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keep the current "price plays" or use the adjusted one?

  • current 11% 23% 36% 0.93

  • adjusted 16% 31% 46% 0.99


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I've started tinkering with and refining a mechanical play...finished in the plus ROI each of the last 3 years...last 12 months just 2 small losing months with a 1.54/1 ROI..wil post the plays here once I mess with it a little more
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
they are interesting just in and of themselves.

do you have any Jacqueline Davis jJacqueline A. Davis jockey stats. how her past few years have gone. when if anything she makes a profit,

she used to be a bit under the radar I think in spots she hits well, years ago she used to run every race on a card. now its like 1 race at a track, a day, maybe 2, then skip days. etc etc. who is using her and when for $$$

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I only have about 60 days of data with me..small sample...
Her ROI is much higher on speed horses as opposed to closers
Her basic last 12 month stat which I have is
11%
0.81 ROI
 
Sunday Aug 19 2018

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Post TRK Pn Horse MLO
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12:00 WO-01 #1 Giant S *1/1
13:40 LRL-04 #2 Scout's *4/5
15:10 LRL-07 #4 Holiday *4/5
15:40 LRL-08 #5 Whyyoua *6/5
16:12 MTH-10 #4 Don't T *1/2
16:25 PID-01 #3 Stevedo *4/5
16:30 GPR-07 #1 Lady Am *1/1
16:55 GPR-08 #1 Chilcot *1/1
18:30 PID-06 #2 Stellar *6/5
20:56 MNR-09 #4 Can't C *6/5
22:01 LA-03 #5 Surfing *1/1
 
missed these. that r10 was an easy race, too bad. chalk won and the second and third options finished underneath making it ideal for my hedging strategy.

Let's see what's left.

btw the p6:

$0.50 Pick-4 (1,2,3,4,6,7/6/1,2,3,4,5,6/4) Paid $17.60 (4OF4)
$0.20 Pick-6 (1,3,4,7,8/3/1,2,3,4,6,7/6/1,2,3,4,5,6/4) Paid $98.00 (6OF6)
$0.50 Pick-5 (3/1,2,3,4,6,7/6/1,2,3,4,5,6/4) Paid $150.45 (5OF5)
$2 Double (3/4) Paid $4.80
$2 Exacta (4-2) Paid $9.80
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
yisman;n7451794 said:
missed these. that r10 was an easy race, too bad. chalk won and the second and third options finished underneath making it ideal for my hedging strategy.

Let's see what's left.

btw the p6:

$0.50 Pick-4 (1,2,3,4,6,7/6/1,2,3,4,5,6/4) Paid $17.60 (4OF4)
$0.20 Pick-6 (1,3,4,7,8/3/1,2,3,4,6,7/6/1,2,3,4,5,6/4) Paid $98.00 (6OF6)
$0.50 Pick-5 (3/1,2,3,4,6,7/6/1,2,3,4,5,6/4) Paid $150.45 (5OF5)
$2 Double (3/4) Paid $4.80
$2 Exacta (4-2) Paid $9.80
$0.20 PK6 4/2,3,5/3/2-6/3,7/4 $6.00 $92.00
yes I had it. LOL my smallest investment in a pick 6 ticket ever and it wins , its not a real pick 6 its one of those stupid jackpot ones. not sure why I even punched in that ticket earlier. I think I thought I Was doing the pick 5 and just kept going..lol
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
yisman;n7451794 said:
missed these. that r10 was an easy race, too bad. chalk won and the second and third options finished underneath making it ideal for my hedging strategy.

Let's see what's left.

btw the p6:

$0.50 Pick-4 (1,2,3,4,6,7/6/1,2,3,4,5,6/4) Paid $17.60 (4OF4)
$0.20 Pick-6 (1,3,4,7,8/3/1,2,3,4,6,7/6/1,2,3,4,5,6/4) Paid $98.00 (6OF6)
$0.50 Pick-5 (3/1,2,3,4,6,7/6/1,2,3,4,5,6/4) Paid $150.45 (5OF5)
$2 Double (3/4) Paid $4.80
$2 Exacta (4-2) Paid $9.80
hmm pm me your show hedge strategy. not 100% sure on that being best case??

sounds interesting
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
damn a tight 3-6-2 there, no walk in the park there at all. she looked to hang for a bit in the lane with a couple coming also making the jumpers nervous... very tight but a winner
 
trytrytry;n7451798 said:
hmm pm me your show hedge strategy. not 100% sure on that being best case??

sounds interesting
it's impossible to be truly optimal due to horse racing having "secret" numbers but I loosely follow standard hedging practice, although more weighted towards the favorites than I should.

Say 200 on the chalk, 10 on the second choice, 5 on the third choice

depends on race and bankroll.
 
