Dave Malinsky Tribute 8/12

jfhst18

EOG Veteran
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #165 NAVY
(3:30 Eastern)

We will go a little shorter on details on this game-day ticket, but the markets have made us an offer we can’t refuse here, with as high as +23 now showing. That means a chance to once again play the disciplined Midshipmen in a game in which they will play hard and smart, while also reducing possessions, making this pointspread a mountain.

Rarely do we ever see a spread this high with a series history like this one brings – Navy has won three of the last four meetings, including a dominating 35-17 rout in the first head-to-head vs. Brian Kelly LY, and the only loss was a narrow 27-21 defeat. Yes, Navy will miss QB Kriss Proctor, but replacement Trey Miller has a lot of potential, having not only been an excellent spread QB in high school, but also leading this team to the state championship as a point guard on the hardwoods. And Miller’s first start is made much easier by a depleted Notre Dame DL, with Kapron Lewis-Moore lost for the season, and Ehtan Johnson hobbled by a sprained ankle. That could force FR Stephon Truitt and Aaron Lynch into the starting lineup, naturally with neither of them having any game experience against this kind of attack. We saw vs. Southern Cal last week how easily that DL was pushed around, and you do not dominate an opponent by this kind of spread when you can not stop them from running the ball and working clock.

Notre Dame will find plenty of points here against a struggling Navy defense. But the Fighting Irish will also have their offense sitting and watching for long stretches, as the Midshipmen shorten the game with time-consuming drives.


REASON FOR PICK: 6* #119 WAKE FOREST
(3:30 Eastern)

There is almost no home field advantage to be found when the four North Carolina-based A.C.C. schools play each other – these are short game-day trips to play in front of unimposing “wine and cheese” crowds, and there are plenty of tickets available for fans of the visiting teams. As such, it should come as no surprise to find that dating back to 1998, road underdogs are 25-11 ATS in these games. And as such, it should come as no surprise that we step up with an underdog that we believe is every bit as good as the favorite, and take advantage of the generous cushion in a game we believe they will win outright.

That injury-riddled 3-9 campaign that the Demon Deacons suffered through is now a distant memory. The upside of all of those 2010 problems was that a lot of young players got playing time ahead of schedule, which has paid off in a major way in a 4-1 opening to A.C.C. play. And if QB Tanner Price had not been injured late in the game at Syracuse, it would likely have been a 6-1 overall run. This is a team that is only going to get better, especially as RB Josh Harris returns to health. It means a chance to put Grobe’s full playbook into action, and sets up what we believe is a coaching mismatch in this setting.

Because of luck of the scheduling draw, these teams have not played since 2007, a 37-10 Wake Forest home rout. It means that almost no one on the Carolina staff has any experience against that Grobe playbook, and that includes interim HC Everett Withers. Withers faces a difficult challenge down the stretch, with the Tar Heels having lost their last three A.C.C. games, including that sloppy affair at Clemson in which a combination of six TO’s and bad defense saw 59 points hit the scoreboard. Now the confidence of the team is at a low ebb, and it is also not easy for a coaching staff to build up enthusiasm when they know they are not likely to be around next season. But now it gets even worse. They are badly going to miss the leadership of SR SS Matt Merletti, who is lost for the season, and his absence forces converted CB Tre Boston in to a starting spot. That is not good news for a secondary that is allowing 263 passing yards per play in A.C.C. action, and a league-worst 16 TD passes.

Wake Forest can attack that struggling defense with a passing attack averaging 282 yards per game, and the Deacons are doing a terrific job of taking care of the football – only five TO’s in 488 snaps. Look for them to control the tempo of this flow and win outright, with the points being offered likely to not be needed.
 
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