Handicapping - How to go from 1-0 to 0-2

[NowshesmyRuca]

I'm on a hell of a run with my own handicapping but I really need to tune out the noise around me.

Capped the La Tech N Tex game and fell in the love with the over mostly because of NTs terrible defense and penchant for putting up points themselves. I'm all about the OVER 66.

Turn on a podcast and listen to someone rant on and on how they don't how La Tech is going to come up with ANY offense using their 4th string QB and multiple guys opting out. He loves NT because they always score a shitload points blah blah blah....

So I'm like shit I'll just take NT team total over and since he loves NT so much I'll hit them up too.

And that folks is how you turn a 1-0 into 0-2

 

[choslamshe]

Feel ya. The number of losses I take by switching my hunch to another is sickening. I can take the many, many losses I create for myself, but its these that you mention are extra tough to stomach.

 

[railbird]

I'm on a hell of a run with my own handicapping but I really need to tune out the noise around me.

Capped the La Tech N Tex game and fell in the love with the over mostly because of NTs terrible defense and penchant for putting up points themselves. I'm all about the OVER 66.

Turn on a podcast and listen to someone rant on and on how they don't how La Tech is going to come up with ANY offense using their 4th string QB and multiple guys opting out. He loves NT because they always score a shitload points blah blah blah....

So I'm like shit I'll just take NT team total over and since he loves NT so much I'll hit them up too.

And that folks is how you turn a 1-0 into 0-2

im way behind listening to other people

 

[cheapseats]

I look, listen and read, but stay on my own path. You obviously give others credit where it is not due.

 

[John Kelly]

I'm on a hell of a run with my own handicapping but I really need to tune out the noise around me.

Capped the La Tech N Tex game and fell in the love with the over mostly because of NTs terrible defense and penchant for putting up points themselves. I'm all about the OVER 66.

Turn on a podcast and listen to someone rant on and on how they don't how La Tech is going to come up with ANY offense using their 4th string QB and multiple guys opting out. He loves NT because they always score a shitload points blah blah blah....

So I'm like shit I'll just take NT team total over and since he loves NT so much I'll hit them up too.

And that folks is how you turn a 1-0 into 0-2

Now that's honesty.

Listen to everyone, follow no one.

By listening to everyone, you come to learn that most people who are talking and selling are simply talkers and sellers.

Those in the know are too busy betting.

 

[NowshesmyRuca]

Now that's honesty.

Listen to everyone, follow no one.

By listening to everyone, you come to learn that most people who are talking and selling are simply talkers and sellers.

Those in the know are too busy betting.

I like that mantra.

For the record he said AF could name their score.

I just needed to vent.

 

[Patrick McIrish]

I can identify although when I get on a run I don't listen to a fing soul. I'm expecting to win every bet.

My problem is more when I can't buy a game and expect/ask/hope/pray someone else can give me a winner.

 

[WildBill]

Sucks when it happens, but be honest with yourself. At some point in your recent past you switched a bet because of something someone else point out and you turned a loser into a winner. That's just how the betting world goes. When you are hot these kinds of decisions always seem to work out. Handling winning and losing streaks are what separates those who survive for decades doing this and those who bust out enough times to be done.

 

[Sportsrmylife]

Is that podcast feature a poster from here?

 

[jimmythegreek]

I feel for you but no matter how you slice it, it's officially an 0-1-1.

 

[kane]

Now that's honesty.

Listen to everyone, follow no one.

By listening to everyone, you come to learn that most people who are talking and selling are simply talkers and sellers.

Those in the know are too busy betting.

Sound advice John. Here's what I do, I cap my own games, every week I have a list of college and NFL plays I like, but there's always a few games I like but don't have 100% confidence in, games where I go back and forth trying to figure out if I should play any of them or not. Now, there are a handful of sharps who's opinion's I respect, so what I do is listen to podcasts or follow their twitter accounts to see if any of them have a feel for any of the games I'm vacillating on, if a couple of them agree with any of the games I wasn't sure about, then that will typically be enough for me to make a play on that game. I'll give you guys a perfect example of what I mean, this week in the Colts/Texans game I was looking at the Under, it wasn't something I was completely sold on, but a game where I liked the Under a little, but was undecided if I should play it, well it turns out a couple of my "stable of sharps" also like the Under, so that takes me from a play I liked but wasn't positive about, to a play I just made a little while ago. Everyone should cap their own stuff, then find someone, or a few people who you respect and use them as an additional source of info.

