A Hilton NFL SuperContest math model

ComptrBob

EOG Master
The discussion of football contests led me to consider what sort of math model might approximate the capper population and results in the Hilton SuperContest. The idea is to roughly assess the role of luck vs skill (long term capping ability and taking advantage of stale lines) in winning the contest.

Several data points about the Hilton SuperContest are known:
1. The number of contestants has been pretty stable, around 340 for the last 4 years (down from a peak of 505 in year 2005).
2. The overall cumulative record for the last 9 years is 126755-123461-6402, 50.66% win %.
3. A win % of 64-68% usually wins the contest.

Observations/assumptions:
The relative low cumulative win % and observing the mix of selections from week to week leads me to believe that a significant % of the population doesn't take advantage of many (if any) of the stale lines and are essentially losing bettors, i.e. handicapping ability is very low. Lets call this population "Dead Money" ("DM" - assume long-term 49.5% win %).

The remaining capper population I break into 3 groups, one called "Marginal" who would able to break against the stale lines ("M" - roughly long-term 52.4% win % cappers including partial use of the stale lines), one called "Good" ("G" - long -term 54% win % including the stale line advantage) who would win against the Hilton line, make good use of stale lines and perhaps employ some reasonable game theory at the end to maximize their $ win and one called Excellent ("E", 56% win % and all the attributes of the "G" group)

Now empirically, I have chosen 340 participants: 170 DM, 130 M, 32 G, and 8 E.

I've run some simulations on these parameters, but would first like to have comments on the set of assumptions. I would stress that this is still a very simplistic model, it doesn't account for the fact that the stale lines vary from week to week with Week 17 being particularly wild. It doesn't account for a few dropouts near the end of the contest who just quit in the final weeks. It doesn't account for various game theoretic strategies tha might be employed, but I doubt that any contestants have any sort of rigorous model to quantify/demonstate their choices as being anywhere near-optimal except in the near trivial cases of being very near only one or two contestants.

Suggestions on the problem's model/parameters would be welcome.

I'll give the results in a future post.
 

FISHHEAD

EOG Master
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

FWIW, there will be close to 450 in this years HILTON CONTEST, possibly more.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

? . . . . Suggestions on the problem's model/parameters would be welcome.? ComptrBob, in a closely related vein, what I would like to see demonstrated this season -- in real time within the context of the 85-game contest season ? are the actual results from following a purely stale lines approach to the extent available in the Hilton contest for the 2011 season ? with all other handicapping skill factored out of the purely stale lines approach results. That is, I would be interested in seeing, after the Hilton picks go in each week: (1) The up to 5 purely stale line plays specifically flagged in a post on Saturday after the Hilton picks go in and before the game results ? directed specifically to variances between the contest line and the actual market line available on the Hilton live board at the 11AM Saturday entry deadline; (2) As part of (1), in weeks where there are more than 5 line variances, the specific cut down to the only 5 entries permitted each week in the contest based upon preset specific prioritization criteria (such as, perhaps, half-point variances off a primary key number are selected over greater variances off a non-key number), all without using any other handicapping skill other than purely playing the stale numbers per the preset objective criteria; and (3) Tracking of the actual win-loss results of the pure stale line plays, both weekly and cumulatively over the season. Such an analysis would provide a datum point helping to quantify the actual real time benefit to which following a purely stale lines approach ? without reliance on any other handicapping skill whatsoever ? would contribute to a Hilton contest performance in real time in an 85-game contest season. In addition, although a similar past analysis would be necessary to fully assess the result, the analysis would provide a datum point to help determine whether there was any significant impact on a purely stale lines approach from the Hilton?s move of its contest lines release point to Wednesday afternoon from Tuesday afternoon. So does ?DM? also stand for ?Donk Masses??
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Had that broken down into paragraphs, Bob, but they didn't go through.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

“ . . . . Suggestions on the problem's model/parameters would be welcome.”

ComptrBob, in a closely related vein, what I would like to see demonstrated this season -- in real time within the context of the 85-game contest season – are the actual results from following a purely stale lines approach to the extent available in the Hilton contest for the 2011 season – with all other handicapping skill factored out of the purely stale lines approach results.

