2021 MLB thread

Valuist

EOG Master
SEA Servais has to get some votes to win AL manager of the year. With the exception of Haniger, this teams lineup
is garbage. Seager is barely hitting his weight, yet still in the WC race.

The GM trades their closer in the midst of a winning streak and they keep rolling.

Agree Servais should be in mix for Manager of the Year, but disagree Haniger is the only solid bat. Ty France is very solid. Seager is clearly not a perfect hitter with his 130 Ks and low average but sometimes dangerous with 29 HRs. Their bullpen has been solid. Reminds me a little of Texas a few years ago, although that Texas team was better 1-3 in their rotation. Hard to be really sold on the top 3 for the M's, and the 4th and 5th slots are poor. They will win the 4-3 games and lose the 10-2 games.
 
Presently T4 tied at 1:

"BALTIMORE -1½ +187 over L.A. Angels

1:10 PM EST. Two horrible starters here. First up is Keegan Akin (LHP - BAL) who happens to be Exhibit A in outlining the danger and intrigue of small sample sizes. Akin missed a little over two weeks with COVID issues and has pitched to a 7.04 ERA over 15 innings since his return. Before then, he was starting regularly with little success. A long history of shaky control doesn’t help either. The sum of those extremes profiles him like many others: a high-risk, moderate-reward play.

Then there’s 24-year-old Jaime Barria (RHP - LAA), who is 3-2 after just seven appearances with five of those coming as a starter. Barria has 17 K’s in 31 innings. A small sample this year combined with shiny surface stats last year will reel some in but there are three reasons you should not follow suit. 1) Disaster starts % is 2x higher than quality starts %. 2) he's a flyball pitcher with marginal stuff; 3) tiny HR/F likely to regress to its prior baseline. This is a weak starter pitching for a team that doesn't give a f**k about this game.

One of these teams is very likely going to win by two runs or more. Baltimore snapped a 19-game losing streak yesterday, which sets up an angle we like. That being to bet on teams after snapping a long losing streak because the weight has been lifted and it’s truly amazing what one victory can do to a team’s psyche. Furthermore, the Angels fly home after this one for a weekend battle with the Padres that figures to draw a lot of fans and media. Angels looking ahead and will probably sit some regulars. Great value here.

 
Baltimore covers the spread, but just barely, 13-1 ;

"Washington +175 over N.Y. METS

7:10 PM EST. Paolo Espino (RHP - WAS) has a 9.42 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in August, with a 5.16 xERA. Meanwhile, the Mets have a .636 OPS in August, second-worst in all of the league. When these two forces of terrible baseball collide, it might cause a break in the space-time continuum. Look, we don’t care if Paolo Espino had an ERA of 20.00. He is not our target here. The New York Mets with Rich Hill on the mound cannot be favored like it’s 1971 and Hill is Tom Seaver.

Coincidence or not (not), Rich Hill (LHP - NYM) has been a mess since the crackdown on sticky substances began (5.25 ERA, 1.43 WHIP over 13 games started since June 12th), with skills to match (5.15 xERA in June, 5.61 in July, 6.12 in August), and the Nationals have remained a dangerous offense even after the trade deadline, posting a .760 OPS in August. The Nats have also been the second best offense in the entire league against southpaws. It’s really tempting to play Washington -1½ +250, but the price here is so absurd and so good that we must play it. At worst, this is a 50/50 proposition."

MIAMI -1½ +244 over Cincinnati

7:10 PM EST. Still one of the most undervalued teams in the biz, Miami offers up great value here after snapping a 9-game losing streak with consecutive wins over the Nationals. They’ll go for three in a row here but more importantly, they are a young and very talented team that just got a booster shot of confidence.

Zach Thompson (RHP - MIA) seemed like a desperation call-up after a series of injuries decimated the Miami rotation. He was working long relief in Triple-A, and had only built up to a max of 3 IP at the time—but he has surprisingly turned into one of their best starters. Low hit and HR/F rates and a high strand rate have helped though, leaving his xERA more than a run-and-a-half higher, and suggesting his skill level is more that of a back-end starter. That said, there has still been some skill growth here worth noting. He's striking out more batters than ever, and his above-average swing & miss rate suggests there's even potentially room for a little more, with his curveball (20.9% usage, 15.9% swing and miss) and change-up (10.9% usage, 21.2% swing & miss) leading the way. Give us a pitcher with good off-speed stuff and we’ll gladly take our chances.

