A Hilton NFL SuperContest math model

John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest math model

I'm surprised the winner's percentage increases so dramatically when adding more games.
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest math model

ComptrBob said:
I updated my model to simulate/estimate the 2015 Westgate SuperContest. The #s in the (DM, M, G, E) groups I estimated at (800, 477, 330, 120) with long-term, average NFL win%s of (49%, 52%, 54.5%, 57.5%) (includes stale line advantage for better cappers).

The simulation gave the chances of winning for each group is (1.3%, 7.7%, 31.2%, 59.8%)

The overall winning % for all entrants is 51.47%, the average contest winner hit 71.6%.

Conclusion: I expect the winner to hit around 71 to 72%, but would not be surprised if an outlier of 75% occurred again this year. I expect the winner to come primarily from the Good and Excellent group (around 450 entries).
Click to expand...

For 2016, 1854 entries, I ran the same simulation (groups of 1010, 464, 280, 100, win rates 49.5%, 52%, 54.5%, 57.0%) having the overall win rate at 51.3%, and the winner hitting 71.1%. :)
 
Heim

Heim

EOG Master
Re: A Hilton NFL SuperContest math model

71.1% is also the probability they turn tout....
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
For the 2018 Westgate SuperContest, at 3123 entries, I ran the simulation (groups of 1950, 620, 380, 173, win rates 49.5%, 52%, 54.5%, 57%) having an overall win rate of 51.02%, and the winner hitting 71.81%. :)

At Week 8, the two leaders have a 80.0% win rate and the overall contest win% is 51.89%.
 
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