That is, I would be interested in seeing, after the Hilton picks go in each week:

(1) The up to 5 purely stale line plays specifically flagged in a post on Saturday after the Hilton picks go in and before the game results – directed specifically to variances between the contest line and the actual market line available on the Hilton live board at the 11AM Saturday entry deadline;

(2) As part of (1), in weeks where there are more than 5 line variances, the specific cut down to the only 5 entries permitted each week in the contest based upon preset specific prioritization criteria (such as, perhaps, half-point variances off a primary key number are selected over greater variances off a non-key number), all without using any other handicapping skill other than purely playing the stale numbers per the preset objective criteria;

(3) Tracking of the actual win-loss results of the pure stale line plays, both weekly and cumulatively over the season.

Such an analysis would provide a datum point helping to quantify the actual real time benefit to which following a purely stale lines approach – without reliance on any other handicapping skill whatsoever – would contribute to a Hilton contest performance in real time in an 85-game contest season. In addition, although a similar past analysis would be necessary to fully assess the result, the analysis would provide a datum point to help determine whether there was any significant impact on a purely stale lines approach from the Hilton’s move of its contest lines release point to Wednesday afternoon from Tuesday afternoon.

So does “DM” also stand for “Donk Masses?”

I've re-formatted your suggestion and I agree that this sort of analysis would shed a lot more light on the "stale line" advantage. It would be a lot of work, but I may look at the line discrepancies this year. "Donk masses" might be a good substitute for "dead money".

To Fishhead, a larger size of 450 contestants, based on past experience with the Hilton, would tend to increase the winner win % and also result in a lower cumulative win % (higher % of DMs)
 

bernardoincr

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

as a general statment i have been looking at the hilton nfl and leroy college football contests for the past two years. Applying the highest number of bets on a side in either contest will not make one a winner. so, as you suggest, there needs to be a more in depth approach.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Thanks, Bob, and thanks for the reformat. That's what I was trying to do.

Such an analysis might not fully resolve the recurring debate about stale contest lines, but it looks like it might move the debate a step forward to a more meaningful level. This is a bottom line business, and we should be talking about quantifiable results. Thanks.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Bernardo, I did similar rough analyses with a couple of years Hilton data back back in the mid 2000's and couldn't come up with a "tailing" or "fading" strategy based on Hilton consensus numbers that was worth following. Tried refining it down to consensus plays of the top 25 or the bottom 25, those "DM," players and couldn't generate what I considered to be a monetarily significant tailing or fading strategy.

And when vegasinsider tracks the top 5 Hilton and Leroy's consensus plays each year, it also doesn't produce reliable tail or fade results year-in and year-out. I understand them posting the info because people look for that sort of thing. But it's been fool's gold at least in the time that I've looked at it, both as a tail or a fade.

The consensus play numbers generate a lot of interest -- both on vegasinsider and elsewhere -- but I just haven't found it to be significant information for a bettor -- at least the way that I ran the numbers against the data that I ran them. There's a guy on another forum that has claimed -- at least at one point -- to have discerned a significant strategy. But I don't know the specifics of what he was looking at or how it's panned out over time. Even if I had found something significant in the couple of years data that I looked at, I would have to have a backtest carry out reliably over at least a run of five years of contest data to start thinking that I had anything more than an otherwise normal purely data-mining random statistical variation.

Logic is "great," but I'll take empirical results like we're talking about over logic any day of the week, and especially on Sundays. Logic has burned through many a bettor's bankroll I would imagine.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

did you take into account guys with a dozen entries a piece?

I would say less than half the 340 entries recently were unique contestants. Most definitely in its hay day more people had multiple accounts but even so I think fewer solo entry players have entered recently BECAUSE so many guys enter multiple times. So that makes the percentage of solo entry players less. But without definite data hard to put a number to it. 50% might be high, but it doesnt take too many guys with 4-5 entries apiece in a group to add up fast. 4 individual guys could end up being 15-30 contestants listed on the board.
 

ProfaneReality

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

ComptrBob makes me feel so inferior.. guy is crazy smart.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Wantit, call it delusional ego, but I beat 400 of 405 entries with a single entry in 2004, so it doesn't dissuade me. I do use the two entries -- both under an identifiable Squarepants alias -- that they now officially allow in the rules. I'll definitely play the rules by the game for every allowed advantage. But having multiple entries -- while it possibly could factor into ComptrBob's study -- isn't the same as having even a single money-finish entry. As Tyson says, everyone has a strategy until they get hit.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Wantit, call it delusional ego, but I beat 400 of 405 entries with a single entry in 2004, so it doesn't dissuade me. I do use the two entries -- both under an identifiable Squarepants alias -- that they now officially allow in the rules. I'll definitely play the rules by the game for every allowed advantage. But having multiple entries -- while it possibly could factor into ComptrBob's study -- isn't the same as having even a single money-finish entry. As Tyson says, everyone has a strategy until they get hit.

