Double Whammy

mr merlin

EOG Master
Re: Double Whammy

Latest Risk to Alaska Gas Pipeline: More Gas
by Ben Casselman
|
The Wall Street Journal
|
Monday, February 01, 2010


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<!-- END: Toolbar --> (THE WALL STREET JOURNAL), Feb. 1, 2010
The discovery of huge new natural-gas fields across the contiguous U.S. is threatening Alaska's plans for a pipeline to export gas to the lower 48 states.
Two rival consortiums, each backed by major energy companies, are competing to build the pipeline, designed to carry gas from Alaska's North Slope to continental markets.
But even as the project is poised to get off the ground after decades of discussion, its viability is being called into question as energy companies have found huge new supplies of natural gas locked in dense rocks known as shale in places such as Texas, Louisiana and Pennsylvania.
Those supplies are glutting the market and driving down prices, leading many experts to question whether a pipeline from Alaska is needed or could turn a profit for its backers.
Still, on Friday, one of the two contenders, backed by energy giant Exxon Mobil Corp. and pipeline company TransCanada, formally asked federal regulators for permission to begin accepting bids from gas producers for space on the pipeline, which would carry as much as 4.5 billion cubic feet of gas a day.
"This filing is an important milestone for the project and Alaska," said Tony Palmer, TransCanada's vice president in charge of the project. Mr. Palmer said he believed there is "no lack of demand" for the gas in the contiguous U.S.
The rival project, a joint venture of oil and gas producers BP PLC and ConocoPhillips, plans this spring to announce details of its own plans and begin its own bidding process. The project would stretch as much as 2,000 miles from Alaska and would cost an estimated $30 billion.
Mr. Palmer said TransCanada is considering two versions of the project, one of which would pipe gas through Canada and cost up to $41 billion, and another that would pipe the gas a shorter distance to Alaska's southern coast, where it could be transported by ship. That option would cost up to $26 billion. Either would be complete in 2020.
Supporters argue the pipeline, first proposed in the 1970s, would help stabilize U.S. natural-gas prices, reduce dependence on foreign sources of energy and provide revenue and jobs for Alaska.
Former Gov. Sarah Palin, who in 2008 signed a bill providing state support for the project, touted the pipeline during her vice presidential campaign as a potential solution to the nation's energy needs.
But that was before the success of shale drilling was widely recognized. The industry and many outside experts now believe the U.S. has a century's supply of gas.
"I just don't think that people appreciate even still the magnitude of gas volumes that are possible in the lower 48," said Porter Bennett, CEO of Bentek Energy, a consulting firm.
The bidding process, in which gas producers can make offers to secure space on the pipeline, could help determine whether there is enough demand for the pipeline to move forward. Backers of both projects are playing down expectations. They say they are worried that producers won't make the firm offers necessary to secure financing for the project.
"We are concerned that the bids may be heavily conditioned to address risks that are outside of our control," said David MacDowell, a spokesman for the Conoco-BP project.
The surge in lower-48 production isn't the only factor calling the project into question. Producers also are concerned about cost overruns, possible increases in Alaska's energy tax and other variables.
Most of those challenges have been known for years. The impact of shale drilling, however, became clear only recently. It has been so rapid that a planned natural-gas import terminal in British Columbia last year announced plans to export gas to Asia instead.
Not everyone thinks the U.S. gas glut has put the project in jeopardy. Alaska's vast gas resources are relatively cheap to produce. Ed Kelly, a gas analyst for the energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, said the U.S. gas market could shift significantly in the time needed to build the pipeline. "It's not competing with shale gas now. It's competing with shale gas 10 to 15 years from now," he said.
The uncertainty is making many Alaskans nervous. The state depends on revenue from the oil industry to fund nearly 90% of its budget, but oil production has been declining steadily for 20 years as giant fields such as Prudhoe Bay begin to dry up. State officials hope natural gas could help fill that void, but only if a pipeline gives producers a way to get that gas to market.
But Kurt Gibson, deputy director of the Alaska Division of Oil and Gas, said he is still confident the project will happen. "It's an important component to our state's economic future."
Others are less certain. State Rep. Craig Johnson, a Republican who co-chairs the House of Representatives' Resources Committee, said repeated delays had put the whole project in jeopardy.
"I think we've probably cost ourselves a few years, which allowed the shale plays to come in," Rep. Johnson said. "We should've built this pipeline four years ago."
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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mr merlin

