Indian Grand Prix

LCD

LCD

2
Nico Hulkenberg has been doing relatively well recently and very well in fastest laps. In his recent races, he had the sixth-placed fastest lap in Italy. He had the fastest lap by more than half a second in Singapore. He was 12th in Japan. And then 6th in Korea though only a little more than half a second behind Mark Webber in first.

Fastest laps many times don't go to the fastest car but are affected by tires, track position and end-race strategy.

Earlier in the year, he had the second fastest lap at Monaco which is a pretty good indicator of driver ability.

His team is Force India-Mercedes. He will be competing in the Indian Grand Prix this weekend.

He is +3000 to record the fastest lap during the race.
 
LCD

LCD

2
Re: Indian Grand Prix

One more thing to add is that Vettel won the race with two stops last year. Most top teams will probably mirror this strategy. If the discrepancy between hard and soft tires happens again (it won't be as severe), those teams that choose three stops will have a greater likelihood of recording a fastest lap though not winning the race. Mid-tier teams like Force India would be more likely to adopt a three-stop counter-strategy in what will be one of the fastest races of the year.
 
Optional

Optional

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Indian Grand Prix

Like your thoughts about Hulk. Lotus don't seem to roll the dice on strategy too much, but they could be another that goes for a 3 stopper if tyre wear is severe again this year.

I kind of suspect the surface will be a lot more forgiving after plenty of racing there over the last 12 months though.
 
LCD

LCD

2
Re: Indian Grand Prix

Yeah. There's also the problem that the temperature might drop as the race goes on so that may affect lap times. I think the best thing to happen is for Hulkenberg to not make the top 10 in qualifying. The market still prices fastest laps according to expected finish and I just thought it was odd that having recently recorded a fastest lap the odds on him are so high.

Lotus' problem is that Kimi is Kimi and Grosjean is an idiot sometimes. He's fast but still an idiot. Vettel is a pretty big favorite now.

The weather is going to be sunny and warm for the next four days.
 
LCD

LCD

2
Re: Indian Grand Prix

I thought about what you said about Lotus. They are the top team most likely to do a three-stop strategy for at least one of their drivers. I also threw in Nico Rosberg who had the fastest lap at the Italian Grand Prix which is a similarly fast track. Here's hoping the leaders have to manage their tires.

Fastest Lap Indian Grand Prix

Nico Hulkenberg +3000 .5u
Kimi Raikkonen +1400 .25u
Romain Grosjean +1700 .25u
Nico Rosberg +1700 .25u
 
JAKEPEAVY21

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Indian Grand Prix

Optional said:
Like your thoughts about Hulk. Lotus don't seem to roll the dice on strategy too much, but they could be another that goes for a 3 stopper if tyre wear is severe again this year.

I kind of suspect the surface will be a lot more forgiving after plenty of racing there over the last 12 months though.
Click to expand...

welcome cobber :btj:12io4j2w90
 
Optional

Optional

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Indian Grand Prix

LCD said:
I thought about what you said about Lotus. They are the top team most likely to do a three-stop strategy for at least one of their drivers. I also threw in Nico Rosberg who had the fastest lap at the Italian Grand Prix which is a similarly fast track. Here's hoping the leaders have to manage their tires.

Fastest Lap Indian Grand Prix

Nico Hulkenberg +3000 .5u
Kimi Raikkonen +1400 .25u
Romain Grosjean +1700 .25u
Nico Rosberg +1700 .25u
Click to expand...

Don't like Nico here to do well. Think the second part of the track is going to be too many technical corners for the Merc. The car will still need speed to take fast lap I think. We know Vettel will try and take it if he is in front, and tyres left or not he is always a chance as he showed last race.

Tailling you on Hulk +3000 and Kimi +1400, for a half unit each. Hadn't thought about fastest lap much before you mentioned it. But think you are right this a good track to expect some 3 stoppers. :cheers

JAKEPEAVY21 said:
welcome cobber :btj:12io4j2w90
Click to expand...

G'day mate! :houra
 
Optional

Optional

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Indian Grand Prix

Is there a way to view threads you have posted in that have new posts here?

Or get automatic email notification for replies? I set "auto subscribe" in settings and doesn't seem to do it.
 