i didnt say it couldnt be done. In those ttpes of contests it ends up being a big strategic advantage especially late when you know what guys are going to do and act accordingly. If you have 4 or 5 'live' entries left with say a month to go you are almost guaranteed to win with one of them. So you can throw away a few of them to make sure you win. While another guy would have to go perfect every week to have the same chances. Which like I say isnt possible, but going 20-0 over a month or needing less than 50% amongst a group of entries is a HUGE difference.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Yep, and it is a consideration in studying Hilton contestant performance where not all of the entries necessarily reflect a single "best" card of a player or player group.

And it's hard to quantify, as even the Hilton with the contestant entry information can't necessarily determine whether entry #382 is in truth allied with entry #275.

I would suggest, though, that using multiple entries won't come close to guaranteeing a 20-0 stretch over a four week period. Or at least someone with better math skills than my atrophied liberal arts major math skills will have to demonstrate that, lol.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

That is, to respond more accurately to what you actually said, if I'm in the hunt in the first instance coming down the stretch, I'm not going to have to go 20-0 to beat a team running multiple entries.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

They have to get their multiple entries to that same posture in the contest, and then there's a limit to what you can do with hedging and/or multiple cards. There's an absolute percentage of winning plays that the winner has to reach, regardless, and that's a beatable -- not necessarily beatable, but beatable -- percentage by a handicapper with a single entry.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

there is a strategy for all of it. A single entry, a double entry, and multiple entries. this is where the math can really come into play, and why math guys get a hard on Because they can have a little success. because it is a closed system and a finite number of results. At least when you look at how the lines move and make choices based on those.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Yeah, this is a good discussion and a good study proposal. I'd really like to see a good math guy like ComptrBob do something like this where assumptions are tested against the empirical data.

I guess my only point from a liberal arts rather than a math (wish now that I am a degenerate bettor that I had continued taking my maths rather than just relying on having placed out of the curriculum requirements) background is that a lot of common assumptions as to what happens in the contest and how it's won -- perhaps -- don't necessarily play out exactly that way when the bullets start flying and contestants are putting in five picks a week in real time.

But my own assumptions as to all that also aren't reliably backtested. So, like I say, a good discussion and a good study proposal.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Some excellent points made and questions raised.

1. Some of the old Hilton contest data I have taken from Andy Iskoe's website (Thanks Andy). He identified "consensus plays" (sides with largest number of picks and/or largest difference in # of picks) going back to 1999 in the Hilton contest. I would guess in the hope that they would give him a winning % that might even be usable against WA lines. Well no, as bernardo, et al found out, the consensus isn't any better than the lousy overall w/l %. More reason to believe that the stale lines are not recognized or played by a large number of contestants.

2. I do remember Squarepants placing well in 2004. There was also a "Spongebob" entry that year. LOL.

3. The Hilton does allow for two entries by the same capper/group. I have noticed that some organizations have 2,3 or more individuals in the contest, e.g. Sportsmemo has had Trushel, Teddy Covers, Erin Rynning and Fairway Jay all with entries under their individual names. I would guess that there is some collabration between multiple entries, however I don't think it is widespread. Some group's picks are undoubtedly correlated either explicitly or implicitly because of their methodology. I haven't modelled these effects, but would argue that by themselves don't guarantee wins. Obviously, the chances of someone with equal capabilities and two entries is at least twice that of someone with one.
 

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

i would be curious to see how many times a stale line even mattered
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

yeah iskoe had some good stuff when he was doing it, he sort of gave up though as it got more and more convoluted. And also more and more people got access to the same type of data and were willing to share it more openly.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

I remember that SpongeBob guy -- he's one of the reasons I usually sign up early so that I keep my Squarepants alias, although the Hilton at least I believe monitors that sort of thing so that some new entrant doesn't try and snag, e.g., "Fezzik" before Steve signs up.

But not an alter ego alias for me that year. That was my first year, and I was still too much of a newbie and donk to think of game theory approaches like multiple entries. Had that naive swagger belief that I could beat all comers because "I was such a good handicapper," which I almost actually pulled off but for an errant field goal. Reality set in in later years, lol.

It's always been my impression that Trushel and Rynning, et al. were each running their namesake entries for their own individual victory, even though they are affiliated at SportsMemo. That is, I don't think that Tim Trushel and Erin Rynning would do purely hedged entries so that at least one or the other could win coming down the stretch. Haven't bird-dogged it to check whether that was the case -- that they didn't do something along those lines -- but that's been my impression.

