Question for experienced sports bettors and screen watchers

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
We all understand that getting the best number of a bet is the second most important thing in sports betting. But my question is how do you interpret the market if the best number available is at one of the following books.

Offshore
Pinnacle
Bookmaker
Grande

Vegas
Westgate
South Point

If you are looking to make a bet and the best number on your screen is at one of these places does this make it a no bet or do you play the opposite way?

There are enough square books out there with larger spreads that if a book that takes big sharp action has the best available number that seems to be a red flag. Yet how can this info be used to our advantage?

My knee jerk reaction would be to bet the opposite of what the best line is.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
If I get the best number in the world at Bookmaker, I lose.

If I get the best number in the world at Station Casinos, I win.

Solve by inspection.
 

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
If I get the best number in the world at Bookmaker, I lose.

If I get the best number in the world at Station Casinos, I win.

Solve by inspection.
I get the same result on the Bookmaker.eu part. I am figuring there is a way to profit from this situation.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Bookmaker versus Station Casinos is a place to start.

Some big money is sometimes bet at MGM Mirage properties so they may book to their bottom line as opposed to shadowing offshore numbers.
 

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
If you are getting the best number at Pinny, Bookmaker, or GRANDE you most likely will lose, especially at game day....
Does this mean it's an auto play on the opposite side of the "best number".

So if bookmaker has the Packers at -2.5 when the screen has -3 you go bet +3 somewhere else.

Also if Pinny, Bookmaker, and Grande and all in agreement......meaning they have the best or near the best side/total go somewhere and get down.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Does this mean it's an auto play on the opposite side of the "best number".

So if bookmaker has the Packers at -2.5 when the screen has -3 you go bet +3 somewhere else.

Also if Pinny, Bookmaker, and Grande and all in agreement......meaning they have the best or near the best side/total go somewhere and get down.


I believe this basic strategy will improve your winning percentage but not necessarily lead you to the winner's circle, especially when involved in major sports leagues like the NFL and NBA.
 

ChuckyG

EOG Master
Sports, my opinion is that profits are generated via combination of Opinion + Line Shopping.

In your example, think about what your opinion was on the game b4 line movement. If u leaned side B + now seeing that Sharp books are leaning Side A...then betting Side B at favorable # makes good business sense. It's always a game of small margins.
 

Drnkyourmlkshk

EOG Dedicated
I move the number a little in MLB someone heavy involved it seems via Twitter. I move it more in football on my own but I am obsessed with openers and I pay great attention to 3 books.
Grande 1st up I respect them the most. They take a serious wager and dont deal with as much rec money. Anything that moves there first I want to know about and make sure I'm not on other side or am down in full already if I agree.
Catalina only because whoever moves their overnight is unreal good at NBA. Took me until March to realize this unfortunately. Whoever he, she or they are they never got a single move wrong in 3 months and won much more than me and my partner.
Cris any huge 9 cent or point and half move spike (not gradual) on anything I like to know about.

The problem with screen watching is it will eventually cause you chess player problems. You watch it too often and you can talk yourself in and out of any bet. You become too reliant on it and your overall approach can become lazy. Steam doesn't win enough to ever take bad numbers.. the same guy who laid 115 isnt likely to lay 23 3 minutes later...took me 50k minimum from 12-16 to realize this.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I move the number a little in MLB someone heavy involved it seems via Twitter. I move it more in football on my own but I am obsessed with openers and I pay great attention to 3 books.
Grande 1st up I respect them the most. They take a serious wager and dont deal with as much rec money. Anything that moves there first I want to know about and make sure I'm not on other side or am down in full already if I agree.
Catalina only because whoever moves their overnight is unreal good at NBA. Took me until March to realize this unfortunately. Whoever he, she or they are they never got a single move wrong in 3 months and won much more than me and my partner.
Cris any huge 9 cent or point and half move spike (not gradual) on anything I like to know about.

The problem with screen watching is it will eventually cause you chess player problems. You watch it too often and you can talk yourself in and out of any bet. You become too reliant on it and your overall approach can become lazy. Steam doesn't win enough to ever take bad numbers.. the same guy who laid 115 isnt likely to lay 23 3 minutes later...took me 50k minimum from 12-16 to realize this.


CRIS, at times, instantly moves from the market-high price to the market-low price, or vice versa.