EOG Master
Re: Double Whammy

Aramco Chief: Plentiful Supply Trumps 'Peak Oil'
by Andrew Critchlow
|
Dow Jones Newswires
|
Thursday, January 28, 2010



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Saudi Aramco CEO Khalid Al Falih​




DAVOS, Switzerland (Zawya Dow Jones), Jan. 28, 2010
The chief of Saudi Arabian Oil Co. told delegates at the World Economic Forum Thursday that global dependence on oil will continue and that fears over future supplies are overstated.
"There is too much rhetoric in the public domain about moving away from oil," said Khalid Al Falih, who heads the world's largest oil company in terms of production.
Al Falih said that Aramco is "comfortable" maintaining a cushion of 4 million barrels a day of spare capacity for the foreseeable future even if global demand cranks up.
"This issue of peak oil has been pushed behind," he said. "There are plenty of resources out there."
Saudi Arabia, the Middle East's biggest economy, holds the world's largest proven oil reserves at about 264 billion barrels. The kingdom presently pumps about 8 million barrels a day of crude.
Aramco has invested heavily in recent years in upgrading the country's crude production capacity to about 12 million barrels a day. In June, Aramco started pumping from the 1.2 million-barrel-a-day Khurais field, the largest-ever single addition to global oil supplies.
The company is presently pushing ahead with plans to develop the offshore Manifa field, which will add another 900,000 barrels a day of heavy crude from 2013.
Saudi Arabia last year delayed the completion of Manifa by two years as it looked to cut costs amid a steep fall in oil prices--from about $147 a barrel in July 2008 to below $40 a barrel in early 2009--and slowing global crude demand due to the worldwide recession.
The kingdom has announced plans to raise output to 15 million barrels a day of oil, but is waiting for global demand to pick up before going ahead with more increments.
Light, sweet crude futures for March delivery were trading $0.47 higher at $74.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1330 GMT.
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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Re: Double Whammy

Okay; I just looked up this "peak oil" stuff. Not surprisingly, there are as many opinions as assholes. What do the real experts think? I guess the secondary question would be: "who's paying for the expert's opinion?"
 

scrimmage

What you contemplate you imitate
Re: Double Whammy

Originally Posted by mr merlin:

Latest Risk to Alaska Gas Pipeline: More Gas
by Ben Casselman
The Wall Street Journal
Monday, February 01, 2010

The rival project, a joint venture of oil and gas producers BP PLC and ConocoPhillips, plans this spring to announce details of its own plans and begin its own bidding process. The project would stretch as much as 2,000 miles from Alaska and would cost an estimated $30 billion.
Mr. Palmer said TransCanada is considering two versions of the project, one of which would pipe gas through Canada and cost up to $41 billion, and another that would pipe the gas a shorter distance to Alaska's southern coast, where it could be transported by ship. That option would cost up to $26 billion. Either would be complete in 2020.

The industry and many outside experts now believe the U.S. has a century's supply of gas.

The uncertainty is making many Alaskans nervous. The state depends on revenue from the oil industry to fund nearly 90% of its budget, but oil production has been declining steadily for 20 years as giant fields such as Prudhoe Bay begin to dry up. State officials hope natural gas could help fill that void, but only if a pipeline gives producers a way to get that gas to market.



The fact that companies are considering spending anywhere from 26 to 41 billion for natural gas pipelines,which will take until 2020 to complete, shows the lengths the U.S needs to go to fill future energy demand.
Does the U.S. have a century's supply of gas,at the current rate of consumption ?,and if natural gas replaces oil the supply wouldn't last anywhere near that long.
The article also acknowledges "oil production has been steadily declining as giant fields ...begin to dry up".
At the end of the piece below natural gas is descibed as "not easily transported,and it is not suited for most equiptment."

