REASON FOR PICK: 5* #109 OHIO
We have two teams heading in opposite directions tonight, both physically and in terms of enthusiasm, and weather in Mounta Pleasant that is going to be anything but “pleasant” makes the edges between these teams grow wider. So we are in play.
Frank Solich’s Bobcats are in control of their ride to the M.A.C. Championship game – win out and they are in, despite suffering two bitter conference losses by a combined four points earlier. But they have played through injuries and developed, especially an offense that has exploded for 72 points in the last two games, netting at least 200 yards both running and passing each time. The key there was the return of RB Donte Harden, who missed three games earlier in the season, but is fresher than he ordinarily would be in November because of that. He ran through a tough Temple defense for 184 yards at 9.2 per pop last week, and combines with emerging QB Tyler Tettleton (seven straight games of over 200 passing yards) to being a one-two balance that is difficult for teams at this level to stop. It has been four straight outings of at least 400 yards for this attack, and in three of them the double-200 threshold was topped. Meanwhile the defense is also getting healthier, with DT Carl Jones and CB Omar Leftwich both back in the lineup in that key win over Temple.
There is little going right for the host Chippewas these days. Only stopping a late two-point conversion vs. Akron has prevented a five-game losing streak, and a defense that lacks oomph vs. both the run and the pass has allowed eight straight opponents to top 400 yards. And what happens to bad defenses in November? They get worse – the past two weeks both Akron and Kent State have had their best offensive game of the season (counting lined opponents) vs. this bunch. So why does it get better as the spirits drag? Coach Dan Enos is blunt about it - "I think the physical part concerns me more than the mental part. We're spending less time on the practice field and we don't have a bye week and won't have one. It's been a difficult stretch."
It gets worse tonight. A team that has relied on the passing game for 70 percent of their offensive production not only has to deal with cold and windy conditions, but will also be without WR Coy Wilson, who leads the team with 44 catches. That makes this just a matter of time before the superior and deeper team pulls away, and we can lay a short price because of a home field advantage that means little.
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REASON FOR PICK: 6* #119 OHIO STATE
(Noon Eastern)
We have an absolutely classic “November” setting here in which we not only have two teams heading in opposite directions, but ready to do it at such an accelerated rate that the oddsmakers and markets can not keep up the pace. The very fact that the money this week has dropped this into our laps at -7 now is an indication of that, and it means time to step up.
Ohio State has overcome the early suspensions, and inexperience at QB, to now control the ride to the first Big 10 Championship game – a 3-0 closeout and the Buckeyes have their berth. We believe they get it. Now key cogs like Dan Herron (415 yards at 5.9 per carry) are back, QB Braxton Miller has had a chance to develop (they absolutely win at Nebraska if he does not get injured in the second half, and this line would then be closer to -10), and having had their bye three weeks ago, they are about as fresh physically as a team can be right now, to take advantage of those opportunities.
Contrast that with a Purdue team that is simply gassed. The Boilermakers had their bye back in September, and since then it has been six of seven vs. teams that both went to bowls LY, and should go bowling again. It has taken a toll, especially from a defensive front that has lost Robert Maci and Ryan Isaac over the last month, while DE Ryan Russell is working through an ankle injury. In losing by 67 points to Michigan and Wisconsin the last two weeks they were gashed for an awful 703 yards overland, and in those two defeats they allowed 38 plays of 10 yards or more.
Long-time readers know the drill – when you are being physically beaten down on defense nothing gets better late in the season. A team lacking depth has too many players taking too much contact, and we have seen the snapping point in the way the entire team failed to compete in the second half of those last two defeats. While it is one thing to see the defense get pushed around, the offense managed only one score after intermission in those defeats, a meaningless TD at Michigan with 0:19 remaining. Look for the Buckeyes to not only seize control early, but to pound away with their ground game to keep the margin increasing throughout, leading to an easy cover in this short spread range.
We have two teams heading in opposite directions tonight, both physically and in terms of enthusiasm, and weather in Mounta Pleasant that is going to be anything but “pleasant” makes the edges between these teams grow wider. So we are in play.
Frank Solich’s Bobcats are in control of their ride to the M.A.C. Championship game – win out and they are in, despite suffering two bitter conference losses by a combined four points earlier. But they have played through injuries and developed, especially an offense that has exploded for 72 points in the last two games, netting at least 200 yards both running and passing each time. The key there was the return of RB Donte Harden, who missed three games earlier in the season, but is fresher than he ordinarily would be in November because of that. He ran through a tough Temple defense for 184 yards at 9.2 per pop last week, and combines with emerging QB Tyler Tettleton (seven straight games of over 200 passing yards) to being a one-two balance that is difficult for teams at this level to stop. It has been four straight outings of at least 400 yards for this attack, and in three of them the double-200 threshold was topped. Meanwhile the defense is also getting healthier, with DT Carl Jones and CB Omar Leftwich both back in the lineup in that key win over Temple.
There is little going right for the host Chippewas these days. Only stopping a late two-point conversion vs. Akron has prevented a five-game losing streak, and a defense that lacks oomph vs. both the run and the pass has allowed eight straight opponents to top 400 yards. And what happens to bad defenses in November? They get worse – the past two weeks both Akron and Kent State have had their best offensive game of the season (counting lined opponents) vs. this bunch. So why does it get better as the spirits drag? Coach Dan Enos is blunt about it - "I think the physical part concerns me more than the mental part. We're spending less time on the practice field and we don't have a bye week and won't have one. It's been a difficult stretch."
It gets worse tonight. A team that has relied on the passing game for 70 percent of their offensive production not only has to deal with cold and windy conditions, but will also be without WR Coy Wilson, who leads the team with 44 catches. That makes this just a matter of time before the superior and deeper team pulls away, and we can lay a short price because of a home field advantage that means little.
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REASON FOR PICK: 6* #119 OHIO STATE
(Noon Eastern)
We have an absolutely classic “November” setting here in which we not only have two teams heading in opposite directions, but ready to do it at such an accelerated rate that the oddsmakers and markets can not keep up the pace. The very fact that the money this week has dropped this into our laps at -7 now is an indication of that, and it means time to step up.
Ohio State has overcome the early suspensions, and inexperience at QB, to now control the ride to the first Big 10 Championship game – a 3-0 closeout and the Buckeyes have their berth. We believe they get it. Now key cogs like Dan Herron (415 yards at 5.9 per carry) are back, QB Braxton Miller has had a chance to develop (they absolutely win at Nebraska if he does not get injured in the second half, and this line would then be closer to -10), and having had their bye three weeks ago, they are about as fresh physically as a team can be right now, to take advantage of those opportunities.
Contrast that with a Purdue team that is simply gassed. The Boilermakers had their bye back in September, and since then it has been six of seven vs. teams that both went to bowls LY, and should go bowling again. It has taken a toll, especially from a defensive front that has lost Robert Maci and Ryan Isaac over the last month, while DE Ryan Russell is working through an ankle injury. In losing by 67 points to Michigan and Wisconsin the last two weeks they were gashed for an awful 703 yards overland, and in those two defeats they allowed 38 plays of 10 yards or more.
Long-time readers know the drill – when you are being physically beaten down on defense nothing gets better late in the season. A team lacking depth has too many players taking too much contact, and we have seen the snapping point in the way the entire team failed to compete in the second half of those last two defeats. While it is one thing to see the defense get pushed around, the offense managed only one score after intermission in those defeats, a meaningless TD at Michigan with 0:19 remaining. Look for the Buckeyes to not only seize control early, but to pound away with their ground game to keep the margin increasing throughout, leading to an easy cover in this short spread range.
