Horse racing thread

V

Valuist

EOG Master
Re: Friday's horse racing thread

Re: Friday's horse racing thread

John Kelly said:
I love betting big money on big-money races.

Bigger pools and more false favorites or overhyped horses.

Additionally, you don't have to guess about trainer intent.
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Overhyped horses lead to value elsewhere. Also, some horses get "lost". Look at The Leiutenant, the full brother to Justify in last Saturday's Suburban. He had been beaten twice by Dr. Dorr at SA by 4-5 lengths, but those were races where Dr. Dorr had a good setup and was able to get a clear lead, so the public dismissed him. He never was a threat to win, but rallied for second at 30/1 behind Diversify for a monster exacta.
 
2

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
Re: Friday's horse racing thread

Re: Friday's horse racing thread

trytrytry said:
where is waiver protected listed in the racing form?
actually how are you using the term Waiver protected?
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This is for claiming races.
You'll either need to consult the program, or in the DRF you'll notice in a claiming race the horse won't have a claiming price listed.
Horses that are laid off for 180+ days are eligible to return at or above their previous race's claiming price if they were in for a tag, w/out the risk of claim. They can be waiver protected.
 
trytrytry

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
Re: Friday's horse racing thread

Re: Friday's horse racing thread

2W2P2S said:
This is for claiming races.
You'll either need to consult the program, or in the DRF you'll notice in a claiming race the horse won't have a claiming price listed.
Horses that are laid off for 180+ days are eligible to return at or above their previous race's claiming price if they were in for a tag w/out the risk of claim, they can be waiver protected.
Click to expand...

all states agree on that???
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Re: Friday's horse racing thread

Re: Friday's horse racing thread

I try to avoid too many black and white rules, but I do have two: never bet on any horse coming off a layoff of over a year. In fact horses that have been off just over a year are often overbet. For instance, lets say a horse last ran on June 15 of 2017, some lazy handicappers think the horse just ran 3 weeks ago. Sounds crazy, but I've seen newspaper handicappers and public handicappers write comments like "in great form" with horses like that. Besides, if you are off over a year, there was a major problem. Maybe Chad Brown can get one of these to win off the layoff, but he would probably be overbet anyways. The other tossout is any horse who bled thru Lasix. Don't see this comment too much, but it comes up every now and then. Once they have bled thru Lasix, it's likely they will again.
 
trytrytry

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
Re: Friday's horse racing thread

Re: Friday's horse racing thread

I cant even if Pegasus himself was in the stall bet a horse at Gulstream
in outside outside posts 9-14 posts in two-turn races on Gulfstream’s main track
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
Re: Friday's horse racing thread

Re: Friday's horse racing thread

Valuist said:
I try to avoid too many black and white rules, but I do have two: never bet on any horse coming off a layoff of over a year. In fact horses that have been off just over a year are often overbet. For instance, lets say a horse last ran on June 15 of 2017, some lazy handicappers think the horse just ran 3 weeks ago. Sounds crazy, but I've seen newspaper handicappers and public handicappers write comments like "in great form" with horses like that. Besides, if you are off over a year, there was a major problem. Maybe Chad Brown can get one of these to win off the layoff, but he would probably be overbet anyways. The other tossout is any horse who bled thru Lasix. Don't see this comment too much, but it comes up every now and then. Once they have bled thru Lasix, it's likely they will again.
Click to expand...

the fewer black and white rules the better
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
Re: Friday's horse racing thread

Re: Friday's horse racing thread

2W2P2S said:
Maybe at a Macro-Level, but there are certainly gems to be found w/in a local circuit.
And with relation to that and layoff horses, 180+ day horses that are eligible to be waiver protected and are not, are almost an immediate toss for me. Often times because of pre-lay off good form these types take money........and of course I like the opposite, 180+ horses that do come back waiver protected. One of the last good variables CG's are not incorporating.
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if someone is following and clued-in on a particular circuit thats one thing...what I posted was more of a rebuttal to betting on stakes races because all of the trainers are trying to win that race

these trainers arent putting together grand schemes and training plans..some may try ...basically its enter and hope the race goes...some of these tracks literally have 15 and 20 extras up each day

the racing secretary is trying to cobble together a racing card
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Horse racing thread

Horse racing is my favorite game to play despite the poor results.

