Malaysian Grand Prix

LCD

LCD

2
Vettel to win pole +120 - 1 unit

Had to have a friend make this bet in England because I think the line gets worse. Ladbrokes has +137. Will likely go to pickem or worse. Will probably rain but of the drivers who have good cars the only really good ones in the wet are Hamilton, maybe Rosberg (he looked good in Australia) and maybe Alonso. Webber the biggest threat in Australia to the pole has almost no chance against SV in the wet. If it does rain then Sutil racing so well in Australia and fucking up his +100 or better line to win the race will just blow.
 
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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

Just wanted to add that Red Bull after Australia knows Vettel has to be able to run away from the field. If he gets bogged down in third or fourth he's in trouble because it looks like the car isn't anywhere near as good in those conditions with the tires.
 
LCD

LCD

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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

Saw Vettel at Pole +125 online on William Hill and thought I could run over to WH Reno sportsbooks and bet him there too. Fail.
 
LCD

LCD

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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

Mercedes car fast (3rd stop for Hamilton was a killer). Very fast in wet (Rosberg Q1 qualifying). Hamilton best wet weather driver in F1. Moody Hamilton upbeat. Betting this small now at this price because will only get worse if it rains during qualifying. Will wait for everything else.

Hamilton to win race +1000 - .2 units.
 
LCD

LCD

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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

Nice!

The rain is probably going to make the rest of the weekend a crapshoot. I should have bet more on Hamilton. If the leaders are forced to run down their tires in qualifying and it rains in the middle or end of the race then it could get really lol.

Vettel for pole is -130 now. Glad I didn't bet more on him because the rain can fuck things up but still happy with it.

Raikonnen is +300ish for race win.
 
allin1

allin1

Banned
Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

if it rains, it could get very unpredictable :) Sutil on podium and stuff like that.

I might get down on raikkonen for P3 too but I see the odds have dropped at only +350
 
LCD

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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

allin1 said:
if it rains, it could get very unpredictable :) Sutil on podium and stuff like that.

I might get down on raikkonen for P3 too but I see the odds have dropped at only +350
Click to expand...

That's why Sutil's performance last week fucked could have fucked things up. But he's +6600 to win. The Raikonnen bet is great because Red Bull is probably going to sit on their hands until qualifying now and Lotus looks like the next fastest car. Still unsure of them for the full race in hot temperatures using a full drum set for the front brake discs unless they can skip stops again. Also interesting to see how the P Zero Orange tire works. If Vettel gets pole and I'm sure of rain I'm probably going to bet every wet weather driver - Hamilton, Sutil, Alonso and also Perez especially after his drive last year, and Button for (for light rain) if the odds are good. Maybe also Rosberg after his strong performance in rain in qualifying last week.

Good luck.
 
LCD

LCD

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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

Vettel gets pole!

Crazy weather. He almost gets knocked out in Q2. And nails it at the end.

Will wait till an hour before the race to bet it so I can watch the weather. Probably won't bet Vettel just wet weather drivers who are longshots and pray for rain. At least there's little chance of Sutil getting lumped in with field though his odds won't be as good with his 9th. Perez and Button in good shape if it rains and then dries (especially Button).

Who do you like allin.
 
allin1

allin1

Banned
Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

Massa and Alonso in 2nd and 3rd. Interesting. I think Ferrari is the team to bet for the constructors championship. As the second driver Massa seems to be on the better form than Webber, Perez or Grosjean. Mercedes could have both drivers doing good the whole season but overall I think Alonso and Massa will do better.
 
allin1

allin1

Banned
Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

I wouldn't take Button or Perez if it rains, but a long shot Sutil would be really interesting depending on the odds. Besides that I wouldn't bet anything else than Vettel, Alonso, Raikkonen.

I will post later or just before the race if I decide on a bet.
 
LCD

LCD

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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

The reason to bet on Perez or Button (small bets) is that McLaren is desperate and doesn't have the pace and will be trying anything (Button already admitted this is their plan) like going to wets early when the field doesn't change. If there's a wet but drying track then Button is still the best driver in the world. With the 60% chance of rain then it's probably not worth it to make any kind of normal-sized bet because anything can happen tonight. I think Vettel or Alonso will win but at +188 and +200 it's just not worth it.

In this same situation with the same weather conditions last year you had a guy (Perez) who was 160-1 (can't remember the exact number) basically tanking the race for a guy (Alonso) in a shitty car who was 60-1.

We both like Sutil. If there's a downpour then he's as fast as anyone (it doesn't matter what car he's driving) and with his confidence he's a good bet. Everyone else will just be a small play and hope the race blows up.

So looking at (and using William Hill's lines):

Raikkonen +700
Hamilton (I already bet him but might make another small bet) +1000
Massa and Webber (forget it in the rain and in the dry they're probably not winning anyway)
Rosberg +2500
Sutil +5000
Perez +1000
Button +3300

60% chance right now. Will come back on in like 3 hours.
 
