Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development

[NattyBumpo]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Its still a little early but I think the Braves might be worth a look on opening day. Derek Lowe is a solid pitcher who knows how to keep the ball down in a band box ball park like Philly. The bats seem to be lively and Chipper Jones is healthy and primed to pad his Hall of Fame stats.
Appears that Philly is falling for the classic post World Series slump. Thier spring numbers are poor to inconsistant, Hamels is pushing to start but will not be in prime shape should he start and Brett Meyers also logged some late October innings also. Not the most impressive strike out to walk ratios in his latest spring games.

Surely they will be a nice priced hungry divisional rival facing a post World Series champion chock full of complacency. Lots of opening day bells and whistle adulations to add to the normal distractions. Ill be looking hard to play the Braves.

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Thanks for all the input, guys. ATX, you know I'm a fan of your methods and way of thinking, anything you can add I appreciate. The road dog stats really surprised me, it seems you can do well with most divisional dogs of any stripe. Unless you run into an odd season where the losses cut into the previous gains. I'd be careful simply because the last 2 years were big winners for the road dogs, and I think they may be due to regress. Great info here and I hope we can continue to discuss moving into the season. I was going to simply post some data and move on, but now, I will track the dogs (H & R) all year right in this thread. I've been working so hard on NBA stuff, that I almost forgot to check back here.

 

[austintx05]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

munson - do you have results for just AL division home dogs?

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

munson - do you have results for just AL division home dogs?

No, I did them all by hand and did not separate by league. Sorry.

 

[austintx05]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

How many years did you track division dogs? I'm curious to know the results. Do you think this is a profitable strategy?:cheers

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

How many years did you track division dogs? I'm curious to know the results. Do you think this is a profitable strategy?:cheers

I listed a couple of seasons earlier in the thread, and another poster listed home and road records for several years' worth of games.

 

[Jambruins]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

I think the value is in the opposite side, Road Dogs in Division Rivalries.
And only betting Away Dogs in Division Rival Games

1999 165 204 $ 2,558.00 2.43 44.7%
2000 164 203 $ 2,847.00 2.44 44.7%
2002 212 311 $ (562.00) 2.48 40.5%
2003 198 286 $ 2,388.00 2.57 40.9%
2004 207 292 $ (470.00) 2.45 41.5%
2005 246 290 $ 4,391.78 2.39 45.9%
2006 244 327 $ (259.92) 2.39 42.7%
2007 226 265 $ 4,355.70 2.38 46.0%
2008 250 315 $ 2,215.88 2.39 44.2%
2117 2749 $19,565.43


All of the above is based on closing lines and no bets after September 1st.

I like the Away Dog value.

Just my 2 cents

Big Happy

Are these numbers based on playing the road dog in division games at any odds or do the odds have to be above a certain number (i.e. above +120 or something like that)? Thanks.

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Road Divisional Dogs----------------

1-0, +120

 

[Jambruins]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

muson, do you play every road divisional dog regardless of the odds? Thanks and gl!

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

I think the main thing is to make a committment. If you consider yourself a handicapper, then you need to delve into each game looking for a unique set of circumstances that create value on a bet. If you bet systems, or do something mechanically, that is, over and over in the hopes of grinding out a profit, then you have to play them all.

Now, you can limit yourself in this approach somewhat by placing filters on a system that make you more comfortable. In the example we are discussing here, that would be road divisional dogs. (I happen to be only tracking them in this thread.) Maybe you don't like dogs that are not paying a premium price and decide that only +120 and higher dogs will meet your criteria. Still, that is a system and you can play it mechanically.

You can further whittle down the system by saying that you'll only play road divisional dogs within a certain range such as between +120 and +160, figuring that the greater dogs are outclassed. The main thing is to find a set of games or create a subset out of them that you can stay with. Once you decide you are not handicapping, you must be 100% mechanical, or you bring subjectivity into the mix.

Basically, I would advise you to make a firm decision, TODAY, on what you want to do with the season. Then, set aside a bankroll for the season that you can afford to lose. Finally, I would strongly advocate flat betting whatever you decide to do. Even if you go the capping route, I would urge you not to play around with units, because that leads to chasing, which is the bane of all bettors.

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Home Divisional Dogs------------

BAL +180

Road Divisional Dogs--------------

col +152
was +145
pit +162
lad +123
tb +137
oak +130

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Its still a little early but I think the Braves might be worth a look on opening day. Derek Lowe is a solid pitcher who knows how to keep the ball down in a band box ball park like Philly. The bats seem to be lively and Chipper Jones is healthy and primed to pad his Hall of Fame stats.
Appears that Philly is falling for the classic post World Series slump. Thier spring numbers are poor to inconsistant, Hamels is pushing to start but will not be in prime shape should he start and Brett Meyers also logged some late October innings also. Not the most impressive strike out to walk ratios in his latest spring games.

Surely they will be a nice priced hungry divisional rival facing a post World Series champion chock full of complacency. Lots of opening day bells and whistle adulations to add to the normal distractions. Ill be looking hard to play the Braves.

Nice call on Atlanta, Natty.:cheers

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Going to throw a few more systems out there for your consideration. I had heard that playing a team off a blown save was worth looking into. So, I studied them last year and came up with a record of 54-58 for a loss of 2.48 units. I concluded that the blown save angle, in and of itself, was not worth pursuing. I know it's only one year, but if I don't show a profit in year one, it's difficult to muster up enough enthusiasm to track/play it into the next season.

p.s. Dogs went +4.08 units.

