Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

I’ve been playing craps for years - Pass/Come (-1.41% EV), Don’t Pass/Don’t Come (-1.36% EV) with full odds/lay exclusively, and keeping track of overall wins/losses. I would grind playing 1-3 numbers at a time. If I stuck with Pass/Come, I would end up a loser at an amount usually worse than the EV. If I ended up a winner, it’s because I hit a hot shooter. In other words, the table would have to get hot at some point to have any chance of coming out ahead. If I played the Don’t/DC, the wins and losses were much more even, and maybe a little ahead.

I decided to try playing the Don’t/DC on EVERY roll to see what happens. I first tested it at home using real unbiased dice. I played a gazillion rolls and the results were promising. When I switched to the Pass/Come, I kept losing. So my results matched what I was seeing at the casino and the Pass/Don’t Pass correlated with each other.

Now it was time to try this at the casino. I bought in for $1,000 at a $5/5x odds table and was doing well playing the Don’t Pass/Don’t Come on every roll, including myself as the shooter. The table limit increased to $10/5x about halfway through. After playing for 5 hours, I cashed out for $2,600 (up $1,600).

Within those 5 hours, the table did get hot twice. I probably lost $1,000-1,500 during each of those runs, but I had plenty of chips to weather both storms.

I made the same flat bet and the table max on the lay. There was no hedging, no Martingale, and no other bets on the table. I wanted to cover as many numbers as possible, so even if I had 6 numbers covered, I would continue betting the DC. This is where you can get in trouble when the dice get hot, but you don’t know when that will happen. You’re hoping the 7 is rolled soon (and it usually does!) I really like it that the lay bets are always working, so for you to lose, the 7 cannot show up at all, even on the come-out roll.

I’m not trying to buck the math, in fact I want the 7 to come up every 6th roll or so which is in line with its probability. I know I will end up a loser long-term, but this strategy seems to have some legs. If you feel like trying it, post your results below. Include the flat bet, table odds, the duration, and the net win/loss.
 

Gabe

Horse racing expert
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

So you're saying that you are betting dont pass on every point and don't come on all rolls?
 

Bucky

EOG Dedicated
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

I like it. Would you be willing to set a max loss on a shooter? 5 units? It just sucks to be at a table that gets hot and you are the only one getting killed. At some point hedge with place bets?
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

what is it that you actually like about -1.36% ???

thats not something you have to practice you calculate it if you dont believe it. its guess what -1.36%


:+clueless
 

Gabe

Horse racing expert
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

When I was in Reno I saw a nightmare roll of 5/7 rolls with a 7 coming up.
 

brians

EOG Dedicated
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

I went to the dark side exclusively last year. I like being the favorite once I get passed the come out roll. Typical bet was $100 DP, table max on odds is 6x so I would lay 6x on the next roll along with a $100 DC. After the 2nd roll I'd reduce my odds on the DP from 6x to 3x and lay 3x on the DC. Then wait for the 7.

I did this for a couple months, maybe 20 sessions or so and had more winning sessions than losing sessions but the wins were modest - never more than $5k in a session.

Then I adjusted to just 1 DP ($100) and 3x odds, without any DCs. And if a shooter beat me once then I'd lay off until his roll ended. No reason to chase, the 7 will come back eventually. This strategy, although more conservative, did not perform as well. More losing sessions than winning ones, I was a victim of choppy tables. Set point - make point - set point - 7-out ... time and time again. Bad result for this strategy. Frustrating.

I've since been trying to qualify shooters. Haven't figured out anything I'm comfortable with yet, but generally I'll play 1 DP with 3x odds then begin betting through the come after 5 rolls. Recently talked to a guy who plays 1 DP w/ 6x odds, 2 DCs with 6x odds, then if the shooter hits one of his numbers then he'll remove his odds and he'd hop the red for 3 consecutive rolls for $75 a piece.

I love the game, but I'm a recreational player and usually just play socially.
 

svbettor

EOG Veteran
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

Love the DP line. It is like grinding it out on the Poker table. You are with the house but dont get paid like the house. Eeeking out small wins.

---SVbettor
 
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

I like it. Would you be willing to set a max loss on a shooter? 5 units? It just sucks to be at a table that gets hot and you are the only one getting killed. At some point hedge with place bets?

You could set a max loss on a shooter. Actually, it is tough not to, but I stuck to my guns and kept playing the DC because I wanted to get paid on all 6 numbers when the 7 came up (eventually).
 
