NFL Week 4: Plays

[buffettgambler]

Here is my card for week 4. I am also betting the Seahawks plus 3.5, and will add a write up sometime tommorrow before the game starts. Good luck..

Chargers @ Ravens
Play: Ravens +3
Comment:
Pros:
Note: I posted the Ravens as a play shortly after the opening line came out at +3 as I felt that the spread would go down from there.

Both teams are coming into this game yet to suffer a loss. The Chargers dominated their first two opponents, but they happened to be arguably the worst two teams in the league. The Ravens have won their first three games, and although the level of their competition can be construed as higher, they have yet to play a team that has achieved a win this year as well. It is safe to say that this will be both teams first real test. It is also safe to say that these two teams might be the hardest teams to run against, leading me to believe that the quarterback will have an influential bearing on the outcome of this game. That advantage clearly goes to the proven and more experienced McNair.

Although I feel that Rivers is a quarterback with a lot of upside potential and is already better than about half the starting quarterbacks in the league right now, he simply is just not ready to play this type of game on the road. In the first two games he has had the luxury of having Tomlinson and his defense bail him out, and allow him to play the supplemental quarterback role. However, going up against the number one ranked run defense in the league, his role should certainly change. The Chargers would love to establish a running game early in this game to take the pressure off of Rivers and quiet the crowd. Although they have the best running back in football, he has been known to get shutdown in certain types of games, and this has one of those types of games written all over it. Expect the Ravens to throw a lot of complex and shifting eight and nine man fronts to dare Rivers to beat him with his arm. The Ravens already have one of the hardest front sevens in football to run against, and when they decide to stack the box, they are nearly impossible to run against, even for a running back as talented as Tomlinson. With the 8 man box, the lineman?s job will be to hold up the Chargers blockers to free up space for their linebackers to shoot the gaps before the running play gets developed. This will prevent Tomlinson from consistently hitting the higher gear, and disrupt his running plays early. The Ravens line has done an excellent job in this role during the first three games, and the Ravens have consistently shut down the opponents running game without having to stack the box. Even if the Chargers running game is not effective, they will be reluctant to abandon it, as they just don?t have the confidence in Rivers yet. This should force them into more third and longs and make the Chargers have to run inefficient plays. On passing situations, the Ravens will utilize a lot of exotic blitzes to confuse Rivers and force him into potential turnover mistakes. The Chargers would like to use a lot of short passing plays to counter the dominant pass rush the Ravens poses, however, chipping away yards via the passing game is just not something that is easily done against the Ravens. Last year, Gates was a perfect antidote for Brees to counter the pass rush, as he was able to provide him as open target on three step drop back passes. Although one would assume that would be the case for Rivers as well, there just doesn?t seem yet to be chemistry between the two players, as he did not play a big role in either of the first two games, and has only managed six catches. He will also be matched up against the best safety in the league, which might be the only safety that can handle him in one on one coverage, while the Ravens can certainly limit Gates production with doubling him with underneath linebacker coverage. With the Chargers two biggest weapons more than likely contained, the Chargers will more than likely have to look elsewhere for offensive production. However, the Chargers don?t have a solid wide receiver group, and is a finesse group that is most vulnerable against aggressive corners that use a lot of press coverage schemes. Mcallister is one of the best and most physical corners in the league who should have no problem containing McCardell. McCardell is prone to getting slow starts off the line when jammed, something McCallister does well. Mcallister also has the speed to catch up with McCardell after the press coverage. He should have no problem employing single coverage against him the entire game. The same could be said for Rolle who matches up well with an undersized Parker. This will allow the Ravens safeties to concentrate more in the middle of the field and keep their attention on Tomlinson and Gates. The Ravens have more playmakers on defense compared to any other defense in the league. They are usually a nightmare for inexperienced quarterbacks, especially when playing at home. Don?t be surprised if they are able to force Rivers into some costly turnovers, and potentially wind up in the end zone as well.

There is no denying the talent level of the Chargers defense as well, but they do have some holes in their defense that can be attacked, while the Ravens have more offensive weapons, a better balanced offense, and a more experienced quarterback that is less prone to making mistakes in a game in which mistakes should be magnified. The Chargers are one of the hardest teams to run against, and are especially difficult because of their 3-4 alignment and their athletic linebackers that make it hard to run off tackle, making it troubling for speedier backs to operate against. However, the Ravens use a grind it out running game that isn?t designed to pick up the big yardage, rather utilized to wear down the opposing defense and allow for a balanced offensive attack. Expect them to use Lewis to run straight at the defense, forcing their undersized linebacker to have to make head point tackles. This power running tactic should allow the Ravens to be able to grind out tough yards, and allow McNair to operate in more manageable third down situations. With the inexperience at safety, the inconsistent play of their cornerbacks, and the multiple offensive weapons the Ravens have in their passing game, it will also allow Lewis to be able to run against seven man fronts, where he is much more dangerous. Unlike the Chargers, the Ravens have some compelling match ups in their passing game that they could take advantage of. The Chargers might have to play with two backup safeties that lack experience. This is not something you want against the Ravens passing game and against McNair, as he heavily relies on inner hash passing plays that are highly dependent on the quality of play of the opposition?s safeties. He also has a top three receiving tight end that can certainly take advantage of the inexperience the Chargers have at safety, and provide McNair with a solid outlet option to counter the Chargers top tier pass rush. Mason has really developed chemistry with McNair already. Although he will more than likely have the Chargers best corner, Jammer, on him throughout the game, this is appears to be a good match up for him. Jammer is still a raw cornerback that could have match up problems with the better route runners in the league like Mason. The cornerback depth is lacking on the Chargers as well, which should provide McNair receiving options across the field. McNair is most comfortable with short drop passing schemes that should be able to offset the pass rush of the Chargers. Their pass rush in the first two games helped hide the suspect secondary which the Chargers pose. The majority of the pass rush has been heavily dependent on Marriman, who is one of the biggest defensive forces in football. Although Ogden has lost a step in his game, he is still one of the best tackles in the league, and should help contain Marriman. Expect a better balanced attack from the Ravens offense. It is also an offense that is less prone to making mistakes. They are built for physical games such as this, and just got finished playing a defense that uses a 3-4 alignment, so they should be better prepared to know what to expect from the Chargers.

