. I just don't see the point in paying a premium for it much like you have seen for Boston in every game in the playoffs. They are a good team no doubt, but they got priced against Caps and now Isles like they are Tampa. They have an otherworldly first line, but beyond that they are just a solid but not great team.
Bushay
NHL Expert
I'm curious to what extent or if at all you follow the fancy stats? Those SOG are a little bit skewed imo.
WildBill
2
I pay almost no attention to SOG.
In regular season I pay a lot of attention to 5v5 xG, which I presume is what most knowledgeable hockey bettors look at as well so I don't think of it as a stat to use per see, I look for some mean reversion with it. Works reasonably well for both totals and sides, but often I prefer using it for totals because too often it just points to a big favorite coming off a bad game. In the playoffs I hardly look at it, situations and perceived line value is far more useful to me.
Corsi is good as long as you use it only for 5v5 close situations. Its not that valuable to use as a stat for a single game prediction, but it points to teams general trends. Good teams will always have slumps and bad teams will always have runs of good play. Corsi trends can really help you spot some unsustainable levels that point to a coming slump or uptrend and then you get a signal game it often proceeds a reversion trend. You'll see a team like Tampa or Colorado just destroy teams on Corsi way about 60% and you just wait it out, they eventually slow down on that and then you get some games where the pricing is up a lot on them because people see the recent trend, but they end up playing closer to 50/50 and you get great line value.
sharky99
EOG Dedicated
Thanks for your input and feedback ouch, We started the thread back in January mainly to encourage hockey feedback from the EOG community. We thought it could benefit the site and perhaps its a coincidence but it's been a profitable NHL season with some interesting futures still alive. It turned out to be therapeutic also as I've had multiple family health issues since the beginning of the year so thanks again to everyone for their contributions to the thread over the last several months.
winkyduck
TYVM Morgan William!!!
100% agree. I was at a Kings game where they got something like 40+ SOG and got shutout because almost all of the shots were from distance and the goalie wasn't screened so he could see all of them.
railbird
EOG Master
congrats on an amazing season
IWishIWasAPro
EOG Master
Guy at the Denver post....
"The Avs are teddy bears that glide through the regular season. But the playoffs are a whole different animal, a grizzly bear that Colorado must learn to wrestle."
"The Avs are teddy bears that glide through the regular season. But the playoffs are a whole different animal, a grizzly bear that Colorado must learn to wrestle."
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Awesome season Sharky.
Neveragain
EOG Dedicated
Web handicapper Rob Pizzola was a big fan of Colorado, holding some big futures tickets on the Avs.
VSIN contributer and hockey expert Andy MacNeil was a big fan of Minnesota and Boston.
These experts had models and experience and still lost.
Hockey might be the toughest sport of all for sharp gamblers to handicap.
VSIN contributer and hockey expert Andy MacNeil was a big fan of Minnesota and Boston.
These experts had models and experience and still lost.
Hockey might be the toughest sport of all for sharp gamblers to handicap.
X-Files
2
Hopefully Rob hedged when his team was up 2-0 in the series.
Likewise re Andy when Boston led 2-1.
WildBill
2
Pretty insane, no one in their right mind lays even -400 on an NHL playoff series. I'm waiting to see how the market settles, but I'll definitely take a small piece on Montreal here.
WildBill
2
Not really how you should think about it. Yes its difficult in a sense that luck and inferior teams often win these games and on occasion some series, but I don't think its the toughest sport for sharps to cap by any means. If you bet it seriously you just accept the volatility and randomness inherent in it through proper bet sizing and bankroll. Sharps win at hockey pretty regularly, they struggle to win much over time with the NFL, NBA, EPL and a few other leagues and sports.