Meanwhile, Wade Miley (LHP - CIN) is sweet fade material because his surface numbers are so good (2.88 ERA). Miley’s hard hit % last game was 42%. That’s the highest we recall seeing this year. He throws 88 MPH on his best day. He’s very simply another pitcher whose second-half performance (2.57 ERA over 9 games) is diverging from his skills (4.75 xERA). Wade Miley is the epitome of getting it done through smoke and mirrors. He just faced the Marlins when Miami was in a bad way and struggled (4.2 IP, 3 BB, 3 K). Miami is not in a bad way anymore.


 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
The Cubs have had a 6-0 and 7-0 1st inning lead this year and have been blown out. The White Sox were +350 live in the 1st inning down 6.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
I happened to be in the Chicago area yesterday and today. That slugfest last night should be of no surprise to anyone. When I drove by Sox Park yesterday mid afternoon, it was a sweltering 94 degrees, and with ultra high humidity. It was incredibly uncomfortable. By game time, the temp was allegedly "only" 85 degrees, but I suspect higher. I saw three pitchers on the Cubs who were red faced during the game; they looked borderline heat stroke. And they weren't as bad as Keuchel, who lasted one inning with 6 runs and around 40 pitches. Keuchel's ZZ Top like beard made it impossible to see if he was as red faced as his Cub counterparts but I wouldn't be surprised if he was, given LaRussa's quick hook. One could see Keuchel drenched in sweat. Today is forecasted to be the hottest day of the year. Will the hitters be tired? I doubt it. Hitters love these conditions. Pitchers? Not so much. Lance Lynn is in excellent form but at 280 lbs and clearly carrying some excess, I suspect he and Mills both struggle. I would bet this 8 1/2 over as I suspect it closes at the key 9.
 
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Valuist

EOG Master
Gregory Polanco DFA'd by the Pirates.

 
Gregory Polanco DFA'd by the Pirates.

He's a mess now, but some team probably picks him up. I was kind of surprised DBacks waived Cabrera and couldn't get at least some asset for him, far more valuable bench bat than Polanco.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
joey gallo hitting.146 and whiffing 41% since the yankees got him


rizzo hitting .222


both are giving the yanks better defense at 1st and the outfield for sure.


the reason the yanks moving the numbers is stanton and judge
 

Heim

EOG Master
Ohtani will win MVP hands down but has anyone noticed what Royal catcher Perez is doing?

5th consecutive game with a dinger and 12 RBIs in SEA series.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
He's a mess now, but some team probably picks him up. I was kind of surprised DBacks waived Cabrera and couldn't get at least some asset for him, far more valuable bench bat than Polanco.

I didn't realize how bad Polanco has been. Nearly 500 at bats 2020-2021 and hitting under .200, and nowhere near the power to offset the poor average. His 2016 and 2018 were good enough to merit another chance, but this guy was really hyped when he came up. Not all prospects live up to expectations.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
I don't know if he has a nickname, but Jonathan India should be ROY

If there's betting, I'm sure India is the favorite. And probably was a heavy favorite until this past weekend when Wisdom hit the 4 home runs to get to the 25 HR mark.. He's a 2 outcome guy but nowadays they don't seem to mind.
 
DETROIT -1½ +170 over Minnesota

2:10 PM EST. Yesterday we ended our writeup on Milwaukee to beat Minnesota with this:

Without going into a lot of detail, we like the situation for the Crew too, which we will elaborate on tomorrow in a game we’re 100% targeting.

