Interesting New Year For RAS..

Heim

EOG Master
#1
4-1 sides

1-8 totals


Another interesting phenomenon this year, Ed moving sides
in conference east of the Colorado River ...
 
#3
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

4-1 sides

1-8 totals


Another interesting phenomenon this year, Ed moving sides
in conference east of the Colorado River ...
We've been moving lines and beating the close on non west coast sides for quite some time, and 5 and 9 game samples sizes shouldn't be that interesting.
 

Heim

EOG Master
#4
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

We've been moving lines and beating the close on non west coast sides for quite some time, and 5 and 9 game samples sizes shouldn't be that interesting.

You're right nothing interesting or surprising about early conference results.....aside from 2009-2010 your edge in conference (totals) is nothing to write home about.
 
#5
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

aside from 2009-2010 your edge in conference (totals) is nothing to write home about.
Heading into this season, and not counting Jan 2011 when we were limited to TV totals only, we were 321-242 (over 57%) on CBB totals from Jan 1st to end of season since starting our totals service in 2007-08.

That may not be something to write home about to you, but no one making their picks known to the public has done better or even come close under comparable conditions.
 

Heim

EOG Master
#6
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

Heading into this season, and not counting Jan 2011 when we were limited to TV totals only, we were 321-242 (over 57%) on CBB totals from Jan 1st to end of season since starting our totals service in 2007-08.

That may not be something to write home about to you, but no one making their picks known to the public has done better or even come close under comparable conditions.


Come on Ed the market is completely different now......you got buried last year
with the new and improved market (conf) numbers. Not realistic to say 56% five
years ago converts to 56% now.....
 

Heim

EOG Master
#8
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

Heim is both a bulldog and a watchdog.

Not so much that just telling it straight..I believe TCU/USC was 106.5 at Galen
last month....there is no way you'd see a total that (correctly) low 5 years ago
in a non-conference game with teams that know little about each other. Ed has
changed the whole landscape yet he still quotes records from 4-5 years ago
which imo are obsolete. Granted I used a non-conference game as an example
but you get the picture. The lines are way tighter now and tougher to beat in
conf play.
 
#10
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

We've been moving lines and beating the close on non west coast sides for quite some time, and 5 and 9 game samples sizes shouldn't be that interesting.
Edward, have you ever noticed weird shit happening around Christmas in baskets? I mean NBA, College, and overseas too. I keep thinking variance, and then it happens again the next year.
 

Sleepy

EOG Master
#11
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

Not so much that just telling it straight..I believe TCU/USC was 106.5 at Galen last month....there is no way you'd see a total that (correctly) low 5 years ago
in a non-conference game with teams that know little about each other.
Since they started stealing kenpoms numbers the openers are not the candy store they once were.
 
#12
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

Come on Ed the market is completely different now......you got buried last year with the new and improved market (conf) numbers. Not realistic to say 56% five
years ago converts to 56% now.....
You were the one who was referring to previous performance in post #4. I was just correcting your assertion that our CBB totals record after Jan 1st was nothing special, when in fact it is not only very good, but far better than what anyone in public view has produced over the same time period.

Even last year, during our worst season ever, we broke even after all totals became widely available at the end of January, not exactly "getting buried" as you call it.

In the current "new and improved" totals market, we are 77-55, 58.33%, for +16.50 units YTD, and that is after starting 9-16, and going on a 1-8 run the past three days.
 

Heim

EOG Master
#13
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

You're intimating in post #5 that it will be 57% going forward and you know that's
not the case anymore in league play. I went back three years which shows you
at 202-169 (incl 1-8) or 54%. Even 2009-2010 is shaky....because the books really
didn't get smart till last year. So here we are, the books are on an even playing
field and you're charging more money for the 2H when there is less value than
ever.
 
#14
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

The market is obviously tougher, and edges on average start to get smaller as the season progresses, but you have to account for the fact that our team and resources have continued to evolve and improve also.

I did not intimate that we would hit 57% going forward in conference play, I simply was debunking your assertion that we haven't done well on CBB totals after Jan 1st in the past, when in fact we have done very well.

The thing you keep ignoring about last season is that totals on all games were not WA enough (only TV games were) to release on the service until the last few days of January. Yes, the market improved, but this more than anything else is what made things tougher last year. On a card like tonight you would have 5 totals to choose from, instead of 48. That is a huge difference.

We went 77-71 in Feb & March last year (after all totals were WA), and 108-65, 88-77, 48-29 after Jan 1st the three seasons before that. That is how I got the 321-242 (over 57%) number.