LCD

LCD

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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

It's going to be 88 degrees at race time but feel like 100. There will be a 72% chance of rain at the start moving to 74% in hour two. Based on this and the tire wear which Red Bull is freaking out about and again the shitty prices for the favorites and already having a small bet on Hamilton. Going small but going...

Raikkonen +700 .4 units
Rosberg +2500 .2 units
Button +3300 .1 units
Sutil +5000 .2 units
Perez +10000 .1 units

So 1 unit total plus Hamilton bet = 1.2 units on race winner.

So monsoon please after first tire change quickly followed by slow dry.
 
allin1

allin1

Banned
Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

Stupid from ferrari not to pit after the first lap. They didn't have any tires ready but that's not enough of a reason not to pit. It was dangerous to continue.
 
allin1

allin1

Banned
Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

winning bets with walk offs in baseball, last minute wins in football or with F1 wins are the best :houra
 
LCD

LCD

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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

Nice allin!.

After watching Alonso fuck up (interesting because good for me), Hamilton driving to the wrong pit (wtf because not good for me) and Button's fucked up wheel (really wtf because not good for me) I gave up and fell asleep. I then got up and watched the rest of it. Holy fuck Vettel. In the long run probably not a good idea to fuck the surly Australian on your own team. Webber is going to get him back. And Rosberg getting screwed.

Vettel for pole +1.2
Drivers to win -1.2

YTD: +1.8

The season just got awesome.
 
allin1

allin1

Banned
Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

To be honest I don't understand the big fuss about Vettel and Webber. I wonder what Senna would have said to all this... I think Vettel did it because he is a winner just like Sena and Schumi. I didn't even liked the guy but now... I really do, because this is a competitive sport, and competition should be in your blood if you are a true winner so you should try and win no matter what. Maybe that's why Vettel is the one who won 3 championships in the same kind of car Webber is driving.
 
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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

allin1 said:
To be honest I don't understand the big fuss about Vettel and Webber. I wonder what Senna would have said to all this... I think Vettel did it because he is a winner just like Sena and Schumi. I didn't even liked the guy but now... I really do, because this is a competitive sport, and competition should be in your blood if you are a true winner so you should try and win no matter what. Maybe that's why Vettel is the one who won 3 championships in the same kind of car Webber is driving.
Click to expand...

Absolutely. The problem is that Alonso (same personality better execution) has Massa completely under control. In a tight championship race Vettel now has a moody, very unhappy teammate who is not going to do him favors later when he needs it.

Rosberg/Hamilton on the other hand is just great.

Soap opera.

Sucks that it's 20 days till China. McLaren has time to scramble.
 
allin1

allin1

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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

LCD said:
Absolutely. The problem is that Alonso (same personality better execution) has Massa completely under control. In a tight championship race Vettel now has a moody, very unhappy teammate who is not going to do him favors later when he needs it.

Rosberg/Hamilton on the other hand is just great.

Soap opera.

Sucks that it's 20 days till China. McLaren has time to scramble.
Click to expand...

I still don't understand why everyone is talking about it. Did Webber really expected Vettel to sit tight in second place just because of the team orders? Now he is upset because Vettel didn't listen to the orders? I really don't understand. Or is he upset because Vettel is better than him and managed to get pass him? Or will he say that he actually let him pass because he didn't want to wear off his tires in the battle? I really don't get it. It's kind of irritating that the media are making such a big drama out of this bulls. You know what's interesting? The battle between the redbulls is probably the best part of the race. (I watched the replay) The skysports commentator was probably off his seat clenching his fists when that happened. Guys like you and me love these kind of pieces of action and most spectators do, but these guys want to turn it into a boring, keep it safe, don't wear the tires, strategic team game. Maybe Schumacher was right. Maybe it's better to have long lasting tires that let you push the car to it's limits the whole race. It should be fun for us and for them too, but they are to busy and stressed with taking care of their tires.
 
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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

Red Bull is really stressed about the tire wear. I guess they're going to fight for changes but hopefully it won't work.

"They are fast on one lap but then struggle with tyre degradation, which is partially due to the way they designed the car." - Boullier

I think it's great that Vettel and Webber went at it but you can understand Red Bull's anxiety about what Vettel was doing. Remember Australia in 2009. Vettel has had the best car. That seems no longer as certain especially as the season goes on. Alonso will then have a huge advantage for the rest of the season in a totally compliant teammate. It's a big deal for MW. MW is the only guy in the field I wouldn't fuck with in this situation. He's done the same for Vettel in the past. You know Red Bell is trying to fix things with him. I think it's going to come back to haunt Vettel.

