Circa Survivor

Woodrow Wilson

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
Purse is between $1,390,000 and $2,390,000 depending if the field makes it thru week 17.

The field began with 1,390 entries.

Anyway, 301 entries remained heading into this week.

4 entries failed to submit picks this week.

KIV posted that 3 entries belonged to one contestant.

Some decent equity was flushed down the toilet.

:sleep:
 
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sharky99

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
disturbing to see how many people haven't got picks in this year either in the Circa Million or Circa Survivor
 
Woodrow Wilson

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
ESPN:

Stevens' sportsbook, Circa Sports, is running an NFL survivor contest with a $1.39 million prize and a $1 million bonus for anyone who lasts all 18 weeks. The contest kicked off with 1,390 entries, each costing $1,000. Entering Week 11, only 301 entries remained.

At 3:08 p.m. PT Saturday, eight minutes after the deadline to submit picks, a contestant with three of the remaining entries emailed the sportsbook. He had overslept and missed the deadline. His three entries were finished.

"Pleasant, pleasant guy ... I just feel terrible for him," Stevens told the Vegas Stats & Information Network on Saturday. "My public service announcement, in this week of giving thanks, is simply this: If you are one of the remaining contestants in the Circa survivor [pool], we are talking about way too much money to potentially have a glitch, $1.39 million, possibly $2.39 million. Get your spouse, get your best friend, get your boyfriend, girlfriend, and promise them that if you win, you're going to take them out to dinner in January. And all they have to do is call you and do a welfare check at 2 p.m. Pacific on Saturday for the next five weeks. Just don't miss the deadline. I feel so terrible about the guy that missed this week. They made it through 10 weeks and then missed the deadline."
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
The right call was made. If they let him submit his 3 entries after the deadline they then have to let everyone else do it and then what is the purpose of having one. Tough. Harsh. But the right call
 
J

justintalk

EOG Veteran
I am in the top 300 in circa million time to pull the goalie full court press blitz the qb bring the infield in and the outfield.
 
mrbowling300

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
The rule was stated, to bend it opens up a whole can of worms!

Good luck Woodrow Wilson this week! Next season I'm going to enter!!!!
 
Woodrow Wilson

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
Thanks Bowling. I have a tendency to last far into these types of contests, but always choke down the final stretch. I'm overdue to choke.

Derek Stevens doesn't seem to mind spending money to attract eyeballs to his sportsbooks.

Of course, contest rules should always be 100% followed. However, solely as side show entertainment, Stevens should have asked the player who missed the deadline for his three selections, and offered him some sort of incentive if he was able to reach the finish line with any or all of his 3 entries. The gambling world, Twitter, and these forums would have gobbled up every bit of it. If the player somehow finished the regular season undefeated, he'd receive 10k per entry up to 30k instead of his share or all of $2,390,000.

Think about the teachable moment and cumulative schadenfreude.

Stevens already is offering an extra million to the survivor prize pool, so a separate 10-30k would be low priced advertising. Hell, broke ass ESPN should have reached out with an offer for the guy to have a weekly spot with SVP during BAD BEAT$.

The guy overslept and pissed away 30-40k of contest equity yesterday and a decent shot at a much greater jackpot.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
mrbowling300 said:
I love the format where the the Thursday Thanksgiving games are its own week in the contest.
Click to expand...

This was probably done to help "thin the herd" knowing they would have a lot of entries

About a month ago I was listening to VSIN and they said anyone doing this had better make sure they had some viable teams for T-giving because it was its own "week" - I sense many did but I also sense some are gonna have to roll the dice and hope. I do think the Steelers will be a very popular play
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
Thanksgiving day as its own week is perfect.
Im sure many didnt plan for this and might be limited.

Wonder how many are done because they used all 6 teams.

Also expect people to not get their picks in.

Epic contest idea
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
i predict there will be only 1 winner, and will be revealed before christmas, and will have won on accident.
 
Woodrow Wilson

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
Circa's Thanksgiving idea is creative, but they should add at least a couple double pick weeks next year.

Maybe weeks 5 and 10.

Without at least one upset this weekend there are going to be multiple winners at 18-0 imho. I'll be happy with a piece of something, rather than 100% of nothing, of course. But I think Circa would prefer having one or two million dollar winners.

Sports, heading into last week's games, not a single entry had used Washington, so the Football Team is 100% available. Detroit is available to 98.7% of entries, Dallas 93.7%, and Houston 79.4%.

Even Pitt and Balt remain available for many entries.

