2021 Baseball Picks, Fades, Info, Group Discussion

I'm taking all the OVER I can tonight at Wrigley, including eating the higher juice on some alternate totals. Everything comes together.

1.) Wind blowing OUT, but most importantly to right, backing toward right-center during the game, and NOT right at the Wintrust sign, which is much more common. This means no pileup of air in front of the sign and the ball gets aided to all fields old-school Wrigley style.

2.) 2 gas cans on the mound

3.) Mets order will likely feature lefties in 6 of the top 7 spots to take maximum advantage of the wind tunnel.
 
I'm taking all the OVER I can tonight at Wrigley, including eating the higher juice on some alternate totals. Everything comes together.

1.) Wind blowing OUT, but most importantly to right, backing toward right-center during the game, and NOT right at the Wintrust sign, which is much more common. This means no pileup of air in front of the sign and the ball gets aided to all fields old-school Wrigley style.

2.) 2 gas cans on the mound

3.) Mets order will likely feature lefties in 6 of the top 7 spots to take maximum advantage of the wind tunnel.
And maybe the Cubs' offense got rolling? I don't know; they strike me as a bully who will occasionally put up 10-12 runs against an overmatched pitcher then retreat. I haven't bet the total at this point. Is the wind blowing out? A little, according to dailybaseballdata (see below). But I'm not sure 10 MPH is enough to dead center to make a big difference when temps are in the low 50 to mid 50s. I also wouldn't necessarily consider Lucchesi a gas can.

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I'm taking all the OVER I can tonight at Wrigley, including eating the higher juice on some alternate totals. Everything comes together.

1.) Wind blowing OUT, but most importantly to right, backing toward right-center during the game, and NOT right at the Wintrust sign, which is much more common. This means no pileup of air in front of the sign and the ball gets aided to all fields old-school Wrigley style.

2.) 2 gas cans on the mound

3.) Mets order will likely feature lefties in 6 of the top 7 spots to take maximum advantage of the wind tunnel.
This is also my favorite play of the day

LFG!
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Think the total will go to 10. What scares me about cub home overs on 10+ is they seem to stay under with this group. Can someone look up this in the last 3-4 years. This is really a dick-tease lineup that cannot hit a fastball.
 
And maybe the Cubs' offense got rolling? I don't know; they strike me as a bully who will occasionally put up 10-12 runs against an overmatched pitcher then retreat. I haven't bet the total at this point. Is the wind blowing out? A little, according to dailybaseballdata (see below). But I'm not sure 10 MPH is enough to dead center to make a big difference when temps are in the low 50 to mid 50s. I also wouldn't necessarily consider Lucchesi a gas can.

View attachment 7463942
https://earth.google.com/web/@41.94825811,-87.65515181,178.99314137a,312.96914061d,35y,0h,0t,0r

Here's a Google Earth shot of Wrigley. A wind out to dead center mean *just* south of southwest (or about 220 degrees on the compass.)

Current wind speeds and directions: 270/15 (G24)at Midway and 265/9 (G22) at O'Hare.

Those speeds will come down a touch as we lose the daytime heating but the pressure gradient remains a bit tight so they won't come down ALL that much.

The wind is also forecast to back very gradually overnight but the game time is early enough that I'm reasonably certain that a right-of-dead-center component will exist for the entire length of the game. That's what I'm looking at. If I'm betting OVER a Cubs home game as strictly a weather play, this is what I want at the "new" Wrigley. I DON'T want the wind blowing out to dead center (where it gets obstructed briefly by the scoreboard) or to left-center (at the Wintrust sign.)

A wind tunnel needs both a source AND an outlet to be truly effective. You can demonstrate this in your home:

1.) Go outside and see which direction the wind is coming from.
2.) Open a window or door on the windward side of the house (facing the wind) and make note of the breeze that comes in.
3.) Next, leaving that door or window open, go the opposite (or lee) side of your house and open the window or door most directly opposite the first one you opened.
4.) Leaving the lee side window/door open, return to the first window you opened and you'll notice a MUCH stronger wind actually entering your house. The fact that it now has an outlet on the other side means much more efficient airflow through the home.