As soon as the pole position bets are available for China I think I'm going to insta-bet Vettel at anything less than -200. If he's worse than that then I'll bet Webber for pole.
 
allin1

allin1

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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

I think you should start a thread for the whole season :btj:

Why so confident on the red bulls for china?
 
LCD

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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

Vettel had won pole in China in 2009, 2010 and 2011. But last year he didn't make Q3 which was the first time that happened (and breaking his streak of 41 consecutive top 10s in qualifying). Same thing happened to Webber the year before. I'm hoping (probably uselessly) that this affects the line for the Red Bulls in qualifying. They easily have the fastest car over a single lap. Like Boullier of Lotus said, Newey's design works over the short term. And they know they have to be in front because if they get held up that will effect the tire wear which they're struggling with even more.

I also think that Webber will take more chances in qualifying and the race to try to gain something back from Vettel. He's behind but not that far behind. Everyone else seems far behind and I don't see anything changing with the competitors' car (and definitely not for qualifying) until everyone gets back to Europe for the Spanish Grand Prix in May.

Vettel is +185ish to win in China. For me, he seems much more likely to win pole than to win the race. One is a single lap with much less variance with the far and away fastest single-lap car. Lines probably going to be terrible though. Like Alonso to make a comeback in the actual race. Ferrari is looking good.

What are you liking right now for China.

I'll start a season thread then.
 
allin1

allin1

Banned
Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

For China I would like Alonso at anything above +450

I don't know if the red bulls are going to take pole in China, but your arguments are pretty solid.
 
LCD

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2
Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

Definitely want to bet Alonso.

From James Allen:

But team boss Christian Horner has confirmed that once the final stops were completed, Vettel was told to follow Webber home and he disobeyed that instruction.

Although he is being compared with drivers like Senna and Schumacher from the past, who pushed things to the limit and beyond at times in pursuit of glory, neither driver to my knowledge disobeyed a team order. Senna and Prost fell out over violations of agreements between themselves, but not of rules imposed by the team.

So will Red Bull do anything to redress the situation?

Webber will have every reason to feel that he cannot trust the team or his team-mate. There have been previous incidents which have gone against him and made him feel like Vettel is “protected” by the management, as Webber suggested on Sunday’s podium.

However, the fact that they were willing to let Webber win Sunday’s race is interesting, given the way Webber is consistently undermined by Red Bull adviser Helmut Marko.

Equally, Bernie Ecclestone’s comments yesterday that Webber himself is protected by the loyalty of Red Bull owner Dietrich Mateschitz, highlights the unique situation Webber finds himself in within the team.

If Red Bull does nothing, Webber’s trust will have been lost for good and that could prove toxic for this campaign, especially if this is to be his his last season in F1.

Vettel is going to regret this.
 
LCD

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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

And I think Webber was told that Vettel was going to stay behind him so he had no clue what was going to happen.
 
allin1

allin1

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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

I still think it's all bullcrap.

Imagine if Vettel would have listened to the orders and let 7 points go, and then went on to lose the championship by 6 points. He would have regretted listening to the orders for the rest of his life. I don't understand what is so much to regret about his move, but maybe I don't understand the sport well enough.
 
allin1

allin1

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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

People pay to see drivers race/fight for 1st place, not for a guy in front of a monitor to decide the order on the podium. How many of us want to see the second car just following the first for the last 10 laps without the slightest attempt to overtake, especially when it's the 3 times world champion? :+clueless
 
LCD

LCD

2
Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

It's terrible for racing. It's politics. It's now shit that Vettel is going to have to deal with. Shit that Alonso will never, ever have to worry about (it's wrong what Ferrari does, but it helps them and him a lot).
 
allin1

allin1

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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

LCD said:
It's terrible for racing. It's politics. It's now shit that Vettel is going to have to deal with. Shit that Alonso will never, ever have to worry about (it's wrong what Ferrari does, but it helps them and him a lot).
Click to expand...

why is it wrong?
 
LCD

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Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

The team boss in that quote probably is Newey. Lol.

Liked this quote.

Red Bull is an interesting case. A few years ago they were happy to criticise Ferrari for using team orders and declaring that their own drivers could always race, until Vettel and Webber crashed together in Istanbul in 2010. Then we fast forward via numerous team decisions to this Sunday's Malaysian GP.

Ferrari blows for having team orders. Red Bull has recently used team orders to Vettel's advantage. Webber (if it's his last season) is probably not going to be following team orders now. Will be funny if later in the season he passes Vettel in a race while Red Bull is yelling at him not to do it.
 
allin1

allin1

Banned
Re: Malaysian Grand Prix

I don't think there will be any more similar incidents at red bull this season. What they will agree upon before the race will probably be respected by both drivers regardless of the circumstances.

I wonder what Bernie had to say about this whole incident. :btj:
 
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