Doesn't seem to matter if it happens early or late in the betting cycle, the dramatic move -- more times than not -- signals a pointspread winner.

But DRINK makes a good point about "talking yourself in and out of any bet."

If you really know the product, no matter the sport, your opinion should outperform early market numbers.

In horse racing, I sometimes look for unnatural money (when a horse is bet below its win expectations) in the betting pools to point me in the right direction.

But that's only because I don't follow the ponies daily.

It puts me on what some would argue are overbet horses, but I feel a sense of comfort with the market support.

I will search for alternate pools (Win, Exacta, Pick 3, etc.) to avoid the depressed prices caused by the unnatural money.

This is a corollary to what RAYCABINO suggested the other day by searching for derivative markets in sports betting.
 
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ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
CRIS, at times, instantly moves from the market-high price to the market-low price, or vice versa.

Doesn't seem to matter if it happens early or late in the betting cycle, the dramatic move -- more times than not -- signals a pointspread winner.

But DRINK makes a good point about "talking yourself in and out of any bet."

If you really know the product, no matter the sport, your opinion should outperform early market numbers.

In horse racing, I sometimes look for unnatural money (when a horse is bet below its win expectations) in the betting pools to point me in the right direction.

But that's only because I don't follow the ponies daily.

It puts me on what some would argue are overbet horses, but I feel a sense of comfort with the market support.

I will search for pools to avoid the depressed prices caused by the unnatural money.

This is a corollary to what RAYCABINO suggested the other day by searching for derivative markets in sports betting.

Bingo.

I try to let as few external factors as possible influence my opinion on a baseball game.

I rarely look at line histories or screen movement before betting my stuff. It's worked well for me the last 2 years, at least in MLB.

As for my opinions on other sports, well... they need all the influencing they can get. :cautious:
 
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GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
What was he arguing?

There was a little more to it than this but this is the gist of it:

Rufus Peabody‏ @RufusPeabody Jun 5

Hot take: The #1 issue holding back recreational gamblers is *NOT* bankroll management. It's placing negative EV bets.

32 replies 6 retweets 145 likes

· Brian‏ @Gamebred74 Jun 5

Money Mgt is unequivocally #1.... Don't take my word for it: "Betting too much, even though each individual bet is in your favor, can be ruinous," - Thorp

1 reply 0 retweets 1 like

· Rufus Peabody‏ @RufusPeabody Jun 5

Let me lay out this hypothetical: every recreational bettor is +EV, but overbets their bankroll. The sportsbook will lose money overall and bettors will win overall.

2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes

· Brian‏ @Gamebred74 Jun 6

1,2,3,... what is the next number in this sequence? Your answer to me is my answer to you; I need more info. I don't think we're going to manufacture agreement on this issue. I respect your views, just disagree.

1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes

· Rufus Peabody‏ @RufusPeabody Jun 6

But do you understand my point? If you're betting with an edge, all poor bankroll management will do is increase your variance, which of course can make you go busto. But from the book's perspective they will be expected to lose.

1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes

· Brian‏ @Gamebred74 Jun 6

Yes, I understand your point but going, "busto" even w/ an edge is my point; which I believe you agree with, Keeping your Risk of Ruin as close to 0% as possible is priority #1. You can't compound on zero dollars.

2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

· MrTennisPicks‏ @Mr_Tennis_Picks Jun 6

But you can always reload (unless you have no income and are completely broke). Going busto would be a temporary roadblock for a +EV bettor. Poor bankroll management may accelerate the rate at which average bettors lose, but -EV bets are the root cause of the long-term losing

2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

· Brian‏ @Gamebred74 Jun 6

What good does having an edge do me if I consistently overbet it? You need both, positive expected wagers that are properly stake weighted. They are twins, we're just debating who was born first :)

2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

· MrTennisPicks‏ @Mr_Tennis_Picks Jun 6

Right, but the recreational bettor does not have positive expected wagers regardless of how he manages his bankroll. Betting conservatively will only reduce the rate at which bankroll decreases. It's easier to correct bankroll mismanagement than to actually become a +EV bettor

2 replies 0 retweets 1 like

· MrTennisPicks‏ @Mr_Tennis_Picks Jun 6

I'm speculating, but a bookie might say that bankroll management is the Achilles heel of smaller customers who bet aggressively with a get-rich-quick mentality but can't afford to keep playing after going busto, while larger customers continue to lose over time due to -EV plays

1 reply 0 retweets 1 like

Brian‏ @Gamebred74

Replying to @Mr_Tennis_Picks @RufusPeabody

This. None of us start out +EV, U need 2 pay the Market a tuition. Problem is most go broke before graduating. I've never heard of any1 losing a 10K roll betting $100 at a time (1% of roll). You can have 1,000 +EV wagers in a row and still be down $; nevermind overbetting.
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
What was he arguing?