 

[kane]

I should also add, if there's a play I like, I play it regardless of what anyone else thinks, I would never allow myself to be talked off a play because some sharps are against me. This week my favorite play is probably Atlanta +3.5, and even if every sharp I follow likes the Saints, it won't take me off the Falcons, you have to trust yourself

 

[NowshesmyRuca]

Sound advice John. Here's what I do, I cap my own games, every week I have a list of college and NFL plays I like, but there's always a few games I like but don't have 100% confidence in, games where I go back and forth trying to figure out if I should play any of them or not. Now, there are a handful of sharps who's opinion's I respect, so what I do is listen to podcasts or follow their twitter accounts to see if any of them have a feel for any of the games I'm vacillating on, if a couple of them agree with any of the games I wasn't sure about, then that will typically be enough for me to make a play on that game. I'll give you guys a perfect example of what I mean, this week in the Colts/Texans game I was looking at the Under, it wasn't something I was completely sold on, but a game where I liked the Under a little, but was undecided if I should play it, well it turns out a couple of my "stable of sharps" also like the Under, so that takes me from a play I liked but wasn't positive about, to a play I just made a little while ago. Everyone should cap their own stuff, then find someone, or a few people who you respect and use them as an additional source of info.

Yeah bottom line here is I shouldn't have let it change my bet. NT has had 6 teams score over 40 on them and only held a team under 31 ONCE all year. It shouldn't matter if the QB was a transfer from St Marys School for Nuns its still North Texas and their deplorable defense. Another lesson learned. haha

 

[FairWarning]

Is that podcast feature a poster from here?

To be fair, the same podcast nailed the App St game.

 

[NowshesmyRuca]

To be fair, the same podcast nailed the App St game.

5-9 so far today. Most of his misses aren't even close.

This is the 4th week I've followed 1 winning weak in there and one week was a complete disaster.

Seems like a nice enough guy but nothing more than a coin flipper.

Good for a listen see if anything stands out.

 

[Sportsrmylife]

5-9 so far today. Most of his misses aren't even close.

This is the 4th week I've followed 1 winning weak in there and one week was a complete disaster.

Seems like a nice enough guy but nothing more than a coin flipper.

Good for a listen see if anything stands out.

He did admit at the beginning of the podcast that he has lost the last three weeks.

When you listen to his insight there isn't anything that seems like fluff and has solid merit but it hasnt' translated into winning bets.

Some bad misses like Bowling Green/Akron over.

He is much better than a coin flipper that's for sure. He does his homework and bets his opinion.

Sometimes bad runs happen but he isn't someone I would fade.

 

[FairWarning]

He did admit at the beginning of the podcast that he has lost the last three weeks.

When you listen to his insight there isn't anything that seems like fluff and has solid merit but it hasnt' translated into winning bets.

Some bad misses like Bowling Green/Akron over.

He is much better than a coin flipper that's for sure. He does his homework and bets his opinion.

Sometimes bad runs happen but he isn't someone I would fade.

The nice thing about his info is much of it applies to the teams as the season progresses. Now this is a tough time of the year with finals, the virus and whether you are playing or not, players checking out for their benefit, etc. He focuses on a lot on middle-tier and lesser programs, That is where the real value can be had.

 

[Drnkyourmlkshk]

5-9 so far today. Most of his misses aren't even close.

This is the 4th week I've followed 1 winning weak in there and one week was a complete disaster.

Seems like a nice enough guy but nothing more than a coin flipper.

Good for a listen see if anything stands out.

Sorry man. I'd suggest betting your own stuff and if you learn something that can apply to a strong opinion that would be worth adding. I also said I wouldnt bet N. Texas at current number. Beat market by 3 and never had a chance. Rough stretch for me. Probably worst of my handicapping life. Good numbers and good feelings all week, games start and it goes left.

Probably gonna nix podcast after reading this. I hate losing others money. One of the numerous reasons I wouldnt tout this year. I knew cancellations and things of the like would make it difficult. Again my apologies.
Still up for the year but its getting pretty choppy. Past month been dreadful.
Take care and goodluck to all

 

[WildBill]

The nice thing about his info is much of it applies to the teams as the season progresses. Now this is a tough time of the year with finals, the virus and whether you are playing or not, players checking out for their benefit, etc. He focuses on a lot on middle-tier and lesser programs, That is where the real value can be had.

Very true. Seems like a lot of teams are not following a season long pattern but instead having 2 or 3 runs in either direction. Having a lot practices canceled and some teams going weeks without playing probably has a lot to do with it as well. Really a throw away season for most programs, five years from now we'll be excluding the anomaly year this has been for a lot of big names. And because of that I think a lot of the draftable guys are being careful not to get hurt and focusing on showing off what they need to get that call in April.

