Abundy's official prop thread 60% winners guaranteed

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Abundy

EOG Addicted
Greek freak u13.5 rebounds s. Curry u30.5 points. L doncic u 36.5 points rebounds and assists. Augustine o4.5 assists. All -115 at bovada
 
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Abundy

EOG Addicted
Been a rough start. I am playing to many props a day. Need to scale back. Have last 3 props by a half. Have wine 0 by a half. I now I am good. New week ahead
 
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Abundy

EOG Addicted
Today we turn things around. D.Lilliard u27.5 points. D Mitchell u11 rebounds and assists. D DeRozen u6.5 rebounds. D. Gallinare o6 rebounds all -115. My guarantee is that Jammer is not a happy man
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
Just curious, if you say 60% (at least) is guaranteed and you have been betting props for years, what is your current bankroll and what is your nominal bet size (in units)?
 
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THE FACTSMAN

EOG Addicted
keep posting bundy................you'll be fine give us some rubber band plays
some good stuff.............i believe in you my friend.

just a rough patch
i feel a big run coming

shut the haters up
 
DrunkenGoon

DrunkenGoon

EOG Dedicated
ye guys of no faith. Niche markets it's where it is at, OP has the right approach, how about you give him 100 picks before you formulate an opinion...
 
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Abundy

EOG Addicted
I agree. This has been a very small sample size. I have doing player props for 20 years. The market is much sharper than even a few years ago. There use to be many middles to hit . Example Kobe o25.5 at one book and take u29.5 at another book. Shoot for the middle with only risking juice. The books are sharper now
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
DrunkenGoon said:
ye guys of no faith. Niche markets it's where it is at, OP has the right approach, how about you give him 100 picks before you formulate an opinion...
Click to expand...

Actually, even small samples can be used to form an opinion about the chances of a given capper having a specific record. In this case, the various bets are mutually independent (or at least very mildly correlated), we ignore pushes (not counted), and so the binomial expansion can be used given the handicapper's probability of success for a single event.

Assume Abundy's long term success rate is 60%. The cumulative probability, using the binomial expansion, of Abundy having 12 or fewer successes out of 28 trials is roughly 5%. In other words, we can say that the chances he is not a 60% capper are 19 out of 20.
 
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Abundy

EOG Addicted
Computer Bob. I have been betting these props for over 20 years. By normal bets are between 30-60 dollars. I use to profit about 30 grand a year hitting many middles in all sports. Almost everybody uses close to the same lines today. But have still been profiting about 15 grand a year. I have had losing weeks and rarely losing months but if I stay the course I will show a profit. Guarantee
 
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Abundy

EOG Addicted
I still would take at 19-1 odds to win the 60 percent. It might take 200 plays but I have one it the past and will do it in the present
 
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Abundy

EOG Addicted
Plays for today. At my bookie r.Westbrook u11.5 rebounds and u12.5 assists. At -115. At bovado D. Ayton u11 rebounds D. Booker u24.5 points. And at My Bookie B. Simmons u37.5 point rebounds and assists. The last 3 at -120
 
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Abundy

EOG Addicted
As you can see Computer Bob I am mostly an under player hoping for a blow out so the whole 4th quarter is garbage time and the starters don’t log more than 28 minutes keeping the unders heavily weighted
 
ChiTownJoe

ChiTownJoe

EOG Dedicated
Abundy said:
Computer Bob. I have been betting these props for over 20 years. By normal bets are between 30-60 dollars. I use to profit about 30 grand a year hitting many middles in all sports. Almost everybody uses close to the same lines today. But have still been profiting about 15 grand a year. I have had losing weeks and rarely losing months but if I stay the course I will show a profit. Guarantee
Click to expand...

Um, I don't think so
 
ChiTownJoe

ChiTownJoe

EOG Dedicated
If you were hitting 60% at -110 for 20 yrs, you have a license to print money. There is no way you would be bothering wagering $30-$60 a prop.
 
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Abundy

EOG Addicted
Chi joe. When I would have a good middle . I would bet a minimum 115 on each side. Back in time that is where I profited most. There were great middle opportunities. Especially on Super Bowl props. I was ahead of my time. I admit is is much tougher sledding in today’s market. But still opportunities.
 
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Abundy

EOG Addicted
I like it Pro. I took Young buddy to the nudie bar when he turned 18. That is where the beer gives you gas and the Buddy’s kick ass. At the nudie bar
 
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Abundy

EOG Addicted
My plays for Wednesday. A Horford u7 reb. -115 at bovada. B. Forbes u13.5 points at -115 at My bookie. E Payton u 6 assists -125 at you wager. Thank you
 
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