ML Dogs in the NBA
- Thread starter SSI
- Start date
ATX
2
Re: ML Dogs in the NBA
those are on closing lines, right?
for example, Portland opened +1, I stepped away for a few minutes and they were at -1.5, a little similar to Utah yesterday.
typically teams that cross the 'mendoza line' (from +1 to -1 etc) do well, or did ATS. I don't do much database stuff, but it might be interesting if it was easy to exclude those teams (or maybe the opposite).
What you are pointing out does make sense IMO. Typically the betting public loves to jump on 'easy winners', a short spread on a good team. I bet a fair amount of those SU winners are home dogs.
those are on closing lines, right?
for example, Portland opened +1, I stepped away for a few minutes and they were at -1.5, a little similar to Utah yesterday.
typically teams that cross the 'mendoza line' (from +1 to -1 etc) do well, or did ATS. I don't do much database stuff, but it might be interesting if it was easy to exclude those teams (or maybe the opposite).
What you are pointing out does make sense IMO. Typically the betting public loves to jump on 'easy winners', a short spread on a good team. I bet a fair amount of those SU winners are home dogs.
ATX
2
Re: ML Dogs in the NBA
I'm not 100% but if I remember correctly teams that move from dog to favorite are 4-1 this year, if that makes more sense. So it doesn't happen all that much, and usually early on in the year far more frequently than later, but if you have the ability to manipulate a db (open vs close) it may (or may not) increase the yield.
I'm not 100% but if I remember correctly teams that move from dog to favorite are 4-1 this year, if that makes more sense. So it doesn't happen all that much, and usually early on in the year far more frequently than later, but if you have the ability to manipulate a db (open vs close) it may (or may not) increase the yield.
Re: ML Dogs in the NBA
id suggest waiting until the very last, to make the bet.
looks like (2-1) last night..
Over the last 525 plays (all of last year and whats been played this year), the angle is hitting (47.6%) 250-275.
ill be out of town for 2 weeks (starting friday), so i wont be posting any of this here, while im away.
but it seems to be something, worth looking at.
SSI
id suggest waiting until the very last, to make the bet.
looks like (2-1) last night..
Over the last 525 plays (all of last year and whats been played this year), the angle is hitting (47.6%) 250-275.
ill be out of town for 2 weeks (starting friday), so i wont be posting any of this here, while im away.
but it seems to be something, worth looking at.
SSI
Re: ML Dogs in the NBA
Thanks SSI
Thanks SSI
Re: ML Dogs in the NBA
thanks Junkman
last day for me here, then im gone for a couple of weeks.
dogs went (4-2) SU last night, runs the record to..
Moneyline Dogs, getting from (+1pt) to (+4.5pts)
all of last season: 217-244 (47.1%)
all of this season: 37-33 (52.9%)
last 531 plays: 254-277 (47.8%)
looks like phx (+1.60) at the moment for tonight..
good luck guys, back in a couple of weeks.
SSI
thanks Junkman
last day for me here, then im gone for a couple of weeks.
dogs went (4-2) SU last night, runs the record to..
Moneyline Dogs, getting from (+1pt) to (+4.5pts)
all of last season: 217-244 (47.1%)
all of this season: 37-33 (52.9%)
last 531 plays: 254-277 (47.8%)
looks like phx (+1.60) at the moment for tonight..
good luck guys, back in a couple of weeks.
SSI
Re: ML Dogs in the NBA
Have a safe and fun trip
Have a safe and fun trip