Home field advantage in this game is also magnified. The Ravens are quickly becoming one of the hardest teams to beat at home, and even in last years down and out season, was a difficult challenge for most teams in their own backyard. The crowd should also be a problem for Rivers.

Cons:
Coming off bye weeks, teams have the hardest time adjusting to the speed of the game. The physicality part of the game is often helped by an extra week of rest. This makes teams like the Falcons and Colts dangerous teams to play coming off bye weeks, and teams like the Ravens and ideal team to play. In a game which should be decided in the trenches and establishing a ground game, the Chargers have a big offensive line and best running back in the league to fall back on. Even if the Ravens are the hardest team in the league to run against, you can never underestimate the potential of Tomlinson. The Ravens have a very complex defense that is designed to confuse quarterbacks. Having two weeks to prepare for this defense is a nice embedded asset for a quarterback. Lewis is a little banged up, and running room should be hard to find for him. Lewis has always had problems running against stacked boxes, as it allowed penetration before hitting a second gear. Although the Chargers are more than likely going to rely on their front seven to stop Lewis, it is a top tier front seven that is built to prevent running backs from getting their running play developed. McNair looked out of sync last week, and his accuracy was a bit off. Heap is banged up, and his effectiveness is a question mark. The Ravens key to success is to pressure Rivers. Suggs is a premier pass rusher who has a big advantage of the rookie left tackle on the Chargers. However, he too is fighting an injury, and might not be able to play in Sunday?s game.

Conclusion:
This game has the makings of a playoff type game. Both teams are as physical as they come and have the makings of a close game. Home field advantage, big plays on defense, and experience at quarterback should prove to big advantages favoring the Chargers. Simply put, wrong team favored. In my opinion, the Ravens should win this game outright.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: NFL Week 4: Plays

Vikings @ Bills
Play: Vikings Pick
Comment:
Pros:
Note: I recorded this as a bet last Sunday when the line came out; as I anticipated more money on the Vikings would have them close as a favorite. Guessing wrong cost me a point.

This match consists of two teams that are coming off losses in very winnable games. The Bills moved the ball at ease against the Jets last week, but costly turnovers forced them to lose their home opener. The Vikings had their big game against the Bears all but won until a costly fumble late into the fourth quarter gave the Bears a second chance to win the game, and they took advantage of it. Without many game breaking players in this game, it appears to be a game that should be won by the team who wins the battle in the trenches and the team with the quarterback less prone to making a costly mistake. Both advantages go to the Vikings.

The Vikings just got finished playing three games against three of the best defenses in the NFC. Although they were not able to put a lot of points on the board in those games, they proved more than capable of moving the ball with a balanced offensive attack, and aside from that late fourth quarter fumble against the Bears, the Vikings have done a good job protecting the football against defenses designed to create turnovers. On Sunday, they will get their chance to be able to prove their offensive capabilities against fast defense that has shown some flashes of brilliance, but is still a young, raw defense that has weak spots that can be exploited. The Vikings finally have a solid running back and offensive coordinator that is able to keep the Vikings offense balanced and hard to stop on the ground. They have one of the best offensive lines on the left side, allowing Taylor to have a lot of open space on this side of the field. Expect the Vikings to try to establish a running game on this side of the field early on, to prevent the Bills aggressive pass rush from flowing upstream on an immobile Johnson. The Bills have an undersized front seven that is prone to being worn down by a power running game in which the Vikings offense likes to impose. Their offensive line is one of the biggest in football, which should allow them to have their way with the Bills lineman. Schobel is an underrated pass rusher while Crowell has been good defending the pass. However, both these players have struggled against the run, making the Vikings left side running game to have a big advantage. Spikes, the Bills best defensive players, is still hampered by a hamstring injury, and will be a game time decision. If he is able to play, his playing time and effectiveness should be limited. A solid running game should keep the Bills defense on their heals, and open up things in the Vikings passing game. Johnson has done a good job handling top tier pass rushes, and has been utilizing a lot of quick passing schemes to get the ball out quickly. The Bills have two rookie safeties in their starting lineup. Although they have been playing well of late, they should be prone to making mental mistakes against Johnson?s tactics. He is one of the best quarterbacks in football in fooling safeties and leading them to believe he is passing somewhere he really isn?t. He was able to fool the Redskins young safeties on a few occasions on opening night, and would not be surprised if his savvy style will lead to some rookie mistakes in the Bills defense as well. The Bills have one of the best cornerback tandems in football, so teams that heavily rely on their two starting receivers in their passing game are often vulnerable going up against the Bills. However, Johnson is also one of the best quarterbacks at spreading the ball around, and has some passing advantages that he could take advantage of aside from his two starting receivers. Wiggins is one of the best receiving tight ends in the game, and has a clear cut advantage going up against any of the Bills linebackers or rookie safeties. Although he has not been much involved in the Vikings offense so far this season, Johnson has always utilized his tight ends well, and should be able to take advantage of this mismatch. The Bills are once again having trouble finding a nickel back that can cover this year. Expect the Vikings to counter by using a lot of three receiving sets to get the Bills nickel back Greer on the field as much as possible. The Vikings will more than likely use Williamson in the slot to get the big mismatch against Greer, and test the Bills secondary down field with some deep passes. With a newfound running game, a savvy veteran quarterback, and offensive mastermind in Childress, the Vikings should have no problem moving the ball against this young Bills defense that is most prone to crumble against the mental aspect of the game, not the physical aspect.