 

[NowshesmyRuca]

I ended up going 7-12 yesterday on his plays.

The misses were just not even close -17.5 fav loses outright. Thought Kst could hang with Texas......

Some of the winners were just outright lucky UNDER 51 each team scored on every single drive until the 1st punt midway through the 3rd quarter. Fortunate it was a kickers duel.

Nobody's putting a gun to my head a forcing me to play his plays.

 

[John Kelly]

Good point, 'Ruca.

Once you call out the wager and receive the ticket or sign on to the phone/computer and hit the submit button, it becomes your wager.

 

[John Kelly]

Sorry man. I'd suggest betting your own stuff and if you learn something that can apply to a strong opinion that would be worth adding. I also said I wouldnt bet N. Texas at current number. Beat market by 3 and never had a chance. Rough stretch for me. Probably worst of my handicapping life. Good numbers and good feelings all week, games start and it goes left.

Probably gonna nix podcast after reading this. I hate losing others money. One of the numerous reasons I wouldnt tout this year. I knew cancellations and things of the like would make it difficult. Again my apologies.
Still up for the year but its getting pretty choppy. Past month been dreadful.
Take care and goodluck to all

I'm rooting for you, Drink.

This too shall pass.

 

[FairWarning]

Sorry man. I'd suggest betting your own stuff and if you learn something that can apply to a strong opinion that would be worth adding. I also said I wouldnt bet N. Texas at current number. Beat market by 3 and never had a chance. Rough stretch for me. Probably worst of my handicapping life. Good numbers and good feelings all week, games start and it goes left.

Probably gonna nix podcast after reading this. I hate losing others money. One of the numerous reasons I wouldnt tout this year. I knew cancellations and things of the like would make it difficult. Again my apologies.
Still up for the year but its getting pretty choppy. Past month been dreadful.
Take care and goodluck to all

The podcasts are a nice info tool that can be used in concert with ones opinion of the game. It can build a base for someone also. No guns to anyone's head.

One bit of info that you mentioned in the Louisana-App St game was how much Louisana wanted this game, how it would make their season. Don't know if Louisana is playing next week, but this info talls you that they may be flat next week after a satisfying win.

 

[kane]

I ended up going 7-12 yesterday on his plays.

The misses were just not even close -17.5 fav loses outright. Thought Kst could hang with Texas......

Some of the winners were just outright lucky UNDER 51 each team scored on every single drive until the 1st punt midway through the 3rd quarter. Fortunate it was a kickers duel.

Nobody's putting a gun to my head a forcing me to play his plays.

Ruca, it's difficult to blindly tail all of Eddie's plays and here's why. He does his podcast on Thursdays, but by that time the numbers (especially totals) have moved a lot, Eddie gets down early in the week, so for example the host says Toledo 4 and the total is 56, Eddie says he likes the Under, but the thing is he bet the game early in the week and he probably got a much better line, so let's say he played Under 59.5, with the total now at 56 there isn't much you can do, I'm not saying he gets the best of every number, but way more often than not he does, that's why he's a pro. Using the example above, if the Toledo game lands 58, you lost by tailing, but more than likely Eddie won. You're better off using his Pod as a tool, another tool in your arsenal in the capping of games, rather than just blindly tailing his plays since you're likely not getting the same number as he is, and in some cases not close to the numbers he's getting. Also listen to what he says, not just the plays, but the little bits of commentary, that's info that can be used down the road

 

[NowshesmyRuca]

Ruca, it's difficult to blindly tail all of Eddie's plays and here's why. He does his podcast on Thursdays, but by that time the numbers (especially totals) have moved a lot, Eddie gets down early in the week, so for example the host says Toledo 4 and the total is 56, Eddie says he likes the Under, but the thing is he bet the game early in the week and he probably got a much better line, so let's say he played Under 59.5, with the total now at 56 there isn't much you can do, I'm not saying he gets the best of every number, but way more often than not he does, that's why he's a pro. Using the example above, if the Toledo game lands 58, you lost by tailing, but more than likely Eddie won. You're better off using his Pod as a tool, another tool in your arsenal in the capping of games, rather than just blindly tailing his plays since you're likely not getting the same number as he is, and in some cases not close to the numbers he's getting. Also listen to what he says, not just the plays, but the little bits of commentary, that's info that can be used down the road

I totally agree. As far as yesterday goes I bet everything on Thursday and got the same numbers they were talking about on the podcast I have 8 outs so in some cases I got even better numbers.

