REASON FOR PICK: 5* #385 NAVY
Western Kentucky has been awfully popular in the markets this week, with an opener that we found a bit short at -12 now having dropped all the way to -9.5. That makes it easy to pull the trigger here, for while some of the things that Willie Taggart is doing right had the Hilltoppers right in the game vs. Kentucky last week, there are issues galore in this one. Taggart is doing something that will pay off in the long run, playing most of his recruits in trying to build the program, instead of relying on holdovers. There are 25 FR or SO’s of the 44 on the two-deep charts, which is almost unheard-of. And against a vanilla Kentucky offense with little quick strike ability in the post-Derrick Locke/Randall Cobb era, that young energy was enough to make it a game. Those matchups change this week.
Now the Hilltoppers are not facing a simple attack, but rather one of the most sophisticated option packages in the nation. Even if all of those young defenders were going to get a long study in option football this was going to be a difficult matchup, but Taggart is taking a different approach on that front – instead of putting the full practice time into game-planning this week, he is instead focusing more on developing their schemes for the rest of the season, since they will not see anything like this in Sun belt play. His take - ”We’re going to approach them like any other team. … We’re not going to make a big deal because it’s an option team. Sometimes, if you get caught up with the option, you psyche yourself out.” And sometimes, when you have a young defense, you get surgically taken apart, especially when your own offense lacks the punch to give that defense many breathers.
That is what Navy can do. With explosive QB Kriss Proctor leading the way the Midshipmen are loaded offensively, with FB Alexander Teach and SB Gee Greene providing inside/outside threats, and a terrific OL to open the holes – eight of the top 10 are back from LY, a rarity for this program, and the two-deep features seven SR’s and three JR’s. They are part of a roster that has 14 SR starters, and eight more on the two-deep, and this veteran cast brings a special focus this season – the class of 2012 has 28 career wins, and the Academy record of 36 is within reach. That matters to this group, which spoke about it often in pre-season camp. Their maturity shows in nine pure road wins already in their careers, plus a near-miss at Ohio State. And in terms of savvy and discipline, check out that 40-17 rout of a good Delaware team (#5 in the FCS pre-season ratings) last week – 391 rushing yards, not a single penalty, and the only TO was a 3rd-and-long INT that they did not mind because it was comparable to a punt. Meanwhile the defense had the Blue Hens shackled on 10 points and 285 yards until the reserves allowed a 78-yard drive on 12 plays on the final possession.
Look for the major edges in experience and precision that Navy brings to break this game wide open, much like the Midshipmen did as road favorites vs. “once a year” opponents at Louisiana Tech and East Carolina LY, games that they won by a combined 55 points.
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REASON FOR PICK: 4* #342 PENN STATE
When the Line is this high, and the Total this low, the oddsmakers are calling for the favorite to have a major degree of dominance. Alabama has no such advantage here, and the points are extremely generous in a game in which the Crimson Tide are hard-pressed to come away with the outright win.
Alabama lost outright twice as road favorites LY, and was point blank for another at Arkansas, a win but non-cover. Those defeats came with savvy veteran Greg McElroy at QB. Now it is the untested tandem of SO A. J. McCarron and FR Phillip Sims getting their baptism under fire, and the markets are putting the offensive cart of the Crimson Tide far ahead of the horse(s). We can excuse them for that – the scoreboard looked just fine in that opening 48-7 destruction of Kent State. But take a closer look. Both McCarron and Sims threw a pair of INT’s, which is absolutely inexcusable at home against a bad team when you already have a 21-0 lead in the first quarter. It meant that against a weak sister, with absolutely no game pressure at all, each QB made some bad decisions. And also lost amidst that seemingly definitive scoreboard result was that Trent Richardson was only able to managed 37 yards on 13 carries, which is what can happen when the defense does not fear the passing game.
Now fast forward to this week. It is a road game in front of a hostile crowd for those QB’s, against a veteran and savvy defense that brings the experience for Tom Bradley to get deep into his playbook. The Nittany Lions will start seven SR’s on that side of the ball, six of them three-year lettermen, and that includes all four in the secondary. With veteran DT’s Devon Still (6-5/310) and Jordan Hill (6-1/297) bringing the size to take away Richardson bulling between the tackles, State does not face a bad matchup anywhere when Alabama has the ball. That makes it a tough task for the Crimson Tide to ever get much breathing room, and while their own defense is truly special, Nittany Lion QB’s Rob Olden and Matt McGloin had their trial under fire LY, and are surrounded by playmakers Silas Redd at RB, and WR’s Derek Moye and Justin Brown. They will be right in the hunt to win the whole game here to the final possession.