Depletion of Key Resources:
Facts at Your Fingertips
By Peter Goodchild
27 January 2010
Excerpts from:
http://www.culturechange.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=597&Itemid=1

The ascent and descent of oil production are those of the famous promontory known as Hubbert?s curve. The back side of the mountain probably does not greatly resemble the front. It is likely that the descent will be rather steep, again because of synergistic factors. As oil declines, more energy and money must be devoted to getting the less-accessible and lower-quality oil out of the ground . In turn, as more energy and money are devoted to oil production, the production of metals and electricity becomes more difficult. One problem feeds on another. The issue can also be described in terms of sheer money: when oil production costs about 4.5 percent of the economy, the latter begins a downward spiral.
There is a final piece of ill luck that occurs after the peak. When individual countries such as the USA begin to run out of domestic oil, depletion can be mitigated by the importation of oil from other countries, so the descent is not as troublesome as it might have been. When the entire planet begins to run out of oil, however, there will be nowhere to turn in order to make up the difference. We cannot get oil from outer space .

Fossil Fuels

The entire world?s economy is based on oil and other fossil fuels. These provide fuel, lubricants, asphalt, paint, plastics, fertilizer, and many other products. In 1850, before commercial production began, there were about 2 trillion barrels of oil in the ground. By about the year 2010, half of that oil had been consumed, so about 1 trillion barrels remain. At the moment about 30 billion barrels of oil are consumed annually, and that is probably close to the maximum that will ever be possible. By the year 2030, some analysts say, oil production will be down to about half of that amount . [Editor's note: we must consider the factor of oil-industry inflexibility to contract and to maintain extraction if collapse has already hit the economy.

A vast amount of debate has gone on about ?peak oil,? the date at which the world?s annual oil production will reach (or did reach) its maximum and will begin (or did begin) to decline. The exact numbers are unobtainable, mainly because oil-producing countries give rather inexact figures on their remaining supplies. The situation can perhaps be summarized by saying that many studies have been done, and that the consensus is that the peak is somewhere between the years 2000 and 2020. Within that period, a middle date seems rather more likely. Among the many who have contributed to that debate are Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Colin J. Campbell, Jean Laherr?re, Dale Allen Pfeiffer, and Matthew R. Simmons, and the Association for the Study of Peak Oil has done its own appraisals.

The quest for the date of peak oil is somewhat of a red herring. In terms of daily life, what is more important is not peak oil in the absolute sense, but peak oil per capita. The date of the latter was 1979, when there were 5.5 barrels of oil per person annually, as opposed to 4.5 in 2007 . This per-capita date of 1979 for oil consumption is the same as that noted above for per-capita consumption of energy in general.
Coal and natural gas are also disappearing. Coal will be available for a while after oil is gone, although previous reports of its abundance in the US were highly exaggerated . Coal is highly polluting and cannot be used as a fuel for most forms of transportation. Natural gas is not easily transported, and it is not suitable for most equipment.
 

tank

EOG Dedicated
Re: Double Whammy

Okay; I just looked up this "peak oil" stuff. Not surprisingly, there are as many opinions as assholes. What do the real experts think? I guess the secondary question would be: "who's paying for the expert's opinion?"
I know what you mean. Just when I think we are running out the other one will post something to make you think we are not.Very good thread with a lot of good info.
 

scrimmage

What you contemplate you imitate
Re: Double Whammy



World Oil Capacity to Peak in
2010 Says Petrobras CEO

Posted by ace on February 4, 2010
Topic: Supply/Production
From:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6169

Mr. Gabrielli, the CEO of Petrobras, gave a presentation in December 2009 in which he shows world oil capacity, including biofuels, peaking in 2010 due to oil capacity additions from new projects being unable to offset world oil decline rates.

Petrobras chief executive Jose Sergio Gabrielli.
Gabrielli states in his presentation that the world needs oil volumes the equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every two years to offset future world oil decline rates.
This is a stronger statement than the one he gave in January 2009 in an interview with Business Week when he said the following.
According to the company's projections, production from existing fields will fall from a little over 80 million barrels a day to maybe half of that even if new techniques are used to slow their rate of decline. So just keeping global production flat is going to require lots of new fields and requires the world to replace one Saudi Arabia per three years.
Gabrielli is clearly concerned about declining future world oil production. His statements are now in alignment with those of other oil company executives including Sadad al-Husseini, former Aramco executive, who states that world oil production is on a peak plateau, and Total's CEO, Christophe de Margerie who doesn't see global oil production ever exceeding 89 million barrels per day (mbd). World oil production in December 2009 was only slightly lower at 86 mbd.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
Re: Double Whammy

