jimmythegreek
The opening odds start here
I’ll be in Atlantic City all of Thursday and Friday at the poker tables perhaps taking in some tournaments as well as cash games. So I wanted to get this one out early with a second play shortly to follow.
(20)Oregon -41.5 over San Jose St:
Okay, so let the naysayers and doubters come out and voice their usual displeasure once again after I seemed to move the earth a few centimeters last week selecting an underdog, which by the way, crept through the back door as a winner in the final minute. Hey, who says there’s anything wrong with being lucky? Anyway, back to reality, and in week 3 the 20th ranked Ducks (2-0) play host to woeful San Jose St (0-2) from Autzen Stadium. Last week, Oregon made easy and quick work of FCS Portland St 62-14 behind 250 yards and 4 TD passes by Justin Herbert as well as 3 more scores on the ground from Tony Brooks-James. James gained 108 yards in all on 22 carries (4.9) , all of the scoring carries coming in the second half with the game well in hand. CJ Verdell (11-106 9.6 1 TD) and Travis Dye (4-58 14.5 1 TD) also stampeded into the end zone leading a rushing attack that piled on 297 yards adding to Oregon’s 256 through the air for a total of 553. Kano Dillon (3-41 1 TD), Jaylon Redd (3-36 1 TD), Tabari Hines (3-32 1 TD), and Johnny Johnson III (2-24 1 TD) were the worthy recipients of Herbert’s scores. The Vikings were held to just 225 total yards although Jalano Eason (7/14 111 2 TD) was somewhat effective when he was able to find his receivers. Portland St managed just 67 yards rushing and their defense allowed at least 2 Oregon TD’s every quarter.
Meanwhile, the Spartans were blanked by Washington St 31-0 last week at Martin Stadium, as Gardner Minshew (34/51 414 3 TD 2 INT) led the high powered Cougars aerial attack. Davontavean Martin (6-68 2 TD) caught scoring passes of 15 and 36 yards in the first quarter which was all WSU needed. Minshew also hooked up with James Williams (4-34 1 TD) for the lone TD of the second half. The Cougs also forced 4 turnovers and outgained SJSU 544-109 as Montel Aaron was just 13/25 for 94 yards while sacked 7 times. The Spartans were just 2-11 last season and things don’t get any easier especially since SJSU couldn’t even beat FCS Cal Davis in their opener while allowing an average of 38 points through their first 2 losses.
Herbert (30/47 531 9 TD 2 INT) is off to a solid start although showcasing his consistency and versatility against back to back cupcakes on the schedule thus far. Now’s a good time as any to pad his stats which will give the junior plenty more confidence when heading into conference play. Of course it helps when you play for a PAC 12 powerhouse that has put up an average of 60 points per game. Redd (5-117 3 TD) is the Ducks’ top target labeled as a big play receiver getting behind opposing secondaries for big yardage on deep balls thrown. Johnson III (3-64 2 TD) is quick to the corners and over the middle and should see more action against an overmatched Spartans defense. Oregon loves to play up tempo and most of the time either go no huddle or spread their formation early in the play clock. Verdell (24-157 6.5 1 TD) and Brooks-James (26-134 5.2 2 TD) should once again shoulder most of the workload while Travis Dye (11-95 8.6 1 TD) completes the three headed monster. Despite SJSU winning the turnover battle 3-1 against Washington St head coach Brett Brennan knows his team is going to have its hands full. Jesse Osuna and Kyle Harmon are positive presences on the field and did record turnovers in an encouraging second half performance on the defensive side of the ball. Dakari Monroe and John Toussaint are going to have to play coverage man to man in order to stop Oregon’s utilization of the open field.