I'm much better off investing in baseball and basketball but I hear the "Call to Post" and it draws me in every time.
 
2

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
Re: Friday's horse racing thread

Re: Friday's horse racing thread

trytrytry said:
the next time you notice it, and think of it post here a heads up. thanks
Click to expand...

Los Al TB Race 4- #6
Los Al TB Race 7- #5

It's a great spot in the 7th for Holly. He could have brought the horse back protected in a ALWs, but bringing back waiver protected here allows all the conditions open heading into Del Mar.
 
Ray Luca

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing thread

2W2P2S said:
Los Al TB Race 4- #6
Los Al TB Race 7- #5

It's a great spot in the 7th for Holly. He could have brought the horse back protected in a ALWs, but bringing back waiver protected here allows all the conditions open heading into Del Mar.
Click to expand...

75 is solid. Would book 46
 
Ray Luca

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing thread

2W2P2S said:
He'll be a big price, but booking Papaprodromou 90+ days you'd be broke.
Click to expand...

WAIT...I was looking at 7/12 card

Interesting. I have no edge on him in this race. And this one is 433 days.

I have both of these horses contenders.
 
trytrytry

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
Re: Friday's horse racing thread

Re: Friday's horse racing thread

2W2P2S said:
Los Al TB Race 4- #6
Los Al TB Race 7- #5

It's a great spot in the 7th for Holly. He could have brought the horse back protected in a ALWs, but bringing back waiver protected here allows all the conditions open heading into Del Mar.
Click to expand...

thanks will have a peak here.
 
WeinketoWarrick

WeinketoWarrick

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing thread

2W2P2S said:
Los Al TB Race 4- #6
Los Al TB Race 7- #5

It's a great spot in the 7th for Holly. He could have brought the horse back protected in a ALWs, but bringing back waiver protected here allows all the conditions open heading into Del Mar.
Click to expand...

Scratched
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing thread

Indiana Grand with a decent card tomorrow night.

A number of years ago, I was driving from Cincinnati towards Indianapolis on the interstate (I-74 I believe). I look on the horizon and I swear to God I see a racetrack (I have ridden on that road several times in the past) that was never there before. I thought I was hallucinating. When I got home, I went online and saw they were building Indiana Downs (now Indiana Grand).
 
2

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
Re: Friday's horse racing thread

Re: Friday's horse racing thread

trytrytry said:
the next time you notice it, and think of it post here a heads up. thanks
Click to expand...

This is the type I won't leave off my main horizontal tickets. Race #1 at DM, #8 Kristie's Heart.

The Good:
Following the path of this mares career we see great success leading to protection in a Alw16KS in Jan/2017. The horse is not seen for 6 months and is entered for a claiming price below the price which she was winning races before the layoff (this is a bit scary). However, the horse goes off at 3/5 and wins easily so we can assume while there is a definite injury risk associated with the horse, this was a dump. Off the claim, another 2 month layoff, returning to the same level, and a dull effort. This effort is definitely "soundness" related as the claims put in on the horse are voided by the vet.

Now, after 1 year away from the track, a 5YO Mare is brought back and not only is she waiver protected not to be eligible for claim, but she is entered in a level above what she qualifies to be protected. There can be no other motivation for a move like this unless the trainer feels the horse is now sound and has potential. Returning at a higher level, it's logical to assume may be ready this race.

The Bad:
Just about everything else
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
Re: horse racing Friday Thread

Re: horse racing Friday Thread

  • Unlimited subscription - No overages, unlimited usage
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      this is why racing can never make it back - too expensive just to get info


      sad
 
raininthrees

raininthrees

Point Spread Nomad
Re: Horse racing thread

I kno ridiculous, as my

$100 for my yearly Wall Street journal subscription.
$400 for one months usage of all DRF stuff I use, if
I wasn’t hooked up.

those numbers and take-outs, good luck to average joe’s...
 
Y

yisman

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing thread

yes, they charge for info and the takeout is outrageous, plus a lot of tracks aren't even up front about how much their takeout is.