I also recommend listening to it after the games are over, it's good for a chuckle. I mean I know you have to have confidence in what your playing but.....

I remember 3 or 4 weeks ago when he said AirForce had packed it in, quit, done for season. He said it with such confidence.

 

[Sportsrmylife]

Good point Kane.

I like it when eddie says "I like the under at 59. at 55 it's a pass now" as it give some parameters to his plays.

If he says "I liked it at 59 and a little bit at 57" gives you an idea that it could be a small bet if you agree.

I hope Eddie doesn't stop the podcast as the value is there for the people looking for it. I also believe he enjoys doing the show with Andrew too. At least that is my read based on his energy on the show.

 

[Drnkyourmlkshk]

1. Yes I beat the market (by a lot) and make a cognizant effort to address what I would or wouldnt play at.
2. There is zero reason for us to do a podcast other than I really enjoyed doing it. That's been a little lost. When I was up 25 units November 12th. Where was this thread? It's a completely thankless endeavour and actually quite the contrary.
3. This guy is mad at beating the market if he bet on Thursday. You got positive equity on more games than you didnt for free.
Are you serious?
I have apologized even though it's not up to me to hold a gamblers hand through decisions but I understand your frustration and thank all for listening over the years.

 

[NowshesmyRuca]

1. Yes I beat the market (by a lot) and make a cognizant effort to address what I would or wouldnt play at.
2. There is zero reason for us to do a podcast other than I really enjoyed doing it. That's been a little lost. When I was up 25 units November 12th. Where was this thread? It's a completely thankless endeavour and actually quite the contrary.
3. This guy is mad at beating the market if he bet on Thursday. You got positive equity on more games than you didnt for free.
Are you serious?
I have apologized even though it's not up to me to hold a gamblers hand through decisions but I understand your frustration and thank all for listening over the years.

haha thats the 1st time I listened to the podcast. Guess I was late to the party.

I'm not mad at all. Sure the 1st post was out of frustration but I'm not angry.

I was betting $300 a game on your plays since the 12th. I don't have to tell you how that's gone.

Please don't stop doing the podcast because of my dumbass.

 

[kane]

1. Yes I beat the market (by a lot) and make a cognizant effort to address what I would or wouldnt play at.
2. There is zero reason for us to do a podcast other than I really enjoyed doing it. That's been a little lost. When I was up 25 units November 12th. Where was this thread? It's a completely thankless endeavour and actually quite the contrary.
3. This guy is mad at beating the market if he bet on Thursday. You got positive equity on more games than you didnt for free.
Are you serious?
I have apologized even though it's not up to me to hold a gamblers hand through decisions but I understand your frustration and thank all for listening over the years.

Eddie, Ruca wasn't even aware of your podcast until just the other week, he's just venting, he tailed and had a rough day so he's just "letting it out", I'm sure he doesn't hold any ill will toward you at all. You're a pro, you've had ups and downs, good weeks and bad ones, obviously more good than bad or you wouldn't be in the position you are. AFAIK you get nothing financially from the podcast, it's not like you're a tout trying to sign up clients, you give away your plays and info for free, I'm sure there are a lot of guys who appreciate you doing it, but don't always take the time to tell you so, I know I do.

 

[FairWarning]

Eddie, while you’re here - what in the heck happened to Marshall? Were they missing players?

 

[kane]

Eddie, while you’re here - what in the heck happened to Marshall? Were they missing players?

That game was a definite head scratcher, If I'm not mistaken I think Rice was without their QB as well

 

[Drnkyourmlkshk]

Eddie, while you’re here - what in the heck happened to Marshall? Were they missing players?

It's not just Ruca obv. We get nothing for doing the podcast and to have critical comments of any kind just erks the hell out of me. When you win pure silence. It's absolutely not worth the effort. Ruca was one of many that made some comments which he is absolutely welcome to do so that's the risk you take when you put yourself out there. No biggie and it was a fun ride for the last 4 years but has definitely run its course on my end.
Everyone else has moved onto hoops which I do in 10 days as well.
Marshall was going to get got at some point but I thought itd be uab. I'm a big Marshall fan, my favorite coach but completely inefficient offense and great run d but they havent played a really great offense all season somehow and might escape the year without having to. Future is bright but Holliday has to go back to his roots and start scoring again going forward.

