Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#1
I have a few handicapping theories on MLB, i'll run them up the flagpole and see if anyone salutes.

1) Consider being really careful betting on a heavy favorite. There's so much parity in this league, that there is really no reason to be wagering on -180 or -200

2) Consider fading 'name' pitchers, especially when the name pitcher's team isnt as good as the other guys team. Don't forget that if a brand name pitcher is on the hill vs a generic brand, that generic pitcher, on quite a few occasions, will raise his game to a much higher level. He'll be able to bring is A game. Know your pitcher and know if your guy is a 'gamer'. That 'gamer' guy who isnt' as good as the elite guy, can surprise you in that situation.
Betting on 'name' pitchers means that you aren't getting the best of it from a value standpoint. Go with the young, talented guy who no one has heard of. Invent your own Johan Santana and find him before everyone else does.

3) Consider staying away from pitchers who miss time and probably 'need a start', especially if they are brand name guys. Dice K comes to mind as a guy who needed a start...when a guy misses time, if he comes back as the favorite, say to yourself, "i'd like to see one"

4) Consider betting on a back class pitcher who had a bad game in his last start if that pitcher had been otherwise pitching well and just had a bad game for no particular reason. If a guy with a hundred lifetime wins or more (or, an established quality pitcher) has a bad game but otherwise had been sharp, that guy is really likely to come back strong. Guys don't win tons of games in the bigs if they have no heart......you can bet that guy who had a bad outing can't wait to get back on the hill and redeem himself.

5) Consider betting against a team who is coming home after a long road trip.

6) Consider not betting on or against a team because they are 'due' to either win or lose. Anyone who's been betting on teams who have lost the first 2 games of their series has been getting crushed recently as there have been tons of sweeps. No one is due to do anything, teams lose games because they aren't playing good enough to win and losing 2 in row doesn't mean they are due to win game 3 of the series. Just be careful here.

7) Consider falling in love with teams who have shitty records at the all star break. This MLB has SO much parity right now, anything is possible. Your all star break assignment is to look at the standings and identify which teams have overachieved in the first half and which teams have underachieved. These crappy teams, some of them, will get on a bit of a roll at some point, even if its for a short period of time. Even the worst teams win at least 60 games.

8) Always remember that you are betting against the public which means you need to continually ask yourself, "what do i know about a certain team or situation that the public doesn't really know". I call it my 'just open up the newspaper' theory. Anyone can open up the newspaper and see which pitcher has the best record or best ERA. Opening up the paper isn't going to get you winners....you need to uncover some info that's not in the mainstream and exploit it in order to be successful.

9) Consider watching as many games as you can and really observe the play and don't really worry about the final score. Many times, the score doesn't tell the tale. After the game ask yourself, "did the final score really tell the tale". If it didn't tell the tale, you might have an edge for next time.

10) Consider the 'letdown' theory. Some teams get really fired up to play other teams and then in the following series, they aren't as excited. Perfect example is the Cubs. They played a highly charged series vs The White Sox (aka the good guys) and swept them and were feeling oh so good about themselves. In come the nameless and faceless Orioles and yep, i'm sure you can guess what happened.

Ok, so there's 10 things to ponder. :pop:
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
#2
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

Could be your best post of all time. #8 is the most important IMO though all have some significants.:cheers
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
#4
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

It's amazing to me how many garbage threads get hit after hit whereas a thread that is actually informative like this one gets spit.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#7
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

good read. slow I like to see the actual STARTING lineups before Im on a team, are both backup cathers starting??? play the under, are the weak hitting middle infields playing today?
 
#9
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

Walk and Strike out RATIO is VERY IMPORTANT when HANDICAPPING BASEBALL.
 
#10
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

One could also develop a network of friends in each of the cities and share the local feel about each team (not in any printed media) or one could create a method of selection based upon certain aspects common to all games.
 
#11
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

VERY GOOD stuff FK

Hope it's okay I copy this thread to the MLB Forum :cheers
 
#12
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

Thanks man...this is what I was looking for in a thread I started a couple of days ago. Very good stuff....Thanks again! I'm sure this will help me in the future12io4j2w90
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#15
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

Few weeks away from pitchers and catchers. Time for your refresher course.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#17
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

Don't know how I missed this last year, good stuff FK. I particularly like #1, 3, 4, 6, and 10.
 
#18
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

It's amazing to me how many garbage threads get hit after hit whereas a thread that is actually informative like this one gets spit.

i agree with above statement

good tips FK, I like the last line of #7.
 
#19
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

FK (or anyone really),

Do you have any suggestions for websites that will provide the kind of information you describe as necessary in #8? I know The Sporting News used to do a pretty good job with this kind of thing, but I haven't capped baseball in a couple of years so I'm not sure what else is out there.

