514 Denver -9 -104
To open the contest, and given the skin pickens in bases without favorable lines, I get why most might not agree with me as this being a popular play as well as given the reputation for liking favorites. However, I don't stand as confident as I normally would with this play, and as I mentioned previously the quality with just 7 games in baseball limits my choices.
11 days off for Denver since sweeping the Lakers means that some might expect the rust factor to doom Denver. At the same time Miami's confidence is rolling with momentum bring the second 8 seed to play for an NBA title. Being the smaller team and not one to click as soundly as Denver's offense, Jimmy B and Bam face a much tougher task this time around against the likes of 2 time MVP in Nikoka Jokic, the most versatile player in the NBA. and Janal Murray, who proved quite the sharpshooter in quick flurries. Jokic is putting up triple doubles like consuming hot cakes, and is a dominating and intriguing defensive presence. The latter on defense may not be said for Murray, but he is quite the benefit and recipient when he's hitting his shot and when he plays the 2 man game with the 7 foot Jokic. The nucleus with defense comes from Porter Jr, Gordon, and given the opportunity, Ben Brown who can also score the ball, rebound, and possess a post and perimeter presence as alternatives.
Butler, Adebayo, and the likes of Martin and Vincent are going to have to hit their open shots and face the inside presence of Jokic attacking the basket. Miami doesn't prefer to be sped up, but they will be forced to given Denver's tempo. Spolstera will look to play more half court, but Malone will have his guys maintain the game plan to run in transition and fire away if open on the perimeter. Jokic can burn you from outside as well as penetration to the basket, as well as get bunches of chances at the charity stripe. Murray can do the same easily when his jumper is falling. Denver hadn't had to play from behind much, so if they get the advantage early, they become that much more difficult to beat. Murray's defense however is fairly subpar, so if the Heat can take advantage with their guys hitting their shots free of Jokic, they will hang around the large number. However, Denver has so many weapons especially if they can get out to a big lead.
Miami has to be gassed given all the effort it took to out Boston, who refused to lay down down 0-3. The Heat finished second in the league in defense allowing 'only' 107 4 ppg, but face an even more potent offense in Denver. Jokic averaged a triple double and Murray scored nearly 33 ppg against the Lakers, quite the feat. My original prediction this series was Denver in 6, and maybe even 5 if Miami runs out of steam. Not to say Miami wouldn't be competitive, but will face a much more tougher challenge taking out the Nuggets tonight and their intangibles in the starting lineup and off the bench. Laying 9 is tough, but Denver gets it done with their tenacious offense in the high altitude.
