I initially posted this in my picks thread but I'm moving it to its own thread so as not to clutter a picks thread with other discussion.
1.) weather.gov
2.) In preseason, it's dogs, dogs, and more dogs. The only losing year I had more or less blindly betting every +150 or higher dog was 2020, and that was obviously COVID-shortened. I'm hesitant to use that strategy this year though because so far so many games are not going 9 innings yet, and that means fewer AB's for the scrubs who are the great equalizers in preseason ball.
Once the regular season starts it's overall totals trends on the macro level, and weather-specific plays on the micro level. I'll give an example of both.
I think I was fortunate to realize early on in 2017 that the ball was very obviously juiced. People say it happened after the all star break but I think it was earlier. I had great success betting overs, but once the books caught up I hung on for too long and 2017 wound up being pretty bad. I know some primarily UNDER bettors on here (Valuisr comes to mind) mentioned getting killed pretty bad early on in that season.
MLB claims a deadened baseball this year. Not sure I believe them yet but I will probably be a little more cautious early on.
Wind and humidity are everything to totals bettors, but it goes WAY beyond "the wind is blowing out at Wrigley today" or "the marine layer is in place at Petco."
I've been to every outdoor ballpark in MLB, and when I go I get there right as the gates open (usually 90 min or so before first pitch) and I circumnavigate the ballpark at least twice on foot, once on the lowest level possible and once on the highest level possible. I'm looking for potential wind tunnels while I do this.
Here's an example:
https://earth.google.com/web/@39.05160678,-94.48023728,258.08514229a,344.0754954d,35y,0h,0t,0r
This is the "K" in Kansas City. Look at the right field corner and you'll notice a gap between where the upper deck grandstand ends and a building to the right of it (which is the restaurant and bar down the right field line if you've ever been there.) That gap is one of the park entrances.
The 'K" is known for generally being a pitcher's park with a cavernous left field, which shows up quite well in that same shot. Every once in awhile though when there's a just east of due south wind (170-180 degrees on the compass) it will get funneled through that gap and will howl out to left. I'm 14-4 lifetime betting OVERS into that angle, considering no other factors.
Marine layers on the other hand are known to depress scoring, particularly in night west coast games. Not all marine layers are created equal though... The truth is a marine layer that moves in during the game will have a much larger effect than a marine layer already in place when the game begins. I'll explain why briefly:
We know that hot air rises and cold air sinks, but the only relevant factor is the temperature of a certain parcel of air relative to the surrounding parcels of air or the parcels of air that it's replacing. A parcel of air at -20 degrees will still rise if the surrounding parcels are at -30.
Marine layers are generally ocean-cooled parcels of air that move inland to replace rising warmer air that has been heated by the sun over land. The actual "sinking" motion of the air takes place while that air is in the act of replacing the warmer air, i.e. when the marine layer first moves in. It just so happens that this often coincides with the evening start times of these west coast games, as they start right around the same time that the heating of the day from the sun is lost. If the marine layer is already in place at first pitch though, it will have very little effect on the baseball, as it has already stabilized the atmosphere at that point.
The notion that the air in the marine layer is "heavy" is false. Yes, cooler air is denser than warm air is, but the higher moisture content largely offsets that. The more moisture in the air, the more buoyant it is as water vapor is actually lighter than air. It all has to do with that sinking motion as that air replaces the warmer sun-heated air.
3.) Yes, and the more games I can watch, the better. Few get more value out of their MLB Extra Innings subscription than I do. I'm kinda surprised they don't have a "special rate" just for me. LOL
Hope all this is helpful. Good luck to all in 2021.
1.) weather.gov
2.) In preseason, it's dogs, dogs, and more dogs. The only losing year I had more or less blindly betting every +150 or higher dog was 2020, and that was obviously COVID-shortened. I'm hesitant to use that strategy this year though because so far so many games are not going 9 innings yet, and that means fewer AB's for the scrubs who are the great equalizers in preseason ball.
Once the regular season starts it's overall totals trends on the macro level, and weather-specific plays on the micro level. I'll give an example of both.
I think I was fortunate to realize early on in 2017 that the ball was very obviously juiced. People say it happened after the all star break but I think it was earlier. I had great success betting overs, but once the books caught up I hung on for too long and 2017 wound up being pretty bad. I know some primarily UNDER bettors on here (Valuisr comes to mind) mentioned getting killed pretty bad early on in that season.
MLB claims a deadened baseball this year. Not sure I believe them yet but I will probably be a little more cautious early on.
Wind and humidity are everything to totals bettors, but it goes WAY beyond "the wind is blowing out at Wrigley today" or "the marine layer is in place at Petco."
I've been to every outdoor ballpark in MLB, and when I go I get there right as the gates open (usually 90 min or so before first pitch) and I circumnavigate the ballpark at least twice on foot, once on the lowest level possible and once on the highest level possible. I'm looking for potential wind tunnels while I do this.
Here's an example:
https://earth.google.com/web/@39.05160678,-94.48023728,258.08514229a,344.0754954d,35y,0h,0t,0r
This is the "K" in Kansas City. Look at the right field corner and you'll notice a gap between where the upper deck grandstand ends and a building to the right of it (which is the restaurant and bar down the right field line if you've ever been there.) That gap is one of the park entrances.
The 'K" is known for generally being a pitcher's park with a cavernous left field, which shows up quite well in that same shot. Every once in awhile though when there's a just east of due south wind (170-180 degrees on the compass) it will get funneled through that gap and will howl out to left. I'm 14-4 lifetime betting OVERS into that angle, considering no other factors.
Marine layers on the other hand are known to depress scoring, particularly in night west coast games. Not all marine layers are created equal though... The truth is a marine layer that moves in during the game will have a much larger effect than a marine layer already in place when the game begins. I'll explain why briefly:
We know that hot air rises and cold air sinks, but the only relevant factor is the temperature of a certain parcel of air relative to the surrounding parcels of air or the parcels of air that it's replacing. A parcel of air at -20 degrees will still rise if the surrounding parcels are at -30.
Marine layers are generally ocean-cooled parcels of air that move inland to replace rising warmer air that has been heated by the sun over land. The actual "sinking" motion of the air takes place while that air is in the act of replacing the warmer air, i.e. when the marine layer first moves in. It just so happens that this often coincides with the evening start times of these west coast games, as they start right around the same time that the heating of the day from the sun is lost. If the marine layer is already in place at first pitch though, it will have very little effect on the baseball, as it has already stabilized the atmosphere at that point.
The notion that the air in the marine layer is "heavy" is false. Yes, cooler air is denser than warm air is, but the higher moisture content largely offsets that. The more moisture in the air, the more buoyant it is as water vapor is actually lighter than air. It all has to do with that sinking motion as that air replaces the warmer sun-heated air.
3.) Yes, and the more games I can watch, the better. Few get more value out of their MLB Extra Innings subscription than I do. I'm kinda surprised they don't have a "special rate" just for me. LOL
Hope all this is helpful. Good luck to all in 2021.
