mrbowling300
EOG Dedicated
With my luck, that's what would happen to me, lol. And yes, in all survivor pools, a tie is like a loss.
Circa Survivor
- Thread starter Woodrow Wilson
- Start date
With my luck, that's what would happen to me, lol. And yes, in all survivor pools, a tie is like a loss.
Right. The Double Option has that flaw. A tie results in both entries losing.
Mike Palm gave out the info that only 28 entries were multiple. 23 have 2 entries and 5 have 3 entries, thus 209 - 46 - 15 = 148 have single entries.
Diving a bit deeper, we can see that Week 12a (Thursday) with a "probable" distribution will provide a fairly deep elimination. There will probably be only 90 to 120 survivors.
As Derek Stevens pointed out, Week 12b (Sunday) offers the Giants as around a -250 ML fair value fav plus other high win% options. So a rolling 6 team ML parlay at 55% win%, gives an overall 2.8% chance, and at 65%, a 7.5% chance of total survival. So with say 105 surviving Week 12a, we still would have a good chance of anywhere from 3 to 8 total survivalists. The prize pot would then be split to give between 174K and 463K per entry. To me, playing a Double Option in Week 12a isn't justified unless lots of options are gone in Weeks 13 thru 17.
Diving a bit deeper, we can see that Week 12a (Thursday) with a "probable" distribution will provide a fairly deep elimination. There will probably be only 90 to 120 survivors.
As Derek Stevens pointed out, Week 12b (Sunday) offers the Giants as around a -250 ML fair value fav plus other high win% options. So a rolling 6 team ML parlay at 55% win%, gives an overall 2.8% chance, and at 65%, a 7.5% chance of total survival. So with say 105 surviving Week 12a, we still would have a good chance of anywhere from 3 to 8 total survivalists. The prize pot would then be split to give between 174K and 463K per entry. To me, playing a Double Option in Week 12a isn't justified unless lots of options are gone in Weeks 13 thru 17.
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winkyduck
TYVM Morgan William!!!
It is. And with spreads for the first 2 games being 3, or less, a tie would not be the most unusual things to happen
Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
Bob how would your opinion change if a person had 3 entries and played 2 on their strongest side among available teams and one pick opposite that side?
Edit: Pittsburgh is the only unavailable choice.
Edit: Pittsburgh is the only unavailable choice.
Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
I've certainly considered this happening. My concern is that I don't have Pitt available as an option, and I really don't have a strong opinion for these other games.
Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
im trying to confirm if balt/pitt is no longer an option for week "12a."
does anybody know?
does anybody know?
Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
I'm being told that bal/pit cannot be used for a week "12a" survivor selection.
justintalk
EOG Veteran
So if both games end in a tie its a chop.
railbird
EOG Master
If you take the Ravens you will be a millionaire.
railbird
EOG Master
well multi millionaire since you already are a millionaire.
Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
If I take the Ravens for tomorrow, i'd have feathers and sawdust because they're now playing Sunday it'll be graded a loser.
mrbowling300
EOG Dedicated
I wonder if thats the case, if they would play on?
mrbowling300
EOG Dedicated
Wonder how many submitted plays early and selected Pitt or Balt?
railbird
EOG Master
cowboys looked very good vs vikes, although skins are a much better defense and did beat them 25-3 last time, but cowboys healthier now. you not playing lions probably means you like houston but so hard to back marxist punk loser like watson, id use cowboys for 1 and ravens for 1
Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
I don't think it's a play on, but frankly I haven't read the rules that closely. CB probably knows tho. 
Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
I do remember reading something from Circa that they can grant exceptions with that sort of situation, but nothing is guaranteed.
Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
I stole second a few weeks ago avoiding landmines and again last Sunday avoiding the Vikings. If a tie doesn't occur tomorrow, I'll be sliding into third.
railbird
EOG Master
go with your instincts, because they are God given and God knows best. I wouldnt throw away 1 of my bullets this early tho.
Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
my gut is to not trust any of these 4 teams with losing records.
at least 3 of the worst 5 coaches in the league too.
rivera only getting a pass because of his illness.
at least 3 of the worst 5 coaches in the league too.
rivera only getting a pass because of his illness.
Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
wtf man balt is not an option for anybody tomorrow lol
winkyduck
TYVM Morgan William!!!
Fair point. But NOT choosing any of these games is NOT an option which is why I do think we see a massive amount of carnage Thursday.
209 will start Thursday alive in this contest. It won't shock me at all to see fewer than 100 submitting picks on Sunday
You should check with the Circa to see if the Balt pick is possible. Otherwise, you will have to use a Double Option or use the same pick twice if you have 3 entries.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Dallas had three OL return after the bye, and they looked very good. McLaurin is banged up for Wash, no real WR to step up for him.
Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
lol at line squeezing wash +3.5 -120 but i see your point.
Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
Pick count: 207 ( 2 no shows and 1 defaulted with PIT).
DAL 90
HOU 79
WAS 29
DET 11
PIT 1
mrbowling300
EOG Dedicated
Min of 43 out this week, Pitt, the no shows, and the lower # of each game.
Hope you'll go 2-0 today Woodrow
Hope you'll go 2-0 today Woodrow
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Tough way to lose, placing your pick in early only to have the game moved to a different day.
mrbowling300
EOG Dedicated
Saw this from circa, those with multiple selections.
mrbowling300
EOG Dedicated
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Boy a lions and football team win would make things very interesting
justintalk
EOG Veteran
patricia should have been fired at halftime.
Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
108 remain.
I need to win 5 individual games during weeks 12-16 to win some cash. If I can get there I'll certainly hedge week 17 with a ML dog bet.
Bowling, who is your best guess for the next Detroit head coach.
I need to win 5 individual games during weeks 12-16 to win some cash. If I can get there I'll certainly hedge week 17 with a ML dog bet.
Bowling, who is your best guess for the next Detroit head coach.
I count only 105 tickets remaining. One guy with 2 entries didn't submit an entry and the Steeler pick lost.
Of the 28 multiple entries, I count only 7 that survive with two tickets. The rest either bombed completely or are reduced to 1 ticket going forward.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Gambleongold with 3 Dallas entries, ouch.
Who do you have left, WW?
Who do you have left, WW?
Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
Thanks Bob. I was incorrectly counting Houston as 79 and not 76. I will gladly take that 105
FW this contest will likely be decided by the players who can avoid the landmines from the JAGS, JETS ever winning a game down the stretch. Burrow's injury also helps the likelihood of multiple players being 18-0.
FW this contest will likely be decided by the players who can avoid the landmines from the JAGS, JETS ever winning a game down the stretch. Burrow's injury also helps the likelihood of multiple players being 18-0.