Question for experienced sports bettors and screen watchers

[John Kelly]

That's the truest shit you ever spoke and speaks to my entire point.

Tupac Quotes for $200, Alex.

 

[GameBred]

Tupac Quotes for $200, Alex.

Holy shit, great pull, JK. My favorite rapper of all time.

 

[GameBred]

Tupac Quotes for $200, Alex.

 

[John Kelly]

I know more about Mustafa Shakur than Tupac Shakur.

 

[railbird]

if your bankroll gets ruined, doesnt mean your permantley broke

 

[GameBred]

if your bankroll gets ruined, doesnt mean your permantley broke

This isn’t Tipsterville and I’m not playing w/ monopoly money; my roll is my roll and there is no reloading (Rufus and I agreed on that much). Therefore, anything that raises my Risk of Ruin is persona non grata in my trading portfolio.

 

[GameBred]

I know more about Mustafa Shakur than Tupac Shakur.

Pac is the GOAT, IMO.

You can feel his sincerity and I post like he raps... at least that's what I tell people

 

[GameBred]

I know more about Mustafa Shakur than Tupac Shakur.

How did you even know I was channeling Pac in that post?

 

[John Kelly]

Cannot lie.

Google search.

 

[GameBred]

Cannot lie.

Google search.

Figured as much after your Mustafa comment, Before that, I thought you were OG

 

[John Kelly]

I answer to old guy, not original gangster.

 

[GameBred]

I answer to old guy, not original gangster.

LOL. Please don't tell me you had to google "OG" if so, then all hope is lost.

 

[John Kelly]

Did not Google "OG."

 

[GameBred]

Did not Google "OG."

These posters don’t know me,

I’m what you call an “OG.”

Rufus is a dog’s name and that bitch will obey me,

In reality, I’m the big dog, he’s the flea.

Just kidding, whoof, whoof,

That ain’t my order, that’s a spoof.

I’m not Paul Pierce but I am the Truth.

I call the shots like Babe Ruth.

Be careful when you disagree w/ me,

I’ll knock you out like the Korean Zombie.

I am the Undead, like UniBron,

This ain’t a rap, it’s a song.

When is the next Football game on?

The sooner the better, cause then I’m gone.

 

[MrTop]

I used to hate the dreaded CGT -105
side. No matter how
much I liked the side
I'd bet their lean elsewhere...

we will see within the next 2.5 months how CGT plays their opinion when they enter the NJ market. Will they play it like the MGM and have 2 lines on the screen ?


The MGM shows on the don best screen the Mirage vegas line & the PlayMGM (Borgata) NJ line

 

[railbird]

We all understand that getting the best number of a bet is the second most important thing in sports betting. But my question is how do you interpret the market if the best number available is at one of the following books.

Offshore
Pinnacle
Bookmaker
Grande

Vegas
Westgate
South Point

If you are looking to make a bet and the best number on your screen is at one of these places does this make it a no bet or do you play the opposite way?

There are enough square books out there with larger spreads that if a book that takes big sharp action has the best available number that seems to be a red flag. Yet how can this info be used to our advantage?

ive seen mindless threads like this always pop up.

 

[GameBred]

Rail,

Let me help you out, Drink basically answered Sporty's question. Please reread his response and try to learn something,

Anything else I can help you with?

 

[trytrytry]

in my observation the main problem of gamblers with a large overbet (Even if +EV situation) is not that one bet, but the possible psychological effect, I call it the trigger effect on your next series of bets if you lose. . know your trigger point were on a loss you dont really react or have a behavior change, dont over bet your trigger point and for same that amount is much much much less than a Kelly number, (brain chemistry and feelings , anxiety , revenge feelings, is real in money lost, feelings on money lost is much stronger than the same amount of money won, many studies on that) . the nice thing about +EV wagers is that over time you will still around and your trigger point will rise over time with repetition.

 

[GameBred]

I move the number a little in MLB someone heavy involved it seems via Twitter. I move it more in football on my own but I am obsessed with openers and I pay great attention to 3 books.
Grande 1st up I respect them the most. They take a serious wager and dont deal with as much rec money. Anything that moves there first I want to know about and make sure I'm not on other side or am down in full already if I agree.
Catalina only because whoever moves their overnight is unreal good at NBA. Took me until March to realize this unfortunately. Whoever he, she or they are they never got a single move wrong in 3 months and won much more than me and my partner.
Cris any huge 9 cent or point and half move spike (not gradual) on anything I like to know about.

The problem with screen watching is it will eventually cause you chess player problems. You watch it too often and you can talk yourself in and out of any bet. You become too reliant on it and your overall approach can become lazy. Steam doesn't win enough to ever take bad numbers.. the same guy who laid 115 isnt likely to lay 23 3 minutes later...took me 50k minimum from 12-16 to realize this.

 

[GameBred]

in my observation the main problem of gamblers with a large overbet (Even if +EV situation) is not that one bet, but the possible psychological effect, I call it the trigger effect on your next series of bets if you lose. . know your trigger point were on a loss you dont really react or have a behavior change, dont over bet your trigger point and for same that amount is much much much less than a Kelly number, (brain chemistry and feelings , anxiety , revenge feelings, is real in money lost, feelings on money lost is much stronger than the same amount of money won, many studies on that) . the nice thing about +EV wagers is that over time you will still around and your trigger point will rise over time with repetition.

