X-Files
2
"Best Bets: 2021 college football season win totals" (or fades)???
...
Best Bets: 2021 college football season win totals
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
We are just 10 weeks from the start of college football season. Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill has released win totals for all teams. Betting analysts Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, CFB writers Bill Connelly and David Hale, as well as Seth Walder of ESPN Analytics, have picked their favorite ones.
Alabama Crimson Tide under 11.5 (-120)
Connelly: Like Ohio State, Alabama is quite obviously going to be very good in 2021. The Tide will likely be projected No. 1 in SP+ and, well, just about every other projection system. But 11.5 is a really high number.
It's hard to remember sometimes, but Alabama does lose games, even in the regular season. Even during this absurdly dominant run, the Tide have finished the regular season unbeaten four times in the past 12 years. With a new quarterback and three games away from home against projected top-15 teams, odds are solid that they won't get to 12-0 this year either -- SP+ gives them an 85% chance of losing at least once. At -120 odds, the break-even point for this bet is about 55%, but that's still quite a bit of value.
Ohio State Buckeyes under 11 (+100)
Connelly: There's usually going to be some value at each end of the bell curve, where the worst teams' win totals are too low and the best teams' are too high. Betting off that leads to what feels like provocative picks -- Ohio State's going to disappoint! ULM's going to surprise! -- but really, it's just a pure odds thing.
SP+ is likely going to end up ranking Ohio State fourth when the final preseason projections come out. Despite losing Justin Fields, Trey Sermon and company, the Buckeyes clearly remain the gold standard in the Big Ten. But they're going to play about five or six projected top-30 teams, three or four away from home. Even with a top-five rating, SP+ currently gives them only about a 6% chance of going 12-0, 21% of 11-1 and 73% chance of 10-2 or worse. They're obviously going to be very good, but there's a little more uncertainty here than normal, and 11 is a lot of wins.
North Carolina Tar Heels under 10 (-135)
Fulghum: Sam Howell may be one of the more intriguing QBs to watch this season, but Mack Brown has a ton of production to replace around Howell on the offensive side of the ball. Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, Dyami Brown, and Dazz Newsome all moved on to the NFL, and the quartet accounted for 48 total TDs last season.
Oregon Ducks over 9 (-115)
Fallica: Even if the Ducks lose in Columbus, 9-3 is a worst case scenario, and I think 10-2 is very likely. Joe Moorhead will have plenty of weapons at his disposal on the offensive side of the ball. Kayvon Thibodeaux and Noah Sewell will give opposing offenses tons of problems. Maybe the Ducks get tripped up on the road in Seattle or Salt Lake, but this roster is better than any Pac-12 team they will face.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns under 9
Hale: When betting win totals, I focus almost exclusively on luck. Who was lucky the previous year and who was not? Those things tend to even out from one season to the next, offering ample room for profit if the public hasn't distinguished between skill and luck. Perhaps no team had more good luck in 2020 than Louisiana. The Ragin' Cajuns saw a +10 shift in turnover margin from 2019 to 2020, had one of the most beneficial starting field position differentials, and went 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. All these metrics are apt to revert to the mean, making nine wins a tall task in an increasingly competitive Sun Belt.
USC Trojans under 8.5 (+105)
Hale: One metric I always note is the year-to-year swing in points off turnover margin. Big moves in one direction are almost always followed the next year by a huge swing in the opposite direction. That's a huge red flag for USC, which saw a 60-point positive swing in points off turnover margin from 2019 to 2020 (fifth highest in FBS). Add in a 3-1 mark in games in which the Trojans trailed in the fourth quarter and an absolutely wild bit of field-position luck (more than 25% of their offensive drives started in opponent territory, while just 4% of their defensive drives did), and there's ample reason to think the Trojans' luck runs out in 2021.
Iowa Hawkeyes under 8.5 (-110)
Kezirian: Iowa tends to outperform expectations, but an 8-4 season still cashes the ticket. The upcoming schedule presents a lot of challenges. The annual rivalry game with Iowa State is in Ames, and the Hawkeyes have to travel to Wisconsin to play what should be a stout Badgers team. Additionally, home games against Indiana and Penn State and road games at Northwestern, Nebraska and Maryland all offer losable games.
...