REASON FOR PICK: 4* #306 MIAMI O. Over
A short turn-around week for two teams that lack depth on defense, and two offenses that are coming into their own, means a much looser flow than what is being projected here.
Akron got off to a dismal offensive start this season, failing to reach the end zone through the first 11 quarters. But that came against solid Ohio State, Temple and Cincinnati defenses. And it also came with a blessing. It made clear to Rob Ianello what he likely already suspected – if he is going to begin rebuilding the Zips, he might as well do it by letting some talented younger players begin earning their stripes in the skill positions. It meant SO Clayton Moore, a transfer from Mississippi, taking over at QB from veteran Patrick Nicely, FR Jawon Chisholm stepping into a starting roll at RB, and talented SO Keith Sconiers moving to the head of the line at WR. And while having underclassmen in your key skill position roles brings the usual problems with inexperience, the talent is there – Moore is getting better by the week as the players around him get healthier and gain experience; Chisholm has rushed for 753 yards at 4.9; and Sconiers has 34 catches for 536 yards. Add in WR Marquelo Suel, who has 17 catches the last two games since returning from injury, and there are some genuine weapons. And with Adam Bice and Zac Kasparek having returned up front, the OL will only get better. They will also find some openings against a RedHawk defense that faces this short week while playing for the 8th straight time without a bye, and is losing the battle of attrition in the DL, with Des Williams, Will Diaz and Mwanza Wamulumba all sidelined.
But defense is another matter for Akron. The Zips only have two INT’s all season, and face a difficult matchup against Zac Dysert, who has thrown for 707 yards in leading Miami to 69 points over the last two games. He has an ace of a target in Nick Harwell, who has already caught 50 passes for 778 yards, but Harwell is not an easy guy to double-team, with four other RedHawks catching 16 passes or more. They should be able to spread the Akron defense and move the ball at will in this setting.
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REASON FOR PICK: 4* #310 CENTRAL FLORIDA Over
The oddsmakers have their biggest headaches when there are major contrasts involved in a matchup. Sometimes so do the coaches as well. That is why we get a game that flows much more loosely than what is being projected, and get an easy Over ticket at this price point.
UCF and Tulsa are prime contenders in CUSA, but they go about it entirely different ways – George O’Leary wants to play power football on both sides of the ball, while Bill Blankenship is continuing the Tulsa tradition of spread the field and forcing as fast of a pace as possible. These contrasts have played out to point counts of 69, 67 and 68 when these teams have met over the past five seasons, and now on this short week many of those issues become even strong from a Total standpoint.
When you play an opponent that has a much different style from your own, naturally there are preparation issues in terms of defensive X’s and O’s. But those are exacerbated by the fact that you often lack the personnel to emulate the other team’s style. That is difficult enough when you have a full practice week, but with this quick turnaround the defensive coaches are up against it. Not the offenses, mind you – they just go out and do what they do. But it is tough to quickly get the defensive game plans in place.
The Golden Knights are not as good as their numbers defensively – man-handling weak teams at home has made them look better than their true abilities, and over the past three weeks we saw S.M.U. thrown for 349 and U.A.B. for 347 on the road, each of those teams having their best passing output of the season. Meanwhile a Tulsa defense that is nothing special in the trenches also looks better on paper than in reality – the Golden Hurricane has not played an opponent all season that relies on lining up and coming right at you.
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REASON FOR PICK: 6* #314 COLORADO
Any time that we get Play On vs. Play Against in the same setting it means time to raise the * count, and it particularly works in a game in which the markets miss their read on both sides of the equation, leaving excellent line value.
Southern Cal played terrific football against Notre Dame and Stanford the past two weeks, so it is easy to see that respect that the Trojans are getting in the marketplace. But this is an entirely different setting. Those were “Bowl” games for a team that can not go to one, and now Lane Kiffin finds motivation difficult to come by against an opponent that will not spark his team in any way. We will see the Trojans step up later when they face Oregon and U.C.L.A., but this may be the single most difficult game of the season to get his team ready from a focus standpoint, and that is exacerbated by having to travel off of a short week, following that draining O.T. affair vs. Stanford. And keep in mind that while Southern Cal has some big-time talent, depth is still an issue, which brings the altitude of Boulder into play as part of that short turnaround.
Meanwhile the markets have little reason to expect anything out of Colorado, with no team in the nation suffering more key injuries, contributing to a current slide of six straight ATS defeats. But the radar screens are picking up where the Buffaloes were, not where they are. First note that those injuries came at an awful time, having to play the likes of Stanford, Oregon, Arizona State, Ohio State and Washington in that span, and even Washington State could end up going bowling. But now note that several of those players are returning, including some key cogs, in what is being set up as a showcase game for the program in their first Pac 12 season – it will be a “Black Out” on Friday night at Folsom Field.
The most important returnees here are RB Rodney Stewart, who leads the team in rushing with 473 yards and is second in receiving yards with 435. Stewart has not played since the first half vs. Washington back on October 15. And also back is top WR Paul Richardson, who has 30 catches for 488 yards and five TD’s despite being on the field for less than half of the offensive plays (he last saw action on October 1st). That means a nice compliment of weapons for Tyler Hanson and an offense that had 420 yards without them vs. a good Arizona State defense on Saturday. Meanwhile DB Josh Moten returned from suspension last week, and scored a TD at A.S.U. on a fumble return.
For as bad as things have spiraled out of control in recent weeks, note that when Stewart and Richardson were on the field the Buffaloes went into O.T. here before losing a bitter game to California, and also led Washington State 27-17 with 2:40 remaining in that 31-27 defeat. Look for them to play with a lot of passion, controlling the ball for long stretches against a flat Southern Cal team will have a difficult time ever establishing much of a margin.
