A gambler's dilemma

John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: A gambler's dilemma

Consecutive posts from Merlin, McIrish, Billy, Drink and Howid.

Drink and Billy provided the long and short of it while McIrish's contribution felt a lot like Try's earlier post.

Thanks for sharing, men.
 
T

THE FACTSMAN

EOG Addicted
Re: A gambler's dilemma

1.You cant be a fan and be a gambler............conflict of interest

2. The second a game goes final its HISTORY..............move on

3. BAD BEATS..........silliest gambling term ever until someone tells me what a good beat is.

4. The ROI or what % of your bankroll to risk is silly as well...........what determines ones bankroll ?
your net worth ?
Generally peoples so called bankroll is amount they set aside they can afford to lose
so if your prepared to lose...............why bother fucking betting.

END OF THE DAY...........do your homework, find a edge, bet the best number you can
get some rosary beads and knock out a Hail Mary and a few our fathers

LET THE CHIPS FALL
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: A gambler's dilemma

THE FACTSMAN said:
1.You cant be a fan and be a gambler............conflict of interest

2. The second a game goes final its HISTORY..............move on

3. BAD BEATS..........silliest gambling term ever until someone tells me what a good beat is.

4. The ROI or what % of your bankroll to risk is silly as well...........what determines ones bankroll ?
your net worth ?
Generally peoples so called bankroll is amount they set aside they can afford to lose
so if your prepared to lose...............why bother fucking betting.

END OF THE DAY...........do your homework, find a edge, bet the best number you can
get some rosary beads and knock out a Hail Mary and a few our fathers

LET THE CHIPS FALL
Click to expand...

Sounds like four of The Ten Commandments, especially with the prayer references to Hail Marys and Our Fathers.

Joe, you missed your late father's great line, "If you have two, why do you need one?"

I heard a horse owner on TVG last month say, "I got money, I don't need to gamble."
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
Re: A gambler's dilemma

bad beats ??? if you can't take losing ... quit

if you don't want to spend money on information ... don't bother betting.
 
GameBred

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
Re: A gambler's dilemma

John Kelly said:
Here's a tough question for sports bettors, horseplayers and poker enthusiasts:

How do you stay positive outside the gambling arena despite painting every worst-case scenario and fearing the worst when inside the gambling world?

Sports bettors who play underdogs always think about losing to the number in overtime, horseplayers think negatively or lack confidence when spreading themselves too thin and covering too many numbers in multi-race wagers and poker players are always thinking about the number of possible cards or "outs" to get beat "on the river."

I'm a positive person by nature but gambling is tough on the psyche.
Click to expand...

Don't worry about what is going to happen, only what needs to be done.
 
DrunkenGoon

DrunkenGoon

EOG Dedicated
Re: A gambler's dilemma

Drink - All great points but I disagree with the staying up late part. Unless you're betting those games live, make your pvr your friend. Get up at 7:00 instead,watch those games with a bit more clarity and maybe you'll pick up some early news and a slow overnight line instead.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: A gambler's dilemma

Now, MrTop, GameBred and Goon contribute clever commentary.

Where's Voodoo to complete this fabulous foursome?
 
DrunkenGoon

DrunkenGoon

EOG Dedicated
Re: A gambler's dilemma

MrTop said:
bad beats ??? if you can't take losing ... quit

if you don't want to spend money on information ... don't bother betting.
Click to expand...

You can do well without paying for information and still be well informed. I agree at some level paying for REAL information makes sense, but you have to clarify what you mean by information. It's not tout picks and trends, that's for sure.

What I mean is stuff like big syndicates having multiple beat writers on their payroll for each team, always in the know what's going to move the markets and when, the guys that move things drastically by making 5-6 digit plays on a consistent basis.
 
B

billysink

EOG Dedicated
Re: A gambler's dilemma

Never put yourself on the podium when you win, never ever knock a man down when he loses.

Have a healthy appetite at the window but don't overeat.

Gambling mirrors life but it ain't life.




Great thread here, really enjoyed men talking.
 
Neveragain

Neveragain

EOG Dedicated
Re: A gambler's dilemma

I believe that gamblers need a holistic view about yourself to manage the emotional swings

This also helps to reduce depression and anxiety from life's disappointments in general.
Also it's good to talk to others which serves to regulate behavior and thinking.
 
alldaycapper

alldaycapper

EOG Veteran
Re: A gambler's dilemma

I have actually taken a break from nba for the first time in 7 years.