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REASON FOR PICK: 4* #136 FLORIDA
Tennessee looks “pretty” to the markets right now. There is a group-think out there that the Vols made major strides late under Derek Dooley LY, and are picking up right where they left off. As such, we are seeing a major shift in the evaluation of the gap between these programs. When these two met in Knoxville LY, the game closed Florida -13.5, which would have meant about -17 on a neutral field. That line was a proper evaluation, in a 31-17 Gator win that saw Tennesee manage only 11 first downs. Now they are trying to tell us that it would be around -5.5 on a neutral field this week, given what The Swamp is usually considered to be worth. Have the Vols really closed that much of the gap? No.
First let’s note the Tennessee “roll”. The Vols have not played a game outside of the state since a 14-point loss at South Carolina last October. They had short November trips to handle weak-sister Memphis, and what was a badly depleted Vanderbilt team on Week #11. In each of those games there were more Tennessee fans in the stands than there were for the opposition. And the bowl game vs. North Carolina was also played in Nashville. That late turnaround was as much a case of facing weak competition in favorable settings as the team getting better.
What is the Tennessee reality? One of the youngest rosters in the nation, and one woefully short on depth. On offense the Vols will start seven SO’s, with nine of the 11 reserves FR or SO’s. Of the 10 in the OL, nine are underclassmen, which means one player, LT Dallas Thomas, who was ever even on a roster for a game in Gainesville. As for the defense, there are six FR or SO’s starting, and seven more under-classmen on the two deep. Add it all up and 31 of the 44 on the two-deep are underclassmen, which means virtually no experience at all for this particular hostile environment. And while QB Tyler Bray has been putting up some big numbers, he has never had a start outside of the state.
Florida brings ability across the board – offense, defense, special teams. And the Gators are also a difficult team to scout because of so many options on offense, including wildcat packages in play last week, and also a “jumbo” backfield of 242-pound fullback Hunter Joyce and 22-pound Trey Burton at RB (they are using Burton all over the place). This is a lot to throw at a young Tennessee defense, and we see this as just a matter of time before the Vols are exposed as being the fragile team that they really are, making a line in single digits a major bargain.
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Note to Winky Duck: This is a tribute to Dave's writing craftsmanship, not his handicapping acumen. So for that reason, and I think Dave would appreciate it, I'm just posting his losers.
Western Kentucky has been awfully popular in the markets this week, with an opener that we found a bit short at -12 now having dropped all the way to -9.5. That makes it easy to pull the trigger here, for while some of the things that Willie Taggart is doing right had the Hilltoppers right in the game vs. Kentucky last week, there are issues galore in this one. Taggart is doing something that will pay off in the long run, playing most of his recruits in trying to build the program, instead of relying on holdovers. There are 25 FR or SO’s of the 44 on the two-deep charts, which is almost unheard-of. And against a vanilla Kentucky offense with little quick strike ability in the post-Derrick Locke/Randall Cobb era, that young energy was enough to make it a game. Those matchups change this week.
Now the Hilltoppers are not facing a simple attack, but rather one of the most sophisticated option packages in the nation. Even if all of those young defenders were going to get a long study in option football this was going to be a difficult matchup, but Taggart is taking a different approach on that front – instead of putting the full practice time into game-planning this week, he is instead focusing more on developing their schemes for the rest of the season, since they will not see anything like this in Sun belt play. His take - ”We’re going to approach them like any other team. … We’re not going to make a big deal because it’s an option team. Sometimes, if you get caught up with the option, you psyche yourself out.” And sometimes, when you have a young defense, you get surgically taken apart, especially when your own offense lacks the punch to give that defense many breathers.
That is what Navy can do. With explosive QB Kriss Proctor leading the way the Midshipmen are loaded offensively, with FB Alexander Teach and SB Gee Greene providing inside/outside threats, and a terrific OL to open the holes – eight of the top 10 are back from LY, a rarity for this program, and the two-deep features seven SR’s and three JR’s. They are part of a roster that has 14 SR starters, and eight more on the two-deep, and this veteran cast brings a special focus this season – the class of 2012 has 28 career wins, and the Academy record of 36 is within reach. That matters to this group, which spoke about it often in pre-season camp. Their maturity shows in nine pure road wins already in their careers, plus a near-miss at Ohio State. And in terms of savvy and discipline, check out that 40-17 rout of a good Delaware team (#5 in the FCS pre-season ratings) last week – 391 rushing yards, not a single penalty, and the only TO was a 3rd-and-long INT that they did not mind because it was comparable to a punt. Meanwhile the defense had the Blue Hens shackled on 10 points and 285 yards until the reserves allowed a 78-yard drive on 12 plays on the final possession.