This year totals on all games have been WA from day one, and we are hitting 58.33% on them, which is above our 3 year win rate on totals coming into the season.

No one can accurately predict their edge going forward to a tee, but I am confident that our edge is still significant on CBB totals, even in the current market, and in conference play.

We also are not charging "more money for the 2H", we haven't even offered a service beyond Jan 15th, and if we do, it will be for significantly less money than the first half of the season.
 
#15
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

The market is obviously tougher, and edges on average start to get smaller as the season progresses, but you have to account for the fact that our team and resources have continued to evolve and improve also.

I did not intimate that we would hit 57% going forward in conference play, I simply was debunking your assertion that we haven't done well on CBB totals after Jan 1st in the past, when in fact we have done very well.

The thing you keep ignoring about last season is that totals on all games were not WA enough (only TV games were) to release on the service until the last few days of January. Yes, the market improved, but this more than anything else is what made things tougher last year. On a card like tonight you would have 5 totals to choose from, instead of 48. That is a huge difference.

We went 77-71 in Feb & March last year (after all totals were WA), and 108-65, 88-77, 48-29 after Jan 1st the three seasons before that. That is how I got the 321-242 (over 57%) number.

This year totals on all games have been WA from day one, and we are hitting 58.33% on them, which is above our 3 year win rate on totals coming into the season.

No one can accurately predict their edge going forward to a tee, but I am confident that our edge is still significant on CBB totals, even in the current market, and in conference play.

We also are not charging "more money for the 2H", we haven't even offered a service beyond Jan 15th, and if we do, it will be for significantly less money than the first half of the season.
there is still always a winner and a loser in just about every game. The actual 'push' expectancy in major sports is less than half a percent. So the ability to pick the right side is paramount. Assuming youre only betting one way action.

Toughness of 'market' and all that nonsense is just that, nonsense. If you can pick a winner it doesnt matter what the market is like. Until you see 20-30% of the game landing within a point or so of a line then it doesnt matter what the so called market is, and even then there is still a winner. Obviously margin for error is greatly reduced but if there is actual skill and not just luck involved then those pitfalls will be avoided more often than not.

If you like a team -5 and the line moves to -8 and that team loses by 13 straight up you were WRONG, regardless of the market or the fact you 'beat' the closing number. So just because you like another team -7, line moves to -10 and they win by 8 doesnt make you RIGHT, it just means the results were a better outcome for you. You could have just as easily given out +10 and 'beat' the number by 2 points instead of one point by getting -7. So were you more right at +10 versus -7? No just lucky the game panned out the way it did either way.

Thats why I always laugh at guys who make claims. Some may sound plausible but theyre using back tracked data and results to try and prove something that cant be proven that way. Seriously if people were really THAT good at sports betting and playing the so called 'market' they would clean house, especially in sports where the lines are so volatile. I havent run it yet but I was going to see how many times in the past few years NCAA hoops totals had a middle opportunity in them. If it is 15% or so then the so called market watchers are clearly not as smart or efficient as they think they are, especially if they arent capitalizing on those opportunities. Also considering if theyre making plays on games that close tot he line to make them a loser with a bad number in thr first place shows they are picking games they might not want to mess with. Even if 15% are able to be middled that leaves 85% that are more than likely not even going to be close to the spread. But in reality even in a sport like NCAA hopps and the way totals move I would say 3-4% of them are probably valid middles that actually come in. So that means that over 95% of them have a clear cut winning side regardless of the line.
 
#16
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

Toughness of 'market' and all that nonsense is just that, nonsense. If you can pick a winner it doesnt matter what the market is like.
That is like saying it doesn't matter what the line is on a game when you bet it. Obviously wrong.

If openers are better, and more people firing into the market know what they are doing, then by the time full limits become available, it is clearly tougher to win.
 
#17
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

Wantitall4moi at SBR in September, predicting RAS results for upcoming CBB season:

wantitall4moi said:
in basketball I would say if he makes any money it would be a good year. But more than likely probably down 10 units.
Wrong again.
 
#18
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

That is like saying it doesn't matter what the line is on a game when you bet it. Obviously wrong.

If openers are better, and more people firing into the market know what they are doing, then by the time full limits become available, it is clearly tougher to win.
In most cases it doesnt matter, that is what you guys (not touts but guys that think they have it figured out) dont understand. Youre too bust trying to sound like you know what youre talking abou and making up new terms to convince people you have a lcue that you dont realize that 95% of the time (more than that if you really are good) a pointspread line is absolutely meaningless.