What I would really like to see is a website with some scout's takes on some of the younger guys (especially pitchers) who will make a roster this year.

Thanks for your help. -- Prof
 
#20
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

Does anyone else bet on a good to great starting pitcher on teams that have bad bullpens for the 1st 5 inn and then bet the other side for the game? If you get on them early and the bet the other side late you can get some pretty good #s. The Cardinals, Mets and Cleveland come to mind.
 

Johniblayze

EOG Enthusiast
#22
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

Nice thread fk, I enjoyed reading it & I can't wait to apply it on opening day.

Last night on mlb talk radio the man ram talk would not end. Is anyone else sick of hearing about that crud? I hope he stays with LA. The dodgers were a fun team to watch last year for the first time in a while.
 
#24
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

Thanks for the post this is really good info...

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unclebob53

EOG Senior Member
#25
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

FK
Just read your 08 post. Good and shows much thought. HOWEVER I take issue with some of the things and will address them one by one.
Also, I have been doing this more yrs than you have lived. Many experiments and the best system is KISS. I have never had a losing MLB yr.
Also, the game has changed. It used to be that pitchers were 90%. Then sdthe Yankees had the Fireman and it was reduced to 80%. Today it is only 50% but still the strong starting point. You now have the starting pitchers, the middle relievers and the closers. All must be considered.

This yr look at the Yankees. Last yr the SPs were iffy at best. Then they added CC. So the Spsd will be better, the middle is excellent and then the closer. They will be playing a 5 inning game, as will other teams in a similar situation. All will be favorites.

Your 1) Totally disagree. If the numbers are there, lay the juice. Also consider doing what I do in the NHL with those monster numbers. Hook that tm in a parlay.

2) Too general. "Know your pitcher" is not only correct but absolute.

3) Excellent advice.

4) Also excellent. Check on career records on sportsline.com/probables

5) Usually there is an off day to alleviate this. If not, you are correct. It is money in the bank if a tm goes from the west to east w/o a day's rest. Bet VS

6) Yes & No. Sweeps over the yrs are <50%. But rarely from a mediocre or bad tm playing away. Here a bet on the home tm having lost the first 2 is gold.

7) Correct. After the all star break go lightly as you should at the beginning of the season. Things ALWAYS change. I either go light or not bet until a tm has at least 4 gms after the break. As for the start of the season I go light until May 20.

8) Correct. Develop your system, play the numbers and tweek the system as you go along - but not too much.

9) Good advice but I don't really do this. A close examination of the box score can tell you lots.

10) This is true but I never put much emphasis on it.

The main thing is that the season is 6+ months long. Think long term not short term.
Making the selection is <50%. Money management is actually more important.
Keep the selections DOWN. I always think in terms of elimination as opposed to addition.
One gm a day and your winning% will increase and you will have a pleasant financial season.

April 5 is just around the corner. Let's have a good one for all.

UNC
 
#27
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

dont like betting aces at home under 140 if they are playing against a 4th or 5th starter
 
#28
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

First post I've read here and I think its great information. Thanks for the tips. I try to follow things like bounce-back starts etc, but this is alot of really good information.
 
#29
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

Does anyone else bet on a good to great starting pitcher on teams that have bad bullpens for the 1st 5 inn and then bet the other side for the game? If you get on them early and the bet the other side late you can get some pretty good #s. The Cardinals, Mets and Cleveland come to mind.
Where are you doing this, Bookmaker,DSI ?
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#30
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

Good luck this season ladies and gents!

I'm not really sure of the mindset of baseball bettors, but i think that the mindset of baseball fans is this. Baseball fans, for the most part, are intimidated by money and payroll. Unless you are a Yankees fan, you hate big markets and wish there was a salary cap. With that thought process, i think one thing that is mistakenly ingrained in the public's psyche is that the big market teams have a big advantage over the little guys. Its really intimidating to be backing the Royals when they visit Yankee stadium.

I think your mindset needs to be trying to take advantage of the fact that even the worst teams in baseball win about 60 games and the best teams in baseball LOSE 60 games. Its your job to be on board.

The Royals, Padres, Pirates and a few other little guy teams are going to win at least 60 games. Lots of the time, those teams will be plus money when they win. The Royals are not going to be favored too often when they play the Yanks or Bosox, so its your job to figure out when they are going to win.

I absolutely love fading the Yanks or Redsox after they play each other. When those two teams get together, the emotions are high and the adrenaline is flowing. When the series is over, its really hard for those teams to get that same excitement to play their next series. This could also be true when the Cubs play the White Sox this year...that's another heated rivalry that could produce a letdown for those teams after those series is over.

Just be very patient. Each team plays 162 games, so there is well over 1,000 games to sink your teeth into. Plenty of action, no need to rush it.