A short turn-around week for two teams that lack depth on defense, and two offenses that are coming into their own, means a much looser flow than what is being projected here.
Akron got off to a dismal offensive start this season, failing to reach the end zone through the first 11 quarters. But that came against solid Ohio State, Temple and Cincinnati defenses. And it also came with a blessing. It made clear to Rob Ianello what he likely already suspected – if he is going to begin rebuilding the Zips, he might as well do it by letting some talented younger players begin earning their stripes in the skill positions. It meant SO Clayton Moore, a transfer from Mississippi, taking over at QB from veteran Patrick Nicely, FR Jawon Chisholm stepping into a starting roll at RB, and talented SO Keith Sconiers moving to the head of the line at WR. And while having underclassmen in your key skill position roles brings the usual problems with inexperience, the talent is there – Moore is getting better by the week as the players around him get healthier and gain experience; Chisholm has rushed for 753 yards at 4.9; and Sconiers has 34 catches for 536 yards. Add in WR Marquelo Suel, who has 17 catches the last two games since returning from injury, and there are some genuine weapons. And with Adam Bice and Zac Kasparek having returned up front, the OL will only get better. They will also find some openings against a RedHawk defense that faces this short week while playing for the 8th straight time without a bye, and is losing the battle of attrition in the DL, with Des Williams, Will Diaz and Mwanza Wamulumba all sidelined.
But defense is another matter for Akron. The Zips only have two INT’s all season, and face a difficult matchup against Zac Dysert, who has thrown for 707 yards in leading Miami to 69 points over the last two games. He has an ace of a target in Nick Harwell, who has already caught 50 passes for 778 yards, but Harwell is not an easy guy to double-team, with four other RedHawks catching 16 passes or more. They should be able to spread the Akron defense and move the ball at will in this setting.
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REASON FOR PICK: 4* #310 CENTRAL FLORIDA Over
The oddsmakers have their biggest headaches when there are major contrasts involved in a matchup. Sometimes so do the coaches as well. That is why we get a game that flows much more loosely than what is being projected, and get an easy Over ticket at this price point.
UCF and Tulsa are prime contenders in CUSA, but they go about it entirely different ways – George O’Leary wants to play power football on both sides of the ball, while Bill Blankenship is continuing the Tulsa tradition of spread the field and forcing as fast of a pace as possible. These contrasts have played out to point counts of 69, 67 and 68 when these teams have met over the past five seasons, and now on this short week many of those issues become even strong from a Total standpoint.
When you play an opponent that has a much different style from your own, naturally there are preparation issues in terms of defensive X’s and O’s. But those are exacerbated by the fact that you often lack the personnel to emulate the other team’s style. That is difficult enough when you have a full practice week, but with this quick turnaround the defensive coaches are up against it. Not the offenses, mind you – they just go out and do what they do. But it is tough to quickly get the defensive game plans in place.
The Golden Knights are not as good as their numbers defensively – man-handling weak teams at home has made them look better than their true abilities, and over the past three weeks we saw S.M.U. thrown for 349 and U.A.B. for 347 on the road, each of those teams having their best passing output of the season. Meanwhile a Tulsa defense that is nothing special in the trenches also looks better on paper than in reality – the Golden Hurricane has not played an opponent all season that relies on lining up and coming right at you.
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REASON FOR PICK: 6* #314 COLORADO
Any time that we get Play On vs. Play Against in the same setting it means time to raise the * count, and it particularly works in a game in which the markets miss their read on both sides of the equation, leaving excellent line value.
Southern Cal played terrific football against Notre Dame and Stanford the past two weeks, so it is easy to see that respect that the Trojans are getting in the marketplace. But this is an entirely different setting. Those were “Bowl” games for a team that can not go to one, and now Lane Kiffin finds motivation difficult to come by against an opponent that will not spark his team in any way. We will see the Trojans step up later when they face Oregon and U.C.L.A., but this may be the single most difficult game of the season to get his team ready from a focus standpoint, and that is exacerbated by having to travel off of a short week, following that draining O.T. affair vs. Stanford. And keep in mind that while Southern Cal has some big-time talent, depth is still an issue, which brings the altitude of Boulder into play as part of that short turnaround.
Meanwhile the markets have little reason to expect anything out of Colorado, with no team in the nation suffering more key injuries, contributing to a current slide of six straight ATS defeats. But the radar screens are picking up where the Buffaloes were, not where they are. First note that those injuries came at an awful time, having to play the likes of Stanford, Oregon, Arizona State, Ohio State and Washington in that span, and even Washington State could end up going bowling. But now note that several of those players are returning, including some key cogs, in what is being set up as a showcase game for the program in their first Pac 12 season – it will be a “Black Out” on Friday night at Folsom Field.
The most important returnees here are RB Rodney Stewart, who leads the team in rushing with 473 yards and is second in receiving yards with 435. Stewart has not played since the first half vs. Washington back on October 15. And also back is top WR Paul Richardson, who has 30 catches for 488 yards and five TD’s despite being on the field for less than half of the offensive plays (he last saw action on October 1st). That means a nice compliment of weapons for Tyler Hanson and an offense that had 420 yards without them vs. a good Arizona State defense on Saturday. Meanwhile DB Josh Moten returned from suspension last week, and scored a TD at A.S.U. on a fumble return.
For as bad as things have spiraled out of control in recent weeks, note that when Stewart and Richardson were on the field the Buffaloes went into O.T. here before losing a bitter game to California, and also led Washington State 27-17 with 2:40 remaining in that 31-27 defeat. Look for them to play with a lot of passion, controlling the ball for long stretches against a flat Southern Cal team will have a difficult time ever establishing much of a margin.