kinosh
2
I’ve been playing craps for years - Pass/Come (-1.41% EV), Don’t Pass/Don’t Come (-1.36% EV) with full odds/lay exclusively, and keeping track of overall wins/losses. I would grind playing 1-3 numbers at a time. If I stuck with Pass/Come, I would end up a loser at an amount usually worse than the EV. If I ended up a winner, it’s because I hit a hot shooter. In other words, the table would have to get hot at some point to have any chance of coming out ahead. If I played the Don’t/DC, the wins and losses were much more even, and maybe a little ahead.
I decided to try playing the Don’t/DC on EVERY roll to see what happens. I first tested it at home using real unbiased dice. I played a gazillion rolls and the results were promising. When I switched to the Pass/Come, I kept losing. So my results matched what I was seeing at the casino and the Pass/Don’t Pass correlated with each other.
Now it was time to try this at the casino. I bought in for $1,000 at a $5/5x odds table and was doing well playing the Don’t Pass/Don’t Come on every roll, including myself as the shooter. The table limit increased to $10/5x about halfway through. After playing for 5 hours, I cashed out for $2,600 (up $1,600).
Within those 5 hours, the table did get hot twice. I probably lost $1,000-1,500 during each of those runs, but I had plenty of chips to weather both storms.
I made the same flat bet and the table max on the lay. There was no hedging, no Martingale, and no other bets on the table. I wanted to cover as many numbers as possible, so even if I had 6 numbers covered, I would continue betting the DC. This is where you can get in trouble when the dice get hot, but you don’t know when that will happen. You’re hoping the 7 is rolled soon (and it usually does!) I really like it that the lay bets are always working, so for you to lose, the 7 cannot show up at all, even on the come-out roll.
I’m not trying to buck the math, in fact I want the 7 to come up every 6th roll or so which is in line with its probability. I know I will end up a loser long-term, but this strategy seems to have some legs. If you feel like trying it, post your results below. Include the flat bet, table odds, the duration, and the net win/loss.
I decided to try playing the Don’t/DC on EVERY roll to see what happens. I first tested it at home using real unbiased dice. I played a gazillion rolls and the results were promising. When I switched to the Pass/Come, I kept losing. So my results matched what I was seeing at the casino and the Pass/Don’t Pass correlated with each other.
Now it was time to try this at the casino. I bought in for $1,000 at a $5/5x odds table and was doing well playing the Don’t Pass/Don’t Come on every roll, including myself as the shooter. The table limit increased to $10/5x about halfway through. After playing for 5 hours, I cashed out for $2,600 (up $1,600).
Within those 5 hours, the table did get hot twice. I probably lost $1,000-1,500 during each of those runs, but I had plenty of chips to weather both storms.
I made the same flat bet and the table max on the lay. There was no hedging, no Martingale, and no other bets on the table. I wanted to cover as many numbers as possible, so even if I had 6 numbers covered, I would continue betting the DC. This is where you can get in trouble when the dice get hot, but you don’t know when that will happen. You’re hoping the 7 is rolled soon (and it usually does!) I really like it that the lay bets are always working, so for you to lose, the 7 cannot show up at all, even on the come-out roll.
I’m not trying to buck the math, in fact I want the 7 to come up every 6th roll or so which is in line with its probability. I know I will end up a loser long-term, but this strategy seems to have some legs. If you feel like trying it, post your results below. Include the flat bet, table odds, the duration, and the net win/loss.