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

I went to the dark side exclusively last year. I like being the favorite once I get passed the come out roll. Typical bet was $100 DP, table max on odds is 6x so I would lay 6x on the next roll along with a $100 DC. After the 2nd roll I'd reduce my odds on the DP from 6x to 3x and lay 3x on the DC. Then wait for the 7.

I did this for a couple months, maybe 20 sessions or so and had more winning sessions than losing sessions but the wins were modest - never more than $5k in a session.

Then I adjusted to just 1 DP ($100) and 3x odds, without any DCs. And if a shooter beat me once then I'd lay off until his roll ended. No reason to chase, the 7 will come back eventually. This strategy, although more conservative, did not perform as well. More losing sessions than winning ones, I was a victim of choppy tables. Set point - make point - set point - 7-out ... time and time again. Bad result for this strategy. Frustrating.

I've since been trying to qualify shooters. Haven't figured out anything I'm comfortable with yet, but generally I'll play 1 DP with 3x odds then begin betting through the come after 5 rolls. Recently talked to a guy who plays 1 DP w/ 6x odds, 2 DCs with 6x odds, then if the shooter hits one of his numbers then he'll remove his odds and he'd hop the red for 3 consecutive rolls for $75 a piece.

I love the game, but I'm a recreational player and usually just play socially.

Same here. That's why I've started exploring the DC more. I know every throw is random, but there's something to be said about winning ALL DP/DC numbers when a 7 is thrown after the come-out.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

I don't play anymore but when I did I liked DC. I just hate getting burned when I had the odds though.
 

Almost Allright

GO Bucks!!!
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

I grew up in a rural white area. Going to the dark side has been a life long ambition.
 

Bucky

EOG Dedicated
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

what is it that you actually like about -1.36% ???

thats not something you have to practice you calculate it if you dont believe it. its guess what -1.36%


:+clueless

Short of being a dice mechanic there is no mathematical/scientific way to win. The pass/come player searches for the Holy Grail or the table that gets hot. You cannot look for it and you have to be playing at the table when it happens. The casino grinds this player into submission.

The don't pass/don't come player is the ultimate grinder who tries to avoid the hot streaks. Can that be done? Is there a better chance a player can grind than find the Holy Grail table? If it was that easy to read I guess the player could just say AHA and change sides and go into hot table mode???
 

Crazy Pete

EOG Addicted
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

AP's focus on long term +EV.

Gamblers hope for lucky short term results to buck -EV.

Here's some tough love:
Anyone sympathetic to these kinds of dice 'systems' is not an AP.

Same can be said about SJW's who try to twist negative consequences from lack of personal responsibility into 'victimization'.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

Short of being a dice mechanic there is no mathematical/scientific way to win. The pass/come player searches for the Holy Grail or the table that gets hot. You cannot look for it and you have to be playing at the table when it happens. The casino grinds this player into submission.

The don't pass/don't come player is the ultimate grinder who tries to avoid the hot streaks. Can that be done? Is there a better chance a player can grind than find the Holy Grail table? If it was that easy to read I guess the player could just say AHA and change sides and go into hot table mode???




I agree

question : some back room casino games give a 12 a push on the come out... does it help much for a come bettor ?


thanx in advance
 

ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

I agree

question : some back room casino games give a 12 a push on the come out... does it help much for a come bettor ?


thanx in advance

Makes no difference.

Both the 2 and 12 have a 1 in 36 chance of occurring.
 

railbird

EOG Master
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

craps is a terrible play, I bet the don't for the minimum and cheer when folks lose. if I bet the other way you have half dozen scumbag floorman rooting for you, no thanks to that.
 

Patrick McIrish

OCCams raZOR
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

Makes no difference.

Both the 2 and 12 have a 1 in 36 chance of occurring.


Not sure this is correct EJD, how can it not help?

Does it help enough to push into +EV territory? Of course not. But since you lose on 12 if you're on the pass line it has to help.

I'm not an expert on the game but I'd guess the difference in Pass and DP (-1.41%/-1.36%) is you push on 12 from the latter and lose on the former.

It helps if you push on 12 from the pass line on average every 36 rolls or so.....

Doesn't sound like much but if you roll the bones a couple million times it adds up. :)
 

brians

EOG Dedicated
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

Not sure this is correct EJD, how can it not help?

Does it help enough to push into +EV territory? Of course not. But since you lose on 12 if you're on the pass line it has to help.

Right, a push vs a loss on the 12 reduces the house edge slightly.
 