Scrim - that gas pipeline from alaska might never be built...because there's too much gas and it wont be needed,... but if on the other hand, there isn't too much gas, then they will build it. Either way, no shortages anytime soon.
 

scrimmage

What you contemplate you imitate
Re: Double Whammy

Scrim - that gas pipeline from alaska might never be built...because there's too much gas and it wont be needed,... but if on the other hand, there isn't too much gas, then they will build it. Either way, no shortages anytime soon.

mr merlin;
One of your favorite sources The Wall Street Journal today acknowledges "peak oil... is no more than five years away",dispute that.
Natural gas can substitute for oil in some ways/things,but doesn't have the same overall utility as oil,is hard to transport,volatile,and if usage is ramped up will hit its own peak much sooner than at current rates of consumption,
BTW what does natural gas have to do with "peak oil"?
<SMALL>FEBRUARY 11, 2010</SMALL>
<!-- ID: SB10001424052748704140104575057260398292350 --><!-- TYPE: Patience Wheatcroft --><!-- DISPLAY-NAME: Patience Wheatcroft --><!-- PUBLICATION: The Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition --><!-- DATE: 2010-02-11 05:47 --><!-- COPYRIGHT: Dow Jones & Company, Inc. --><!-- ORIGINAL-ID: --><!-- article start --><!--CODE=DJII-REGION SYMBOL=eurzCODE=SUBJECT SYMBOL=OEUNCODE=STATISTIC SYMBOL=FREECODE=STATISTIC SYMBOL=FREEEUROPE-->The Next Crisis: Prepare for Peak Oil
Excerpts below from:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...60398292350.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_RIGHTTopCarousel

...A shortage of oil could be a real problem for the world within a fairly short period of time.

...while the global downturn may have delayed it by a couple of years, peak oil?the point at which global production reaches its maximum?is no more than five years away. Governments and corporations need to use the intervening years to speed up the development of and move toward other energy sources and increased energy efficiency.

...Lord Ron Oxburgh, a former chairman of Shell, wrote that "It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil. Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive." He went on to quote King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia commenting on a new oil find: "Leave it in the ground...our children need it."

It may be that the oil companies are keeping some giant secrets from us but that seems unlikely. So what lies ahead is a mismatch between supply and demand. According to Chris Skrebowski, of the Peak Oil Consulting firm, mid-2015 is when the crunch hits. "This is when capacity starts to be overwhelmed by depletion and lack of new capacity additions."

According to Philip Dilley, the chairman of Arup, the consulting engineers: "We must plan for a world in which oil prices are likely to be both higher and more volatile and where oil prices have the potential to destabilize economic, political and social activity."
 
Re: Double Whammy

How can anyone prattle on about this "peak oil" nonsense when the loony left doesn't even allow oil companies to explore for oil deposits within the United States? :+clueless
 

scrimmage

What you contemplate you imitate
Re: Double Whammy

How can anyone prattle on about this "peak oil" nonsense when the loony left doesn't even allow oil companies to explore for oil deposits within the United States? :+clueless

"Peak oil nonsense" when the source cited is the beacon of free market capitalism "The Wall Street Journal"?
Smear tactics have nothing to do with the exploration for oil,no matter where on the political spectrum someone lies,it doesn't change the geological fact that the easy oil has mostly been extracted from the continental U.S.
Yes there's still pockets of significant oil available in certain areas,like Alaska,or in the Gulf of Mexico,but they're time consuming and expensive to get at.
A change is gonna come by hook or by crook...



 

mr merlin

EOG Master
Re: Double Whammy

they're right scrim - no more cheap oil, the new oil coming will need a price of at least 60-70 a bbl... the days of $15- $25 oil are over. Just imagine how much oil there will be if the price hits $100?
 

scrimmage

What you contemplate you imitate
Re: Double Whammy

How can anyone prattle on about this "peak oil" nonsense when the loony left doesn't even allow oil companies to explore for oil deposits within the United States? :+clueless

BTW,nice choice of word Joe,as you must handle a lot of "loonies" in your everyday activities up north.