It appears to be another long year in the doldrums of the MWC for San Jose St, who faces some tough similar challenges ahead as a young program looking to string together a couple of wins amped up by a solid performance. Montel (26/44 348 2 TD) hasn’t looked bad, but this is a conservative offense that doesn’t have the ability to go toe to toe against opposing high powered offenses like Oregon. Bailey Gather (8-140 2 TD) is a legitimate threat when the Spartans offense is clicking, and San Jose State tight end Josh Oliver (13-137) is among the best in the nation and a player who should play at the next level. Standing 6-foot-5, 250 pounds, he’s a proven pass catcher who can run fairly deep routes over the middle as well as underneath to the sidelines. The weakness is a lot more glaring in the ground game, where San Jose St is averaging just 75 yards per contest, led by Tyler Nevens (18-79 4.4 2 TD) who has both rushing scores this season but suffered a head injury and did not play vs. WSU. If there’s a bright side, Bryce Crawford is one of the top kickers in the Mountain West, and he is one of the front runners to win all-conference honors at the end of the year. He has hit 30 of his 35 field goal attempts over the last two seasons, and that kind of consistency is something Brennan can lean on. As a unit, Oregon’s defense has seen a substantial amount of growth from last year to this year. The Ducks currently rank 39th in the nation in total defense and 21st in yards per play, proving how they’ve become more consistent. Jim Leavitt has this unit well prepared, and despite some window washing TD’s late yielded in games already decided look ready to do battle with the best in the conference soon forthcoming. The return of Jalen Jenks Jr. for his senior season has paid dividends especially since he passed up a chance at the NFL and holds second team PAC 12 honors. Justin Hollins is the most experienced back on the squad and Thomas Graham Jr. is an intimidating presence on the outside to opposing QB’s and receivers.
I’m not expecting another shutout, but Oregon will control pace and tempo of this game early looking to put up points once again at a breakneck pace. It took awhile to materialize, but like Ohio St in week one against an undermanned and oversized Oregon St bunch, the Ducks will punish the Spartans with a flurry of running and passing plays as well as a little digging from Mario Cristobal’s crystal ball playbook. The Ducks hang 70 in this one before calling off the dogs. Don’t let the large number scare you, because it only inspires me more the more I base this mismatch.
I’ll have a second play up later for week 3 of Saturday.
(20)Oregon -41.5 over San Jose St:
Okay, so let the naysayers and doubters come out and voice their usual displeasure once again after I seemed to move the earth a few centimeters last week selecting an underdog, which by the way, crept through the back door as a winner in the final minute. Hey, who says there’s anything wrong with being lucky? Anyway, back to reality, and in week 3 the 20th ranked Ducks (2-0) play host to woeful San Jose St (0-2) from Autzen Stadium. Last week, Oregon made easy and quick work of FCS Portland St 62-14 behind 250 yards and 4 TD passes by Justin Herbert as well as 3 more scores on the ground from Tony Brooks-James. James gained 108 yards in all on 22 carries (4.9) , all of the scoring carries coming in the second half with the game well in hand. CJ Verdell (11-106 9.6 1 TD) and Travis Dye (4-58 14.5 1 TD) also stampeded into the end zone leading a rushing attack that piled on 297 yards adding to Oregon’s 256 through the air for a total of 553. Kano Dillon (3-41 1 TD), Jaylon Redd (3-36 1 TD), Tabari Hines (3-32 1 TD), and Johnny Johnson III (2-24 1 TD) were the worthy recipients of Herbert’s scores. The Vikings were held to just 225 total yards although Jalano Eason (7/14 111 2 TD) was somewhat effective when he was able to find his receivers. Portland St managed just 67 yards rushing and their defense allowed at least 2 Oregon TD’s every quarter.
Meanwhile, the Spartans were blanked by Washington St 31-0 last week at Martin Stadium, as Gardner Minshew (34/51 414 3 TD 2 INT) led the high powered Cougars aerial attack. Davontavean Martin (6-68 2 TD) caught scoring passes of 15 and 36 yards in the first quarter which was all WSU needed. Minshew also hooked up with James Williams (4-34 1 TD) for the lone TD of the second half. The Cougs also forced 4 turnovers and outgained SJSU 544-109 as Montel Aaron was just 13/25 for 94 yards while sacked 7 times. The Spartans were just 2-11 last season and things don’t get any easier especially since SJSU couldn’t even beat FCS Cal Davis in their opener while allowing an average of 38 points through their first 2 losses.