Part 2: I think this just about covers it or very close to it:

Brian‏ @Gamebred74 Jun 6

What good does having an edge do me if I consistently overbet it? You need both, positive expected wagers that are properly stake weighted. They are twins, we're just debating who was born first :)

Rufus Peabody‏ @RufusPeabody Jun 6

Well, technically speaking, for +EV wagers, the more you wager, the greater the expected profit ;)

Brian‏ @Gamebred74 Jun 6

Not if the stake is out of line w/ the edge.

Rufus Peabody‏ @RufusPeabody Jun 6

Even if the stake is out of line w/ the edge. But that's just expectation.

Brian‏ @Gamebred74

Replying to @RufusPeabody @Mr_Tennis_Picks

Come on Rufus, when do you ever intentionally overbet your perceived edge?

Rufus Peabody‏ @RufusPeabody Jun 6

Replying to @Gamebred74 @Mr_Tennis_Picks

Look, obviously maximizing expected profit on a bet is not the name of the game. Kelly maximizes expectation of bankroll growth

Brian‏ @Gamebred74 Jun 6

Staying in the game is the name of the game. Rule #1: Keep your Risk of Ruin as close to 0% as possible. Overbetting is counterproductive to this tenet.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Part 2: I think this just about covers it or very close to it:

Brian‏ @Gamebred74 Jun 6

What good does having an edge do me if I consistently overbet it? You need both, positive expected wagers that are properly stake weighted. They are twins, we're just debating who was born first :)


Fabulous way to frame your thoughts.

Go to the head of the class and take a seat right behind ComptrBob.
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
Well you guys are obviously both right in that you need to make +ev bets and you need to bet according to your bankroll and edge. However gun to head if I could only do one of the 2 correct I would choose to have the ability to make the +ev bets and overbet the bankroll as apposed to neg ev bets betting properly ( which would actually be to never make a bet if I'm betting my neg ev bets properly lol). Obviously only sure long term success is doing both correctly but you at least have a punchers chance if you can make +ev bets even if your br management sucks but if you can't make +ev bets then br management is irrelevant. So I guess at the end of the day I side with Rufus here by a hair but you're still my boy.
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
Well you guys are obviously both right in that you need to make +ev bets and you need to bet according to your bankroll and edge. However gun to head if I could only do one of the 2 correct I would choose to have the ability to make the +ev bets and overbet the bankroll as apposed to neg ev bets betting properly ( which would actually be to never make a bet if I'm betting my neg ev bets properly lol). Obviously only sure long term success is doing both correctly but you at least have a punchers chance if you can make +ev bets even if your br management sucks but if you can't make +ev bets then br management is irrelevant. So I guess at the end of the day I side with Rufus here by a hair but you're still my boy.

LOL. I respect both of your views but I'm w/ Thorpe, it can be ruinous to Overbet w/ an edge. In the annals of Gambling, I think poor bankroll mangement has ruined many a poor boy over making -EV Bets.
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
Well you guys are obviously both right in that you need to make +ev bets and you need to bet according to your bankroll and edge. However gun to head if I could only do one of the 2 correct I would choose to have the ability to make the +ev bets and overbet the bankroll as apposed to neg ev bets betting properly ( which would actually be to never make a bet if I'm betting my neg ev bets properly lol). Obviously only sure long term success is doing both correctly but you at least have a punchers chance if you can make +ev bets even if your br management sucks but if you can't make +ev bets then br management is irrelevant. So I guess at the end of the day I side with Rufus here by a hair but you're still my boy.

