There was a little more to it than this but this is the gist of it:
Rufus Peabody @RufusPeabody Jun 5
Hot take: The #1 issue holding back recreational gamblers is *NOT* bankroll management. It's placing negative EV bets.
32 replies 6 retweets 145 likes
·
Brian @Gamebred74 Jun 5
Money Mgt is unequivocally #1.... Don't take my word for it: "Betting too much, even though each individual bet is in your favor, can be ruinous," - Thorp
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
·
Rufus Peabody @RufusPeabody Jun 5
Let me lay out this hypothetical: every recreational bettor is +EV, but overbets their bankroll. The sportsbook will lose money overall and bettors will win overall.
2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
·
Brian @Gamebred74 Jun 6
1,2,3,... what is the next number in this sequence? Your answer to me is my answer to you; I need more info. I don't think we're going to manufacture agreement on this issue. I respect your views, just disagree.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
·
Rufus Peabody @RufusPeabody Jun 6
But do you understand my point? If you're betting with an edge, all poor bankroll management will do is increase your variance, which of course can make you go busto. But from the book's perspective they will be expected to lose.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
·
Brian @Gamebred74 Jun 6
Yes, I understand your point but going, "busto" even w/ an edge is my point; which I believe you agree with, Keeping your Risk of Ruin as close to 0% as possible is priority #1. You can't compound on zero dollars.
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
·
MrTennisPicks @Mr_Tennis_Picks Jun 6
But you can always reload (unless you have no income and are completely broke). Going busto would be a temporary roadblock for a +EV bettor. Poor bankroll management may accelerate the rate at which average bettors lose, but -EV bets are the root cause of the long-term losing
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
·
Brian @Gamebred74 Jun 6
What good does having an edge do me if I consistently overbet it? You need both, positive expected wagers that are properly stake weighted. They are twins, we're just debating who was born first
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
·
MrTennisPicks @Mr_Tennis_Picks Jun 6
Right, but the recreational bettor does not have positive expected wagers regardless of how he manages his bankroll. Betting conservatively will only reduce the rate at which bankroll decreases. It's easier to correct bankroll mismanagement than to actually become a +EV bettor
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
·
MrTennisPicks @Mr_Tennis_Picks Jun 6
I'm speculating, but a bookie might say that bankroll management is the Achilles heel of smaller customers who bet aggressively with a get-rich-quick mentality but can't afford to keep playing after going busto, while larger customers continue to lose over time due to -EV plays
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Brian @Gamebred74
Replying to
@Mr_Tennis_Picks @RufusPeabody
This. None of us start out +EV, U need 2 pay the Market a tuition. Problem is most go broke before graduating. I've never heard of any1 losing a 10K roll betting $100 at a time (1% of roll). You can have 1,000 +EV wagers in a row and still be down $; nevermind overbetting.