Terminology

Canadian English, like American English, uses the slang term "buck" for a dollar. (This term is Canadian in origin; it derives from a coin struck by the Hudson's Bay Company during the 17th century with a value equal to the pelt of a male beaver - a "buck".)
Because of the appearance of the common loon on the back of the dollar coin that replaced the dollar bill in 1987, the word "loonie" was adopted in Canadian parlance to distinguish the Canadian dollar coin from the dollar bill. When the two-dollar coin was introduced in 1996, the derivative word "toonie" became the common word for it in Canadian English slang.

In French, the currency is also called le dollar; Canadian French slang terms include piastre or piasse (same as "buck", but the original word used in eighteenth-century French to translate "dollar") and huard (equivalent to "loonie", since huard is French for "loon," the bird appearing on the coin).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_dollar

 

mr merlin

EOG Master
Re: Double Whammy

Petrobras Reaffirms Tupi Estimate at 5-8B Barrels
Petrobras
|
Friday, February 12, 2010



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Tupi Wells in BM-S-11​




Petrobras, would like to clarify the news published by the press about the results of extended well test (EWT) of Tupi, which started in May 2009. The EWT is occurring as planned by the company, whose main goal is to collect technical information for the development in pre-salt reservoirs.
The company reaffirms the estimated recoverable oil volume, broadly announced for Tupi, from 5 to 8 billion barrels. Only after the conclusion of the EWT and after the announcement of commerciality, Petrobras will have greater clarity of the number of platforms and their capabilities, necessary for the development and production of the area.
Brazil's largest discovery to date, Tupi was discovered in July 2006 and is located in block BM-S-11 in the Santos Basin, 155 miles (250 kilometers) from the southern coast of Rio de Janeiro.

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mr merlin

EOG Master
Re: Double Whammy

New Discoveries Sweeten Brazil's Campos Basin
by Jeff Fick
|
Dow Jones Newswires
|
Friday, February 12, 2010


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<!-- END: Toolbar --> RIO DE JANEIRO (Dow Jones), Feb. 11, 2010
Brazil's Campos Basin has long been the country's leading region for oil production, but in recent years it has taken a back seat to the Santos Basin in terms of exploration.
A series of recent discoveries, however, could change the way oil companies view Campos. The Campos Basin produces more than 85% of Brazil's crude oil -- a predominantly heavy grade that requires intense processing to turn it into more valuable derivatives.
The Campos Basin's massive oil infrastructure allows companies operating in the region to bring production online more quickly -- and there remains significant exploration left to be done in the prolific region.
Brazilian independent driller OGX Petroleo e Gas Participacoes SA (OGXP3.BR, OGXPY) has led the Campos Basin's recent renaissance. The company has made discoveries in the BM-C-41, BM-C-42 and BM-C-43 blocks.
In early February, OGX pegged recoverable reserves at two finds in the BM-C-41 and BM-C-42 blocks at between 600 million and 1.1 billion barrels.
Some of OGX's acreage previously belonged to Brazilian state-run energy giant Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR, PETR4.BR), or Petrobras. But Petrobras returned the blocks to regulators because, at that time, the fields weren't commercially viable. Higher international oil prices have changed that outlook.
Perhaps in light of OGX's success in territory formerly under its control, Petrobras said it had started to intensify exploration efforts near currently producing fields in an effort to reduce costs and bring new production onstream more quickly.
The strategy bore fruit with Thursday's announcement of a discovery in a well drilled near two currently producing fields.
Petrobras estimated recoverable reserves of 25 million barrels at the well, which is near the Pampo and Bicudo fields. The well is expected to start production later this year via connection to platforms at either Pampo or Bicudo, Petrobras said.
The Campos Basin efforts by both OGX and Petrobras highlight the basin's unique -- and now growing -- place in the offshore Brazil phenomenon. Not only is the Campos Basin a proven oil producer, but the area also offers several advantages over the Santos Basin that could make it more attractive to oil companies.
The Campos Basin has extensive infrastructure base already installed, with logistics and pipelines in place to transport crude oil and crews. Oil services companies and suppliers also have built factories at major cities on the coast.
The Santos Basin, meanwhile, has very little installed infrastructure. Oil fields in the Santos Basin also tend to be much further from shore than in its northern counterpart, further complicating logistics and transport issues.
But the global oil industry has so far been seduced by the light sweet crude that sits under a thick layer of salt deep under the Santos Basin seabed.
Development of the so-called subsalt oil fields -- including Tupi, the Western Hemisphere's largest oil discovery since 1976 -- is expected to be pricey and complicated. The oil lies under more than 2,000 meters of water and a further 5,000 meters under sand, rock and a shifting layer of salt.
Complicating matters are the Brazilian government's proposals to change the country's regulatory framework for the oil and natural gas industries. The changes will give the government a greater share in the deepwater fields and make Petrobras the lead developer.
Oil fields already under concession in the Campos Basin, however, should be free from government machinations. That's because the government has pledged to honor the existing contracts.
More important, the Santos Basin isn't alone in subsalt oil reserves. The Campos Basin also contains a little-explored subsalt region that isn't nearly as deep underwater nor as thick as the much-ballyhooed Santos Basin subsalt oil patch.
The renewed shine of the Campos Basin should also pay dividends for U.S. oil company Devon Energy (DVN), which has put prime acreage in the region up for bid.
Devon said last year that it would sell off its international assets -- including stakes in seven blocks in Brazil -- with the sales expected to generate between $4.5 billion and $7.5 billion. Devon expects to complete the sales in 2010.
Devon's seven offshore Brazil blocks hold about 20 prospects, with at least six possible subsalt plays, the company said. Possible resources were estimated at potentially between 2 billion and 4 billion barrels.
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="LightBlueSmall" height="20"> Company: Petrobras</td><td class="LightBlueSmall" style="text-align: right;" align="right">more info</td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="WhiteBlueSmall" style="padding: 5px;">Operates 56 Offshore Rigs
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- New Discoveries Sweeten Brazil's Campos Basin (Feb 12)
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</td></tr></tbody></table><table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="LightBlueSmall" height="20"> Company: Devon Energy</td><td class="LightBlueSmall" style="text-align: right;" align="right">more info</td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="WhiteBlueSmall" style="padding: 5px;">Operates 7 Offshore Rigs