Although the Bills offense showed a lot of promise against the Jets, I wouldn?t be surprised to see them have their hands full against one of the more underrated defenses in the league right now. Tomlin is a disciple of Kiffen, who excels in giving young quarterbacks fits with a lot of different looks and pre snap movements. Expect Tomlin to do exactly this with Losman, who has consistently shown his youth and vulnerability this year with a few untimely turnovers that has prevented the Bills from being 3-0 so far this year. Expect the Vikings to constantly blitz Losman from various angles. They have done a good job putting pressure on all three quarterbacks they have faced this year, and have also proven more than capable of confusing the younger quarterback they faced last week when Grossman could have easily thrown four interceptions. The Vikings also have a solid secondary that should match up well against the Bills receivers, as they are able to play close to the line and prevent the screen passes that the Bills were able to capitalize on last week against the Jets. The Bills would love to establish a running game to take the pressure off of Losman and prevent Timlin from having his way with him. There is no denying that McGahee looks better now than he ever did as a pro, but should have his hands full against a run defense that is quietly becoming one of the best in the league. The Vikings are coming off a game in which they allowed the Bears to only average two yards per running play. Jones constantly attempted to run to the outside and avoid the massive tackle combination of the Williams, but found it equally as hard to attack the Vikings perimeter. McGahee should also have a difficult time, as he is a running back that likes to wait for the play to develop, while the Vikings linebackers have done a solid job shooting running gaps before the play develops. The Vikings defense has a big advantage in defending the A and B gap run the Bills will often employ. The Bills offensive line is weak in the middle, where that his the heart and sole of the Vikings defense. There might not be a tackle playing as well as Pat Williams right now, who has a big advantage going up against Fowler. Don?t expect the Bills to move the ball nearly as effective as they did against the Jets. The effective running game last week took much needed pressure off of Losman while the run after the catch helped pad his stats. With McGahee having much more trouble getting things going this week, more pressure will be on Losman to making things happen with his arm. Although he has shown some glimpses of potential, until he starts showing that he can avoid the costly turnover, he will not prove to be an ideal match up going up against Timlin?s game plan.

This is also a good week to play the Bills as they are a bit deflated after losing their home opener in the fashion that they did. They are also coming off three division games, and might not be able to play with the same intensity that they did in those games, now that they have to play an out of conference team.

Cons:
Losman is moving the ball much better than I expected this year. He was always an athletic quarterback, but has now shown more poise, touch and blitz pick up recognition. McGahee has also improved a lot in the off season, as he is running with much more intensity, and shedding 15 pounds allows him to better attack the perimeters where the Vikings are most vulnerable. The Vikings offense has to find ways to score points, as it is just too hard to win on the road when unable to finish off drives. That might be easier said than done, as they don?t really have an ideal red zone threat. The Vikings right side of the line has struggled more than anticipated, making them vulnerable to overload blitzes on that side. The Bills starting corners have the advantage over the two Vikings starting receivers, which makes Johnson?s ability to trick and get the rookie safeties out of position less important. The Vikings just got finished playing three very physical games against tough NFC teams. All the games went down to the wire and took a lot of emotion out of the team as well. One has to wonder how much is left in their tank to travel on the road to play a team that has been underestimated twice this season already.

Conclusion:
Simply put, the Bills are not built to win the close games right now. They lack experience in their offense, have been mistake prone in key situations, and don?t have a player that can take over the game. The coaching staff is new and still getting settled in, while their defense showed some attackable holes last week. Until they can show capable of winning the close games, I will gladly bet against them in a game which has the makings of a down to the wire game. The Vikings have a much more experienced team that has won two close games against quality teams already. Johnson?s experience over Losman should be the difference, as one mistake could be the difference.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: NFL Week 4: Plays

Dolphins @ Texans
Play: Over 40.5
Comment:
Pros:
The Dolphins continue to vastly underachieve this year, as they are coming off a home win in which they were outplayed by the worst team in football. Cullpepper continues to play like a rookie, handcuffing an offense with a ton of potential. However, it should be just a matter of time until the Dolphins offense plays up to their capabilities. Will it be this week against the worst defense in football?

The Texans also continue to underachieve, as they have started the season losing all three games that they were thoroughly dominated in. Their offense has shown some glimpse of potential, but has been masked by a defense that is playing as poorly as any in football. Will this be the game in which their defense finally steps things up now that they get to face a struggling offense?

The key variable in this game, in my opinion, is trying to decipher what struggling unit between the Dolphins offense and Texans defense will raise their level of play in this game. In my opinion, more signs clearly point in favor of the Dolphins offense. The Texans just got finished playing an offense that was in a very similar state as the Dolphins right now when they played the Redskins last week. The Redskins were an offense that was slow out of the gates in large part due to a struggling quarterback, but had a ton of talent on offense. The Texans brought out the best in the Redskins offense, and allowed Brunell a perfect opportunity to get things back on track. Don?t be surprised if the same thing happens this week with Culpepper and the Dolphins. The Redskins were able to establish a running game early on to take the pressure off of Brunell and allow him to have manageable third down situations to pass in. Expect the Dolphins to do the same thing against this 29th ranked Texans run defense that is still ranked in the bottom of the league even with playing the two most pass happy offenses in their first two games of the season. Brown is one of the better running backs in the league, but has had a tough time getting anything going against the constant stacked boxes he has been up against. With the mismatch problems the Texans have in their secondary, they will not have the luxury of doing the same thing the other teams that have faced the Dolphins did against Brown. Brown is a power back that is at his best against teams that lack tackling skills. This is the ideal match up for him, as there is no other team in the league right now tackling as poorly as the Texans. Although the Dolphins offensive line has been struggling in run blocking situations, they are one of the biggest in the league, and should have their way with the undersized front seven. Brown is at his best attacking the A and B gaps, and should be effective in setting up manageable conversions for Culpepper in the passing game. Brown also has the speed to attack the perimeters where the Texans are most vulnerable. The Texans have also allowed a lot of big runs on the ground, which makes a solid running game not necessarily time consuming. The Texans have been caught up in a cath-22 defending the pass. They lack the ideal pass rush to not allow the quarterback all day in the pocket. This has forced them to have to send a variety of blitz packages in order to force the ball out of the quarterback?s hands. However, their secondary has really lacked coverage skills, allowing the opposing receivers to get open early on in the play, offsetting the benefits of blitzing. The Texans would love to blitz Cullpepper, as he has not managed pressure well, but the Dolphins have too many mismatches with their receiving options if left alone in single coverage. Either way, the Dolphins have the clear cut advantage when passing the ball against this last ranked Texans pass defense, which should finally allow Culpepper to get things going this season. All the blame can not be put on Culpepper, as he has not been allowed to have time in this pocket due to his offensive lines poor play. This should finally be the game in which he is given time, while Chambers, Walker, and Booker all have mismatches against their counterparts. This should also finally be the game in which McMicheal showcases his talent, as the Texans have been one of the worst teams in football over the years covering tight ends, and leaving open seams down the field. Don?t be surprised if the Dolphins get more aggressive with their play calling, now that Culpepper will have time to throw downfield and use his strong arm and receiver?s size. The bottom line is the Dolphins have a ton of talent with their offensive skill positions. Culpeppers rust and the poor play of their offensive line have not allowed the Dolphins to show their talent. This should be the game in which Culpepper and his line get settled in, and a potential big game for their offense appears to be in the cards for them.