The *new* Wrigley became so because the Wintrust sign in left-center (which is the PREVAILING wind direction when the wind blows out) blocks that outlet... but the space to the right of the center field scoreboard is still wide open, thus giving the wind that outlet it needs. When that right-of-center component exists like I think it will tonight, it more resembles "old" Wrigley conditions where the ball is aided to all fields.

We'll know in 2 hours whether I'm right, but I'm maxed out on this total tonight and I've seen nothing that makes me want to lay any of it off, so here we are.

Think the total will go to 10. What scares me about cub home overs on 10+ is they seem to stay under with this group. Can someone look up this in the last 3-4 years. This is really a dick-tease lineup that cannot hit a fastball.
Let's not forget all the Met lefties getting rolled out vs. Williams.
 
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Think the total will go to 10. What scares me about cub home overs on 10+ is they seem to stay under with this group. Can someone look up this in the last 3-4 years. This is really a dick-tease lineup that cannot hit a fastball.
ejd is spot on with Williams who’s only facing 2 RHH’s and doesn’t handle LHH’s well

Conversely, Luchesi is facing only one lefty bat

You make a very valid point about the Cubs hitters regarding fastballs this season but Luchesi’s velocity doesn’t come close to approaching league average
 
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FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
ejd is spot on with Williams who’s only facing 2 RHH’s and doesn’t handle LHH’s well

Conversely, Luchesi is facing only one lefty bat

You make a very valid point about the Cubs hitters regarding fastballs this season but Luchesi’s velocity doesn’t come close to approaching league average
I wasn't saying him in particular, just weird how they basically can't do it anymore. I did parlay Bryant and Contraras to each hit a HR at 26/1. May do something similar with a couple of mets hitters also.
 
I wasn't saying him in particular, just weird how they basically can't do it anymore. I did parlay Bryant and Contraras to each hit a HR at 26/1. May do something similar with a couple of mets hitters also.
No-I wasn’t trying to challenge your point at all. Your observation is spot on with Cubs hitters and FB’s so far this season.
 
Think the total will go to 10. What scares me about cub home overs on 10+ is they seem to stay under with this group. Can someone look up this in the last 3-4 years. This is really a dick-tease lineup that cannot hit a fastball.


castellonos was with the cubs a short while ..it could throw your number off... he can hit anything... cubs strikeout 3rd most in MLB
 
https://earth.google.com/web/@41.94825811,-87.65515181,178.99314137a,312.96914061d,35y,0h,0t,0r

Here's a Google Earth shot of Wrigley. A wind out to dead center mean *just* south of southwest (or about 220 degrees on the compass.)

Current wind speeds and directions: 270/15 (G24)at Midway and 265/9 (G22) at O'Hare.

Those speeds will come down a touch as we lose the daytime heating but the pressure gradient remains a bit tight so they won't come down ALL that much.

The wind is also forecast to back very gradually overnight but the game time is early enough that I'm reasonably certain that a right-of-dead-center component will exist for the entire length of the game. That's what I'm looking at. If I'm betting OVER a Cubs home game as strictly a weather play, this is what I want at the "new" Wrigley. I DON'T want the wind blowing out to dead center (where it gets obstructed briefly by the scoreboard) or to left-center (at the Wintrust sign.)

A wind tunnel needs both a source AND an outlet to be truly effective. You can demonstrate this in your home:

1.) Go outside and see which direction the wind is coming from.
2.) Open a window or door on the windward side of the house (facing the wind) and make note of the breeze that comes in.
3.) Next, leaving that door or window open, go the opposite (or lee) side of your house and open the window or door most directly opposite the first one you opened.
4.) Leaving the lee side window/door open, return to the first window you opened and you'll notice a MUCH stronger wind actually entering your house. The fact that it now has an outlet on the other side means much more efficient airflow through the home.

The *new* Wrigley became so because the Wintrust sign in left-center (which is the PREVAILING wind direction when the wind blows out) blocks that outlet... but the space to the right of the center field scoreboard is still wide open, thus giving the wind that outlet it needs. When that right-of-center component exists like I think it will tonight, it more resembles "old" Wrigley conditions where the ball is aided to all fields.