LCD

LCD

2
Re: Indian Grand Prix

Optional, I hope it plays out like this. The pit lane is pretty long but the stops are going to be around 21 seconds. The top teams are qualifying with softs, so starting with softs and then probably going hard and then finishing with hard. I think that someone not Vettel, Webber, Alonso, Massa (worried about him fucking up qualifying and with no pressure now blowing this up), Hamilton or Button will make three stops with the last stop on softs which are maybe more than a half second quicker. There is a problem with the softs graining if the temperature drops and not sure how much this will change things. I only like Rosberg because he was quick in Italy and I think he also had the fastest lap in the European Grand Prix. The two different parts of the track are going to favor different cars and drivers.

But if one of these non-title contender guys in relatively fast cars can three stop and put softs on at the end then this might work.

Adding one more.

Senna +3000 .25u

I probably should hedge with the field but whatever. I think it should be one of these guys. There have been sixteen races so far and between the five of them they have seven fastest laps. Kimi has two. I think he's the best bet.

I'll check in after qualifying but it's probably just going to be Vettel at a shitty price.
 
Optional

Optional

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Indian Grand Prix

Yeah, I won't be betting against Vettel to win. Haven't decided if I will back him.


Before this season started I had the plan to back Kimi for fastest lap in every race. I stopped backing him a month or 2 back, mostly because Lotus never seemed to strategize to be on the fast tyres late. (think they used more than others up in prac/quali mostly was the reason)

But he loves them as much as Vettel does...

 
LCD

LCD

2
Re: Indian Grand Prix

Here's the results for the second free practice. All 5 are in the top 10 so let's hope they all fuck up qualifying tomorrow or are super contrary. But at least they have the speed. Hard, hard, soft! Hard, hard, soft!

At this point it's seeming more and more pointless to bet the race but will wait till after qualifying.
 
Optional

Optional

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Indian Grand Prix

I couldn't help myself. Grabbed 2.5u on Vettel +120 before practice started. Looking good that that bet will cover the rest of my plays this week. :)

Nico was faster in both sessions than I expected. That first sector has a bigger impact on lap times than i realized. Alonso was around 2/10ths better in first sector than Red Bulls every time I saw both on track at same time, which could be fuel loads I guess, but get feeling that might be indicative of race pace difference.
 
LCD

LCD

2
Re: Indian Grand Prix

Yeah and Vettel usually never shows his pace in practices. So this could be a slaughter. You made a great bet. Vettel is -150ish now. He's getting pole and I'll only bet after that on Alonso if maybe he goes over +600 but he still has to qualify in the top 4. There won't be rain this weekend. Nothing to do but sit and wait. Let Vettel win the race, let Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull all do two-stoppers and this might work out. Good luck us.
 
Optional

Optional

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Indian Grand Prix

Both Force Indias have installed a brand new engine for this race. As had Vettel. Their last new one for the year.
 
LCD

LCD

2
Re: Indian Grand Prix

Optional, qualifying seems to have worked out. Vettel is now set up. He's surrounded by competence so someone like Kobayashi can't wreck him. There's no way Webber gets to the first corner ahead of him and Alonso who is the biggest threat is on the third row behind him. Your bet is now fucking awesome.

As for the fastest laps, you have the top three teams in the top 6 spots who are all going to two-stop. You have Kimi and Rosberg at the back half of the top ten and then Grosjean, Hulkenberg and Senna in great position just outside the top ten. Hopefully things work out. I'm not even going to watch the race live because fastest laps are too fucking stressful at 5:45 in the morning.

The only question for you is whether to bet Alonso. I think the Ferrari is faster than it appears. I think that Red Bull showed their best and Ferrari didn't in qualifying. In practice Ferrari ran well with a full fuel load. The price on Alonso is crazy so I might put money on him at 14-1ish. Thoughts.
 
allin1

allin1

Banned
Re: Indian Grand Prix

LCD said:
Ty allin. +150ish. That's smarter.
Click to expand...

ferrari can be the masters of strategy most of the times and get something out of lower positions on the grid. yes there might be value on alonso to win but that only with a very small bet as I don't think vettel will lose unless something big happens like an accident or car breaking down.
 
Optional

Optional

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Indian Grand Prix

I'm thinking about Perez +200 or Maldonado +400 for top 6 finish.

Not certain on them, but think the prices are value. Next to stuff like Raikonen -125 and Massa -115 anyway.
 
Optional

Optional

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Indian Grand Prix

LCD said:
The only question for you is whether to bet Alonso. I think the Ferrari is faster than it appears. I think that Red Bull showed their best and Ferrari didn't in qualifying. In practice Ferrari ran well with a full fuel load. The price on Alonso is crazy so I might put money on him at 14-1ish. Thoughts.
Click to expand...