Believe it or not, Carr is having a very solid year, while the Texans passing game is something to not take lightly. If it weren?t for some untimely fumbles by Carr, this offense would have put up a lot more points than they have in their first three games. This is an ideal match for the Texans offense, as their strengths are up against the Dolphins weaknesses on defense. Even though the Dolphins have faced some inferior passing games to start the season, (Batch, Losman and Collins), they still have had problems in coverage, and have been vulnerable to allowing the big play. Johnson and Moulds are one of the better receiving tandems in the league, and are at their best attacking the second and third level of the defense, where the Dolphins corners are most vulnerable. Expect the Texans to come out aggressive from the onset and test their luck against this suspect secondary. Carr is prone to making mistakes, and his offensive line is prone to not giving him time in the pocket. However, the Dolphins have only managed to get two interceptions against those three quarterbacks, and have been having trouble putting pressure on the opposing quarterback as well. Carr should be more settled in the pocket this week compared to the first three weeks against defenses that could really pressure a quarterback with the Eagles, Redskins and Colts. Don?t expect the Texans to do a lot of running in this game, but just enough to keep the Dolphins from teeing off on Carr. The Dolphins strong suit is defending the run, while the Texans line has really struggled creating holes for their running backs. Dayne will most be used to set up more manageable third downs for Carr, which should lead to less time being taken off the clock during the Texans drives. I am not sure what to expect out of the Texans offense. They do have some holes to exploit, but have lacked consistency. What I do expect is too see a lot of passing plays, attempts downfield, and some potential turnovers that set up scoring opportunities for the Dolphins offense- all variables that favor the over.

Cons:
Betting an over with two offenses that have had trouble finding the end zone does have its obvious risks. Both teams have the ability to move the ball well in this game, but both have quarterbacks that are mistake prone, and vulnerable to creating turnovers in scoring position. This has happened to both on several occasions on the better drives for the offenses in a couple of games. The Dolphins install a power running game that when effective grinds out yards and eats up clock. This has all the makings of a good game for Brown, but that might mean 30 carries for 120 yards, not something you want for an over. Both defenses have been underachieving a bit, and should get better from here on out. The return of Daniels in the Dolphins secondary should make it harder for teams to attack downfield against them. Until Culpepper proves he warrants being on the field, he can single handily kill an over bet.

Conclusion:
I am going to speculate that the Dolphins offense finally turns things around now that they are up against the worst defense in football. If they are able to play to form, they should be too much to handle for the Texans defense. The Texans are at their best when passing the ball, while the Dolphins continue to struggle defending the pass no matter how good of a quarterback they face. This will be their toughest challenge to date. Although neither offense has been able to put up a lot of points on the board, this appears to be an ideal time for both units to reverse their fortunes. I am on the over in this game.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: NFL Week 4: Plays

Cardinals @ Falcons
Play: Over 40.5
Comment:
Pros:
The Cardinals are coming off an embarrassing home loss in which Warner literally gave away. There offensive continues to the move the ball well, but continues to struggle scoring points, as Warner?s proneness to give the ball away has prevented the Cardinals from finishing off promising drives. Their defense continues to struggle as well, as teams have proven capable of running and passing effectively against them. The Falcons are also coming off an embarrassing loss- the only difference is the entire world saw them get dominated on Monday Night against the Saints. Vick once again showed his tendency to go into a shell in big games, while their defense seemed to succumb to the entire event. One thing is for sure, both offenses will be eager to get the bad taste out of their month that was left after last week?s game.

You could pretty much throw away last weeks game when judging the Falcons offense, as they simply did not show up in that event. They still hold the most dangerous running game in football, a running game that is deadly on their home turf. Expect them to run early and often against this Cardinals run defense that showed a lot of problems last week, and simply does not match up well against the Falcons running style. The Cardinals have a fast and aggressive front 8 that lacks tackling skills and are prone to struggle against zone blocking schemes, as they are raw and are prone to overusing. This should be a real problem for them this week, as they are up against the best zone blocking line in football right now, and the best cutback runner in the game as well. The Cardinals allowed a few big runs to Jackson last week, as their front four did a poor job staying in their lanes, as they consistently over pursued leaving their linebackers having to shed second level blocks. The Falcons running style will eat the Cardinals alive if they continue to approach the run in the fashion they have been doing. The Cardinals will also be forced to have to stack the box with Wilson, leaving their secondary vulnerable to the pass. The Cardinals corners really struggled last week defending the Rams receivers, and the lack of confidence they had in their corners prevented them from playing close up to the line and jamming the Rams receivers. This does not bode well for the Cardinals, as press coverage has given the Falcons receivers problems in the past. The stacked box should open up plays downfield for the Falcons receivers. With Wilson playing closer to the line, Crumpler should have an advantage finding seams downfield in the inner hash area where he is at his best. Expect him to be primed to have a big game as he will want to overcome the embarrassing performance in which he put forth last week. The Falcons should also be more aggressive this week as they will want to make a statement to the league that last week was more of an anomaly than anything else. The Cardinals corners have done a poor job defending the second and third level passing game, where that is the part of the field in which the Falcons receivers are at their best. This should allow the Falcons to have some big play opportunities throughout the game. The Falcons will also use a lot of three receiver sets where they could have Jenkins, White and Lelie on the field at the same time, and have the Cardinals struggling nickel back on the field as much as possible as well. Don?t be surprised to see Vick have a big game on the ground as well. He is able to find his running lanes against defenses that don?t hold their position on the field and are prone to over pursuing. As mentioned, this has been a problem for the undisciplined Cardinals defense in the first three games. The bottom line is to expect an angry Falcons offense to have a good spot to make a statement in this game. Both their style of running game as well as their passing game matches up well against the Cardinals defense, which should allow them to be better balanced and have a chance to make big plays downfield as well.

