My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Fear the Deer.

The Milwaukee Bucks are on the cusp of winning their first playoff series since 2001.

But the team's ultimate goal is much greater than a four-game sweep of the struggling Detroit Pistons.

The Bucks this postseason are hoping to match their dominating 1970-71 season when veteran point guard Oscar Robertson (age 32) and second-year center Lew Alcindor (age 23) captured the only NBA title in franchise history in the team's third year of existence.

Nearly 50 years later, the Bucks, led by 24-year-old superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, are back in the championship hunt.

The Bucks finished the '70-71 regular season with an impressive 66-16 mark and went 12-2 in the playoffs, climaxing an impressive postseason run by sweeping the Baltimore Bullets in four games.

The Bucks pounded a team featuring Earl Monroe and Wes Unseld by an average of more than 12 points per game in the 1971 NBA Finals.

Not until the Warriors swept the Cavs last season in the NBA Finals, winning four games by a combined margin of 60 points, had a team been so dominant in the league's signature event.

Another display of Milwaukee's overall dominance in 1971 took place in the two games following its pair of playoff losses.

The Bucks beat the Lakers and a declining Wilt Chamberlain by 20 following a Game 3 loss in the West Conference Finals.

One week earlier, the Bucks embarrassed the Warriors and leading scorer Nate Thurmond by 50 after a Game 4 loss in the West Conference Semifinals.

Longtime NBA analysts expect great teams to rebound after a rare loss.

The widely-used term "bounce back" seems to be at least a half-century old.

In search of his first NBA title, "The Big O" tutored a young Alcindor to play the game the right way, which at the time, loosely translated to taking shots close to the basket.

Robertson and head coach Larry Costello preached the importance of offensive efficiency with the following knowledge: the shorter the shot, the higher the field-goal percentage.

The world champion Bucks led the NBA in field-goal rate at 50.9% during a season in which league average failed to hit 45%.

Fast forward to this season and the Bucks are thriving by taking shots -- and defending shots -- from long distance.

Head coach Mike Budenholzer, a Gregg Popovich disciple, believes in never taking a challenged shot from inside the three-point arc.

The three-point line was introduced to the NBA before the 1979-80 season but only in recent seasons has it changed the game so dramatically.

In the second season of the three-point shot, games averaged only one made three-pointer from four attempts.

This season, games averaged nearly 23 made three-pointers from 64 shots from beyond the arc, both numbers are all-time highs.

The critical question for the Bucks this postseason: Does "The Greek Freak" have enough support to upset the extravagant roster of the two-time defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors?

Highly doubtful.

Antetokounmpo fashions nearly as much length as Kevin Durant and he's quickly building the strength to match an aging LeBron James, a player who no longer rules the East after winning eight straight conference titles.

A Milwaukee-Golden State showdown would pit Durant, the league's best player, against Antetokounmpo, the league's second-best player.

Two problems for Milwaukee: 1) Antetokounmpo's outside shot needs refinement and 2) His teammates are unproven on the NBA's biggest stage.

The Bucks deserve favoritism to represent the Eastern Conference in the 2019 NBA Finals.

But the Warriors are clearly the team to beat.

The NBA, unlike other major sports, has received criticism in recent years for lacking suspense or intrigue when it comes to predicting league champions.

The Warriors are seeking their third straight title and fourth in five seasons and the chances of success not only look feasible but also inevitable.
 
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winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Sorry but I don't believe in the Bucks at all. Not for one nanosecond. Gimme the Celtics over the Bucks if/when they meet. And it wouldn't shock me to see the Celtics actually favored in the series. Bucks are a nice team but in the NBA you need to learn how to lose before you can win it all. You need to progress. You do well one year then the next year you advance further. You don't come from nowhere and win in the NBA (I know it has been done before but very few exceptions to this "rule"). Celtics in 5 over the Bucks
 

railbird

EOG Master
What about hockey?

Nice to see Sharks get a road win tonight.
 
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Heim

EOG Master
No doubt in my mind HOU can beat GSW. They're better than last year & GSW is slightly worse especially without McGee & West in the rotation. Faried has been a big plus & House gives them depth at wing. Moreover, Boogie will be missed. He was surprisingly good guarding Capella in reg season...
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Sorry but I don't believe in the Bucks at all. Not for one nanosecond. Gimme the Celtics over the Bucks if/when they meet. And it wouldn't shock me to see the Celtics actually favored in the series. Bucks are a nice team but in the NBA you need to learn how to lose before you can win it all. You need to progress. You do well one year then the next year you advance further. You don't come from nowhere and win in the NBA (I know it has been done before but very few exceptions to this "rule"). Celtics in 5 over the Bucks


The Celts favored over the Bucks?

Wink, the Bucks will have homecourt advantage and they beat opponents by an average of nearly 9 points (8.9) per game this season.

