Sports betting is a difficult exercise for gamblers using a trial-and-error approach.
If you're forced to commit a mistake for every lesson learned, the likelihood of survival, let alone success, is highly improbable.
Smart gamblers learn from their mistakes, wise gamblers learn from others.
Granted, some people are incapable or unwilling to learn from others, they must touch the hot stove for themselves.
But it's essential and rather elementary to understand the risks and rewards associated with sports betting without ever placing a wager.
A win rate of 52.38% is the break-even point in the world of 11/10.
Any rate above the mark establishes your edge; any rate below the target dictates the optimum bet size to be zero.
The biggest mistake committed by veteran handicappers is the inability to evolve with the changing nature of various sports.
Baseball's launch angle hysteria, basketball's three-point revolution and football's spread offenses have changed the games drastically in recent years.
Recognizing emerging trends and properly evaluating the changes on the field and in the betting marketplace are critical for keeping up with the game and more importantly, staying ahead of the game.
Listed below are 10 mistakes I've made over the past three months in the gambling arena and life in general:
1) Playing too many MLB unders in games where the road team is favored.
In all sports, underdogs are more productive at home than on the road.
When underdogs produce runs (baseball) or points (football or basketball) or goals (hockey and soccer), it places under bettors in serious jeopardy.
2) Study other sports like I study the WNBA.
The "W" is an easy follow with only 12 players on each of the 12 teams in a league presenting 204 regular-season games, similar to the NFL's 256.
Tracking the WNBA is like following a Pac-12 basketball season without the non-conference schedule.
Like most everyone else, I can follow the games on a college football Saturday but do I know the product as well as my fellow handicappers?
Unfortunately not.
3) Failure to pump up my wagers in the WNBA and NBA Summer League.
It only makes sense to make your largest wagers on your field of expertise, yet during the second quarter of 2018, I lost most of my roundball profits at MLB ballparks.
Dumb, dumb, dumb.
4) Accept more mistakes at the racetrack when betting a little to win a lot, especially in the attractive Pick 5 pools featuring a 14% takeout.
It's better to commit a mistake when shooting for a five- or six-figure payout than to carry a regret for an extended period of time.
I'm still smarting from not supporting Justify at odds of 60/1 (Wynn Las Vegas) to win the Triple Crown.
5) My thoughts are sometimes too measured.
Handicap with decisiveness, no milquetoast opinions.
Be all-in with your handicapping work and commit to a never-ending search for the right price.
6) I mistimed my three-month stay in Costa Rica.
Spending May, June and July to learn about the international sports betting scene came at a time when many of the owners and managers are away from their business.
I'm heading back to the States later this week with plans for another three-month run later this year in San Jose, Costa Rica.
7) Broaden my list of handicapping comrades because I rarely discuss my wagers or strategies with anyone.
I'm a gambling loner but most successful people surround themselves with smart people.
I plan to share handicapping thoughts over the next couple of months with EOG contributors like ComptrBob, 2W2P2S, ChiTownJoe, RAININTHREES, Skinny, Voodoo, Heim, Railbird and several others.
8) I search for value in the gambling world but I'm guilty of free-spending in the real world.
Stop with the runs to convenience stores where most products are grossly overpriced.
I also must avoid "international transaction fees" when withdrawing funds through my Citibank account.
Additionally, be careful with exchange rates from colones to dollars and vice versa.
Casino Club Colonial offers one of the best exchange rates (562 colones for every dollar) in downtown San Jose, similar to local banks like BCR and Davivienda, and far better than Juan Santamaria International Airport which offers the worst exchange rate in the country
.
9) Take better care of my feet, no joke.
Too much walking and running on the uneven surfaces and sidewalks of San Jose.
Playground basketball at La Sabana Park did not help my cause where pebbles, rocks and broken glass dot the unforgiving pavement.
An extra 15-20 pounds added more pressure on my feet.
Buying athletic shoes in Costa Rica was also an error in judgment.
Poorly-made Chinese imports (read: Nike knockoffs) provided little support for my barking feet.
The Chinese ship their top-quality products to the U.S. and Canada while poorer countries in Central America like Panama, Nicaragua and Costa Rica receive China's "seconds" or "thirds."
10) Handicap the ladies of "The Pirate Club" with more attention to detail.
"The Pirate Club," located on Avienda 10, is a favorite spot for locals and tourists alike where the slogan reads, "Booty, Wenches and Grog."
I got fooled the other day by a five-foot four-inch girl posing as a leggy model in six-inch heels.
#BetterPostParadeInspection
MONDAY'S BEST BET...Play 918 Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 runs (-105) over the Texas Rangers.
Martin Perez v Robbie Ray.
Both pitchers have missed extended time this season, Perez with an elbow injury and Ray with an oblique injury.
Ray exits his sharpest effort since a June 27th return, allowing only one run and four hits in seven innings of work in a no-decision against the Cubs.
Perez sports a season WHIP over 2.00.
The D-backs are battling for a playoff spot in a highly-competitive National League while the Rangers are merely playing out the season at 17 games under .500.