This is a big game for the Cardinals offense as well, as the entire off season they were highly touted as one of the best offenses in the league, but during the regular season, they have shown nothing to warrant such a label. However, there is no denying their talent, and although they might not have the best match up to showcase it against the Falcons defense, their offense matched up against the Falcons defense does favor the over regardless. As mentioned last week, there is not a quarterback in football that is more prone to making mistakes than Warner. It just so happens that the majority of his mistakes this year have occurred with the Cardinals in field position, which has hampered over bettors in his game so far. With that said, although his turnovers appear to be sustainable, where they occur does not. Going up against one of the best defenses in the league at creating turnovers leads me to believe Warner is in for another mistake field game. His offensive line has done a poor job protecting him, which has lead to a lot of forced balls, sacks and fumbles. Expect this to be the case again this week, as he is up against one of the better teams in getting to the quarterback, which is expected to be even better now that Hartwell is more than likely going to return this week. The Cardinals would like to establish a running game to prevent the pass rush from teeing off on Warner and the get the crowd quieter as well. However, even with the Cardinals line back healthy, this more than likely won?t happen. The Cardinals offensive line struggled again last week against a sub par front seven of the Rams, preventing James from getting anything going on the ground. The Cardinals have really have had problems creating A and B gap holes for James, while the Falcons interior run defense has improved a lot this year. This leads me to believe that their interior running game will once again have problems this week. This will force them to have to try to attack the perimeters. The return of Hartwell as the Falcons middle linebacker should allow Brooking to return to his real position, which should make it a lot harder to run against the Falcons on the edges. Although a lack of running game can be detrimental to an over, I do not feel that this is the case for the Cardinals. This will force them to stick to their bread and butter and utilize the best receiving tandem in football. Although the Falcons have an above average secondary, they are at their worst defending the second and third level passing areas of teams. This should allow the Cardinals passing game to have the advantage on the more aggressive passing plays, forcing them to have to move the bal in bunches. Whether this game plans is effective or not, it should favor the over, as it should keep the Cardinals drives from eating up a lot of clock. It will also make Warner more prone to mistakes that could allow the Falcons defense to end up in the end zone.

Cons:
Betting overs in Cardinals games does have their risks as their offense appears to be ?fools gold? right now. They could move the ball well, and have playmakers, but they just can?t score touchdowns. Don?t be surprised if their red zone offense continues to struggle, as James has not been able to get anything going on the ground inside the 10, while the lack of confidence in Warner might prevent them from trying to score via the passing game. The Falcons have also struggled scoring touchdowns, as their red zone offense continues to be one of the worst in football. They much like the Cardinals could move the ball well, but once they get inside the 10, seem lost. It might be prudent to wait for them to improve their red zone offense before taking chances on overs with these teams involved.

Conclusion:
Hungry teams usually end up being more aggressive and less prone to let up late in the game. Both these offenses are hungry after getting embarrassed last week. Expect the Falcons offense to bounce back in an impressive way, as both their running game and passing game matches up well against the Cardinals overaggressive defense. Although it?s hard to know what to expect out of Warner and the Cardinals offense, what I do expect that their game plan to match up well with an over. Expect both offenses to improve this week, and see 20 points from both units. I am taking my chances on the over in this game as well.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: NFL Week 4: Plays

Colts @ Jets
Play: Colts -8
Comment:
Pros:
With a win against the Jaguars last week, the Colts have now started the season 3-0, making for another bid for that elusive undefeated season. All appears well for the Colts, or does it? Digging deeper into their season, they were outplayed in two of their first three games, and have shown some holes in their defense that they did not show this time last year. Are the Colts merely a shell of what they were last year?

The Jets have quietly started the season with a 2-1 record. With the poor play of the Patriots and Dolphins, there are some that are thinking that the Jets might make a division title push this season. However, digging deeper into their season, they have been far from impressive as well. They needed a last minute score against the worst team in football on opening day, were outplayed and proved incapable of hanging with the contenders in week 2 against the Patriots, and are coming off a road win against a sub par Bills team that dominated them on both sides of the ball. Will the Jets be able to hang with an elite team like the Colts?

In order to beat or cover against the Colts you have to be able run against them and keep Manning on the sidelines. The Jaguars were able to do that for the entire first half last week, but once their running game fell short, so did their entire team. Unfortunately for the Jets, they have the worst running game in the league right now, as they have only managed 2 and half yards per carry. The Colts changed their defensive strategy in the second half, as their front tried to tie up lineman and allow their linebackers and defensive backs to flow freely to the ball. This prevented the cutback and counter run the Jaguars successfully employed in the first half to become an ineffective second half run. However, the best way to attack the Colts overaggressive defense is to be patient and employing running plays that allow the Colts defenders to over pursue. Having said that, the Jets lack a zone blocking scheme which allows Barlow to find holes and react, a role that he was most comfortable in with the Niners. The Jets running style is to run straight at the defensive front, something that Barlow has struggled doing effectively throughout his career. Simply put, don?t expect the Jets running game to be nearly as effective as the Jaguars and Giants, putting them more in a role that the Texans were forced to use against the Colts in week 2. The Colts pass defense is also at their best defending first level passes, while Pennington is most comfortable using a west coast passing scheme that chips away yards with short passes. Both Harper and David like to use press coverage which should make it hard for the Jets receivers to create separation early in the play. Although there is no denying the fact that the Colts defense gives up their fair share of yards, they have employed a bend-don?t break defense as good as any, as they are still one of the hardest defenses in the league to score against. Pennington is not a quarterback equipped for a shootout, a role he might be forced in the Jets defense continues to struggle in the manner that they have so far this season. Don?t be surprised to see Freeney and the Colts solid pass rush give a struggling line and immobile quarterback fits throughout the game, especially in they are forced into a one dimensional passing game.