The only time a line matters is if it is odds based where you take -135 as opposed to -130 or +115 versus +113. But since you dont bet odds and only spread it is a moot point for you.

As for your second quote are you done betting NCAA now?
 
#19
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

That is like saying it doesn't matter what the line is on a game when you bet it. Obviously wrong.

If openers are better, and more people firing into the market know what they are doing, then by the time full limits become available, it is clearly tougher to win.

Ha Ha ... You're funny

The only thing that does matter is "What the line is on a game WHEN you bet it."

What happens after that OR before that means NOTHING.

Openers, closers, middle of the day WA lines. Don't matter .... You still have to beat the number that you bet ... WHEN you bet it.

wantitall4moi is right in that if you could beat sports betting by following this so-called market there would be a lot of rich Bettors because there's way too many Bettors who think it's a valid handicapping tool. It is only a tool for FOLLOWING and nothing else.

:pop:
 
#20
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

I wasn't referring to using the market as a tool for handicapping/betting at all.

I am simply stating that it is clearly possible (if not likely) for any market to be tougher to beat now than it was in the past. There is nothing nonsensical about it. It is an obvious fact and very basic concept.

"What the market is like" determines what kind of number and/or limit you are going to get on a game, essentially defining your edge and +EV. It very much matters.
 

kickitGOOD

EOG Enthusiast
#21
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

Not so much that just telling it straight..I believe TCU/USC was 106.5 at Galen
last month....there is no way you'd see a total that (correctly) low 5 years ago
in a non-conference game with teams that know little about each other. Ed has
changed the whole landscape yet he still quotes records from 4-5 years ago
which imo are obsolete. Granted I used a non-conference game as an example
but you get the picture. The lines are way tighter now and tougher to beat in
conf play.
I prefer Dr. Bob citing his 20 years records IMO
 
#22
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

I wasn't referring to using the market as a tool for handicapping/betting at all.

I am simply stating that it is clearly possible (if not likely) for any market to be tougher to beat now than it was in the past. There is nothing nonsensical about it. It is an obvious fact and very basic concept.

"What the market is like" determines what kind of number and/or limit you are going to get on a game, essentially defining your edge and +EV. It very much matters.

I think the math (results) say it is no different today then 20 years ago.

If you want to talk about small college basketball totals ... they didn't even use them 20 years ago so there's no stats to back that claim.

The only reason you beat these small college totals was the books didn't put the time into them. Now that people are betting them they have to put in the time and post better numbers (lines). No surprise there!

That is a product of the books using lines that were not that good. And of course they saw that and reacted.

That has nothing to do with a market.
 
#23
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

The sharp Bettors have made the Bookmakers and Linesmakers sharper since the day the first Bookmaker took the first bet from the Bettors.

Bookmakers have always reacted to the Bettors.

Not the other way around.
 

Herbie

EOG Addicted
#24
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

Heading into this season, and not counting Jan 2011 when we were limited to TV totals only, we were 321-242 (over 57%) on CBB totals from Jan 1st to end of season since starting our totals service in 2007-08.

That may not be something to write home about to you, but no one making their picks known to the public has done better or even come close under comparable conditions.
While I respect what RAS does (and, IMO, they do I much more honest job of keeping records versus the rest of their peers) I guess I don't understand why these would not be included...

Seems like you are casting out data that is bad for you unless you saying you wouldn't have made these if you were giving a full board of chooses (which would seem rather disingenuous to the people who paid for these picks thinking they were getting standard plays when what they were getting would basically amount to filler because of the lack of options)...
 
#25
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

We also are not charging "more money for the 2H", we haven't even offered a service beyond Jan 15th, and if we do, it will be for significantly less money than the first half of the season.
But I thought the season was 20 weeks long, so 6 weeks in Nov-early Jan is only a small part of a CBB season. Which is it?
 
#26
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

The whole market mentality and trying to make it sound legit is just the wrong way to go. Youre buying a number at a specific point in time, that is all, if it moves in your favor is meaningless, if it moves against you it is meaningless. Only way it would matter is if you were also trying to buy the move. So if you buy a total at O 140 and it moves to 145, that doesnt mean shit, either in expectation or results. Hell you and your 'clients' could have moved it 3 points on your own action. And the other 2 points could be attributed to ther followers and cling ons.

