Fezzik GOY

mr merlin

EOG Master
Typical lying tout..."oh yea, I made live in game bets to cut my losses way down, didn't lose that much" LOL.

Fezzik said he watched the game closely and placed several live wagers on Fairleigh Dickinson to help mitigate his losses. "Still took a bath on my preflop bets, but mitigated the damage actively managing it," he said.

After it was all over, Fezzik says he lost "about 20K on the game" but is undeterred and plans to bet a lot to win a little against another long shot in the coming weeks.
 

andyfezzik

EOG Addicted
Typical lying tout..."oh yea, I made live in game bets to cut my losses way down, didn't lose that much" LOL.

Fezzik said he watched the game closely and placed several live wagers on Fairleigh Dickinson to help mitigate his losses. "Still took a bath on my preflop bets, but mitigated the damage actively managing it," he said.

After it was all over, Fezzik says he lost "about 20K on the game" but is undeterred and plans to bet a lot to win a little against another long shot in the coming weeks.
Steve definitely did some live betting playbacks. He texted me some screen captures of his bets. I need to learn from his strategy was up 80% at one point on an $FRC (First Republic Bank) investment but had to hold for 2 days before I could sell and opted not to lock it in with some puts or short positions. It proceeded to plummet after the bailout was less than anticipated and I'm presently down about 40% on the investment. On the plus side looks like it's bouncing back today with Janet Yellen's latest banking backstop.
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
Interesting yes if Pinnacle was dealing -2700 that would definitely have given me pause. They usually deal an accurate line and attract a lot of large bets. What were they offering on point spread? If the spread was 23 like the other books then it seems -2700 ML would be most inaccurate.
Between 23-23.5. To be fair I'm not sure what they opened the ml but day of game it was -27xx and then close to post it was -32xx. The thing that is really interesting about that ml is that pinny general makes the big favs impossible to bet. ex: To make math easy lets asume pinny thinks something is 90% or fair price -1000. When they add a 3% hold to that fair price they do not distribute the vig 50/50. They distribute 2.7% of the hold to the fav and .3% to the dog making their market roughly -1270/+970. That way they keep the 3% theoretical hold on both sides. FWIW i think this is correct if it were a dice game whgere you know the exact odds however in sports gambling I think it's correct to distributee the vig more evenly to make it less likely that a bettor can make a + ev bet. I ramble.
 

Heim

EOG Master
Who knew a donkey move like this would make Fezzik relevant again?

Admit it was dumb, then throw some sharp buzz words in the mix to rehabilitate your cred.

Brilliant!
 

pro analyser

EOG Dedicated
Fezzick:My college game of the year goes Nov18th, Alabama at home vs Chattanooga. Only $100 for new subscribers. Im risking $100,000 to win$1 might as well take the free $1
 

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
how did steve get $40k in live betting action down? he must of been hammering between apps all during the 2h.

Also when did he realize it was time to hedge? When they tipped off?

There is absolutely no upside to being a capper that sells games to release 45-1 to your clients. The downside of trust and your credibility go way way down just for the one unit of profit you get to show on the sheet

if he wants to bet that himself and his partners. go ahead. but to sell it as a "value play"??????

plus he didn't come close to getting the best number on purdue.

this was a trainwreck moment for stevie.
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
how did steve get $40k in live betting action down? he must of been hammering between apps all during the 2h.

Also when did he realize it was time to hedge? When they tipped off?

There is absolutely no upside to being a capper that sells games to release 45-1 to your clients. The downside of trust and your credibility go way way down just for the one unit of profit you get to show on the sheet

if he wants to bet that himself and his partners. go ahead. but to sell it as a "value play"??????

plus he didn't come close to getting the best number on purdue.

this was a trainwreck moment for stevie.
Not saying he did but during tv tiemouts you can get that down in a couple of clicks at bookmaker live.
 

kane

EOG master
Dude gets the ball at midcourt and no one stops him from getting to the rim, they deserved to get beat, at the very least force a long jumper, really poor defense at the end
 

andyfezzik

EOG Addicted
Who knew a donkey move like this would make Fezzik relevant again?

Admit it was dumb, then throw some sharp buzz words in the mix to rehabilitate your cred.

Brilliant!
I'm shocked at how many engagements/views and how much press coverage the whole thing has generated. I'm sure there are lots of whales who dropped multiples of what Steve bet on that side who just quietly ate the loss and moved on.
 

andyfezzik

EOG Addicted
I chuckle a bit at the "win nothing" references. Plugging 1 to 45 payout and 99% odds of win into a Kelly Criterion calculator and assuming, notionally, a $500,000 bankroll the recommended bet amount at full Kelly would be $269,000 or 54% of bankroll. Obviously most sports bettors don't do full Kelly so if we go with half Kelly it would be $134,000 or a more conservative quarter Kelly would be $67,000. Obviously if the handicapper is convinced true odds are 99% to win and he's getting -4500 then an advantage player WOULD bet a fairly high proportion of bankroll on the play.

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pro analyser

EOG Dedicated
If your willing to risk 54% of your bankroll on one play, what if you had two plays that day. Bookmaker,pinnacle and five dimes said your estimate was wrong, and you were making a bad bet. I make bad bets all the time, but I am not will to risk a high percentage of my bankroll in case I'm wrong.
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
I chuckle a bit at the "win nothing" references. Plugging 1 to 45 payout and 99% odds of win into a Kelly Criterion calculator and assuming, notionally, a $500,000 bankroll the recommended bet amount at full Kelly would be $269,000 or 54% of bankroll. Obviously most sports bettors don't do full Kelly so if we go with half Kelly it would be $134,000 or a more conservative quarter Kelly would be $67,000. Obviously if the handicapper is convinced true odds are 99% to win and he's getting -4500 then an advantage player WOULD bet a fairly high proportion of bankroll on the play.

