International data signals brighter days ahead as COVID-19 vaccinations pick up speed at home

"Why Canada could soon turn the corner in the pandemic — even if it doesn't feel like it yet

International data signals brighter days ahead as COVID-19 vaccinations pick up speed at home


Vaccines are now rolling out across Canada at a rapid pace as supply has finally begun to catch up with demand. While we're still far from returning to normal life, Canadians are more and more protected from the worst of COVID-19 with each passing day.

Early research from countries that are further ahead in their vaccine rollout has been overwhelmingly positive, suggesting protection from even a single dose is robust and the growing number of shots in arms signals a much brighter future for Canada.

But while we're not quite where we need to be yet and we still need to remain vigilant, experts say things haven't looked this good for quite some time as we head toward what many hope is the final stretch of the pandemic in this country.

"From this point on, things are going to get better every single day," said Raywat Deonandan, a global health epidemiologist and an associate professor at the University of Ottawa. "Vaccination works."

...

Even a cursory look around the globe gives a glimpse of why there is reason for optimism here at home.

With more than 50 per cent of the population fully vaccinated, Israel reported slightly more than 200 COVID-19 cases and five deaths during the past week — down from a record high of more than 60,000 cases and 400 deaths in one devastating week in mid-January.

The United Kingdom saw its COVID-19 hospitalizations drop below 1,000 for the first time in months, down from a high of more than 4,000 in January, and daily deaths fell to single digits as the strategy of delaying second doses — similar to Canada's approach — continues to pay off.

And while the U.S. has yet to partially vaccinate half of its population, it recorded its single lowest COVID-19 case rate in more than eight months on Sunday and its seven-day average of daily deaths fell to its lowest level since October.

Canada doesn't have as much vaccination coverage, but we're catching up.

Close to 50 per cent of eligible Canadians have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine to date, and we're already starting to see the results

...


There are fewer than 4,000 people in hospital for the first time since mid-April, which accounts for an eight per cent drop from the previous week. ICU admissions are also down five per cent week over week, sitting at just under 1,400.

In Canada's largest province, recent data from Public Health Ontario showed COVID-19 vaccines have been very effective against infection and hospitalization.

Of the 3.5 million Ontarians partially or fully vaccinated as of April 17, just 2,223 became infected — a breakthrough infection rate of just 0.06 per cent — with about two-thirds of cases occurring within 14 days of a first dose, when antibodies have yet to fully build up.

"Where I'm working, there's a lot more hope and optimism in the staff, knowing that people are getting vaccinated," said Dr. Zain Chagla, an infectious diseases physician at St. Joseph's Healthcare Hamilton and an associate professor at McMaster University.

"There's an end in sight to all of this and I think that's the one thing that is really sparking a lot of optimism in health care."
 
'High level' of COVID-19 could jeopardize progress
We're also learning more about the protection that one dose offers, even when second doses are delayed, as new research on immunogenicity and effectiveness rapidly emerges.

A new study from the U.K. found the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine generated antibody responses 3½ times larger in older people when a second dose was delayed to three months after the first.

A recent study in The Lancet looked at more than 23,000 vaccinated health-care workers in the U.K. from December to February and found the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was at least 70 per cent effective at preventing COVID-19 three weeks after the first dose.

And another Lancet study looked at more than 1.3 million people in Scotland during the same time period and found the Pfizer shot was more than 90 per cent effective at preventing hospitalization due to COVID-19 four to five weeks after the initial dose.

That study also analyzed the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine in the same population and found it was 88 per cent effective at curbing hospital admissions from COVID-19 after one shot.

But while the vaccines are doing an incredible job at preventing severe illness and death, the number of daily infections across Canada remains high and threatens to jeopardize the progress we've made.

...


"Your risk of developing severe disease is reduced drastically after two doses and even after one, which is something to be very optimistic and celebrate about," said Prof. Alyson Kelvin, an assistant professor at Dalhousie University and virologist at the Canadian Center for Vaccinology and the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization in Saskatoon.

"But what we need to keep in mind is that there's still quite a high level of virus transmission within the community."

Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada's chief public health officer, warned Canadians on May 8 that even two doses of vaccine don't offer full protection from COVID-19.

"It's not absolute," Tam said during a virtual town hall in the Yukon. "There's reduction in your risk of transmission, but it doesn't necessarily eliminate your risk of transmission."

Deonandan says that's akin to taking a "glass half empty approach" to the situation, given the positive impact vaccines are already having on our health-care system and in other countries around the world.