We had this debate before where I said you differed for the simple fact that your opinions generally were in games where the lines did move, either because of you or for some other reason. Doesnt matter. What matters is that if youre playing one side of the game how the results were at that one point in time versus your play. Which like I said in 95% of the game it wont matter. But because touts, guys posting plays for recognition, or plays in general are under so much scrutiny that 5% becomes a big deal especially when it is a short term view by most people into results. Also unless youre betting the board you wont feel the full 5% either, usually less than .5% like I said, especially if youre line shopping, so therefore eventually the line becomes irrelevant if you are trying to make a claim of ability.

It is a self fulfilling closed system. Cause and effect. You can only get a "best' of an available line, sometimes it isnt enough there fore that side was clearly wrong regardless of the line, and the other side was clearly right because it won no matter how the so called market moved. Now obviously there are fluke games and bad luck, bad calls, or out right fixes but that is the true margin of error gamblers have to contend with. and why over the long haul you have to hope those even out.
 
#27
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

While I respect what RAS does (and, IMO, they do I much more honest job of keeping records versus the rest of their peers) I guess I don't understand why these would not be included...

Seems like you are casting out data that is bad for you unless you saying you wouldn't have made these if you were giving a full board of chooses (which would seem rather disingenuous to the people who paid for these picks thinking they were getting standard plays when what they were getting would basically amount to filler because of the lack of options)...
I didn't see that

So he is crying because the Books only used TV games for college basketball totals and he couldn't beat them?

But when they put up all the college basketball totals (and bad lines) he took advantage of this and now that the books and the linesmakers put more time into making these totals he isn't winning like before and wants to pull the old "The market got tougher" crap.

No the market didn't get tougher. The Linesmakers and books adjusted and made better numbers (lines) like they should.

The obvious conclusion to this is that your EASY/WEAK market on these small college basketball totals (and football I'm sure) is over. Completely OVER.

:pop:
 
#28
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

Heading into this season, and not counting Jan 2011 when we were limited to TV totals only, we were 321-242 (over 57%) on CBB totals from Jan 1st to end of season since starting our totals service in 2007-08.

That may not be something to write home about to you, but no one making their picks known to the public has done better or even come close under comparable conditions.
Ed- I like you but you can't throw out a month. If you won, it would have been counted.
 
#29
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

Of course that month counts, and is permanently recorded in our archives, but for the purpose of predicting future results, it wouldn't be wise to include a subset that had entirely different conditions than what we have currently. That was the point I was making.

Even including that month, we're 346-277 (55.6%) after Jan 1st since starting the totals service, with most of the volume coming in the last two seasons.
 
#30
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

Of course that month counts, and is permanently recorded in our archives, but for the purpose of predicting future results, it wouldn't be wise to include a subset that had entirely different conditions than what we have currently. That was the point I was making.

Even including that month, we're 346-277 (55.6%) after Jan 1st since starting the totals service, with most of the volume coming in the last two seasons.
Using the weak small conference totals.

And they are not weak anymore.

That is the change
 
#31
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

now that the books and the linesmakers put more time into making these totals he isn't winning like before and wants to pull the old "The market got tougher" crap.

No the market didn't get tougher. The Linesmakers and books adjusted and made better numbers (lines) like they should.

The obvious conclusion to this is that your EASY/WEAK market on these small college basketball totals (and football I'm sure) is over. Completely OVER.
Did you even read the thread or know anything about RAS?

The Heim is the one making the arguement that the market is tougher, not me, even though I and many others agree.

We're having our best CBB season ever overall, including 77-55 (+16.50 units, 58.33%) on totals, which is higher than our 3 year average coming into the season. No need to make any excuses.

I don't know why you brought up CFB totals, but we're 74-40 (64.9%) on them over the past 3 years. Any indication as to why our edge in that market would suddenly disappear?
 
#32
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

Using the weak small conference totals.

And they are not weak anymore.

That is the change
I guess we'll just have to see about that.

Predictions of our demise come on a regular basis. After last year, it was "RAS won't win at CBB anymore", and we are currently having our best season ever. A few years ago, it was "RAS doesn't win on CBB sides", and we are now well over 55% on our last 600 CBB side releases. After 2009 it was "RAS can't beat the WNBA anymore", and we have gone 79-58 (57.6%) since. Before that it was "RAS doesn't beat college football", and we have won at over 63% in CFB the past three seasons. It truly never ends. I don't understand why people have such a hard time just giving credit when it is due.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#33
Re: Interesting New Year For RAS..

Ed, I'm a former satisfied customer who simply got priced out of the action. No complaints, you make what you can. IMO, you guys are honest, good, and fair to your customers. Only the taint of toutdom compels people to take shots. Again, just my .02, I know the others in this thread don't agree.
 
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