For the last 7 years the nba was my bread and butter. Always have done well in football too but not like basketball. If you’ve followed my plays in the best bet thread I had many one possession losses and wins. I don’t see value anymore in the nba. The numbers I run are very close to the number in the book.

I’ve decided to find the best in season trends and stick with them as much as possible next year. Playing against golden st in the 1h was a nice money maker this year. I’m not going to try and beat the books daily in b-ball anymore. I don’t think it can be done.
 
C

ChuckyG

EOG Master
Re: A gambler's dilemma

trytrytry said:
if you play +ROI situations long term none of that matters. just feel confident in what your doing.. if playing for action or -EV, then slow way down, it's just for fun and entertainment then.

tell yourself that but never wager enough to put your mind on tilt or over frustration and that amount might be quite a bit less than your Kelly calculator. know your brain chemistry on losses. the brain acts differently on wins. you value them much less than you hate the loss of a same amount.
Click to expand...

I agree with this. If u believe in karma...you're the type of guy who believes in Palm Readers. It's about getting it in good, that's it.
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
Re: A gambler's dilemma

THE FACTSMAN said:
1.You cant be a fan and be a gambler............conflict of interest

2. The second a game goes final its HISTORY..............move on

3. BAD BEATS..........silliest gambling term ever until someone tells me what a good beat is.

4. The ROI or what % of your bankroll to risk is silly as well...........what determines ones bankroll ?
your net worth ?
Generally peoples so called bankroll is amount they set aside they can afford to lose
so if your prepared to lose...............why bother fucking betting.

END OF THE DAY...........do your homework, find a edge, bet the best number you can
get some rosary beads and knock out a Hail Mary and a few our fathers

LET THE CHIPS FALL
Click to expand...

bad beat means you were a -500 or more chalk in game, or mythical in game if no real in game exists and lost, a good beat is you were a +500 dog in game at some point and won.

I usually experience at least one of these a day, but bad beats outweigh good beats, if you're sharp. chronic whiners will bring up bad beats often.
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
Re: A gambler's dilemma

DrunkenGoon said:
You can do well without paying for information and still be well informed. I agree at some level paying for REAL information makes sense, but you have to clarify what you mean by information. It's not tout picks and trends, that's for sure.

What I mean is stuff like big syndicates having multiple beat writers on their payroll for each team, always in the know what's going to move the markets and when, the guys that move things drastically by making 5-6 digit plays on a consistent basis.
Click to expand...

paying for information is good, even if the pay is not monetary but invested time which maybe be more valuable than money, time cant be retreived
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
Re: A gambler's dilemma

you can deep dive a ufc match or tennis match by looking at current health, form, mood,travel and other stuff. Id rather gather info or commentarys than an other opinion. other people opinion are mostly distractions, especially if they work for a company that will restrict words or ideas.
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
Re: A gambler's dilemma

DrunkenGoon said:
You can do well without paying for information and still be well informed. I agree at some level paying for REAL information makes sense, but you have to clarify what you mean by information. It's not tout picks and trends, that's for sure.

What I mean is stuff like big syndicates having multiple beat writers on their payroll for each team, always in the know what's going to move the markets and when, the guys that move things drastically by making 5-6 digit plays on a consistent basis.
Click to expand...




line service... ken pom... PFF... soon to be USA today will be a pay service.... Cable , smartphone , home computer ---- little do we all know but this cost $$$

nothing is for free...if you have twitter you are paying for information by having a smartphone

all the leagues just about you have to pay extra $$$ for sports channels ........that is info. too

if you only have a flip phone and newspaper .... a little hard to bet
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
Re: A gambler's dilemma

paying for sports channels.... microsoft excel... new computer & phone every few years , bigger monitor to get the information... antivirus




now if one bets going to local library and using a flip phone to call local bookmaker....cost is very small... don't even need newspaper.. but then betting is hard... better to give up betting
 
Viejo Dinosaur

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Re: A gambler's dilemma

railbird said:
bad beat means you were a -500 or more chalk in game, or mythical in game if no real in game exists and lost, a good beat is you were a +500 dog in game at some point and won.

I usually experience at least one of these a day, but bad beats outweigh good beats, if you're sharp. chronic whiners will bring up bad beats often.
Click to expand...