Patrick McIrish

OCCams raZOR
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

When you hear "system" you know it's a losing proposition.

If you engage in -EV pursuits you will go bust eventually.

The variables are how big the roll is, how much you bet, how often you play and so on but the end is a certainty - you go bust.

It's math, it's never wrong.
 

brians

EOG Dedicated
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

Pass/Come (-1.41% EV), Don’t Pass/Don’t Come (-1.36% EV)

The -1.36% improves once you get past the come out roll ... but you have to get past the come out roll first.
 

ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

I agree

question : some back room casino games give a 12 a push on the come out... does it help much for a come bettor ?


thanx in advance

Makes no difference.

Both the 2 and 12 have a 1 in 36 chance of occurring.

Not sure this is correct EJD, how can it not help?

Does it help enough to push into +EV territory? Of course not. But since you lose on 12 if you're on the pass line it has to help.

I'm not an expert on the game but I'd guess the difference in Pass and DP (-1.41%/-1.36%) is you push on 12 from the latter and lose on the former.

It helps if you push on 12 from the pass line on average every 36 rolls or so.....

Doesn't sound like much but if you roll the bones a couple million times it adds up. :)

I misunderstood Mr. Top’s post.

Of course the backroom casino pushing the 12 for come bettors on the initial roll would help.

In fact, it would give the player a 1.36% edge, as it would then oppose exactly the Don’t Come with it’s 1.36% house edge.

If there truly is a backroom casino offering this, I would be very, very wary of the fairness of the dice themselves.
 

Gabe

Horse racing expert
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

When I see 7 hasn’t been rolled for awhile I like to bet against every number on the board 4-5-6-8-9-10 for 25 except 6-8 where I bet 10.
 

Voodoo

EOG Addicted
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

A lot of wishful thinking here. None of the methods discussed will give you an edge and the notion
that the DC disadvantage of 1.36% shifts after the come out is a case of using the wrong numbers
to illustrate that you have the edge once you get past the come-out. That part is true but you must
first get past the initial roll where you are a 2-1 dog if a result occurs. Basically, the house is -200
to win if there's a decision on roll one. THEN the odds shift to your favor in a percentage that reflects
the point established. It all works out to 1.36% overall but that first roll is a killer - which leads me into
an actual spot advantage play.

At venues where the casino actually closes, (cruise ships they do this) they may call out
how many rolls are left before the table shuts down. They may say "five rolls left" or "three rolls left".
At that point, any pass line or come bet you make has an edge because you're the 2-1 fave on the
next roll and the hand may not get completed. If they allow you to bet on the last roll (they often won't)
then you shove on the Come Bet. You'd be a -200 fave if there's a result. There will only be a result 1 in 4
rolls so if you bet 500 on the last roll your EV would be +$41.66 on the roll or an 8.3% edge. Even if you bet
with three rolls left you'd have an edge although the math is more complex in stating the exact advantage.
 

Patrick McIrish

OCCams raZOR
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

How would you interpret "last decision"? I was on the Clearwater boat many years ago and I took that to mean last roll......

Sent a big stack on the come, the dice came up 10. I thought it was no action and they said last decision meant either making the point or crapping out.

I was so pissed!! At least for 2 rolls until the shooter shot another 10. :)

I was on the boat to play poker so I didn't know the protocol but I still think they took a shot at me.....

He said instead of saying "last shooter" and a hand going too long for international waters, they used "last decision" meaning even if he crapped out or had made the point it was done.

I'm not convinced but one of the few times where a mistake paid off for me, LOL.
 

Patrick McIrish

OCCams raZOR
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

Interesting Vodoo, thanks. I didn't know the exact odds but I knew 7/11 was a lot more frequent than 2 or 12, it was a no-brainer to shove a bunch of chips out there.

To me if the shooter shot 5 or 6, whatever, that was still a decision. IDK, this casino had a reputation for shady stuff....

Casino got up big they came in early. Casino losing they'd stay out a lot longer trying to get it back.

I had been on it when they actually gave us checks after the casino went bust, LOL. They did make it good but not a great feeling going home with a check after a nice win.
 

Gabe

Horse racing expert
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

what is the smartest mathematical way to bet craps? How do sharps approach craps?

voodoo? anyone else?
 

cheapseats

EOG Master
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

I once had a dealer at Caesars tell me to limit the #'s to three + point. Never tried it.
 