Well, this is “tomorrow” and this is the game we’re targeting, which goes back to an angle we have discussed before. Minnesota just played a interleague series with the Brewers and while it meant nothing to the Twins, it still had to be a little exciting to play a team so close in proximity that they rarely see. Surely some fans of the Crew made the 4 to 7-hour trip to see their team play in Minnesota. The Twinkies won the first two games of that series but more importantly, they had to fly out afterward for this early start in Detroit to make up for a rained out game earlier in the year. For the Twinkies, this is a one-game, one day stop to Detroit before they fly right back hom for a series against the Cubs starting tomorrow. We cannot overemphasize what an inconvenience this one-off game is. We’re sure that there isn’t a single person on the Twins’ roster that wants to make this one-day trip for an afternoon game in sweltering heat.

To recap, the Twins schedule is/was three at home versus Milwaukee followed by one game in Detroit and then they'll be back home for a two-game set v the Cubs starting tomorrow. Baseball at this level takes 100% mental concentration or focus. Take away half that and it leaves a team extremely vulnerable. Also consider that the Twins are not in any playoff chase and it makes this game even more of a hassle for the entire squad.

The pitching matchup matters not. The lineups matter not. This is a strong situational play on the Tigers that you should jump on ASAP because the fact that Detroit is an underdog (at the time of this writing) is absurd.


CINCINNATI -1½ +109 over St. Louis

6:40 PM EST. After a horrible start to the year, Luis Castillo (RHP - CIN) is back in Cy Young form and then some. Dude has a sick 60% groundball rate over his last five starts, not to mention an even sicker 14% hard hit ball rate over that same span. His ERA over that span is 4.58 but his xERA is 2.60, which is best in the majors over the past five-game. In other words, no starter in the game is performing better than Luis Castillo is right now. He’ll now face a Cardinals' nine that just lost four of their past seven games to the Pirates in back-to-back weekends.

In a massive series to start the week, this is one of the biggest starting pitching mismatches of the year. We faded Jon Lester (LHP - St. L) last game out in Detroit and somehow this stiff managed to wiggle out of jam after jam in a 3-2 Cardinals win. Detroit outhit the Cards 11-5, had two base-runners thrown out and Lester came out smelling like a rose when in fact, he stunk the joint up again with a line-drive rate of 53%. We have not seen a line-drive rate of 53% ever. Lester’s xERA last game was 8.23 but as luck would have it, every ball was hit at someone. Over his past 25 frames, Lester has walked 11 and struck out 12. As we have reiterated before, Lester has experienced some control issues lately while running into too many bats. He is putrid, his arm is dead and he's pure fade material, thus, the attack on him must continue.

 

kane

EOG master
There's also one big difference, I don't know if voters take this into consideration, but Wisdom's AB's are coming in meaningless games whereas India is playing in pressure packed games
 

Valuist

EOG Master
There's also one big difference, I don't know if voters take this into consideration, but Wisdom's AB's are coming in meaningless games whereas India is playing in pressure packed games

LOL. Agreed 100%. But based on the current thinking, there's no such thing as pressure. Everyone is a robot; strikeout, walk or homer.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
And wouldn't any situational issues for the Twins be bigger tomorrow? Of course, the Cubs are so bad, it may not matter.
 
MINNESOTA -1½ +125 over Chicago

8:10 PM EST. John Gant (RHP - MIN) was acquired by Minnesota on Friday, July 30, in exchange for LHP J.A. Happ. Gant is 28 years-old and the Cardinals grew tired of his act of walking too many people (62 BB in 96 frames) so they traded him but trust us when we suggest that this guy can pitch. His stuff is nasty and all he needs is a team to swing at his stuff they can’t hit (outside the zone). Gant couldn't have handpicked a better nine to dominate than the Cubs send to the plate these days.

John Gant has a 16% swing and miss rate. His groundball rate is off the charts at 58%. Since joining the Twins he has walked six batters and struck out 20 in 16 innings. A change of scenery or pitching coaches or both could have made a world of difference to this talented but wild starter but he absolutely has the stuff to mow down lineups.