Look for the major edges in experience and precision that Navy brings to break this game wide open, much like the Midshipmen did as road favorites vs. “once a year” opponents at Louisiana Tech and East Carolina LY, games that they won by a combined 55 points.
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REASON FOR PICK: 4* #342 PENN STATE
When the Line is this high, and the Total this low, the oddsmakers are calling for the favorite to have a major degree of dominance. Alabama has no such advantage here, and the points are extremely generous in a game in which the Crimson Tide are hard-pressed to come away with the outright win.
Alabama lost outright twice as road favorites LY, and was point blank for another at Arkansas, a win but non-cover. Those defeats came with savvy veteran Greg McElroy at QB. Now it is the untested tandem of SO A. J. McCarron and FR Phillip Sims getting their baptism under fire, and the markets are putting the offensive cart of the Crimson Tide far ahead of the horse(s). We can excuse them for that – the scoreboard looked just fine in that opening 48-7 destruction of Kent State. But take a closer look. Both McCarron and Sims threw a pair of INT’s, which is absolutely inexcusable at home against a bad team when you already have a 21-0 lead in the first quarter. It meant that against a weak sister, with absolutely no game pressure at all, each QB made some bad decisions. And also lost amidst that seemingly definitive scoreboard result was that Trent Richardson was only able to managed 37 yards on 13 carries, which is what can happen when the defense does not fear the passing game.
Now fast forward to this week. It is a road game in front of a hostile crowd for those QB’s, against a veteran and savvy defense that brings the experience for Tom Bradley to get deep into his playbook. The Nittany Lions will start seven SR’s on that side of the ball, six of them three-year lettermen, and that includes all four in the secondary. With veteran DT’s Devon Still (6-5/310) and Jordan Hill (6-1/297) bringing the size to take away Richardson bulling between the tackles, State does not face a bad matchup anywhere when Alabama has the ball. That makes it a tough task for the Crimson Tide to ever get much breathing room, and while their own defense is truly special, Nittany Lion QB’s Rob Olden and Matt McGloin had their trial under fire LY, and are surrounded by playmakers Silas Redd at RB, and WR’s Derek Moye and Justin Brown. They will be right in the hunt to win the whole game here to the final possession.
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REASON FOR PICK: 4* #136 FLORIDA
Tennessee looks “pretty” to the markets right now. There is a group-think out there that the Vols made major strides late under Derek Dooley LY, and are picking up right where they left off. As such, we are seeing a major shift in the evaluation of the gap between these programs. When these two met in Knoxville LY, the game closed Florida -13.5, which would have meant about -17 on a neutral field. That line was a proper evaluation, in a 31-17 Gator win that saw Tennesee manage only 11 first downs. Now they are trying to tell us that it would be around -5.5 on a neutral field this week, given what The Swamp is usually considered to be worth. Have the Vols really closed that much of the gap? No.
First let’s note the Tennessee “roll”. The Vols have not played a game outside of the state since a 14-point loss at South Carolina last October. They had short November trips to handle weak-sister Memphis, and what was a badly depleted Vanderbilt team on Week #11. In each of those games there were more Tennessee fans in the stands than there were for the opposition. And the bowl game vs. North Carolina was also played in Nashville. That late turnaround was as much a case of facing weak competition in favorable settings as the team getting better.
What is the Tennessee reality? One of the youngest rosters in the nation, and one woefully short on depth. On offense the Vols will start seven SO’s, with nine of the 11 reserves FR or SO’s. Of the 10 in the OL, nine are underclassmen, which means one player, LT Dallas Thomas, who was ever even on a roster for a game in Gainesville. As for the defense, there are six FR or SO’s starting, and seven more under-classmen on the two deep. Add it all up and 31 of the 44 on the two-deep are underclassmen, which means virtually no experience at all for this particular hostile environment. And while QB Tyler Bray has been putting up some big numbers, he has never had a start outside of the state.
Florida brings ability across the board – offense, defense, special teams. And the Gators are also a difficult team to scout because of so many options on offense, including wildcat packages in play last week, and also a “jumbo” backfield of 242-pound fullback Hunter Joyce and 22-pound Trey Burton at RB (they are using Burton all over the place). This is a lot to throw at a young Tennessee defense, and we see this as just a matter of time before the Vols are exposed as being the fragile team that they really are, making a line in single digits a major bargain.
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Note to Winky Duck: This is a tribute to Dave's writing craftsmanship, not his handicapping acumen. So for that reason, and I think Dave would appreciate it, I'm just posting his losers.