Good post. In a lot of ways, $ Mgt is Emotional Mgt. and that is underappreciated because when your emotions get away from you, your $ may soon follow.

There is a saying, "Trading is 80% psycholgical and 20% psychological." While I think it is more psychological than betting, psychology does play a role in one's success/failure.

 

[FISHHEAD]

JK, send my some AMMO

 

[Sportsrmylife]

Isn't the idea of betting with an edge and betting a percentage of your roll clearly displayed in terms of blackjack. If the true count gets very high there has to be a max amount you should bet according to your roll and the true count. There is NEVER a true count where a bet it all amount becomes the proper bet size.

I've listened to plenty of "Gambling with an Edge" podcast shows with blackjack professionals where a downswing happens for tens of thousands of dollars. The combination of the true count along with a proper bet size according to your roll is what makes it profitable not just the true count.

Gamebred. I am very very surprised that Rufus debated you on this discussion given his podcast with Jeff Ma who clearly understands the concept of +EV bets with proper bet size given his blackjack history.

 

[GameBred]

Isn't the idea of betting with an edge and betting a percentage of your roll clearly displayed in terms of blackjack. If the true count gets very high there has to be a max amount you should bet according to your roll and the true count. There is NEVER a true count where a bet it all amount becomes the proper bet size.

I've listened to plenty of "Gambling with an Edge" podcast shows with blackjack professionals where a downswing happens for tens of thousands of dollars. The combination of the true count along with a proper bet size according to your roll is what makes it profitable not just the true count.

Gamebred. I am very very surprised that Rufus debated you on this discussion given his podcast with Jeff Ma who clearly understands the concept of +EV bets with proper bet size given his blackjack history.

Just imagine overbetting your edge when in the midst of one of these inevitable drawdowns.... it's Goodnight Gracie; it just is. Don't get me wrong, some equity paths will see your way out of it (until the next drawdown comes) while others will see you to the poor house. You want to eliminate, "The Others," not invite them in for tea.

 

[railbird]

Rail,

Let me help you out, Drink basically answered Sporty's question. Please reread his response and try to learn something,

Anything else I can help you with?

This thread is tired, ive read it 100 times over 20 yrs at 7 different forums

 

[GameBred]

Isn't the idea of betting with an edge and betting a percentage of your roll clearly displayed in terms of blackjack. If the true count gets very high there has to be a max amount you should bet according to your roll and the true count. There is NEVER a true count where a bet it all amount becomes the proper bet size.

I've listened to plenty of "Gambling with an Edge" podcast shows with blackjack professionals where a downswing happens for tens of thousands of dollars. The combination of the true count along with a proper bet size according to your roll is what makes it profitable not just the true count.

Gamebred. I am very very surprised that Rufus debated you on this discussion given his podcast with Jeff Ma who clearly understands the concept of +EV bets with proper bet size given his blackjack history.

I think most Sharps would agree w/ Rufus but I think their wrong and my opinion isn't going to change because my opinion only changes when the facts change and it's a mathematical fact that overbetting your edge increases your Risk of Ruin. No one on this planet is going to argue any different and for me, increasing one's ROR is ass-backwards, you want to move in the opposite direction.

 

[IWishIWasAPro]

it's a mathematical fact that overbetting your edge increases your Risk of Ruin

This is solid.

 

[Sportsrmylife]

This thread is tired, ive read it 100 times over 20 yrs at 7 different forums

At your age I would advise a glass of warm milk and a nap then.

 

[GameBred]

This thread is tired, ive read it 100 times over 20 yrs at 7 different forums

You never graduate from the fundamentals.

 

[GameBred]

This is solid.

Good choice. That's basically my entire argument summed up in a sentence

 

[Heim]

JK's poker playing friend shed some truth when he said money management prevents you from going broke but also
prevents you from making money.....

 

[cheapseats]

JK's poker playing friend shed some truth when he said money management prevents you from going broke but also
prevents you from making money.....

And in between sits the Lady.

 

[John Kelly]

JK's poker playing friend shed some truth when he said money management prevents you from going broke but also
prevents you from making money.....

He also arranged for pre-determined outcomes of races at Maywood Park.

Or so he was accused.

 

[John Kelly]

You never graduate from the fundamentals.

I like the way GameBred turns a phrase.

 

[John Kelly]

Just imagine overbetting your edge when in the midst of one of these inevitable drawdowns.... it's Goodnight Gracie; it just is. Don't get me wrong, some equity paths will see your way out of it (until the next drawdown comes) while others will see you to the poor house. You want to eliminate, "The Others," not invite them in for tea.

Add "Good night, Gracie" to my EOG glossary.

The last time I heard that phrase the late Gorilla Monsoon was ringside calling action in the WWWF.

Yes, three W's and an F.

 

[GameBred]

JK's poker playing friend shed some truth when he said money management prevents you from going broke but also
prevents you from making money.....

That's the dumbest shit I've ever heard but thanks for sharing.

 

[GameBred]

JK's poker playing friend shed some truth when he said money management prevents you from going broke but also
prevents you from making money.....

Enlighten us all, where is the truth in that statement? I've given you two pages of shit, give us a paragraph.

I'm breaking my own rule by making a prediction, you can't and you won't.