I used to have a site where it listed the takeout for various tracks but it got taken down. I have a hell of a time trying to find takeout on the track's website.
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing thread

yisman said:
yes, they charge for info and the takeout is outrageous, plus a lot of tracks aren't even up front about how much their takeout is.


I used to have a site where it listed the takeout for various tracks but it got taken down. I have a hell of a time trying to find takeout on the track's website.
Click to expand...



so it is a set price for takeout ? a percent I guess ? different types of horse racing too ?
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing thread

HANA had takeout rates on its site.
Brisnet Ultimate is 75/month unlimited data...fair price and its better than DRF
 
WeinketoWarrick

WeinketoWarrick

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing thread

Is there a way to figure what the takeout is based off final off odds? Or because of breakage are you only able to calculate it to a 3-4% range?
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing thread

I use that site at times to grab a quick look at a race from another perspective
 
trytrytry

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
Re: Horse racing thread

yisman said:
yes, they charge for info and the takeout is outrageous, plus a lot of tracks aren't even up front about how much their takeout is.


I used to have a site where it listed the takeout for various tracks but it got taken down. I have a hell of a time trying to find takeout on the track's website.
Click to expand...

JK himself has posted track takeouts and lists, not sure where he gets his up to date info.
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing thread

BenoitPaire2 said:
What do you mean?

I’m talking about the Brisnet ultimate pps that are free everyday
Click to expand...

thats what Im referring to...Im not a subscriber to brisnet but for the cost the product isnt that bad..I also will sometimes buy a TG turf race if i need to fill out a pick x ticket
 
Heim

Heim

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing thread

Something has to be done with this flash betting...R4 Mtnr the #1 goes in the gate at 10/1...wins and odds posted are 5/1....even the track announcer was shocked...I don't care what the algos say re betting strike zone....makes race look fixed.
 
Y

yisman

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing thread

Heim said:
Something has to be done with this flash betting...R4 Mtnr the #1 goes in the gate at 10/1...wins and odds posted are 5/1....even the track announcer was shocked...I don't care what the algos say re betting strike zone....makes race look fixed.
Click to expand...

It happens very regularly at Mountaineer.

Not enough on track money there to offset the ADW money.

I watch a lot of the races there and all the time Peter Berry will be saying "X horse is the favorite at 6/5" when they're loading and horse will change to 3/1 or 7/2 halfway through the race.

Very common for favoritism to switch mid-race.

Most tracks are a joke. Only a handful get enough money at the track to have somewhat reliable numbers.

Presque Isle is one of the worst in that regard. ADW money there dwarfs track $$.
 
Heim

Heim

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing thread

yisman said:
It happens very regularly at Mountaineer.

Not enough on track money there to offset the ADW money.

I watch a lot of the races there and all the time Peter Berry will be saying "X horse is the favorite at 6/5" when they're loading and horse will change to 3/1 or 7/2 halfway through the race.

Very common for favoritism to switch mid-race.

Most tracks are a joke. Only a handful get enough money at the track to have somewhat reliable numbers.

Presque Isle is one of the worst in that regard. ADW money there dwarfs track $$.
Click to expand...

Correct....the funny part is it's usually the winner that has the biggest drop....I don't see too many winners go up in price.
 
WeinketoWarrick

WeinketoWarrick

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing thread

The doubles almost always give away who’s going to plummet in odds...but agree it looks terrible. Mountaineer and Charlestown two of the worst.
 
Y

yisman

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing thread

Presque Isle awful in that regard.

r2

No scratches.

#5 9/2 M/L

goes off 9/5, wins

r7

8 horse field, no scratches.

#7 5/1 M/L

Goes off 3/5, wins.

Late money.
 
Heim

Heim

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing thread

lol at the jockey on #1 R5 Parx. Horse was 1/5 and had 32k of 36k show money....he bounced off a huge effort last out and finished 4th in 5 horse race. Trying to get the horse in the money jockey made a frivolous objection re out of the gate trying to get the place horse below him which I'm sure gave the stewards a chuckle. Denied. Place and show prices huge.
 
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