2021 Baseball Picks, Fades, Info, Group Discussion

V

Valuist

EOG Master
IWishIWasAPro said:
Cubs/Padres Arrieta vs Darvish (I think) Cubs + 176 Padres -210 currently o/u 8 juiced to under -118

What are peoples thoughts on this game? I find it intriguing.
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I'm a lifelong Cub fan but I have no problem betting against them when the situation dictates. I can't make any case for betting them today. Arrieta off game scores of FIVE and 22 in his last 2 starts. That is really bad. Sometimes we can overlook one poor start but two consecutive horrendous starts and we start wondering if there's a physical issue. Darvish a clear top line starter. Both bullpens are top 10, so the real edge is in starting pitching. Cubs dead last in WRC+ the past 7 days. I never lay a run and a half with a home team but I will lay a half run first 5.

What team has the best WRC+ in the past 7 days? None other than Baltimore, who has been killng lefties all season.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
IWishIWasAPro said:
Cubs/Padres Arrieta vs Darvish (I think) Cubs + 176 Padres -210 currently o/u 8 juiced to under -118

What are peoples thoughts on this game? I find it intriguing.
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Not only is Baez still out, Bryant also out of the lineup for the Cubs. Looks like a throwaway game for them.
 
X-Files

X-Files

2
Viejo Dinosaur said:
Texas and Arizona can’t win on the road…both teams are in the midst of long losing streaks…
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www.azcentral.com

Arizona Diamondbacks, losers of 19 straight on the road, nearing historic MLB low in 2021

How much time does Torey Lovullo have left as manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks?
www.azcentral.com

"On Wednesday, they dropped a 4-0 game to the A's, their 19th consecutive loss on the road.

It is the longest streak of consecutive losses in Major League Baseball since the 1985 Pittsburgh Pirates dropped 19 games in a row away from home."
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
A betting value question for today's game. So Nats are -170s which is way too rich for my blood. Can't lay this price on an otherwise mediocre team even with a good pitcher. The five inning line is slightly higher, recognizing the starters discrepancy. Nats -0.5 on the five inning line is -120 and Scherzer is +100 to record a win at Pointsbet.

Questions are is there value betting him to get a win? Or is there better value laying the -0.5 and paying a little juice? Trying to game theory out here what are proper adjustments when you have an ace pitcher that you know the manager is going to leave out there 5 innings unless he's getting shelled making a win seem fairly likely if they lead after 5. Are the Nats going to blow enough games to where the extra 20 cents is worth it, especially considering the offset that the Nats could be tied or slightly behind after 5 but win it in the 6th or 7th when Scherzer might still be pitcher of record.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
WildBill said:
A betting value question for today's game. So Nats are -170s which is way too rich for my blood. Can't lay this price on an otherwise mediocre team even with a good pitcher. The five inning line is slightly higher, recognizing the starters discrepancy. Nats -0.5 on the five inning line is -120 and Scherzer is +100 to record a win at Pointsbet.

Questions are is there value betting him to get a win? Or is there better value laying the -0.5 and paying a little juice? Trying to game theory out here what are proper adjustments when you have an ace pitcher that you know the manager is going to leave out there 5 innings unless he's getting shelled making a win seem fairly likely if they lead after 5. Are the Nats going to blow enough games to where the extra 20 cents is worth it, especially considering the offset that the Nats could be tied or slightly behind after 5 but win it in the 6th or 7th when Scherzer might still be pitcher of record.
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I think you have to factor in the bullpen. I have SF ranked 18th in pen and Wash 20th, so not much of a difference. Teams like the White Sox and Cubs should be bet full game to take advantage of their strong bullpens while teams like Houston, Oakland and St Louis have weak to poor bullpens and should be played first 5. Granted how one ranks pens can be highly subjective. But in this case, there's little different in quality of the 2 pens. SF 136 WRC+ the past week while Wash a terrible 74 so the Giants a big advantage in recent hitting.
 