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scrimmage

What you contemplate you imitate
Re: Double Whammy

Barclays and Bank of America
see looming oil crunch

For oil markets, it as if the Great Recession never happened. Surging demand in China, India and the Middle East is making up for decline in the debt-crippled West, ensuring another global crunch within three or four years.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Published:18 Feb 2010
From:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...d-Bank-of-America-see-looming-oil-crunch.html

Members of the Royal Welch Fusiliers charged with protecting oil pipelines in southern Iraq
Photo: JULIAN SIMMONDS

Bank of America and Barclays Capital, two leading oil traders, have told clients to brace for crude above $100 (?64) a barrel by next year, before it pushes relentlessly higher over the decade. This is a stark contrast from recessions in the 1980s and 1990s, when it took years to work off excess drilling capacity built in the boom.

"Oil has the potential to flirt with $100 this year. We forecast an average price of $137 by 2015," said Amrita Sen, an oil expert at BarCap. The price has doubled to $78 in the last year.

"The groundwork for the next sustained step up in oil prices is now almost complete. Global spare capacity is likely to be reduced to low levels within a relatively short time. The global economic crisis has postponed, but not cancelled, a crunch which would otherwise be starting to bite now," said Barclays.

Francisco Blanch, from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said crude may touch $105 next year, with $150 in sight by 2014. "Approximately 1.7bn consumers in emerging markets with a per capita income of $5,000 to $20,000 are eagerly waiting to buy cars, air-conditioning units, or white goods," he said.

China has overtaken the US as the world's top car market. Mr Blanch expects oil demand to rise by a further 2.8m barrels per day (bpd) in China and 2.5m bpd in India by 2015, when two giants will be absorbing the lion's share of Gulf output. Consumption in the West has already peaked and will fall each year as populations shrink and we waste less, but the West no longer sets the price. Global use will increase by 8.8m bpd to 95m bpd.

Supply is scarce. Sir Richard Branson warned this month that the world faces 'peak oil' within five years. "Don't let the oil crunch catch us out in the way that the credit crunch did," he said.

Mr Blanch said output from non-OPEC states is falling by 4.9pc each year, despite Russia's reserves. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates can plug a quarter of the gap, but global spare capacity must soon drop to wafer-thin levels ? leaving us vulnerable to the sort of "super-spike" seen in 2008. The wildcard is whether Iraq can quadruple output to Saudi levels this decade, a target dismissed by most analysts as pie-in-the-sky.