View attachment 7468436
Stop it.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
It's obvious Team A (FDU) was better than we all thought going into the NCAA. They came back to play FAU to a 1 possession game late. I'll give him credit for admitting his loss, but sometimes one has to admit when they f-ked up. And betting Purdue, a team noted for more chokes in the NCAA than any other team, at 1-45 odds cannot be justified. Let alone say one would do it again.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
If your willing to risk 54% of your bankroll on one play, what if you had two plays that day. Bookmaker,pinnacle and five dimes said your estimate was wrong, and you were making a bad bet. I make bad bets all the time, but I am not will to risk a high percentage of my bankroll in case I'm wrong.

If the events aren't overlapping and the first is lost, you reduce your bankroll accordingly. If overlapping, there are solutions/algorithms for the Kelly (or fractional Kelly) amount to bet with 2 or more simultaneous events.

The math is more complicated, but If both bets are full Kelly with 99% odds to win @-4500, approximately 24.8% of bankroll is risked per bet. For quarter Kelly, 14.5% of bankroll.
 
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texaswizzard

EOG Dedicated
I wouldn't pay $500.00 to bang Kelly in Vegas. I actually wouldn't pay $50.00 to bang Kelly In Vegas because just like you Andy she'd open her mouth and tell me what a great handicapper she is. Stop already Andy you lost the argument the first word you wrote.
 

andyfezzik

EOG Addicted
I wouldn't pay $500.00 to bang Kelly in Vegas. I actually wouldn't pay $50.00 to bang Kelly In Vegas because just like you Andy she'd open her mouth and tell me what a great handicapper she is. Stop already Andy you lost the argument the first word you wrote.
Go argue with Kelly about it.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
Go argue with Kelly about it.
It was a terrible bet and when it lost it became obvious to everyone. Justifying a terrible bet with meaningless math pulled out of thin air...it was 99%+ is utterly ridiculous.

Admitting you got something wrong will get someone far more respect than babbling nonsense about what should have and could have happened.
 

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
So Steve made a bet at circa at 45-1 when pinnacle had 27-1 on the same bet yet steve and andy believe 45-1 was a good bet?????

Just imagine that someone did this back in the years that Steve was a only a bettor at the old school forums he posted at and steve would have just ripped this bet apart.

Move forward 20 years and suddenly Steve is getting millions of views and appearances out of a bad bet.

When RJ heard how much viewership he was getting out of this situation you could almost hear RJ start to calculate all the free PR work that pregame was getting out of this. I was actually surprised that Randall didn't give him a pat on the back for losing this bet since he will make up for it in packages very soon.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
The problem with these dumb -4500 bets is you're not going to make a "normal" wager, if you only lost your regular wager( a few hundred bucks or whatever) it would be no big deal. It would still be stupid but it wouldn't really matter because losing bets is common and expected.

The nature of the odds means you're going to bet far more than normal - risk far more than normal, all to chase a normal return.
 

railbird

EOG Master
So Steve made a bet at circa at 45-1 when pinnacle had 27-1 on the same bet yet steve and andy believe 45-1 was a good bet?????

Just imagine that someone did this back in the years that Steve was a only a bettor at the old school forums he posted at and steve would have just ripped this bet apart.

Move forward 20 years and suddenly Steve is getting millions of views and appearances out of a bad bet.

When RJ heard how much viewership he was getting out of this situation you could almost hear RJ start to calculate all the free PR work that pregame was getting out of this. I was actually surprised that Randall didn't give him a pat on the back for losing this bet since he will make up for it in packages very soon.
1/27 would have been a horrendous bet too. never lay -4500 in month of march, especially with a team that reached its ceiling back in january vs an improving team with A+ confidence who just won by 30
 

pro analyser

EOG Dedicated
The only thing I agree with fezz is that there is more value with the fav, than the dog. That said, if I ever bet a ml fav I would risk about half as much on the extra juice, and I would always check bookmaker, pinn, and 5d rj where the true price is somewhere in between. Example 40-20 means 30-1 is ok, not taking the worst of it.
 

Heim

EOG Master
I sense Fezzik is on Dr. Bob tonight. Michigan St....loser. UCLA ?

Just for the record Dr. Bob is 1-8 L9 on VSIN.
 

texaswizzard

EOG Dedicated
Andy - You were talking full Kelly. I was joking about not wanting anything to do with anything with the name Kelly. You missed the joke.
 

Heim

EOG Master
Dr. Bob now 1-10 L11. Really no longer a factor. He said he's evolved with the times re his model, however when he says numbers right for Michigan St and UCLA but they meet his 'tourney profile'...wtf does that mean?

I'm used to be his biggest fan. Today he says when he couldn't come on the other day (VSIN) he went 6-1. Same tout bs from a guy who still wants to stay relevant.
 

texaswizzard

EOG Dedicated
Dr Bob is now referred to by many people now as Dr "Rob". The guy isn't winning anymore. I've tracked his plays and he's negative units the last couple years no matter what tout BS he spews.
 

texaswizzard

EOG Dedicated
Nice 5.5 units down the drain. Neither bet ever had a chance. Fezzik couldn't name 10 players in the league and he's betting this crap. He deserves all the crap people give him. The guy can't win betting sides or totals in any sport.
 

Heim

EOG Master
Love this NHL value play today:

ANALYSIS​

2* PROP

Grand Salami HOME TEAMS -365 2 stars

LOVE this bet.

Home Teams should dominate today. This MONEYLINE is way short.




Lol at -365 for hockey from a football champ. Fezzik scrambling for anything positive for a unit.
 
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