 

[FairWarning]

It's not just Ruca obv. We get nothing for doing the podcast and to have critical comments of any kind just erks the hell out of me. When you win pure silence. It's absolutely not worth the effort. Ruca was one of many that made some comments which he is absolutely welcome to do so that's the risk you take when you put yourself out there. No biggie and it was a fun ride for the last 4 years but has definitely run its course on my end.
Everyone else has moved onto hoops which I do in 10 days as well.
Marshall was going to get got at some point but I thought itd be uab. I'm a big Marshall fan, my favorite coach but completely inefficient offense and great run d but they havent played a really great offense all season somehow and might escape the year without having to. Future is bright but Holliday has to go back to his roots and start scoring again going forward.

Thanks for answering.

That's just the nature of the business. Unfortunately you need to have a little asshole in you to not take the critics personally. Handling other peoples money (even indirectly) brings them out. You've asked in the past why touting gets a bad rap, now you know why. You can have 6 great days and I play the 7th and get buried, you hear about the 7th only.

We appreciate the nuggets you throw out there.

 

[kane]

Thanks for answering.

That's just the nature of the business. Unfortunately you need to have a little asshole in you to not take the critics personally. Handling other peoples money (even indirectly) brings them out. You've asked in the past why touting gets a bad rap, now you know why. You can have 6 great days and I play the 7th and get buried, you hear about the 7th only.

We appreciate the nuggets you throw out there.

Very well put

 

[Patrick McIrish]

5-9 so far today. Most of his misses aren't even close.

This is the 4th week I've followed 1 winning weak in there and one week was a complete disaster.

Seems like a nice enough guy but nothing more than a coin flipper.

Good for a listen see if anything stands out.

Man, sorry to hear this Ruca.

You guys are talking about Eddie from RAS?

Regardless who it is, you're too qualified in your own right to follow anyone blindly IMO.

So listeners paid for the right to go 5-9 and get destroyed the last month?

Sigh.

Hate to hear about this stuff, hustlers can go 5-9 and make money while decent Joe's get the shit kicked out of them.

That's why they sell their opinions rather than bet them. Freeroll city.

 

[Patrick McIrish]

You can have 6 great days and I play the 7th and get buried, you hear about the 7th only.

It works the other way too......

When the tout is winning you hear about it 7 ways to Sunday. When losing it gets very quiet.

I wouldn't feel too sorry for them, they are after all absolutely freerolling with everyone else's money......

I'm sure they can fake a little empathy for the suckers who follow them.

 

[FairWarning]

Man, sorry to hear this Ruca.

You guys are talking about Eddie from RAS?

Regardless who it is, you're too qualified in your own right to follow anyone blindly IMO.

So listeners paid for the right to go 5-9 and get destroyed the last month?

Sigh.

Hate to hear about this stuff, hustlers can go 5-9 and make money while decent Joe's get the shit kicked out of them.

That's why they sell their opinions rather than bet them. Freeroll city.

It was a free podcast of his on BettorIQ

 

[NowshesmyRuca]

Man, sorry to hear this Ruca.

You guys are talking about Eddie from RAS?

Regardless who it is, you're too qualified in your own right to follow anyone blindly IMO.

So listeners paid for the right to go 5-9 and get destroyed the last month?

Sigh.

Hate to hear about this stuff, hustlers can go 5-9 and make money while decent Joe's get the shit kicked out of them.

That's why they sell their opinions rather than bet them. Freeroll city.

Not a tout. Just a nice guy sharing his opinions on a free podcast.

 

[Drnkyourmlkshk]

I'm on a hell of a run with my own handicapping but I really need to tune out the noise around me.

Capped the La Tech N Tex game and fell in the love with the over mostly because of NTs terrible defense and penchant for putting up points themselves. I'm all about the OVER 66.

Turn on a podcast and listen to someone rant on and on how they don't how La Tech is going to come up with ANY offense using their 4th string QB and multiple guys opting out. He loves NT because they always score a shitload points blah blah blah....

So I'm like shit I'll just take NT team total over and since he loves NT so much I'll hit them up too.

And that folks is how you turn a 1-0 into 0-2

He loves them so much he wouldnt lay any points with them. That's what I get for (not actually) listening to other people. However at least I can escape my own responsibility if something were to lose.
Ahh and please take a look at my response to this thread. Does it appear I'm a man who cant admit to losses?

 

[NowshesmyRuca]

He loves them so much he wouldnt lay any points with them. That's what I get for (not actually) listening to other people. However at least I can escape my own responsibility if something were to lose.
Ahh and please take a look at my response to this thread. Does it appear I'm a man who cant admit to losses?

Can you point out the exact time you say that? You say they can win outright and I heard you say you're not OVERLY confident laying points which infers you are confident just not OVERLY confident.