EOG's Best Bet thread for Thursday, September 19

KevinStott11

KevinStott11

EOG Veteran
Posting For Sunday (in Saturday spot) with 3’s still on board...
Sunday, September 21, 2019—487 Rams -3 -110 (Peppermill)

8:20 pm EDT/5:20 pm PDT (NBC)—QB Jared Goff (6-4, 222) and the defending NFC champion Los Angeles Rams (2-0 SU/ATS) head to Cleveland (Cloudy with occasional Rain Showers, 68°, 71% Humidity, Winds SW 14 mph) to face QB Baker Mayfield and the Browns (1-1 SU/ATS) in an inter-conference battle from FirstEnergy Stadium (Kentucky Bluegrass) on Sunday Night Football. Oddsmakers opened the Rams as 2½-point Favorites Offshore on Sunday night and now (Wednesday) 3’s cover the board there and here in Las Vegas.

With that early movement up and the game an isolated prime time affair, locking in at 3 seems wise and anyone laying 2½ early on may have gotten the best of it. Many shops might not want to move off of the Key Number of 3, but with Covers.com showing a 78%-22% (LAR-CLE) imbalance, the 3½’s may pop up this weekend or Sunday, closer to kickoff time.

The Rams (6-1 ATS L7; Super Bowl) have done well lately in September (5-1 ATS), on Grass (5-1 ATS) and on Road (4-1 ATS L5) but have been poor in Week 3, going 3-9 ATS L12 in a Trend dating back to when the team was still in St Louis. WR Odell Beckham (Probable) and the Browns are 12-53-1 L66 overall and 23-41-2 ATS L66 (35.9%) and 0-7 ATS L7 after allowing less than 16 points in their last game and 9-21 ATS LL30 Home games overall. The Rams are 4-1 ATS L5 in the series, winning and covering ATS the last meeting, 24-6 in 2015 (RAMS -6) when the franchise was still located in the Gateway City.




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Stud Aaron Donald and the Rams have yet to trail this still early 2019 NFL Regular Season, and LA NFC has yet to allow a Passing TD and have given up only one completion of more than 20 yards (5.52 ypc, #3). This, after holding Tom Brady in check in the Super Bowl. And with the Pats shining and getting so much noise with their start and the genius Antonio Brown signing, HC Sean McVay (20-17-1 ATS) and his Rams, have to be thinking, “Hey, what about us?” Hey you dwell on the West Coast where news takes a backseat to the East Coast and the USA power-whore cities on NYC and Washington, DC.

With Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters in the same DB, as well as Eric Weddle and Nickell Robey-Coleman, Beckham will have trouble trying to be the center of attention here with the Rams no doubt wanting not to allow a TD and keep the streak going. And with maybe the most dominating Defensive players in the NFL in years in 2-time MVP Donald and production guys Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods all healthy at WR, Goff should be able to engineer some decent drives and get 3 TDs against Myles Garrett and the Brownies D.

How many TDs will Cleveland get? Stopping RB Nick Chubb seems like it will be the biggest test for the visitors from LA, but this team looks and feels as strong as last year’s Super Bowl model. And there’s your handicap. I am going to post this now on Thursday as I can tell by the juice on the 3’s at some of the Offshore books when taking the Rams is at a point where they don’t want to be the first to get off 3 and move to 3½. It’s Thursday. This Point Spread is destined to move (upward) off this Key Number, so I’ll bet it later today, laying the 3 on my Orange level ($22/33). Gotta go. My Pain is really beating on me today, for now at least.

Rams 27 Browns 17
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Heim

Heim

EOG Master
Rumor RJ Bell checks the leaderboard here looking for new blood. So keep your numbers up boys. When your $5 pick sells u get to keep $1.73.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
VegasVic said:
On this as well but not sure I’m crazy about it considering the effort Avs showed against the Knights on Tuesday.

GL to us.
Click to expand...

Word has it the Avs are playing everyone and Dallass is playing NO ONE which is why this line started around -150 and is now -215ish. Same as last night when Canes played everyone, Tampa played no one and Canes won 2-0. If this goes as expected Avs should win by at least 2 and maybe more
 
P

Patrick McIrish

OCCams raZOR
NCAAF

Houston +5 (Painted)

Took some ML action too, think they win this game outright.

Houston 31-21!!

PS - Meant to play this in the Challenge but fucked up my days......sigh.
 
VegasVic

VegasVic

EOG Addicted
winkyduck said:
Word has it the Avs are playing everyone and Dallass is playing NO ONE which is why this line started around -150 and is now -215ish. Same as last night when Canes played everyone, Tampa played no one and Canes won 2-0. If this goes as expected Avs should win by at least 2 and maybe more
Click to expand...

Understood. Only reason I’m taking it as well. Lots of huge line moves in NHL exhibition. Bet them early. As you did.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
winkyduck said:
Pinny

Avs PL +153
Click to expand...

Updated

Winkyduck 564-757-39 +15.11 UNITS (Chelsea-Liverpool OVER 3 -104; Robert Kraft to be suspended 5-8 weeks +125; Raiders RSW U6 -125 and Julio Jones Most Reg Season Rec Yards +750 and Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Sheffield United to finish DFL in PL +300; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400)
 
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