Boston's net point differential was only 4.5.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
No doubt in my mind HOU can beat GSW. They're better than last year & GSW is slightly worse especially without McGee & West in the rotation. Faried has been a big plus & House gives them depth at wing. Moreover, Boogie will be missed. He was surprisingly good guarding Capella in reg season...


Mike D'Antoni-led teams are 46-44 in the postseason.

His teams have never appeared in the NBA Finals, let alone win a game in the NBA Finals.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
The Celts favored over the Bucks?

Wink, the Bucks will have homecourt advantage and they beat opponents by an average of nearly 9 points (8.9) per game this season.

Boston's net point differential was only 4.5.
I’ll be more than happy to take the Bucks at a + price.

Nice to see the. UCLA with a legitimate chance of making the finals. They always had very good teams after trading Jabbar throughout the 90s, but were always the dominant big man short.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
I’ll be more than happy to take the Bucks at a + price.

Nice to see the Bucks with a legitimate chance of making the finals. They always had very good teams after trading Jabbar throughout the 90s, but were always the dominant big man short.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Up 16 at home in the third quarter of the series-clinching game and they blew it.

Hard to fathom.

Then again, it's that crazy style of shooting threes non-stop.
 

bomzee

EOG Dedicated
Mike D'Antoni-led teams are 46-44 in the postseason.

His teams have never appeared in the NBA Finals, let alone win a game in the NBA Finals.
one year in the semifinals against the Spurs there was strong allegations that D'antoni's Suns were victimized by dirty ref Tim Donaghy's one sided calls.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
The Celts favored over the Bucks?

Wink, the Bucks will have homecourt advantage and they beat opponents by an average of nearly 9 points (8.9) per game this season.

Boston's net point differential was only 4.5.

Cool. Awesome. Sorry - I simply DO NOT BELIEVE in the Bucks. AT ALL!

I hope Bucks are favored to win the series so I can get Celtics at "Plus Money" to advance.
 

kane

EOG master
Cool. Awesome. Sorry - I simply DO NOT BELIEVE in the Bucks. AT ALL!

I hope Bucks are favored to win the series so I can get Celtics at "Plus Money" to advance.

As a Celtics fan I hope you're right about the outcome of the series, but I think you're underestimating how good Milwaukee is, and there's no way Boston is the chalk, I'm thinking Milw -240 Bost +200, or somewhere in that range
 

kane

EOG master
The Celts favored over the Bucks?

Wink, the Bucks will have homecourt advantage and they beat opponents by an average of nearly 9 points (8.9) per game this season.

Boston's net point differential was only 4.5.

I'm not saying my way of thinking is right or wrong, but I don't put much stock in the regular season as it relates to the postseason, the level of intensity increases dramatically once the playoffs start. For example, many thought OKC would beat Portland due to sweeping them 4-0 during the season, but that hasn't translated in the playoffs. For whatever reason the C's underachieved all season, chemistry issues, locker room issues, and injuries all played a factor, but when they're healthy and all on the same page, they're as good as anyone in the East, the series against Milwaukee should be a classic
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
As a Celtics fan I hope you're right about the outcome of the series, but I think you're underestimating how good Milwaukee is, and there's no way Boston is the chalk, I'm thinking Milw -240 Bost +200, or somewhere in that range

I doubt it comes that high. I am thinking something like: Bucks -160/Celtics +130
 

Foresthill

EOG Addicted
The last time I wrote about the NHL I predicted Las Vegas sports fans would largely ignore the Golden Knights in their inaugural season.

Enough said.

I'm going to "help" you out here Kelly.

I'm supposing that 's because you assumed they would be the typical expansion team in sports. They turned out not to be, for at least two reasons:

#1. They were always going to draw opposing teams fans making an "excuse" for a Vegas vacation, and Las Vegas fans of opposing teams.

#2. They were not the typical expansion team in that they won immediately and became the "cool" team to be a fan of for the notoriously front-running Las Vegas fan (see Unlv basketball). Watch how the attendance drops when the team inevitably becomes bad (and, thus, not "cool") as all sports teams do.

IMHO, people who don't follow the NHL playoffs are missing out on the best, most exciting, tense and toughest to win playoffs in all of sport. (#8 seeds can and do win the Stanley Cup -- Los Angeles Kings. In fact they were down 0-3 in the first round before winning the next four games and eventually winning the Stanley Cup.)

Also, there is no better overtime in all of sport than playoff hockey overtimes. (No commercials during overtimes -- the teams play straight through for 20 minutes. Its pure sport at its finest, often with surprising results. For instance, a short-handed goal by San Jose (in yesterday's game) in the 2nd overtime wins the game for a team completely outplayed in regulation by Vegas.)
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I'm going to "help" you out here Kelly.

I'm supposing that 's because you assumed they would be the typical expansion team in sports. They turned out not to be, for at least two reasons:

#1. They were always going to draw opposing teams fans making an "excuse" for a Vegas vacation, and Las Vegas fans of opposing teams.