The Jets defense has really struggled defending the pass, which is not a deficiency you want going up against Manning. Last week Manning had his fair share of problems as the Jaguars pass rush prevented him from getting in any sort of a rhythm. Expect him to have much more time in the pocket this week to be able to exploit the mismatches the Colts receivers have going up against the Jets suspect secondary. The Colts have used a lot of two tight end sets that have forced the opposing secondary to leave their cornerbacks in isolation against Wayne and Harrison. Dyson and Miller lack the coverage skills to consistently hang with these two receivers, which should provide the Colts with big play opportunity. The Colts offensive line has done a good overall job protecting Manning, and should have no problem continuing this trend this week. What they have struggled doing is creating holes for their running backs. However, the Jets have an undersized front seven that has shown vulnerability defending the run. They really struggled defending the perimeter run last week, a run the Colts are at their best utilizing. This should allow the Colts to become more balanced on offense, and better resemble the offense they were with James. The Colts have done a good job finishing off drives with touchdowns, and should score enough points on offense to have their defense in position to cover this spread.

False sense of security? A lot of Jets backers are claiming that the Colts are prone to overlooking the Jets after coming off two divisional games, while having another one next week. However, the Colts have never been a team to overlook an opponent, and have played the role of bullies to perfection. They have always done a good job covering out of division games when being big favorites when Manning has been quarterback. They are also a team that is hard to backdoor, as their offense never seems to let up. Lastly, a lot of Jets backers are claiming that since Mangini is a Billichek desiple, he should have no problem establishing a defensive game plan to shutdown Manning. Last time I checked you need personnel to shutdown Manning along with a game plan, as they have no problem running through the Patriots last year when they have their fair share of injuries on defense.

Cons:
Pennington has looked as good as he ever has so far this year. His arm actually looks stronger now than it ever did, making him a more dangerous quarterback attacking the second and third level of a defense, where the Colts are most vulnerable in defending. The Colts have not looked terribly sharp on defense this year, and are battling their fair share of injuries on that side of the ball. This has prevented their pass rush from being the force they were last year, which has also allowed their weaknesses in their secondary to be better exploited. Laying these kinds of odds on a road team always has its risks. Although the Colts are a hard team to backdoor, the Jets showed that they have backdoor potential when they made a quick comeback against the Patriots in week 2.

Conclusion:
Although neither team has played as well as their record would lead you to believe, the Colts are the only team in this game that is the real deal. Expect Manning to be too much for this Jets defense, while the Colts defense gets back on track against an offense that lacks a running game that could exploit their deficiencies. I see winning by double digits for the Colts to not be that difficult of a task.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: NFL Week 4: Plays

Jaguars @ Redskins
Play: Redskins +3
Comment:
Pros:
After starting the season wining the first two games against two of the better teams in the league, the Jaguars are coming off a very disappointing and confidence deflating loss in a much anticipated rivalry game against the Colts. After dominating the Colts for the entire first half and ending the game without even coming close to winning, the Jaguars have to wonder where they really stand in the league right now. After starting the season in disappointing fashion by losing to two NFC contenders, the Redskins are coming off a dominating, confidence boosting performance against the Texans which allowed their offense to see what they could actually do. What should we expect out of these two teams this week? Will the Jaguars bounce back from a letdown game against the Colts, or will having played 3 playoff physical games in a row be too much for this team to overcome in order to travel and play a 4th game in a row with playoff physicality? Will the Redskins be able to carry the momentum from last week back home and get back to the .500 mark, or was that merely a solid performance against a bottom feeder team?

The Redskins offense finally showed what they could do last week, as the return of Portis allowed their offense to become much better balanced, allowing for much needed pressure to be taken off of Brunell. During the first two games without Portis, the Redskins faced two run defense that are really hard to attack up the middle, making a solid perimeter running back the solution to establish a running game. Being one of the best perimeter runners in the league, it was no surprise that the Redskins severely missed Portis in those games. This will be another game in which it is really hard to run interiorly against the opposing defense, as the Jaguars have one of the best tackle combinations in the league. However, with the loss of Hayward, the Jaguars have proven capable of being run against when attacking the edges. Enter Portis. Expect Saunders to install a lot of perimeter runs early in the game to force the two massive Jaguars tackles to run laterally, making them prone to being worn down later in the game. Saunders was also really creative with is running plays, as he utilized a lot of counters and misdirection?s. These are both ideal runs to install against the Jaguars as their front seven is prone to being aggressive and struggling defending these plays (Jones used the counter effectively against them in week 1). There is no denying that the Jaguars have one of the best run defenses in the league, but expect the Redskins running trio of Portis, Betts and Duckett to be able to be effective enough to keep the Redskins offense well balanced, thus, taking pressure off of Brunell. Although the Jaguars did a good job limiting Big Ben and Manning?s effectiveness in the passing game, I actually like how the Redskins passing game matches up with the Jaguars pass defense more than the other two quarterback?s game did. The Redskins like to use a lot of play action and pump fakes in their passing game. This is definitely something you want to use against the Jaguars aggressive corners that have been vulnerable defending these types of plays in the past. The Jaguars also have a top tier pass rush that is best countered by screen passes and short timing routes. The Redskins are also one of the better teams at employing such plays, as both Randel El and Moss are at their best when getting the ball early. The Jaguars are also most vulnerable defending three receiver formations, while the Redskins have one of the better three receiver sets in the league. Expect them to use Randel El and Moss in the slot in a lot of passing situations, as Cousins has struggled covering the smaller and faster receivers in the league. Lastly, the Jaguars Cover 2 defense is prone to getting beat over the middle against the tight end, as Darious is a better suited stopping the run. Although Cooley hasn?t gotten much started this year, he is one of the better receiving tight ends in the league that has picked apart cover 2 defenses in the past. The Jaguars top tier pass rush and two massive tackles make it hard for immobile pocket passers to get things going, as its hard to throw against them in the pocket. With that said, Brunell is at his best rolling out of the pocket, which should force the tackles to move laterally and not block passing lanes for Brunell. Although I am not expecting the Redskins to move the ball as easily as they did last week, don?t be surprised if they put forth a better offensive effort compared to any other team the Jaguars have faced this year.