Zach Davies (LHP - CHC) was never likely to repeat his 2020 breakout, but this horrendous crash to a 6.00 xERA and 1.58 WHIP has been extreme. Even if he regresses toward his xBB% and 18% xK%, that’s still an abysmal 7% K-BB%. Things will likely get a little better for him eventually, but this is a pitcher whose downside greatly outweighs any possible limited upside. Furthermore, the Twins have Byron Buxton back in the lineup and when he plays, Minnesota’s chances of winning increase dramatically. Buxton is not only a massive offensive threat, he’s perhaps the best CF in the game. The Twins are a different team when he’s in the lineup while the Cubbies remain the dregs of baseball right now.

DETROIT -1½ +185 over Oakland

7:10 PM EST. Tarik Skubal (LHP - DET) seems to be tweaking his approach over the past month in an effort to reduce some of his volatility. Skubal has thrown more first-pitch strikes (68%) than during any stretch in his MLB career, and after putting up a risky 37% ball% in the first half, he has trimmed that mark to a 34% ball% in the second half. Dude has 144 K’s and just 42 walks in 128 frames. His swing & miss rate is 12.1% but it was 18% in his last 21 inning pitched. Tark Skubal is on his way to being one of the best starters in baseball but today he’s priced like he’s Matt Moore.

Speaking of Matt Moore, Cole Irvin (LHP - OAK) makes Matt Moore look like Sandy Koufax. Irvin is favored here because he pitches for the A’s and because he comes in with a 3.68 surface ERA, which is one of the more remarkably lucky profiles we’ve ever seen. To begin, Irvin exited his previous outing with a minor hip issue so there’s that. Secondly, dude has struck out a lousy 97 batters in 144 frames. That would be acceptable if he had a strong groundball lean but he does not with a groundball/fly-ball rate of 36%/39%. By comparison, one could look at a starter like Milwaukee’s Brett Anderson, who has struck out 54 batters in 86 innings but has a groundball lean of 63%

Over his last five starts, Cole Irvin has struck out 13 batters over 27 innings and walked 10 for a horrible ratio. His swing & miss rate over that span was 6.1%. This is a starter that is sporting a 3.68 ERA but has a 6.42 xERA over his last 10 starts and 6.22 xERA over his last five starts. There is luck and then there is a dude like Cole Irvin who has somehow managed to get a high percentage of batters to hit the ball right at someone. It is inevitable that many of those balls are going to start dropping in and/or finding holes in the infield. Cole Irvin is not only the luckiest pitcher in baseball, he owns some of the worst skills and will be badly exposed soon. Keep fading him.

 

Valuist

EOG Master
Unders now 61-88 since August 20 (59%). Hitter burnout? Or just numbers inflated from the past 3 months? Dodgers on a 1-12-2 under run, Detroit 1-9 to the under, Reds 6 straight unders and Atlanta 1-7-2 to the under.
 
Unders now 61-88 since August 20 (59%). Hitter burnout? Or just numbers inflated from the past 3 months? Dodgers on a 1-12-2 under run, Detroit 1-9 to the under, Reds 6 straight unders and Atlanta 1-7-2 to the under.
Overs were ahead on the year before that, now slightly towards under for the season. Just normal fluctuations you see every year.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
LOL. Agreed 100%. But based on the current thinking, there's no such thing as pressure. Everyone is a robot; strikeout, walk or homer.

And Wisdom is the ultimate robot.

At the plate, for sure.

At third base, his outstanding defense has surprised me.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Ohtani will win MVP hands down but has anyone noticed what Royal catcher Perez is doing?

5th consecutive game with a dinger and 12 RBIs in SEA series.

I was shocked the other day when I heard Perez had 37 homers on the season.

It seems every time I need "Salvy" to do anything at the plate, it's a 6-4-3 double play.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
And Wisdom is the ultimate robot.

At the plate, for sure.

At third base, his outstanding defense has surprised me.

He has been good defensively. That surprised me too. But that K rate of nearly 40% of all plate appearances is a killer. I suspect 2022 is going to be much tougher for Pee Whiz after once around the league.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Overs were ahead on the year before that, now slightly towards under for the season. Just normal fluctuations you see every year.

Somewhat predictably. Cold weather keeps stats deflated initially, but eventually several months of heat get figured into the stats so the once too low totals become too high. And then come the unders.
 
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