TobyTyler

TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
I can't answer but found the SP to win bet intriguing when often around +100 for a game in - 175 to - 200 range

Nats bats been terrible lately. 2nd to last in all of MLB vs righties woba last two weeks. O nly Texas and Wash below .250
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Valuist said:
I think you have to factor in the bullpen. I have SF ranked 18th in pen and Wash 20th, so not much of a difference. Teams like the White Sox and Cubs should be bet full game to take advantage of their strong bullpens while teams like Houston, Oakland and St Louis have weak to poor bullpens and should be played first 5. Granted how one ranks pens can be highly subjective. But in this case, there's little different in quality of the 2 pens. SF 136 WRC+ the past week while Wash a terrible 74 so the Giants a big advantage in recent hitting.
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Certainly agree on that, pens matter. Only reason why I still bet a lot of full games is the pricing and juice are usually better, but a few teams you really have to consider shortening the game especially if there is not much or no premium or discount in the pricing. I did take the Rockies +195 on the 5 inning line today for that exact reason.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
I think the White Sox are going to really miss Madrigal. This guy was total "old school". Smart player, does the little things, doesn't give a shit about his exit velo, will hit the opposite way and actually changes his approach with 2 strikes. One things for certain, the 2022 White Sox are going to win a ton of games if Jimenez, Robert and Madrigal are back to 100%. I'm shocked they've done as well as they have missing Jiminez and Robert. But after one go-around the league, the are onto Mercedes and he's coming back to earth. On the mound, Rodon figured to be a #4 or 5 starter and he's been their best starter so far.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
TobyTyler said:
^ as season goes on I like to look at previous 30 days for mor rrecent foem
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Totally agree. Full season stats get stale.

Wash/SF back on today after getting rained out yesterday. Same pitchers. Have to wonder is there any effect on starting pitchers who are supposed to pitch one day, only to have the game cancelled, and come back a day later. Will they be better with one more day rest? Or is there a letdown after getting "geared up" to pitch on the original day? Many players are creatures of habit, and messing up the routine may be bad. And then again, to a guy like Scherzer, it may make no difference at all.
 
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X-Files

X-Files

2
"The Orioles started the year with an 11-6 record on the road and since then they have remarkably failed to win a single road game."

Free Major League baseball picks daily, MLB pitchers analysis, MLB odds, MLB best bets, sherwood's baseball picks

Free Major League Baseball picks daily with in-depth analysis throughout the regular season and playoffs, Major League Baseball best bets
www.sportswagers.ca www.sportswagers.ca

If that is true, then they are 0-14 in their last 14 road games. Assuming 11-20 is their correct road record now, as per:

www.mlb.com

Spring Training Standings

The official standings for Major League Baseball
www.mlb.com www.mlb.com
 
C

cheapseats

EOG Master
Question. I'm watching the Dodgers v Philly game. Home plate ump is a mess. I'm thinking under in game is a good angle as hitters are clueless. Anybody got thoughts.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Angels did lose yesterday despite TWO middle infielders getting 4 hits.

This Colorado home/road dichotemy is very real. Marquez and Gray have figured out how to pitch in Coors and Gomber looks like he's figured it out as well. They still are a nightmare on the road and their bullpen is a mess but that F5 price of +140 yesterday was a gift.
 
Heim

Heim

EOG Master
I was surprised the Halos got some money yesterday. You don't have to look at
the metrics to know Bundy not the same pitcher as last year.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Heim said:
I was surprised the Halos got some money yesterday. You don't have to look at
the metrics to know Bundy not the same pitcher as last year.
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Step up in competition crushed them, going from a run of wins against sad sack teams to a real contender.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
MrTop said:
glasnow of tampa could be gone for the year and most or all of 2022 if therapy does not work.
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That was one bizarre press conference by Glasnow last night. He admitted breaking the rules, then tried to rationalize it. This is what we've come to; "yeah I cheat, but when I don't cheat, I can get hurt. Therefore allow me to cheat the rest of the season".
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Quite a high pct of these "Spin Doctors" are SoCal products. Four going today: Cole, Giolito, Canning and Mahle. Glasnow is yet another one. And the most famous one may be Trevor Bauer. What's going on in the youth leagues of LA? Ian Anderson the lone non-SoCal spin doctor starting today.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Valuist said:
Quite a high pct of these "Spin Doctors" are SoCal products. Four going today: Cole, Giolito, Canning and Mahle. Glasnow is yet another one. And the most famous one may be Trevor Bauer. What's going on in the youth leagues of LA? Ian Anderson the lone non-SoCal spin doctor starting today.
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I don't think these guys were the same coming up, the spin increases came later on in their careers. Cole was trending the wrong way until he got to Houston. Giolito was awful his second full season, looked like he might bust as well and then "figured it out the next season". Something leaguewide caught on around 2018-2019, where these guys were from had little to do with it.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
WildBill said:
I don't think these guys were the same coming up, the spin increases came later on in their careers. Cole was trending the wrong way until he got to Houston. Giolito was awful his second full season, looked like he might bust as well and then "figured it out the next season". Something leaguewide caught on around 2018-2019, where these guys were from had little to do with it.
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You could be right. It's just funny how so many of them from the LA area. Maybe just coincidental.
 
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