Without this Thanksgiving rule, Dallas would have knocked out a lot of entries early as they were handicapped at 9.5 or 10 wins.
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
Woodrow Wilson said:
Circa's Thanksgiving idea is creative, but they should add at least a couple double pick weeks next year.

Maybe weeks 5 and 10.

Without at least one upset this weekend there are going to be multiple winners at 18-0 imho. I'll be happy with a piece of something, rather than 100% of nothing, of course. But I think Circa would prefer having one or two million dollar winners.

Sports, heading into last week's games, not a single entry had used Washington, so the Football Team is 100% available. Detroit is available to 98.7% of entries, Dallas 93.7%, and Houston 79.4%.

Even Pitt and Balt remain available for many entries.

Without this Thanksgiving rule, Dallas would have knocked out a lot of entries early as they were handicapped at 9.5 or 10 wins.
Click to expand...
I like the double pick starting the week after Thanksgiving.

Crazy things happen late in the season so still time for those most selected teams to clean out a bunch of people
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Woodrow Wilson said:
Circa's Thanksgiving idea is creative, but they should add at least a couple double pick weeks next year.

Maybe weeks 5 and 10.

Without at least one upset this weekend there are going to be multiple winners at 18-0 imho. I'll be happy with a piece of something, rather than 100% of nothing, of course. But I think Circa would prefer having one or two million dollar winners.

Sports, heading into last week's games, not a single entry had used Washington, so the Football Team is 100% available. Detroit is available to 98.7% of entries, Dallas 93.7%, and Houston 79.4%.

Even Pitt and Balt remain available for many entries.

Without this Thanksgiving rule, Dallas would have knocked out a lot of entries early as they were handicapped at 9.5 or 10 wins.
Click to expand...
Say you used all six of those teams already, then what for Thursday?
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
FairWarning said:
Say you used all six of those teams already, then what for Thursday?
Click to expand...

I feel very confident in saying.............No one has used the Lions/Girls/WTF/Texans................and still in it

And if so - you are a dumb ass because they emphasized from the beginning entrants better make sure to keep a T-giving day pick option available
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Going into Thursday games (Week 12), team availability as a % of the 209 entries left for each team:

Team Avail
CAR 100.0%
CIN 100.0%
DEN 100.0%
NYG 100.0%
NYJ 100.0%
WSH 100.0%

ATL 99.5%
DET 99.5%
JAX 99.5%
MIN 98.1%
CHI 97.1%
LV 97.1%
DAL 93.3%
SF 91.9%
SEA 91.4%

HOU 75.6%
CLE 68.9%
TEN 67.9%
ARI 62.2%

PHI 48.8%
NO 48.3%
BAL 42.6%
NE 39.7%
TB 34.4%
MIA 26.8%
GB 21.5%
PIT 20.6%
KC 19.6%
LAR 19.6%
IND 15.8%
LAC 11.5%
BUF 8.6%
 
mrbowling300

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
You have the prospect of the Balt Pitt game being ppd ...adds an interesting dynamic to the contest this week!

Ravens now have had five players and four staffers test positive for COVID this week, sources tell ESPN.

Thursday night’s game vs. the Steelers still is on, as scheduled, but one source warned that further positives could mean postponing it.
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Here are the games with the # available (out of 209 entries) with Pinny ML:

Avail Team ML
158 Hou -159
208 Det +143

209 Was +128
196 Dal -142

83 Bal +185
56 Pit -209

My guess is very few will choose either BAL or PIT. I would guess the breakdown will be something like:

DAL 58
HOU 54
DET 49
WAS 44
PIT 3
BAL 1

So if all 3 dogs win SU, 58+54+3 = 115 would be eliminated
 
Woodrow Wilson

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
Thanks Bob. Your input is always appreciated.

I have more than one entry, do you have an opinion regarding my thoughts about using both sides of either Wash/Dal or Hou/Det?

I'm thinking many fewer than 49 will have Detroit.

Bowling I've been thinking about the consequences of Covid postponing the Thanksgiving Balt/Pit game. I'm sure Harbaugh wouldn't mind.
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Woodrow Wilson said:
I have more than one entry, do you have an opinion regarding my thoughts about using both sides of either Wash/Dal or Hou/Det?
Click to expand...

Its really difficult to assess using two picks on opposite sides without evaluating your future projected picks on the remaining schedule and the probabilities involved. What probabilty do you calculate that at least one entry will survive all the way?

Right now, each entry will need a 7 team rolling ML parlay to survive all the way (7 games @ 55% win % is about a 1.5% overall chance). Offhand, I say its too early to sacrifice a pick to guarantee the other one will advance. Too many entries still alive.
 
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