'One-dose summer'
Tam had a more positive outlook on Friday, saying Canadians who have received one dose can socialize with close family and friends outdoors over the summer months.

"Vaccines will be a major help in keeping your rates low and point toward a future that includes some of these activities that we've longed for without a resurgence happening," Tam said.

"Individuals with one dose should feel more confident that they're better protected, but you've got to get that second dose for maximal protection."

...


Tam said a more social summer will depend on most Canadians staying apart for the rest of the spring, because the case count is still too high and vaccination coverage too low to do away with public health measures right now — even for partially vaccinated people.

That guidance came a day after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced fully vaccinated Americans could stop wearing masks inside in most places.

While the concept of drastically loosening public health restrictions still seems far off in Canada, there is hope for a gradual return to some normalcy this summer.

...


"We can have a better summer," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday. "A one-dose summer."

Trudeau said once 75 per cent of the adult population has had at least one vaccine dose, provinces and territories can begin to lift public health restrictions — but until then, Canadians should remain vigilant to avoid sparking a fourth wave.

"It's not going to be the summer of us being back to the way we were in January of 2020, but it's going to be the summer of us looking forward to things being normal," Chagla said.

"To at least do some low-risk outdoor stuff together, to visit each other, to be able to engage with each other, being careful, but at least being able to do more than we've done in the past."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/canada-pandemic-turning-point-covid-19-1.6027497
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
Do you guys want the astra zeneca vaccine that we have but wont use? Assuming you do why doesn't biden send it?
 
Do you guys want the astra zeneca vaccine that we have but wont use? Assuming you do why doesn't biden send it?

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...ada-could-administer-3-1m-phac-head-1.5398292

"About 85 per cent of Canadians say they would be comfortable taking the Pfizer vaccine, 71 per cent for Moderna, 47 per cent for Johnson and Johnson and 40 per cent for Astra Zeneca."

https://www.660citynews.com/2021/05...illing-to-get-covid-vaccine-abacus-data-poll/
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...ada-could-administer-3-1m-phac-head-1.5398292

"About 85 per cent of Canadians say they would be comfortable taking the Pfizer vaccine, 71 per cent for Moderna, 47 per cent for Johnson and Johnson and 40 per cent for Astra Zeneca."

https://www.660citynews.com/2021/05...illing-to-get-covid-vaccine-abacus-data-poll/
all I know is we have tens of millions of doses we dont need, if you guys want it you should request it, begging would be even better.
 
all I know is we have tens of millions of doses we dont need, if you guys want it you should request it, begging would be even better.

"While it might seem simple to box up the spares and send them out, the reality is far more complex. There is no stockpile of tens of millions of Moderna doses in a warehouse, ready to go. Most unused U.S. doses are scattered across tens of thousands of locations: state facilities, local pharmacies, vaccination sites and other locations. Gathering and sending them out of the country would be unmanageable, and undercut the U.S. domestic effort.

"Pfizer is already sending some shots manufactured in the U.S. overseas. And there may be millions more unused doses from Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca Plc available to send out in the coming weeks or months; the exact date is unknown. "

But with the Biden administration rolling back pandemic guidelines on masking, in part to get vaccine fence-sitters to roll up their sleeves, there’s little indication the U.S. strategy of ensuring more-than-ample supply at home will change any time soon.

“When you’re winning, you press harder," Andy Slavitt, the senior adviser to the White House’s Covid Response Team, told reporters this week. The U.S. goal continues to be vaccination of 70% of adults before July 4, he said.

The two-dose mRNA vaccines have shown the highest efficacy rates of those cleared for use around the globe. They are also the most challenging to store and ship, and have been bought up primarily by wealthier countries. They’ve become the vaccines of choice for Americans, because of their availability and their perceived superiority.

Pfizer’s shots have also been cleared for people ages 12 to 15, making them critical to the domestic effort to vaccinate teens. It may soon be authorized for even younger children, who are at relatively low risk from Covid, reducing what’s available for more defenseless populations abroad.

“If we were truly interested in taking an ethical approach to vaccination, we would have vaccinated the most vulnerable people wherever they live, but that's not the political reality," said Richard Besser, a pediatrician and former acting director for the CDC. “Each country is focused on protecting its own," and that means turning to American children first, said Besser, who’s now CEO of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

To understand how many extra shots the U.S. actually has, it’s necessary to understand how its vaccine supply chain actually works.