Fairly sure that many folks are registering friends, family members, and/or coworkers to run multiple entries. But the 1500 entry fee does put some limit on that for most outfits, unless I guess Billy Walters just wanted to buy the thing -- and he perhaps has bigger fish to fry.

Along wantit's point, I do pass on the big straightup football contests -- the free or low cost entry ones run by Stations and Coast/Boyd -- in part because I've stood in line behind a runner for syndicate with a literally stack of multiple alternate entries. The Hilton has far less entries, though, as again they 1500 buyin does put a fairly decent price tag on any multi-entry strategy.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

To me, there's an upside to the "extra" multiple entries by some players, it increases the pot size. I still have that naive swagger belief that I can -- can, not necessarily will -- beat all comers, and I want the biggest pot possible if and when I do.

: ^)
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

I remember that SpongeBob guy -- he's one of the reasons I usually sign up early so that I keep my Squarepants alias, although the Hilton at least I believe monitors that sort of thing so that some new entrant doesn't try and snag, e.g., "Fezzik" before Steve signs up.

But not an alter ego alias for me that year. That was my first year, and I was still too much of a newbie and donk to think of game theory approaches like multiple entries. Had that naive swagger belief that I could beat all comers because "I was such a good handicapper," which I almost actually pulled off but for an errant field goal. Reality set in in later years, lol.

It's always been my impression that Trushel and Rynning, et al. were each running their namesake entries for their own individual victory, even though they are affiliated at SportsMemo. That is, I don't think that Tim Trushel and Erin Rynning would do purely hedged entries so that at least one or the other could win coming down the stretch. Haven't bird-dogged it to check whether that was the case -- that they didn't do something along those lines -- but that's been my impression.

Fairly sure that many folks are registering friends, family members, and/or coworkers to run multiple entries. But the 1500 entry fee does put some limit on that for most outfits, unless I guess Billy Walters just wanted to buy the thing -- and he perhaps has bigger fish to fry.

Along wantit's point, I do pass on the big straightup football contests -- the free or low cost entry ones run by Stations and Coast/Boyd -- in part because I've stood in line behind a runner for syndicate with a literally stack of multiple alternate entries. The Hilton has far less entries, though, as again they 1500 buyin does put a fairly decent price tag on any multi-entry strategy.

yeah the 1500 does help a little but I remember the marc lawarence crew had about 30 entries one year, and a few other of those tout stables with more than a few. because back in the day using a headline like "hilton handicapping champ xxxx" was a big sales pitch to those guys. I remember when Tony Salinas tied those booger boys or whatever they were and he was flying high for a year running around looking to get the cheapest deal he could on double sided 3 fold printing so he could mass mail to everyone one nay mailing list he could buy.

I entered it under wantiall4moi twice but got sponsored (someone paid my entry fee)both times, and my buddy always went in as MrP (my real last name) and another one under his own nickname, and he would ask me to look at his plays. But he was pretty decent. He cashed just about every year, usually with both. Not sure if he does it now lost contact with him. So I know a few 'normal' people will throw 1500 at it. but then the prize money was enough for most and they wanted that, the free advertising was a non issue to most of them.

When I was around town I played in a few small ones, but I am not a big contest guy and didnt have tie then to use that side of my brain to win a few bucks in a contest.

But it is akin to the WSOP pre Moneymaker or the PGA pre tiger woods. Before they hit the scene prize money just wasnt there to make doing tournaments all that impressive. but as more people got into them and prizes went up it was a little more worthwhile. I think now the NFL contests have all been hit by hard times and cut backs so they might now be good for little more than trying to pad a resume of a guy trying to go tout or charge more if he is an existing tout.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

A lot of those guys definitely are going for the promotional value.

Going to be a banner year at least for the Hilton SuperContest this year as they're already out past 416 entries (on yesterday's numbers) and the first place prize no doubt has crested 250K with signups today to use the Thursday night game.

For me, the notoriety of winning would be OK. But it's all about bankroll boost for me. A first place prize would be about 160K after taxes, which is an approximately three dime bet size boost to the bankroll. And that's money for years thereafter at the betting windows. Geez, although the past is the past, I was one field goal away from having 220K more pre-tax to work with back in 04. In the intervening seven years with that bankroll . . . .
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Should have "fame, such as it is" for "notoriety." Any time you guys want to lift this 5-minute edit limit . . . . Ain't posting plays, much less past-posting them.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
and the results are ...

and the results are ...