Leftwich finally returned to his former self last week, as he was unable to provide the Jaguars an effective passing game to go along with their dominant running game. With running room not going to be coming as easily this week, he must improve his level of play in the Jaguars want to cover this spread. However, he has some tough obstacles to overcome in order to do so. Expect Williams to throw a lot of complex blitzes at Leftwich that has given him problems in the past. His linebackers will be used in zone blitzing schemes to force the ball out early out of Leftwich hands, while the Redskins secondary sit back. Leftwich has the tendency to telegraph his throws with his wind up, and usually resorts to the fade route to counteract blitzes. This will allow Taylor to play the center field role and jump the fade routes downfield. Leftwich?s accuracy has been a problem in the past, and seemed to show up against last week. Although the Jaguars have a big size advantage in their receiver spot compared to the Redskins corners, the Redskins have fast corners that will make it hard for the receivers to create separation. If Leftwich continues to struggle with his throws, without separation, the passing game will suffer. The Jaguars passing game also feeds of their running game, so when they have trouble running the ball, Leftwich?s play action pass in not much of a factor. Although Jones and Drew have looked really good this week, after playing three physical games, expect them to slow down against one of the better run defenses in football. The Jaguars running game did a great job attacking the edges against the Colts; however that is the hardest area of the field to run against the Redskins as Holdman and Washington make for one of the best outside linebacker combinations in the league. The Jaguars running game also relies on after contact yardage, while the Redskins are also one of the best tackling teams in the league. The return of Salevea should shore up their interior run defense, which should provide little running room for the Jaguars backs.

The intangible timing also favors the Redskins in this game. The Jaguars just got finished playing three very physical games against the Cowboys, Steelers and Colts. They were heavily relying a lot on confidence and momentum in that game, two variables that were shattered last week by the Colts. The Jaguars were crying foul during the week regarding the Colts loss, and one has to wonder whether their heads will be in this out of conference game. The Redskins were down and out last week after losing two in a row, the got a much needed confidence last week with a comforting win that had both Portis and Brunell playing well.

Cons:
The Jaguars are more proven this year. They outplayed all three of their opponents- all three being top ten teams in my opinion. They have always played well on the road. The Redskins on the other hand lost and were outplayed by both above average teams that they have faced. The AFC vs NFC factor is also a concern, as the AFC has proven over and over that they are the much better conference that usually ends up winning these types of games. Although Brunnell is able to play, his injury is a concern, as it is the same injury that kept him out when playing with the Jaguars. It is a type of injury that could get worse during the game, and the Redskins depth at quarterback is lacking. The Redskins secondary is really underachieving, as it has become quite obvious they really miss Springs. The Jaguars have depth at receiving and could really exploit this deficiency with multiple receiver sets.

Conclusion:
Expect the Jaguars to suffer from a letdown spot after losing in a much anticipated game last week coupled with having little left in the tank after playing three emotional and physical games in a row. The Redskins have now shown signs of getting back on track, and simply have too much talent to get home points against the Jaguars. Wrong team favored. I like the home dog here.

 

[Fullboat]

Re: NFL Week 4: Plays

Hey Buffett - Great writeups....as usual. I almost feel like I don't do enough after reading the in-depth analysis and trains of thought you have each week. Anyway, my thoughts on your picks if you're interested:

- Chargers@Ravens is a classic stay away game. Large potential to go either way makes this a game I won't touch.

- Vikes@Bills I like this pick. Both teams can play in bad/cold weather and loud stadiums, so home team advantage is not too much of a factor. Brad Johnson is playing the smartest football that he's played in his career, and I believe the Vikings defense will be able to do a decent enough job holding McGahee at bay to win the game...which is all they need to do for us betters. Lastly, Losman is mistake prone, and turnovers are killer in close games.

Dolphins@Texans Over - Love this play. Both teams actually have decent offensive squads who have underperformed, and the Texans usually play better at home.

Cardinals@Falcons Over - Another great play. I din't see this one until you pointed it out. I'm not a huge fan of the inconsistent Cardinals, but 40.5 points is a not a lot for two teams that have proven they can score. It also helps that the Falcons are looking show the world that Monday night was just a bad outing and a tough day to be playing the Saints. I expect to see a heavy dose of Dunn and Vick.

Colts@Jets - No brainer. This is tough coming from a hard-core Jet fan, but they have played two terrible teams and a mediocre NE team, for a record of 2-1. The Colts are the real deal and should bully the Jets all day. Only worry is that the Colts don't get up for this game, and play flat. I'm not suggesting they will lose, but it has the potential to be close if they get bored. The Colts will probably be a one of two parlays for me.

Jags@Redskins - This is the only game we are on different sides. Brunell is inconsistent and the Jags defense is extremely tough on QB's. I expect Brunell to be running for his life all day. Portis will not be a factor against the Jags front four. As for Leftwich....he's starting to mature, and make better decisions, which is all the Jags really needed to compete with the best in the league. In the past, it was turnovers, particularly Leftwich's, that lost games for Jags...I think this a different Leftwich packaged with an even stronger defense.

Thanks again for the analysis and GLTY.

-FB

 

[boof3219]

Re: NFL Week 4: Plays

good write ups bg

only one i will not play is wash but really like the other plays

talk to ya soon im off to hit the sticks

glty boof

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: NFL Week 4: Plays

Fullboat,
Glad to see you join the site. Haven't heard from you in a while. Good analysis on my games. Good luck today.

Boof,
Thanks buddy. The Redskins don't seem to be that popular of a pick. Good luck today.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: NFL Week 4: Plays

Seahawks @ Bears
Play: Seahawks +3.5
Comment:
Pros:
Two weeks ago the Cardinals came into Seattle to challenge the Seahawks and make a claim that they are a team to be reckoned with as far as a division title goes in the NFC West. They failed miserably. Last week, after an impressive come from behind victory against the Eagles, the Giants felt that they were the team to beat in the NFC and wanted to prove it to the Seahawks. They failed miserably. After falling one game shy last year, the Seahawks added key players on their offense and their defense, and appear to actually be a better team than last year.