Herbert (30/47 531 9 TD 2 INT) is off to a solid start although showcasing his consistency and versatility against back to back cupcakes on the schedule thus far. Now’s a good time as any to pad his stats which will give the junior plenty more confidence when heading into conference play. Of course it helps when you play for a PAC 12 powerhouse that has put up an average of 60 points per game. Redd (5-117 3 TD) is the Ducks’ top target labeled as a big play receiver getting behind opposing secondaries for big yardage on deep balls thrown. Johnson III (3-64 2 TD) is quick to the corners and over the middle and should see more action against an overmatched Spartans defense. Oregon loves to play up tempo and most of the time either go no huddle or spread their formation early in the play clock. Verdell (24-157 6.5 1 TD) and Brooks-James (26-134 5.2 2 TD) should once again shoulder most of the workload while Travis Dye (11-95 8.6 1 TD) completes the three headed monster. Despite SJSU winning the turnover battle 3-1 against Washington St head coach Brett Brennan knows his team is going to have its hands full. Jesse Osuna and Kyle Harmon are positive presences on the field and did record turnovers in an encouraging second half performance on the defensive side of the ball. Dakari Monroe and John Toussaint are going to have to play coverage man to man in order to stop Oregon’s utilization of the open field.
It appears to be another long year in the doldrums of the MWC for San Jose St, who faces some tough similar challenges ahead as a young program looking to string together a couple of wins amped up by a solid performance. Montel (26/44 348 2 TD) hasn’t looked bad, but this is a conservative offense that doesn’t have the ability to go toe to toe against opposing high powered offenses like Oregon. Bailey Gather (8-140 2 TD) is a legitimate threat when the Spartans offense is clicking, and San Jose State tight end Josh Oliver (13-137) is among the best in the nation and a player who should play at the next level. Standing 6-foot-5, 250 pounds, he’s a proven pass catcher who can run fairly deep routes over the middle as well as underneath to the sidelines. The weakness is a lot more glaring in the ground game, where San Jose St is averaging just 75 yards per contest, led by Tyler Nevens (18-79 4.4 2 TD) who has both rushing scores this season but suffered a head injury and did not play vs. WSU. If there’s a bright side, Bryce Crawford is one of the top kickers in the Mountain West, and he is one of the front runners to win all-conference honors at the end of the year. He has hit 30 of his 35 field goal attempts over the last two seasons, and that kind of consistency is something Brennan can lean on. As a unit, Oregon’s defense has seen a substantial amount of growth from last year to this year. The Ducks currently rank 39th in the nation in total defense and 21st in yards per play, proving how they’ve become more consistent. Jim Leavitt has this unit well prepared, and despite some window washing TD’s late yielded in games already decided look ready to do battle with the best in the conference soon forthcoming. The return of Jalen Jenks Jr. for his senior season has paid dividends especially since he passed up a chance at the NFL and holds second team PAC 12 honors. Justin Hollins is the most experienced back on the squad and Thomas Graham Jr. is an intimidating presence on the outside to opposing QB’s and receivers.
I’m not expecting another shutout, but Oregon will control pace and tempo of this game early looking to put up points once again at a breakneck pace. It took awhile to materialize, but like Ohio St in week one against an undermanned and oversized Oregon St bunch, the Ducks will punish the Spartans with a flurry of running and passing plays as well as a little digging from Mario Cristobal’s crystal ball playbook. The Ducks hang 70 in this one before calling off the dogs. Don’t let the large number scare you, because it only inspires me more the more I base this mismatch.
I’ll have a second play up later for week 3 of Saturday.
