Is there value in these extended lines?

Just throwing this one out there for debate and I don't really have the tools to do the research on hand, but take a game like UCF/UConn as an example. UCF -29.5 or so out there, but if I lay -34.5 on DK just to name one, I get +175. At this point of the season where bad teams figure to have given up, what's the real chance this number lands between 30 and 34? Isn't getting +175 on such a big number a +EV bet? I'm sure you could find 3-5 games a weekend in November with similar situations. Same for all the SEC cupcake games in November. If a team is going to be motivated enough to cover, is laying a few extra points and getting the bonus odds +EV?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
EOG contributor TonyMar employs that strategy in EOG's Best Bet thread.

TonyMar 182-203-6 +32.99 UNITS
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I like the idea of laying more points and grabbing the bonus price, if you have a strong opinion on the game.

The house seems to shade the more conventional way most parlay players think, that is to lay fewer points and pay a higher price (Price, be damned!).

The extra vig is hiding in plain sight but recreational bettors ignore it and still play.

In sum, I believe alternate lines are a sucker's bet for the uninitiated.
 
I agree it makes no sense in the NFL or for games that are under double digits. This is more a situational feel, I generally like to bet NCAA favorites in November, especially those not in a rivalry game. To me in a game like the one I mentioned it seems like giving an extra 5 points to go from -110 to +175 is a no brainer for value. If UCF doesn't show up or U Conn actually plays like they care, well the bet is going to lose anyways on the -29.5. But if it is a game where its just a big blowout those 5 points seem to have little value to me. I looked at what Bet105 has for the same numbers and its a huge difference, they are offering UCF -34.5 +144 so in this particular situation I think there has to be some value in the +175.

I have long used offshore sites to get a sense of what these extra points are worth. I think these sites have done their homework and have a good backing on the true value of these, the US sites are doing just whatever on them and probably if you beat them on them a lot they just limit you.
 
Do almost all games have this alternate spread?
Once you get to Thursday or Friday some books offer them on almost every game although they back off once it gets to 35 or so points. Like I was looking for a number on the Ole Miss game but no one offered the extended lines. Main ones I check are DK, Barstool/Rivers/TwinSpires (all same lines here), Fan Duel and Caesars. Others offer more limited extended numbers on NCAA games. I bet 3 of them this week and went 2-1, so good payday with the + odds. If you go 1-2 you generally should be close to break even.
 
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