We'll know in 2 hours whether I'm right, but I'm maxed out on this total tonight and I've seen nothing that makes me want to lay any of it off, so here we are.



Let's not forget all the Met lefties getting rolled out vs. Williams.
I'm not sure how familiar you are with Chicago area geography, but NEVER use Midway Airport for any kind of wind gauge for Wrigley Field. They are nearly 20 miles apart.
 
I'm not sure how familiar you are with Chicago area geography, but NEVER use Midway Airport for any kind of wind gauge for Wrigley Field. They are nearly 20 miles apart.
Don't know how you get a edge playing a Cub total based on wind. You might have when the stardust put up the line,but the pinnacle bookmaker combo wait to the day of the game to gather as much info as possible to make a good line. More goes into that line than any other baseball line.
 
Don't know how you get a edge playing a Cub total based on wind. You might have when the stardust put up the line,but the pinnacle bookmaker combo wait to the day of the game to gather as much info as possible to make a good line. More goes into that line than any other baseball line.
The only bias, IMO, is that the overs may still get a bit overbet. Sure, when the wind blows out to LCF, it can still be a slugfest, but not nearly like it used to be. Before the signage was added, I remember blindly playing overs on totals of 11 1/2 or higher. They couldn't make them high enough.

One other thing about Wrigley; it is very tough on LHH power. Between Billy Williams leaving and Rizzo joining the team, take a look at all the sluggers the Cubs have had. Dave Kingman, Ryne Sandberg, Cey, Andre Dawson, George Bell, Sosa, Aramis Ramirez, Derek Lee, Alphonso Soriano. All were RH hitters. I think it that span they've had maybe three LH hitters hit over 20 HRs in a year. Leon Durham a few times, Bobby Murcer once and I can't remember any others. What Rizzo has done there is very impressive.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Don't know how you get a edge playing a Cub total based on wind. You might have when the stardust put up the line,but the pinnacle bookmaker combo wait to the day of the game to gather as much info as possible to make a good line. More goes into that line than any other baseball line.
The thing about Wrigley that is attractive to overs is the stadium is built lower than the rest of the stadiums. In most every stadium, a high fly ball is 2nd deck which is really 3rd deck with all of the skyboxes. The low roof at Wrigley isn’t blocking the wind. Now the problem is the two new message boards are doing it.
 
The only bias, IMO, is that the overs may still get a bit overbet. Sure, when the wind blows out to LCF, it can still be a slugfest, but not nearly like it used to be. Before the signage was added, I remember blindly playing overs on totals of 11 1/2 or higher. They couldn't make them high enough.

One other thing about Wrigley; it is very tough on LHH power. Between Billy Williams leaving and Rizzo joining the team, take a look at all the sluggers the Cubs have had. Dave Kingman, Ryne Sandberg, Cey, Andre Dawson, George Bell, Sosa, Aramis Ramirez, Derek Lee, Alphonso Soriano. All were RH hitters. I think it that span they've had maybe three LH hitters hit over 20 HRs in a year. Leon Durham a few times, Bobby Murcer once and I can't remember any others. What Rizzo has done there is very impressive.
Considering how much better Wrigley is for RHH than LHH, it also makes sense that its been better for RH starters than lefties. In 50 years of watching the Cubs, who have been their best lefty starters? Lester and Ken Holtzman come to mind. Not many others. It also makes the trade for Quintana (for Jimenez) look even more suspect.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Considering how much better Wrigley is for RHH than LHH, it also makes sense that its been better for RH starters than lefties. In 50 years of watching the Cubs, who have been their best lefty starters? Lester and Ken Holtzman come to mind. Not many others. It also makes the trade for Quintana (for Jimenez) look even more suspect.
Ted Lilly and Steve Trout is all I have besides your two.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Played under 9 -104 in Cubs game (FD)

So much for this. Anderson went out in the 1st ining with a knee injury, extended BP use for Milwaukee today.
 
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