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Home Divisional Dogs--------------

1-0 +180

Road Divisional Dogs--------------

3-3, +105

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Road Divisional Dogs---------------

atl +106
was +137
pit +140
col +138
lad +102
oak +105
kc +118
tb +132

Home Divisional Dogs----------

HOU +102

 

[Jambruins]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

munson, I see OAK is now -103 at my book. Are they still a play or does the dog have to be +100 or better (LAA is -107 so I guess technically OAK is still the dog)? Thanks.

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

I never play a 'dog' unless they carry a dog price of +100 or better. The line you describe would be a 'pick' in my book. Hope that helps. Just be consistent whatever you decide, so you have most everything figured out in advance. Figure you missed the price and there is no value in the present number. That's the problem with posting games early, I guess.

 

[Chackiee]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Dodgers Are Now Favorite As Well, Houston Became An Underdog Last Night Too...Going To Be Hard To Decipher Underdogs From Faves When The Prices Are That Low

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

munson, I see OAK is now -103 at my book. Are they still a play or does the dog have to be +100 or better (LAA is -107 so I guess technically OAK is still the dog)? Thanks.

Just thought of something else. If you wait until tonight, the price may fluctuate right back to '+' territory. Put this game on your watch list. GL.

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Dodgers Are Now Favorite As Well, Houston Became An Underdog Last Night Too...Going To Be Hard To Decipher Underdogs From Faves When The Prices Are That Low

Some guys who's opinions I value will not consider a 'dog' to be an actual dog unless they can get a +110 or better. That is one way to deal with the lower priced teams.:cheers

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Road Divisional Dogs---------------


was +137
pit +140
col +138
kc +118
tb +132

Home Divisional Dogs----------

HOU +110

Tell you what, since we've had no games under +110 so far, let me make a decision to help out with this. I'll only post games +110 or better. There should be very few games that move out of range from there. The Astros are +110 at Matchbook, so I'll leave them in. This will be the new list for today.

 

[Chackiee]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Some guys who's opinions I value will not consider a 'dog' to be an actual dog unless they can get a +110 or better. That is one way to deal with the lower priced teams.:cheers

Thanks, That's What I Was Thinking....I Flat Bet All Underdogs During College Bowl Season And It Was A Pain When Line Fluctuated Between -1 And +1 12io4j2w90

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Thanks, That's What I Was Thinking....I Flat Bet All Underdogs During College Bowl Season And It Was A Pain When Line Fluctuated Between -1 And +1 12io4j2w90

I used that dog system many times, and I usually played dogs that opened a dog and remained a dog until game day. That worked pretty well. BTW, Chackiee, how are the 4-legged athletes treating you?

 

[Chackiee]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

I used that dog system many times, and I usually played dogs that opened a dog and remained a dog until game day. That worked pretty well. BTW, Chackiee, how are the 4-legged athletes treating you?

Been A Very Good Year Thus Far, The Last 6 Weeks Have Been Unreal 12io4j2w90

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Been A Very Good Year Thus Far, The Last 6 Weeks Have Been Unreal 12io4j2w90

Without Sam to remind me, I always forget to check you guys out in there. Congrats, I see you got trainer of the month for March.:cheers

 

[Chackiee]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Without Sam to remind me, I always forget to check you guys out in there. Congrats, I see you got trainer of the month for March.:cheers

Had A Few Nice Prices Last Month, The Horse In My Avatar Is Going To Run In June, Maybe I Will Whisper In Your Ear If I Think He Has A Shot 12io4j2w90

 

[munson15]

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Had A Few Nice Prices Last Month, The Horse In My Avatar Is Going To Run In June, Maybe I Will Whisper In Your Ear If I Think He Has A Shot 12io4j2w90

That would be much appreciated!!!:cheers

 

[diogee]

Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development

Great thread Munson...going to be keeping a close eye on how this does. Good luck and thanks.

 

[munson15]

Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development

Great thread Munson...going to be keeping a close eye on how this does. Good luck and thanks.

I love having you and Jessica pay me a visit, D. Thanks for the encouraging words, we'll do our best in here, that's for sure.12io4j2w90

 

[munson15]

Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development

Adding to Home Divisional Dogs-----------

SD +115

 

[munson15]

Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development

If anyone has $6500 laying around, there's a 3%, 6-month CD for you at Matchbook. Play the Nationals NOT to win the NL East at -6500.

 

[munson15]

Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development

It's always so fucked up, 2 of the 3 we threw out won, naturally.:devil:

 

[munson15]

Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development

Road Divisional Dogs--------------

4-7, -157

Home Divisional Dogs--------------

3-0, +405

 

[munson15]

Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development

Road Divisional Dogs-------------

was +135
col +123
pit +148
tb +141

Home Divisonal Dogs------------

HOU +130
SD +165
BAL +152

 

[Chackiee]

Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development

It's always so fucked up, 2 of the 3 we threw out won, naturally.:devil:

Felt Much Better When I Woke Up Today Than When I Went To Bed Last Night

 

[felonee]

Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development

I'm on Hou, Soto out for the Cubs and Lilly has looked bad in preseason...

 

[munson15]

Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development

I'm on Hou, Soto out for the Cubs and Lilly has looked bad in preseason...

That makes two of us, GL!:cheers

 

[Adam Jones]

Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development

Love HOU tonight, GL

 

[munson15]

Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development

Felt Much Better When I Woke Up Today Than When I Went To Bed Last Night

I hear you, Chackiee, I had no idea who won the Houston or San Diego games until I was driving into work this morning. Sure made the coffee and bagel taste better.:thumbsup

 

[munson15]

Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development

Road Divisional Dogs------------------

W7 L8, +155