REASON FOR PICK: 4* #206 TEXAS TECH over S.M.U.
If a teams nickname is Mustang why not use appropriate phrasing to set this one up – the markets have the cart far in front of the horse concerning where June Jones and the S.M.U. program are. Yes, the improvement from 2008 to 2009 was one of the biggest in recent memory, with back-to-back 1-11 campaigns turning into a minor bowl season. But while Jones has brought some better talent in, it does not mean that there is necessarily immediate momentum in play – when you lose the likes of Emmanuel Sanders (98 catches, seven for TD’s) and Shawnbrey McNeal (ran for 1,188 and 12 TD’s, while also catching 31 passes for two more scores), there are big holes to fill, and with only four likely SR starters, there is not a whole lot of experience to have to step up in this kind of environment. Given how much this line had been adjusted, the Mustangs could play very well, and still not get the money.
It is important to note that a big part of the S.M.U. turnaround was how weak Conference USA was LY. In the only two significant road challenges the Mustangs lost at T.C.U. by 25 and Houston by 23. That was in line with the first Jones campaign, when the only tough road games were losses of 36 vs. Texas Tech on this field, and by 27 at Navy. So all of a sudden this program is at a level to be getting slightly less than two full TD’s vs. this class? Not in our book. The line in Lubbock 24 months ago closed at 36.5, and in no way has there been a three-touchdown swing between the programs in that short period of time.
Our key is that it is not just the markets misreading S.M.U., but also Texas Tech as well. The first game for Tommy Tuberville and the rest of that new coaching staff brings a sharp focus to quickly let the fans know that a new era is in place, and with only a trip to New Mexico on deck, there is no looking ahead. That gives us a chance to back an under-rated team that will keep the best of the Mike Leach systems in place, while also adding better game management and defense. The offense will seamlessly pick up where it left off, with Taylor Potts and Steven Sheffield having an excellent rhythm with nine different Red Raiders that caught at least 14 passes LY returning, and look for Baron Batch to be even more effective running the ball. It is a terrific bonus in this pointspread range to have the kind of depth at QB, WR and RB that means no letting up in the second half, which particularly matters on a hot afternoon in Lubbock against an opponent that does not bring much experience or depth on defense.
In terms of matching up against the Jones run-and-shoot playbook, is there anything he can show the Tech defense that they have not seen in practice every day of their careers? We like new Red Radier DC James Willis, who was a Tuberville assistant in the past, and worked under Nick Saban at Alabama LY, and with the special focus this particular game brings, a Mustang offense having to replace such major contributors faces a difficult time keeping the pace, especially with young Kyle Padron not having much experience at all vs. this class of opponent on the road.
If a teams nickname is Mustang why not use appropriate phrasing to set this one up – the markets have the cart far in front of the horse concerning where June Jones and the S.M.U. program are. Yes, the improvement from 2008 to 2009 was one of the biggest in recent memory, with back-to-back 1-11 campaigns turning into a minor bowl season. But while Jones has brought some better talent in, it does not mean that there is necessarily immediate momentum in play – when you lose the likes of Emmanuel Sanders (98 catches, seven for TD’s) and Shawnbrey McNeal (ran for 1,188 and 12 TD’s, while also catching 31 passes for two more scores), there are big holes to fill, and with only four likely SR starters, there is not a whole lot of experience to have to step up in this kind of environment. Given how much this line had been adjusted, the Mustangs could play very well, and still not get the money.
It is important to note that a big part of the S.M.U. turnaround was how weak Conference USA was LY. In the only two significant road challenges the Mustangs lost at T.C.U. by 25 and Houston by 23. That was in line with the first Jones campaign, when the only tough road games were losses of 36 vs. Texas Tech on this field, and by 27 at Navy. So all of a sudden this program is at a level to be getting slightly less than two full TD’s vs. this class? Not in our book. The line in Lubbock 24 months ago closed at 36.5, and in no way has there been a three-touchdown swing between the programs in that short period of time.
Our key is that it is not just the markets misreading S.M.U., but also Texas Tech as well. The first game for Tommy Tuberville and the rest of that new coaching staff brings a sharp focus to quickly let the fans know that a new era is in place, and with only a trip to New Mexico on deck, there is no looking ahead. That gives us a chance to back an under-rated team that will keep the best of the Mike Leach systems in place, while also adding better game management and defense. The offense will seamlessly pick up where it left off, with Taylor Potts and Steven Sheffield having an excellent rhythm with nine different Red Raiders that caught at least 14 passes LY returning, and look for Baron Batch to be even more effective running the ball. It is a terrific bonus in this pointspread range to have the kind of depth at QB, WR and RB that means no letting up in the second half, which particularly matters on a hot afternoon in Lubbock against an opponent that does not bring much experience or depth on defense.
In terms of matching up against the Jones run-and-shoot playbook, is there anything he can show the Tech defense that they have not seen in practice every day of their careers? We like new Red Radier DC James Willis, who was a Tuberville assistant in the past, and worked under Nick Saban at Alabama LY, and with the special focus this particular game brings, a Mustang offense having to replace such major contributors faces a difficult time keeping the pace, especially with young Kyle Padron not having much experience at all vs. this class of opponent on the road.