Painfully high prices are needed to unlock fresh supplies as reserves are depleted in the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Deep-water rigs off Brazil are costly and require drilling far below the seabed. Canadian oil sands and US biofuels have break-even costs near $70. While the US, UK, and the Far East are turning to nuclear power, it takes a decade to build reactors. "peak uranium" lurks in any case.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
Re: Double Whammy

Deep-water rigs off Brazil are costly and require drilling far below the seabed.
Ok? what does that mean? I guess we can't drill them wells then...wait a second...hmmm...we've already drilled them. if your right and oil does go to $100 plus and stays there, shit, we'll be swimming in oil.
 

scrimmage

What you contemplate you imitate
Re: Double Whammy

Deep-water rigs off Brazil are costly and require drilling far below the seabed.
Ok? what does that mean? I guess we can't drill them wells then...wait a second...hmmm...we've already drilled them. if your right and oil does go to $100 plus and stays there, shit, we'll be swimming in oil.

Didn't you read post #46 of this thread,even Petrobras'[Petroleum Brazil]chairman said oil would Peak in 2010,add that to the Wall Street Journal,Barclay's, Bank of America,and Richard Branson claiming basically the same thing, with minor variances in time,so there must be something to it[peak oil].
As the cost of oil goes up the cost of acquiring it from hard to get at deposits goes up too,there's no free lunch.Going far out to sea off the coast of Brazil,or anywhere else, is not as cost effective way a to produce energy,neither are tar sands,oil shale,or refining heavier grades of oil.
It's all about EROEI[energy return on energy invested],most of the light sweet,easy to get at oil's,been discovered,and is in significant long term decline.


 

mr merlin

EOG Master
Re: Double Whammy

Anadarko Aces First Deepwater Find Offshore Mozambique
Anadarko Petroleum Corp.
|
Thursday, February 18, 2010


<table width="100%" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr valign="top"> <td id="divArticleText">
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Belford Dolphin​




Anadarko announced the Windjammer exploration well in the frontier Rovuma Basin offshore Mozambique has reached an intermediate casing point and encountered more than 480 net feet of natural gas pay in high-quality reservoir sands, with a gross column of more than 1,200 feet. To date, this well has tested one of the seven identified play types in Anadarko's operated acreage offshore Mozambique.
"The intermediate results of the Windjammer well are positive for the partnership and the people of Mozambique," said Bob Daniels, Anadarko Sr. Vice President, Worldwide Exploration. "This is true rank wildcat exploration, and to have our first deepwater exploration well result in a discovery with more than 480 net feet of pay, thus far, is a strong indication of the potential of this basin. The Windjammer discovery de-risks a substantial portion of approximately 50 leads and prospects that we've identified across our 2.6-million-acre position in the basin."
To date, the Windjammer well has been drilled to a depth of approximately 14,000 feet in about 4,800 feet of water, approximately 30 miles east of the Mozambique coastline. The company anticipates drilling another 4,100 feet in this well to gain additional geological information prior to reaching total depth.
After testing the deeper objectives in the well, Anadarko plans to move the Belford Dolphin drillship to its Collier prospect less than 50 miles south-southeast of Windjammer. Anadarko also expects to drill two to four additional exploration wells in the Rovuma Basin this year, with initial well results from Windjammer and Collier determining which prospects are drilled next.
Anadarko is the operator with an approximate 43-percent paying interest in the well. Co-owners in the well are BPRL Ventures Mozambique B.V. (11.75 percent), Cove Energy Mozambique Rovuma Offshore, Ltd. (10 percent), Mitsui E&P Mozambique Area 1, Limited (23.5 percent) and Videocon Mozambique Rovuma 1 Limited (11.75 percent). Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos, ep's 15-percent interest was carried through the exploration phase.

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- Anadarko Aces First Deepwater Find Offshore Mozambique (Feb 18)
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</td></tr></tbody></table><table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="LightBlueSmall" height="20"> Company: Cove Energy plc</td><td class="LightBlueSmall" style="text-align: right;" align="right">more info</td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="WhiteBlueSmall" style="padding: 5px;"> - Anadarko Unlocks First Mozambique Deepwater Discovery (Feb 18)
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