If you're forced to commit a mistake for every lesson learned, the likelihood of survival, let alone success, is highly improbable.
Smart gamblers learn from their mistakes, wise gamblers learn from others.
Granted, some people are incapable or unwilling to learn from others, they must touch the hot stove for themselves.
But it's essential and rather elementary to understand the risks and rewards associated with sports betting without ever placing a wager.
A win rate of 52.38% is the break-even point in the world of 11/10.
Any rate above the mark establishes your edge; any rate below the target dictates the optimum bet size to be zero.
The biggest mistake committed by veteran handicappers is the inability to evolve with the changing nature of various sports.
Baseball's launch angle hysteria, basketball's three-point revolution and football's spread offenses have changed the games drastically in recent years.
Recognizing emerging trends and properly evaluating the changes on the field and in the betting marketplace are critical for keeping up with the game and more importantly, staying ahead of the game.
Listed below are 10 mistakes I've made over the past three months in the gambling arena and life in general:
1) Playing too many MLB unders in games where the road team is favored.
In all sports, underdogs are more productive at home than on the road.
When underdogs produce runs (baseball) or points (football or basketball) or goals (hockey and soccer), it places under bettors in serious jeopardy.
2) Study other sports like I study the WNBA.
The "W" is an easy follow with only 12 players on each of the 12 teams in a league presenting 204 regular-season games, similar to the NFL's 256.
Tracking the WNBA is like following a Pac-12 basketball season without the non-conference schedule.
Like most everyone else, I can follow the games on a college football Saturday but do I know the product as well as my fellow handicappers?
Unfortunately not.
3) Failure to pump up my wagers in the WNBA and NBA Summer League.
It only makes sense to make your largest wagers on your field of expertise, yet during the second quarter of 2018, I lost most of my roundball profits at MLB ballparks.
Dumb, dumb, dumb.
4) Accept more mistakes at the racetrack when betting a little to win a lot, especially in the attractive Pick 5 pools featuring a 14% takeout.
It's better to commit a mistake when shooting for a five- or six-figure payout than to carry a regret for an extended period of time.
I'm still smarting from not supporting Justify at odds of 60/1 (Wynn Las Vegas) to win the Triple Crown.
5) My thoughts are sometimes too measured.
Handicap with decisiveness, no milquetoast opinions.
Be all-in with your handicapping work and commit to a never-ending search for the right price.
6) I mistimed my three-month stay in Costa Rica.
Spending May, June and July to learn about the international sports betting scene came at a time when many of the owners and managers are away from their business.
I'm heading back to the States later this week with plans for another three-month run later this year in San Jose, Costa Rica.
7) Broaden my list of handicapping comrades because I rarely discuss my wagers or strategies with anyone.
I'm a gambling loner but most successful people surround themselves with smart people.
I plan to share handicapping thoughts over the next couple of months with EOG contributors like ComptrBob, 2W2P2S, ChiTownJoe, RAININTHREES, Skinny, Voodoo, Heim, Railbird and several others.
8) I search for value in the gambling world but I'm guilty of free-spending in the real world.
Stop with the runs to convenience stores where most products are grossly overpriced.
I also must avoid "international transaction fees" when withdrawing funds through my Citibank account.
Additionally, be careful with exchange rates from colones to dollars and vice versa.
Casino Club Colonial offers one of the best exchange rates (562 colones for every dollar) in downtown San Jose, similar to local banks like BCR and Davivienda, and far better than Juan Santamaria International Airport which offers the worst exchange rate in the country
.
9) Take better care of my feet, no joke.
Too much walking and running on the uneven surfaces and sidewalks of San Jose.
Playground basketball at La Sabana Park did not help my cause where pebbles, rocks and broken glass dot the unforgiving pavement.
An extra 15-20 pounds added more pressure on my feet.
Buying athletic shoes in Costa Rica was also an error in judgment.
Poorly-made Chinese imports (read: Nike knockoffs) provided little support for my barking feet.
The Chinese ship their top-quality products to the U.S. and Canada while poorer countries in Central America like Panama, Nicaragua and Costa Rica receive China's "seconds" or "thirds."
10) Handicap the ladies of "The Pirate Club" with more attention to detail.
"The Pirate Club," located on Avienda 10, is a favorite spot for locals and tourists alike where the slogan reads, "Booty, Wenches and Grog."
I got fooled the other day by a five-foot four-inch girl posing as a leggy model in six-inch heels.
#BetterPostParadeInspection
MONDAY'S BEST BET...Play 918 Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 runs (-105) over the Texas Rangers.
Martin Perez v Robbie Ray.
Both pitchers have missed extended time this season, Perez with an elbow injury and Ray with an oblique injury.
Ray exits his sharpest effort since a June 27th return, allowing only one run and four hits in seven innings of work in a no-decision against the Cubs.
Perez sports a season WHIP over 2.00.
The D-backs are battling for a playoff spot in a highly-competitive National League while the Rangers are merely playing out the season at 17 games under .500.