Running 10,000 simulations of the Hilton Contest with the assumptions above give:

Grp__ %WinsContest
E____ 15.5%
G____ 25.1%
M____ 47.6%
DM___ 11.9%

Luck still plays the most important part in determining the winner. But if the model captures a reasonable mix of the relative capper skills, the capping ability and taking advantage of stale lines, they also play a very significant part in winning the contest. The "Dead Money" population of half the field produces a winner less often than the top 8 excellent cappers and much less often than the 32 good cappers.

Of course, any one of the top 8, has less than a 2% chance of winning in any one year and one of the 32 good cappers has only a 0.8% chance of winning. For example, if Fezzik is in the top 8 cappers, his chances of back-to-back wins are less than 1 in 2500. Not quite as astronomical as the completely random (1/340) * (1/340) but not as simple as just picking the stalest 5 lines.

The simulation does show that a DM capper, through luck alone, does have a very small (but not zero) shot of winning even without taking meaningful advantage of stale lines.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

FWIW, there will be close to 450 in this years HILTON CONTEST, possibly more.

Yep, #428 at 12:15 today.

A lot of extra money this year, evidently. Or maybe it's that weird, burnt-mustard colored giveaway T-shirt that reads, "I entered the Hilton Supercontest, and all I got was this lousy T-shirt."

Pretty impressive number of entries though.
 

FISHHEAD

EOG Master
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Smartypants(or others)..................


How many entries are expected in the two respective Leroy's challenges, NFL and COLLEGE?


Thanks in advance
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

ComptrBob makes me feel so inferior.. guy is crazy smart.

ComptrBob is the smartest guy I know.

Richard Witt (aka "Wildcat") of the New York Post is a close second.

I love Bob's combination of math and verbal skills.
 

Tim Patterson

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Excellent thread, Bob.
Very enjoyable read.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

We can move this particular discussion to another thread if you like, but, at the moment, it's a continuation of one the subtopics discussed in this thread.

Going into the 11AM PT selection deadline this morning, there were 11 variances, including juice, between the contest card lines (first column below) and the live marketplace lines on the Hilton board:

BAL-PIT +2.5 +1.5

ATL-CHI +3 +2.5

KC-BUF +6.5 +5.5

HOU-IND +9 +8.5

PHI-STL +4.5 +4

JAX-TEN +1.5 +2

NYG-WSH +3 +3 -120

ARI-CAR +7 +6.5

NYJ-DAL +4 +5.5

NE-MIA +7 +6.5

DEN-OAK +3 +3 EV (so -3 -120)

Now, you only get five plays a week in the Hilton contest, not 11. So there has to be some criteria to cut it down to 5 from 11 this week. And for the premise to work that it doesn't take (much) handicapping skill to win the Hilton, it's got to be a set of objective cutdown criteria that a fifth grader with no handicapping skill (which apparently would have excluded Erin Rynning back in the day) could do the cutdown to five just based on the stale lines with no handicapping skill or subjectivity involved in making the cutdown.

If the primary criterion is that variances off a primary key number -- either in points or vig -- take precedence, you would cut these 11 down to these 5:

CHI +3

WSH +3 (with no -120)

CAR +7

MIA +7

DEN -3 (with no -120)

I skin the cat other ways in the Hilton contest, with decent results so far, although I'm not oblivious to what's going on on the live board. So if someone has a different set of criteria that should be to used to cut down to the five -- and five only -- stale non-handicapping plays on the Week 1 contest card please post your thoughts before post time. Thanks.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

A couple of additional observations.

First, these line variances were just in relation to the live Hilton line at the time the contest entries went in. Some of these lines were available, just as on the contest card, at other properties, in real time, at that time. So not all of the lines were necessarily "stale" in the sense that they were unavailable in the marketplace. They were more "line shopping" variances in that, e.g., if you wanted the dog, you'd snag the +7 and if you wanted the fav, you'd snag the -6.5 if you were making live plays at the time.

Second, the NYJ-DAL line was more of a purely "stale" line, as I don't believe that you could get NYJ at -4 at that time, and you had a more than 1 point variance from the live line, and the secondary key number of 4 was involved. And that -4 was no longer a line available in the marketplace. If you include this side instead, you have to bump one of the five selected above. That doesn't necessarily render playing stale lines a failed approach for not spinning up specifically five and five only plays. But what it does mean is that you would have to exercise some discretion as to what game to discard -- and that then introduces some potential variability in grading the results.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

We can move this particular discussion to another thread if you like, but, at the moment, it's a continuation of one the subtopics discussed in this thread.