#2. They were not the typical expansion team in that they won immediately and became the "cool" team to be a fan of for the notoriously front-running Las Vegas fan (see Unlv basketball). Watch how the attendance drops when the team inevitably becomes bad (and, thus, not "cool") as all sports teams do.

IMHO, people who don't follow the NHL playoffs are missing out on the best, most exciting, tense and toughest to win playoffs in all of sport. (#8 seeds can and do win the Stanley Cup -- Los Angeles Kings. In fact they were down 0-3 in the first round before winning the next four games and eventually winning the Stanley Cup.)

Also, there is no better overtime in all of sport than playoff hockey overtimes. (No commercials during overtimes -- the teams play straight through for 20 minutes. Its pure sport at its finest, often with surprising results. For instance, a short-handed goal by San Jose (in yesterday's game) in the 2nd overtime wins the game for a team completely outplayed in regulation by Vegas.)


Good points, Foresthill.

Is the hockey postseason exciting or the regular season a complete and total bore?

No shootouts in the postseason.

That helps the excitement level.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
The biggest difference between last season's Bucks and this season's Bucks: Head coach Mike Budenholzer.

Kidd out, "Bud" in.

And Giannis really blossomed under Budenholzer's care.

Listen to Giannis and underrated teammate Khris Middleton talk and they sound just like Mike Budenholzer.

Shades of the Spurs when Tony Parker and Tim Duncan sounded just like Gregg Popovich.

Jason Kidd was 139-152 in the regular season and 4-8 in the postseason as head coach of Giannis and the Bucks.
 

kane

EOG master
As a Celtics fan I hope you're right about the outcome of the series, but I think you're underestimating how good Milwaukee is, and there's no way Boston is the chalk, I'm thinking Milw -240 Bost +200, or somewhere in that range

I nailed the opening price, looks like Milwaukee has taken some early money, series up to -270
 

Foresthill

EOG Addicted
Is the hockey postseason exciting or the regular season a complete and total bore?

That's a false analysis. The post season being the best is not dependent on the regular season being a bore (in your opinion).

For the reasons why the hockey post season is the best, see post #20.
 

Bushay

NHL Expert
Good points, Foresthill.

Is the hockey postseason exciting or the regular season a complete and total bore?

No shootouts in the postseason.

That helps the excitement level.
The last time I wrote about the NHL I predicted Las Vegas sports fans would largely ignore the Golden Knights in their inaugural season.

Enough said.
John. Have you ever been to an NHL playoff game? The buzz in those buildings is incredible. You’re no spring chicken and a sports fan all your life so I’m going to assume yes. If not, get your rear end down to one soon. Sit with Dink sometime. I can promise you you’ll come away a new fan. Hockey is the worst sport ever to watch on your tv. And sitting in the upper bowl of a game is almost as bad. Get yourself down there in the first 20 rows. You’ll have a whole new perspective after that.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Sat in the upper bowl of T-Mobile Arena for an NHL game between the Vegas Golden Knights and Chicago Blackhawks last year with BLUELINE.

I was checking my phone most of the night for college hoop scores.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
John. Have you ever been to an NHL playoff game? The buzz in those buildings is incredible. You’re no spring chicken and a sports fan all your life so I’m going to assume yes. If not, get your rear end down to one soon. Sit with Dink sometime. I can promise you you’ll come away a new fan. Hockey is the worst sport ever to watch on your tv. And sitting in the upper bowl of a game is almost as bad. Get yourself down there in the first 20 rows. You’ll have a whole new perspective after that.

BINGO! Having been to my fair share of SCP games there is no way to accurately describe what it is like. You feel the tension and atmosphere the second you walk into the building. The excitement and energy in the building is awesome. I went to 2003 CF G4 that went to OT at 0-0. We thoughts we might be there forever but about 5 minutes in a goal was scored. And that is the great thing about NHL OT. It can take 30 seconds, 30 minutes or 60+ minutes. One shot ends it all and that is awesome.
 

Bushay

NHL Expert
BINGO! Having been to my fair share of SCP games there is no way to accurately describe what it is like. You feel the tension and atmosphere the second you walk into the building. The excitement and energy in the building is awesome. I went to 2003 CF G4 that went to OT at 0-0. We thoughts we might be there forever but about 5 minutes in a goal was scored. And that is the great thing about NHL OT. It can take 30 seconds, 30 minutes or 60+ minutes. One shot ends it all and that is awesome.
islanders and Caps played one year till like 2 in the morning
 

kane

EOG master
islanders and Caps played one year till like 2 in the morning

I remember that game, I watched the whole thing, I think it went 4 or 5 OT's and if memory serves Pat LaFontaine scored the game winner, I was a huge Islander fan back in the day
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
You reap what you sow.

Fans who invest all season long in the NHL receive a huge payout when the Stanley Cup playoffs arrive.
 
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