Until such time that you develop into a +EV bettor by surviving long enough. Making +EV bets w/out scaling them correclty reminds me of the Abstract Artist who can't paint a portrait; you got it backwards. Learn the basics first and then develop your craft. It's really a philosophical disagreement and I think most Sharps would agree w/ Rufus but I think they are wrong. I think Thorpe is smarter than the lot of them and I'm not above appealing to authority :)
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
LOL. I respect both of your views but I'm w/ Thorpe, it can be ruinous to Overbet w/ an edge. In the annals of Gambling, I think poor bankroll mangement has ruined many a poor boy over making -EV Bets.
Obviously this is true but without the +ev the br management doesn't matter. It would be like going to the roulette wheel and saying, "I do well because I use good br management". You can't trick the math no matter what br management you use (I'm well aware tht you completely understand this lol). Don't confuse this with me underestimating the value of properly betting your br. I realize full and well that you are a big dog to survive without both skillsets. Just seems to me that without the ability to make +ev wagers the br management really doesn't exist unless we are playing the "i can lose less than you game". Gun to head Thorpe would agree as well.
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
Obviously this is true but without the +ev the br management doesn't matter. It would be like going to the roulette wheel and saying, "I do well because I use good br management". You can't trick the math no matter what br management you use (I'm well aware tht you completely understand this lol). Don't confuse this with me underestimating the value of properly betting your br. I realize full and well that you are a big dog to survive without both skillsets. Just seems to me that without the ability to make +ev wagers the br management really doesn't exist unless we are playing the "i can lose less than you game". Gun to head Thorpe would agree as well.

Let me ask you this, who do you think sees ruin first, the +EV bettor who Ovebets their edge or the -EV bettor who is disciplined as fuck w/ his $ Mgt?
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
Obviously this is true but without the +ev the br management doesn't matter. It would be like going to the roulette wheel and saying, "I do well because I use good br management". You can't trick the math no matter what br management you use (I'm well aware tht you completely understand this lol). Don't confuse this with me underestimating the value of properly betting your br. I realize full and well that you are a big dog to survive without both skillsets. Just seems to me that without the ability to make +ev wagers the br management really doesn't exist unless we are playing the "i can lose less than you game". Gun to head Thorpe would agree as well.

It does in that it keeps you in the game long enough to eventually become +EV. If you're overbetting your edge, it's only a matter of time before you tap out because your Risk of Ruin is above 0% (although it can never quite get to zero).
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
It does in that it keeps you in the game long enough to eventually become +EV. If you're overbetting your edge, it's only a matter of time before you tap out because your Risk of Ruin is above 0% (although it can never quite get to zero).

Let me bring Taleb into the discussion. Not sure if I have this exactly correct but he talks about 100 people going to a Casino w/ an edge but overbetting it. All either make money or don’t go broke EXCEPT for player 26; he was the only one who went broke overbetting his edge. 1 out of 100 ain’t bad (1% Risk of Ruin) but if it’s JUST YOU and if the 26th time you go to the Casino, you come back empty, it’s game over. You’re done. There is no tomorrow, Little Orphan Annie was wrong, the sun ain’t coming out.

You can’t consistently overbet your edge and even hope to survive.
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
Let me ask you this, who do you think sees ruin first, the +EV bettor who Ovebets their edge or the -EV bettor who is disciplined as fuck w/ his $ Mgt?
Well the +ev bettor but he also has a way better shot to blow his br up than the ieciplined -ev bettor. The good news is in general if you are good enough to make +ev wagers consistently (a very small percentage of bettors are) then you are more likely to be in the camp that understands how to manage his br properly as well.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
The only way to win if you're a negative-EV player is to vary your wagers wildly.

Win the big bets and lose the small ones.
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
Well the +ev bettor but he also has a way better shot to blow his br up than the ieciplined -ev bettor. The good news is in general if you are good enough to make +ev wagers consistently (a very small percentage of bettors are) then you are more likely to be in the camp that understands how to manage his br properly as well.

I agree but the question was poorly worded in the sense that it’s context dependent. Are they over-betting their 5% edge by .01% or are they over-betting their .01% edge by 5%, etc (this is what I mean when I told Rufus I didn’t have enough info to answer his question). My apologies but you took my point about the dangers of overbetting.

Like we are both aware, it's a philosophical disagreement and perhaps my Trading mentality makes me uber $ Mgt focused but I just don't agree w/ most on this issue but you're still my boy :)
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
The only way to win if you're a negative-EV player is to vary your wagers wildly.

Win the big bets and lose the small ones.

That would be nice :)

My point is mostly about the dangers of overbetting which raises your Risk of Ruin (you don't want to do that).
 
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