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John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Not a tennis authority, but I enjoy following live tennis lines.

Any tips on over/under wagering when it comes to total number of games played?

Key numbers?
 
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John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Big trouble in Pro's game.

Current score: Harvard 28 Dartmouth 18 with about eight minutes left in the first half.
 
B

brokerstip

EOG Addicted
What happened with this thread?

2022 tracking for my own good!

1/6/22 ATP Challenger Buenos Aires Gimeno Valero -312 vs Burruchaga (bookmaker) $60.80 to win $19.49 Gimeno Valero is head and shoulders above Burruchaga. Burruchaga got taken to a tiebreak in 1st match against a fellow Argentinian who is 17 that is just starting out on the challenger tour...
forums.eog.com forums.eog.com
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
railbird said:
24 is a dead number. in 5 set matches, 4th sets are often tanked.
Click to expand...


Thanks BIRDIE.

I like to follow the ladies more than the men.

Any important numbers there?

It seems, with the ladies, when a match goes it goes.

Very little fight in some of the lesser-know players in the early rounds.
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
Ladies always, JK. No thank you 5 set matches and no thank you non elite players. With the ladies, ranking doesn't matter as long as they are not ugly. I know enough to cap the ladies. I know shit about the men other than they are pussies besides the Joker.
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
PInky over Barby. Not that it will happen but it easily could. Doesn't matter who Pinky plays, Every match is determined by her serve. Can keep it to 1 or 2 breaks per set, can win. She is one of the be best on return.
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
John Kelly said:
I like to follow the ladies more than the men.

Any important numbers there?

It seems, with the ladies, when a match goes it goes.

Very little fight in some of the lesser-know players in the early rounds.
Click to expand...

Generally, tennis totals are a tough handicap. You have to handicap the players and their likelyhood in breaking and holding serve. More likely to break in women's tennis than men's. Ask how likely is the match going to be decided in straight sets?

An example is one of Dell's favorites, Australian Open, Elena Rybakina vs S. Zhang. ER is ML -667, -5.5 games -115, -1.5 sets -208, total 19 -119ov. So say you like ER to win in straight sets, hold serve and break Zhang 3 times. This would result most likely in 6-4, 6-3 match and push the total. If you like ER to be more dominant, than that, bet the UN19 or games -5.5, while if you like Zhang to keep it close bet the +5.5 -106 or the OV19, and if you think she will actually win a set, bet SZ +1.5 +161.

Obviously bet the ML if you expect ER to gut out a win 95% of the time or bet SZ at a win of >=35%. Just an example of how entangled these bets are.
 
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