Moderna’s shipments are overseen by the federal government. When the company finishes making doses, it gives possession to distributor McKesson Corp., which stores them and sends them on to vaccination sites.

As of April 12, Moderna had handed over 117 million doses. It’s producing 40 million to 50 million doses a month, which means that as of this week, it’s delivered about 157 million to 167 million. About 140 million of those doses have already been shipped out to vaccine locations and states, according to the CDC.

If another 10 million are on order or in transit — about what ships each week — that leaves just 7 million to 17 million doses that haven't been sent around the country already to vaccine sites. The government contract with Moderna also says that the government may not use or authorize use of its vaccine order “unless such use occurs in the United States and is protected from liability under a declaration issued under the Public Readiness and Emergency.’’ Biden would have to strike a deal with Moderna or find a way around that clause to share his doses.

....Unfortunately, even if unused U.S. inoculations were sent abroad, they would likely make barely a dent in the need. The globe needs billions of vaccines, not millions, and the places that are in crisis now may burn through their outbreaks before help could arrive.

“The donation piece is in many ways a stopgap," said Mitchell Warren, executive director of AVAC: Global Advocacy for HIV Prevention, who also signed onto the letter urging the sharing of Moderna doses. “This would be an initial supply to get emergency relief underway. It’s barely a Band-Aid, but as we understand it, it’s product that’s available and it could be deployed for good."

The next several weeks will be telling in terms of U.S. needs — and what could be available for export. Many states have freshened their campaigns with incentives like cash lotteries for people who haven’t yet gotten shots. Colorado has requested the maximum number of doses every week, according to the state health department. Its pace of vaccinations has remained relatively steady at about 50,000 doses a day, according to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker.

Other states are paring down. After peaking at almost 600,000 doses at its peak in April, Illinois’ most recent request was just 8,510, according to the state. It’s also sending unused doses to areas where local demand is higher.

The Biden administration has said that over the next months it will send out approximately 60 million AstraZeneca doses that haven’t been cleared for U.S. use. There are also tens of millions of J&J vaccines that may become available, likely as the American campaign winds down.

Those are the vaccines the U.S. doesn’t need or want. But they are likely what it will give.

https://www.livemint.com/news/india...-vaccine-doses-with-india-11621139498796.html

The AZ vaccines have to be cleared by the US for quality before they are exported.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
So far 340 million doses have been shipped to states(270 million used), so as of now enough have been shipped to finish the job if none were shipped from now on.

So there's at least 40 million AZ, prob 15-20 J & J, and who knows how many of the pfizer and moderna? it seems like we could send canada at least 30 million and you guys would have enough for everyone(J & J would be one doser), then we can send india the rest.

Obviously we should keep some for ourselves but right now we have plenty. For Biden not to do it when some countries are still surging is just plane wrong IMO.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
At least my my neck of the woods vaccine demand is dead(for new people) Iowa was offered 65K and took 12, Wisconsin was offered 125K + and took like 25, the dakotas are doing about 10K /week each, less than 2K new people.

Sure there will be a bump with the kids but their uptake will be less than their parents , i'd say if 30% of teens get the shot that's a surprise.

As of now 60% of americans 16+ have got a jab - that's pretty good and is unlikely to go much above 70, we're about 85% of the way to finishing, we need no more vaccine.
 
Canada seems ATM to have little interest in the AZ vaccine. It may be those who got a first dose of it will get a different vaccine for their 2nd shot:

"...several provinces suspend the first dose of AstraZeneca, and questions remain about whether a second shot will be green-lighted..."

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...ssing-around-is-going-to-cost-lives-1.5428725

Many people would prefer to wait for another vaccine rather than take AZ. Tons of various vaccines are coming into Canada recently & in the near vaccine, so it's expected we will have an abundant supply soon even without any more AZ.
 
But most importantly, mask compliance never changed. Cases went up 2966% 2/22-5/10, then turned down, and compliance never moved. Masks just don’t matter.

What a foolish statement. That's not scientific evidence or a controlled scientific study. Scientific evidence supports the use of masks & them saving lives:

"Still Confused About Masks? Here’s the Science Behind How Face Masks Prevent Coronavirus":

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/4...s-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

Even common sense tells you visible droplets (saliva, snot etc) can be seen sometimes coming out of people's mouths or nose when their talking, sneezing, singing, coughing, etc, close to others. I've felt it hit my face. With a mask on it blocks all that shit full of covid19 germs. So wearing a mask is like wearing a condom.

Masks also block all kinds of invisible (to the naked eye) droplets containing virus.
 
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