Voodoo

EOG Addicted
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

There is obviously no common, legit way to get an edge on the game itself. Most players who are
APs that use craps exploit back-end benefits (free chips, comps, even rebates on losses etc). A few
things to do if going that route are - do they rate your odds bets? If the money you risk on odds
is part of your average bet then you have a decent venue. You'll be making bets that you get benefits
on where the house has no edge. There's a big difference between being a $50 line better who takes full
odds and gets his odds rated vs one that doesn't.

Don't listen to dealers advice. There is no mathematical basis for the three #s etc stuff or any of the other
things you'll hear them say. If you know your house edges on all the various bets then you're able to
calculate the cost of what they recommend and you'll see that it's a bunch of nothing. Craps dealers are on
the hustle for tokes when they give advice. Don't listen to other players either. Big money does not mean
the player knows a thing. I was playing next to a big bettor at Paris once and he would bet the DP for $500.
If the number was a 6 or 8 he'd tell them to take it down (he didn't like 6s or 8s). After a couple times shaking
my head while I watched him throw money away like that (he's a 6/5 fave at that point) I nudged him and said
I'd buy his bets off him that he wanted to take down going forward. This worked for a short while but when the
boxman figured out what was happening he sent someone around to pull me aside and warned me not to do that
anymore or I'd be asked to leave. They didn't like me taking that EV out of their pocket and putting it into mine.

Play the low-vig offers, play at a crowded table (slower game), make an impression early with your bet size then
taper down. Ask your average bet size when you leave and if it seems low then say so. Craps players can be
treated well so soak up what you can but don't expect to have an edge at the table because you won't no
matter how you juggle your bets.
 

THE FACTSMAN

EOG Addicted
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

what is the smartest mathematical way to bet craps? How do sharps approach craps?

voodoo? anyone else?

Forget the math in this game. Your only shot to win @ craps is finding the perfect storm.
When betting the pass line bring your balls and a bankroll and hope you get a nice roll or a few
rolls where they are hitting the numbers

look for 10 x odds if your a pass or dont player and take OR lay full odds
place bets no come bets in a 3-4-5 x game

If you like the dont...........its like being on a treadmill that never stops
you will eventually run into a buzz saw if you stay long enough

dont is a hit and run play..........find 3 or 4 miss outs and bolt.
time is always on the casino' side in craps

if you get a dont player starting with $1,000
and a right better starting with $1,000

in 2 hours with choppy dice they both will be broke

I have won and lost sick amounts of money in this game
and still know its timing and luck AND aggressive betting
 

MrTop

EOG Master
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

factsman is spot on.... timing is everything


I like voodoo story about taking the EV away from the house at the table
 

Gabe

Horse racing expert
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

How long do you guys play craps for on average?
 

THE FACTSMAN

EOG Addicted
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

i play hard and fast............if i'm in Vegas i'll do about 3 sessions of 30 minutes each per day
unless the table is lively and dice are passing i my stay a bit longer.

again its timing.............hope your at the right table at the right time.

in craps.............mick jagger was wrong, Time is not on your side..............

comp example

if i play 1 hour betting $5,000 a roll
you play 6 hours playing $500 a roll

your getting better comps then me and a stronger theo.

and if your crazy enough to play those knuckle head bets
like crap check or the field or hard-ways they will triple your rating......SUCKER BETS unless they hit

most casino's dont count odds in the back as your average bet

so if you have $100 pass line bet - point is 6 or 8 u take $500 odds

you credited with a $100 bet...........as once the point is established pass or dont pass
no more house edge laying or taking............both sides get true odds on every point behind the line

hope this helps
 

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

craps is a terrible play, I bet the don't for the minimum and cheer when folks lose. if I bet the other way you have half dozen scumbag floorman rooting for you, no thanks to that.

On the quarter craps table nobody cares about your 1 dollar bet...:btj:
 

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

I have seen firsthand FACTS winning and losing....he is not afraid to fire.....Win or lose he always is a gentleman to the pit bosses and dealers...
 

Blackcloud

EOG Dedicated
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

if you get a dont player starting with $1,000
and a right better starting with $1,000

in 2 hours with choppy dice they both will be broke


That is the brutal part of the game. You can play either side on a choppy table and lose.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
Re: Craps: Playing the dark side is working for me!

When I see 7 hasn’t been rolled for awhile I like to bet against every number on the board 4-5-6-8-9-10 for 25 except 6-8 where I bet 10.
never never ever do that again. avoid all negative expectation wagers always.
 
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