Rome wasn't built in a day, slow and steady wins the race.
 
#31
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

One could also develop a network of friends in each of the cities and share the local feel about each team (not in any printed media) or one could create a method of selection based upon certain aspects common to all games.
\

I have 14 people so far that I look to, when my system is giving me something I don't agree with and look to the locals to see what is going on with each team. I still don't have the entire league covered, but I'm working on it. Very hard to find people that are not "homers".

Detroit has to have one of the worst bullpens.
They will be a surprise this year. I thought last year was a complete failure but were some money makers for me in the second half.
 

WINBET

EOG Dedicated
#34
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

Does anyone else bet on a good to great starting pitcher on teams that have bad bullpens for the 1st 5 inn and then bet the other side for the game? If you get on them early and the bet the other side late you can get some pretty good #s. The Cardinals, Mets and Cleveland come to mind.
Sounds like a very good strategy but I just wonder if the books adjust their odds accordingly.

As for the initial post which the content is always worth viewing, No 1 is the most important. Anyone who has ever run a Book will tell you that Punters regularly betting long odds are gold dust, when they hit the skids its goodnight Vienna.
No8 is wrong, your not betting against the public, your betting against the Bookmakers vig. Books dont give a fuck about the public compared to trying to be on the right side of Sharps. Considering the majoritys stance on a Game just confuses what could be some good work on your behalf, foprget it.
No10, once again its easy to get sucked into these lazy theories. If your putting in a lot of hard work capping any Sport, these type of theories are a cancer that are thought up by lazy punters and enjoyed by The Books.

Flamingo,
You seem like a person who tries hard to win and hard work is the only avenue to any success in betting. These Forums are full of Idiots who are clueless but enjoy posting one liner get rich quick theories because its easy. Stick to the more solid points you posted and you will win.

Best of Luck in the new Season :cheers




No10
 
#35
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

very informative and insightful post. thanks for sharing... 3 and 8 are particularly useful.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#36
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

thanks for all the compliments guys, hope you're killing em at the windows!
 

DrM

EOG Member
#37
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

This is great advice.

#8 is the key for me. I read so much about a pitcher who is "hot" and allowed only two runs in his last three starts.

This is no secret. THAT IS WHY YOU ARE LAYING 140 ON THE ROAD!! You get no line value whatsoever by playing a pitcher who has had good results recently. The bookmakers do not give away money. It's not that easy.

To win in baseball, you need information that is NOT generally available.

Every baseball handicapper should print out the ten theories and post them on their wall.

Dr M
 

DrM

EOG Member
#38
Re: Baseball handicapping 101. Ten theories to get YOU the cash.

Some Evidence...

Here is a selection from a professional handicapper. It's from 6/21/09 and it proves your point made in rule #8.

Barry Zito was off a terrible start and Kevin Millwood had good results recently. Many people were on Texas as a 135 favorite in San Francisco, but this was absolutely the wrong side on which to be:

Game: Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants Jun 21 2009 4:05PM
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
Grade: Winner (125)
Reason: Kevin Millwood has spectacular numbers recently. He has allowed a total of two runs in his last three starts, lasting at least seven innings each time. This is the reason that the Rangers are a significant road favorite vs a team with virtually the same record. The line value here is with the Giants.
In his last start, Millwood threw 117 pitches vs the Astros in a 6-1 home win. The Rangers are 0-6 as a road favorite with Millwood when he threw more than 106 pitches in his last outing.
The Rangers have lost three straight and nothing motivates Barry Zito more than the role of underdog vs a team that is on a losing streak. The Giants are a perfect 8-0 when Barry Zito starts as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series.
In Zito?s last start, he was bombed for seven runs in three and two-thirds vs the Angels. This is actually a good spot for them, as they Giants are a perfect 6-0 with Zito when he had a WHIP of at least two and lost as a 110+ dog in his last start. The final scores in these games are revealing. They were, respectively: 8-2, 6-3, 4-1, 5-2, 2-0 and 9-2. Zito was great in every start and he was the underdog each time ? by an average of plus-146.
The Giants were indeed fortunate to win yesterday, but they don?t give these wins back. San Francisco is spectacular 7-0 as a dog in the last game of a home series when they are off a win. They are 2-0 in this spot this season. Barry Zito was the starter in the first of these and he went seven innings stuck out five and did not allow a walk or a run.
The last time that the Rangers were a road favorite of more than 130 was August 2006! Coincidentally, Millwood was the starter in that game and Texas lost 7-3 laying 155 to the Rays.
This line is completely blown out of proportion by Millwood?s recent results. The Giants actually have a better than 50% chance to win this one.
MTi?s FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 5 Texas 2

Notes: Barry Zito had a no-hitter through six innings and the Giants won 3-2 and never trailed.
 
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