Monday Aug 20 2018

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Post TRK Pn Horse MLO
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16:25 PID-01 #1 Big Gam *4/5
19:06 MNR-04 #3 Tia Cel *4/5
 
Tuesday Aug 21 2018

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Post TRK Pn Horse MLO
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13:29 FP-02 #7 St. Lou *3/5
13:33 IND-02 #3 Huckleb 6/5
13:33 IND-02 #5 Shezagu *1/1
14:29 IND-04 #2 Willist *1/1
15:25 FP-06 #3 Isabell *3/5
15:48 FE-02 #6 Reimbur *6/5
15:54 FP-07 #6 Dandy R *4/5
19:06 MNR-04 #6 Ginger *1/2
20:56 MNR-09 #2 Celtic *6/5
 
heres a simple play that just wins... I messed around with it..cant do much more with it

ROI is 1.84/1.00 over year and a half...its been on a roll lately

here it is since late june...lets see what happens



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
05Aug 02EMD 8.0D 3up C02 3 Charmi 3g 10/1 17.0 WON Rosale/Lopez
30Jul 05FL 8.2D 3uF C08 1 Caribb 3f 4/1 4.9 2ND Buckle/Sone J
28Jul 07BTP 8.0D 3uF NW1 5 Outgoi 3f 3/1 5.7 4 Arnold/Sarvis
23Jul 08SAR 9.0W 3up STR 8 Indigo 3g 10/1 9.7 WON Wilkes/Ortiz
22Jul 03SAC 8.0D 3uF STR 4 Splash 3f 4/1 8.1 4 Offiel/Terrer
22Jul 06WO x10.0A 3up NW1 3 Strike 4g 3/1 *1.8 WON Cox Ga/Da Sil
18Jul 03WO 8.5A 3uF NW2 3 H. M. 3f 8/1 4.5 X Silver/Moreno
14Jul 07NP 8.5W 3yr STK 5 Apalac 3c 5/2 *1.7 WON Hall P/Sarmie
13Jul 04NP 8.0W 3up NW1 6 Gem Al 3g* 9*5 *1.2 WON Rycrof/Sarmie
09Jul 07PRX 8.3D 3uF NW1 5 Specia 3f 5/1 9.5 Martin/Haddoc
04Jul 06GP 8.0D 3uF C25 8 Violen 3f 5/1 5.2 WON Pilott/Jarami
30Jun 10CBY 8.0D 3uF C05 4 Una Br 3f 8/1 6.7 X Bravo /Butler
22Jun 04PLN 8.5D 3uF C08 1 Soul o 3f 9/2 4.8 WON McCann/Orozco
 
Wednesday Aug 22 2018
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Post TRK Pn Horse MLO
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12:33 SAR-02 #5 Promise *1/1
13:04 FL-03 #1 Princes *6/5
14:52 FL-07 #2 Passpor *1/1
16:40 SAR-09 #14 You're *6/5
17:45 WO-01 #1 Artilen *1/1
18:55 PID-07 #5 Rare In *6/5
19:06 MNR-04 #5 Shackle *4/5
19:12 RET-02 #6 Shark R *6/5
20:03 ASD-02 #4 Hot Rod *4/5
20:12 MNR-07 #2 Judge C *3/5
20:31 ASD-03 #3 Mr. Daz *3/5
20:59 ASD-04 #2 Pashito *6/5
 
blueline;n7452285 said:
Aug23
PEN race 5 number 5
Wow! Wire-to-wire winner. One of the easiest winners you'll see.

It wound up being a five horse race after the morning line favorite was scratched.


Back to Top

Race 5 [TABLE="cellpadding: 2, cellspacing: 2"]

# Horse Jockey Win Place Show


5

Heart Beat Away

Whitney D G

$4.40

$2.60

$2.20


3

Majestic Mac

Cora D

-

$3.00

$3.20


1

Main Line Philly

Jacqueline A. Davis

-

-

$4.80


4

So Who's Back

Bracho J A

-

-

-


[/TABLE]
Scratched: Courageous Lynne (6)



============

Keep 'em coming!
 
Saturday Aug 25 2018

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Post TRK Pn Horse MLO
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12:15 GP-02 #3 Small F *6/5
12:45 GP-03 #4 Deep Fi *1/1
12:49 PRX-03 #1 Harpoon *1/1
12:49 PRX-03 #1A Dennis' *1/1
13:00 AP-01 #1 Shoeluv *1/1
13:05 TIM-03 #7 Vineyar *3/5
13:05 WO-03 #1 Silent *6/5
13:59 SAR-07 #1 Abel Ta *6/5
14:04 AP-03 #2 Jean El *2/5
14:36 AP-04 #7 Mister *3/5
15:08 AP-05 #3 P H Fac *6/5
16:00 DMR-01 #4 Honeyfr *6/5
16:15 GG-02 #1 Ruled b *6/5
17:05 IND-01 #8 Forerun *1/1
18:01 IND-03 #1 You Are *6/5
19:00 RP-01 #7 How Cre *4/5
19:25 CT-04 #1 King of *1/1
19:25 GPR-02 #1 Master' *1/1
19:59 FP-02 #7 Name Dr *6/5
20:03 ASD-02 #1 Hard Kn *1/1
20:31 ASD-03 #3 Bella N *6/5
20:49 CT-07 #6 Late Ni *1/1
20:59 ASD-04 #1 Cool Br *6/5
23:08 RP-09 #10 Lynah R *1/1
 
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