As you often do....pot meet kettle...

Have never seen you say that the other side was the right play...
 
R

rdalert447

EOG Dedicated
Re: A gambler's dilemma

Get a job with benefits. Become a "specialist" and limit your bets to those specialist categories where you feel you have an edge(conference play, specific tracks/sports, etc). Even if it means cutting your volume down by 75%. Completely takes the sweat out of it and makes losses more emotionally manageable.
 
I

IWishIWasAPro

EOG Master
Re: A gambler's dilemma

You have to have a passion for what you gamble on. If you don’t, you’re not going to take the the time to dissect the sport. When you’re on a cold streak, you can’t tie a rope around your neck and end it. Likewise when you’re on a hot streak, you can’t think you’re invincible. Get out of your norm sometimes. Switch things up. Have fun. Do parlays. Do props. Never bet what you can’t afford to lose. Never. There are always going to be people sharper because they take the time to dissect information. I’ve been working on which dB will get drafted first for the past week (M.Fitzpatrick, Ward, D.James ) and I think teams are scared of Fitzpatrick because of all the talent that was around him but I just can’t pull the trigger on Ward or James yet. Darnold went from -130 to get drafted first (qb) to -250 currently at bookmaker (the past 24 hours). These are things you need to be aware of. Awareness.
 
P

pokerjoe

EOG Senior Member
Re: A gambler's dilemma

Some good stuff here.

Would add: if you're line grinding, then beats and losing streaks should get eaten up fairly quickly by your huge sample size. If you're making tens of thousands of bets a year, streaks, good or bad, get diluted.

If you're handicapping, you'll almost certainly be making fewer bets, AND you'll be making them with three clouds hanging over your head constantly.

Cloud #1: maybe, even if you've had a good history of beating a sport, you've previously just been lucky. If 10% of sports bettors beat a sport pretty good this year on luck alone, then 1% will do that two years in a row, and 1% of "all sports bettors" makes for a lot of guys completely convinced that they're winners. Winning because you're lucky feels the same as winning because you're good. So maybe you aren't really being unlucky now, maybe you're just having your previous good luck balanced out. Or as we say in poker, maybe the cards are breaking even on your sorry, luck-box self.

Cloud #2: Even if you've genuinely been a great capper in a sport, the market may have caught up to you. There are some statistical measures you can employ to somewhat detect this possibility, but the market changes can be subtle and it's always possible that you are now, for invisible reasons, the fish.

Cloud #3: Maybe you are just being unlucky, but you can be unlucky long enough to go broke. And though BR management can help, at some point, if it calls for bets so small they aren't worth making because they won't pay your bills even if you win, then you have to move on, and no whining about "unfairness" is warranted. No body else cares about your bad luck, and the only thing less valuable than sympathy is self-pity.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: A gambler's dilemma

pokerjoe said:
Some good stuff here.

Would add: if you're line grinding, then beats and losing streaks should get eaten up fairly quickly by your huge sample size. If you're making tens of thousands of bets a year, streaks, good or bad, get diluted.

If you're handicapping, you'll almost certainly be making fewer bets, AND you'll be making them with three clouds hanging over your head constantly.

Cloud #1: maybe, even if you've had a good history of beating a sport, you've previously just been lucky. If 10% of sports bettors beat a sport pretty good this year on luck alone, then 1% will do that two years in a row, and 1% of "all sports bettors" makes for a lot of guys completely convinced that they're winners. Winning because you're lucky feels the same as winning because you're good. So maybe you aren't really being unlucky now, maybe you're just having your previous good luck balanced out. Or as we say in poker, maybe the cards are breaking even on your sorry, luck-box self.

Cloud #2: Even if you've genuinely been a great capper in a sport, the market may have caught up to you. There are some statistical measures you can employ to somewhat detect this possibility, but the market changes can be subtle and it's always possible that you are now, for invisible reasons, the fish.

Cloud #3: Maybe you are just being unlucky, but you can be unlucky long enough to go broke. And though BR management can help, at some point, if it calls for bets so small they aren't worth making because they won't pay your bills even if you win, then you have to move on, and no whining about "unfairness" is warranted. No body else cares about your bad luck, and the only thing less valuable than sympathy is self-pity.
Click to expand...


Copying POKERJOE's commentary because it deserves to be headlining a page, not buried at the bottom of one.
 
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