Although the Bears have started the season 3-0 like the Seahawks, I am reluctant to put them in the same class as the Seahawks. There first two wins were against two of the worst teams in the league, while their latest victory was a win in which the Vikings let slip away with a late fumble that cost them the game. Although people continue to fill Grossman with compliments, looking beyond his stat sheet, he was far from impressive last week. This week, things shouldn?t get any easier for him, as he is up against what might be the most dangerous defense in the NFC.

In my opinion, I feel that Seahawks bettors are being more than compensated for the injury to Alexander, as he is the most overrated running back in football, whose soft style of running was not an ideal match up against this tough hitting Bears defense. I actually feel that in this particular match up, that Morris is not that much of a downgrade for the Seahawks. Having said that, it will be the Seahawks passing game which should give them the big edge in this game. There is not a deeper receiving group in football compared to the Seahawks. What is most impressive about these receivers is that they are the ideal fit for Holgrems west coast offense. With the addition of Branch, the Seahawks are able to constantly line up with three and four receiver sets. Expect them to put the nickel and dime back on the field as much as possible with these sets, and force them, or the outside linebackers to spread out laterally in coverage, leaving the middle of the field vulnerable for seams and crossing passes. The Bears defense is most vulnerable when spread out, but have yet to face an offense this year that can force them into that role. The west coast passing scheme is also the perfect antidote for the top level pass rush the Bears have, as Hassleback is able to get the ball out quickly after his three and five step drops. The Bears, unlike the other three teams in which the Seahawks have faced, rely more on four men in their pass rush to get pressure on the quarterback. However, the Seahawks have done well in pass protection in the past against these types of pass rushes, and the more 4 receiver formations last week made Hassleback less vulnerable to the sack, as the Giants failed to record one, while he was sacked four times in each of the first two games. I still feel that the Bears secondary is more suspect than most people, and feel that it is able to be exploited better by the smaller and solid route runners they face. The Seahawks have four of them. Expect this passing game to open up the running game for Morris. The Bears will be less pursuant to the line of scrimmage, which should open up lanes for Morris in the running game. He will more than likely be effective with draw plays and runs in passing situations with 3 or 4 corners on the field, as he hits the holes much quicker than Alexander. The Bears showed a tendency to struggle last week against a somewhat similar back, and their tackling skills were lacking. I also like how the zone blocking scheme in which the Seahawks use really well in their running game matches up with the Bears aggressive front seven that could be caught over pursuing and opening up cut back lanes for Morris. Don?t expect the Seahawks offense to falter without Alexnader against this Bears defense. They have enough weapons in their passing game, the ability to substitute short passes for runs, and Morris matches up better against this front than Alexander.

Grossman might be in for a long day today, as he really made some poor decisions last week when under pressure. This does not bode well for him, as the Seahawks have the ability to put pressure on the quarterback as well as any other defense in the league right now. Grossman has established a real comfort zone with Muhammad in the passing game, but has not developed much chemistry with other receiving options on the team. So deciphering how Muhammad matches up in each particular game is key. Tonight is not a good match up for him, as Trufant is one of the better press coverage corners that should get double team help from Hamlin, who is excellent at reading passing plays and getting a jump on the ball. Grossman really telegraphed his passes last week, which allowed the Vikings safeties to have 3 interception opportunities. Don?t be surprised if Hamlin has another big game. Without Muhamed, the Bears should have trouble consistently moving the ball downfield in the passing game, as Berrian is used more as a big play threat, while Clark?s health is a concern, and will be a game time decision. The Bears also rely a lot on first level passing plays which is hard to establish against the Seahawks, as their linebackers are able to get to the perimeter as fast as any in the league, while the Seahawks press coverage schemes makes it difficult for the opposing receivers to create separation early in the play. Jones did well last week with off tackle runs, something he should struggle establishing this week against a top tier linebacking crew. Petterson has been a nice addition for the Seahawks, as it has now become hard for a running back to attack either perimeter of the Seahawks defense right now. The interior run is not the Bears strong suit, while solid play of Tatupu and the Seahawks tackles has made it hard for teams to run up the middle against them. The Bears have struggled establishing a running game this year, as they have averaged only 3 yards a carry. Things shouldn?t get any easier for them this week, leading me to believe they might become a one dimensional offense, which is the last thing you want against the Seahawks pass rush.

Cons:
Home field advantage might prove costly in this game, as the Seahawks have never been that good of a road team. It is no surprise that they struggled in their only road game this year. Although I don?t think it will hurt the Seahawks much this game, not having the MVP in the league is not something you want in any game. It might prove most costly in the passing game, as Morris has not been that good of a blocker in passing situations, which is not a deficiency you want against the Bears pass rush. The Seahawks passing game heavily relies on timing and tempo, something that is always harder to achieve in hostile crowds. Grossman got much needed experience last week against a solid defense. This week he will be up against one in a much friendlier environment.

Conclusion:
I am not sure if the Seahawks can pull out a victory against the Bears on the road without Alexander, but I feel that the Bears are still too unproven of a team to have to lay more than a field goal against the NFC champs. Last time they played at home against a tough opponent, they got embarrassed by the Panthers. Although I am not expecting the same this week, I will take my chances once again this week going against the Bears when up against a solid team, as they have yet to prove me not to.

 

[The General]

Re: NFL Week 4: Plays

Good luck on all your plays BG

 

[vinny vegas]

Re: NFL Week 4: Plays

You like anything tonight? I'm leaning to the OVER, but 9 overs hit yesterday...

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: NFL Week 4: Plays

Vinny,
I am probably the last person you should ask as I just can't seem to get anything going in the NFL this year.

One thing I will say is that you can not factor in yesterday's total results when looking at tonights game. It is merely a phychological barrier some cappers have a hard time getting by.

Still looking into some things regarding this game. Good luck tonight.