That third practice session before quali really shook my confidence in Ferrari. Well in Alonso's Ferrari with the new upgrades on it. He seemed to have lost that advantage I was imagining he had in the first sector and I read they were having all sorts of trouble getting the tires to work properly.

Maybe I just read the bad bits and am over compensating, but gone off him. Think Button 'might' be best chance to take the third podium spot. Thinking his tire management skills are going to be the difference to get him home ahead of Lewis in 4th or 5th.
 
LCD

LCD

2
Re: Indian Grand Prix

Lewis seems to have his bags packed already and McLaren has done stuff before to favor Button, I can't imagine they wouldn't do it now.

Fuck it. The odds on my five drivers all get worse (better) for fastest lap because they didn't reach Q3 or qualify in the first three rows. It seems so fucking dumb to relate the qualifying result to the expected fastest lap on a track where the tire sequence and stops are probably going to be the same for the top six drivers in the six fastest cars who won't be set up to do the fastest lap.

When Hulkenberg had the fastest lap in Singapore he qualified 11th.
When Senna had the fastest lap in Spa he qualified 17th.
When Rosberg had the fastest lap in Europe he qualified 6th.
When Raikkonen had the fastest lap in Malaysia he qualified 5th.
When Raikkonen and Grosjean went one/two in fastest laps in GB they qualified 6th and 10th.

And taking Italy as the most similar track.

When Rosberg had the fastest lap in Italy he qualified 8th.

He was followed by Perez/Schumacher/Maldonado who qualified 17th/5th/12th.

On this track, with this setup, with these tire choices, with these 5 drivers, with the top 6 drivers from the top 3 teams probably forced to mirror each other, and with the qualifying results, and a hurricane about to hit the East Coast which makes everything seem fucking doomsdayish, I gotta do it. I think there's a 25% chance Vettel gets a fastest lap and a 40% chance one of my five do.

I don't care if I lose. I'm doubling my bets and also adding Perez cause he's fast.

Nico Hulkenberg +3500 .5u
Kimi Raikkonen +1600 .25u
Romain Grosjean +2200 .25u
Nico Rosberg +2000 .25u
Bruno Senna +3000 .25u
Sergio Perez +2500 .25 u

Total units bet 3.25

One time. Schumacher please don't be a dick. Good luck to you guys tomorrow.
 
Optional

Optional

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Indian Grand Prix

Great backup info on the fast lap picks! GL

I've added a little more to Kimi too. Be cheering for your others if Kimi or Hulk aren't in it.


Jenson Button* +120 vs Fernando Alonso 1u

Pastor Maldonado* +105 vs Nico Rosberg 1u

Jean-Eric Vergne* +185 vs Daniel Ricciardo .6u

Top 6 Finish : Pastor Maldonado +300 .4u

Fastest Lap : Kimi Raikkonen +1900 .2u
 
allin1

allin1

Banned
Re: Indian Grand Prix

I hope we have a nice clean and entertaining race. enjoy guys and good luck with your bets
 
Optional

Optional

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Indian Grand Prix

looking like your call about Ferrari being master tacticians is coming home allin1. Looking good against the McLarens in DRS zones
 
allin1

allin1

Banned
Re: Indian Grand Prix

Optional said:
looking like your call about Ferrari being master tacticians is coming home allin1. Looking good against the McLarens in DRS zones
Click to expand...

I was referring to the strategy regarding pit stops. that is where it all happens with them, but now he is already in 3rd so we'll see how it goes. I don't think they were expecting this to be honest.
 
Optional

Optional

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Indian Grand Prix

I meant the tactical gearing for race pace down the straights.

Congrats on your win allin1

Bad luck on the fast lap bets LCD :( Not even the slightest thought of a 3 stopper from anyone. :(

I threw away most of my profit on those head 2 head bets I made late. That all lost :\
 
LCD

LCD

2
Re: Indian Grand Prix

:shoot:

I haven't seen the race but I was hoping that ending on softs might happen. Senna came in second with his time on the final lap with a 1:28:431 but was beaten by Button with a 1:28:203 on the same lap so goodbye 30-1. So obviously fuck you Button (who is my favorite driver). Raikkonen, Hulkenberg, Grosjean and Senna all scored points so uh way to go. :finger004


Nice job with the Vettel bet.
 
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