... you would cut these 11 down to these 5:

CHI +3

WSH +3 (with no -120)

CAR +7

MIA +7

DEN -3 (with no -120)

Sorry I didn't have time to respond to this before now, but I'll make a couple of comments.

Most likely the near-optimal line value is measured by using the WA consensus line at the time the Hilton contest closes. But using the Hilton line is close and the most objective way to measure the difference in line value is to use the push rate and breakeven % for each line. For this reason, I would put Jets - 4 vs -5.5 as having a bit more value than Carolina +7 vs +6.5.

Its interesting that the 5 picks CHI, WAS, NYJ, MIA, DEN are exactly Fezzik's picks for the contest !!
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Update : Hilton NFL SuperContest Math for 2011

Update : Hilton NFL SuperContest Math for 2011

Update on this year's contest: 517 contestants, first week record 987-1144-124, 46.32%, 330 picks pending going into the dual MNF games.

Only 1 person so far with a 5-0 record (name: Sans Souci), 4 have a chance at 5-0 with 1 pending pick, 2 more are 3-0 with 2 pending.

OTOH, 9 have gone 0-5, 8 more are 0-4 with 1 pending and 7 are 0-3 with 2 pending.

Really seems to confirms that with more contestants, there is a higher percentage of DM, although the ultimate winning % may be slightly higher.

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WVU

EOG Master
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

wow that's pretty shitty. forum guys > typical Hilton guys
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Yeah, Bob, re: your stale lines note a page up, it's a steep rampup for that first CFB-NFL weekend. Been having to triage things these past few days, too, and this got pushed back.

I saw that complete Fezzik correlation, too, but didn't want to run the risk of setting off the people for whom Fezzik rather than the math is the issue. Confirms that the guy is working the numbers to maximum advantage, in a context where a fair chunk of change is out there for the eventual winner.

Ran a somewhat parallel thread specifically on stale lines over on viewfromvegas.com. I don't normally cross-reference one forum on the other, but hopefully John and Dave won't mind the cross-reference here. Better than me trying to paraphrase math guys to other math guys. Donniep and Crick are the top math guys there, with Donniep perhaps being focused more on the sports side applications and Crick more to the race side. Donniep sliced the math at the #5 cutoff pick just a bit differently and had BUF +6.5 in place of DEN -3. The thread is "cryptically" titled: Can You Win the Hilton Contest Just Playing "Stale" Lines? I'll refer you to that, Bob, for Donniep's analysis placed in the context of that thread.

At this point, slicing the math as here would have the hypothetical player (i.e., the real Fezzik in this instance) produce the following results at this point with the second MNF game underway: CHI (W), WSH (W), NYJ (L), MIA (L), with DEN -3 currently in play.

Donniep's slightly different slice would have that hypothetical player (who I provisionally dubbed The Dread Pirate Roberts) grading out this way: CHI (W), WSH (W), BUF (W), CAR (P), MIA (L). Slightly better result for the Hilton contest -- for this extremely small five game sample -- than the best possible result for the "Fezzik" hypothetical (with pushes pulling a half-contest point in Hilton scoring -- at the window they would be dead even as to money cashed if Denver covers tonight). But any difference over five games of course signifies nothing, as the math is directed to an advantage that manifests itself over sample sizes "a bit" larger than five.

This fast reboot of the NFL has left me with too many spinning plates with work and in-season handicapping to follow through with the stale-lines subtopic on each forum. I'm going to track it on VFV per Donniep's substantially similar math (similar at least to a liberal arts major) to see how that math runs out on this 2011 85-game sample. If you have the time and interest to run a parallel test of any variations in your math over here, we can compare the results on the two runs at the end of the season. I suspect that the results may well be in the same neighborhood, as we're talking about fine gradations of mathematical advantage, as opposed to completely unstructured DM (or sea sponge, lol) play.
 
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Oops, they wouldn't be dead even in money at the windows -- overworked sea sponge math again -- the push of course would net the Roberts player more in pocket. Sleep deprivation.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest Math model

ComptrBob is the smartest guy I know.

Richard Witt (aka "Wildcat") of the New York Post is a close second.

I love Bob's combination of math and verbal skills.
I've read the "Wildcat" in the NY Post for years, and never knew he was Richard Witt. Thanks.12io4j2w90
 
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