My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
More football games are lost than won.

Future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Tom Brady takes it one step further when he claims 90% of all NFL games are lost, not won.

Turnovers, penalties and other self-inflicted wounds like suspect play calls, questionable audibles and poor sideline decisions (game management/clock management) sabotage a team's chance at victory.

Interestingly, managing a football game is a lot like managing a gambling portfolio.

You must first stop losing before you start winning.

Foolish decisions when making selections, assessing performance levels, sizing your bets, choosing your markets, or reacting to adversity or even prosperity cause problems for sports bettors everywhere.

The inexperienced bettor is more susceptible to committing a rookie mistake than the skilled sports bettor.

Same is true for the college football player or college football coach compared to their professional counterparts.

Take, for example, last Saturday's first two FBS games of the 2019 college football season.

You've heard the expression, "Neither team deserved to lose the game."

The phrase is often invoked when two teams compete in a close, hard-fought game played at a high level.

In Week Zero of the 2019 college football season, the opposite happened.

None of the four teams involved on the first Saturday of the season deserved to win.

Florida, Miami (Florida), Arizona and Hawaii set the college game back 150 years to its birth year of 1869.

The countless mistakes made the two games difficult to watch.

Football purists love to watch clean games where silly decisions are kept to a minimum and unforced errors are nearly non-existent.

It wasn't so much which coach or quarterback would help their team the most, but rather which coach or quarterback would hinder their team the least.

Florida was -3 in turnover margin and gained less than two yards per rushing attempt, yet still beat Miami by four points, 24-20.

Don't credit Florida for winning the game; blame Miami for losing it.

Florida's 16 tackles for losses, including 10 sacks, is a testament to the team's defensive front seven and demotes Miami's struggling offensive line which failed miserably in trying to protect a freshman quarterback.

Pressuring a college football quarterback is the primary source of game-changing miscues.

Quarterbacks on overmatched college teams make more mistakes than NFL signal-callers when faced with 2nd-and-long or 3rd-and-long situations.

Most inexperienced quarterbacks do not perform well when their team plays behind the chains or falls behind a realistic down-and-distance schedule (1st-and-10, 2nd-and-5, 3rd-and-1).

Miami finished the game 2-for-15 on third and fourth downs, a damning stat for a team's offense and one that puts its defense in a precarious, if not perilous, position.

Unlike the game in Orlando, defense was optional in the nightcap of last Saturday's football doubleheader.

The game between Arizona and Hawaii promised to be a shootout -- the total closed 71 at Westgate, a full 25 points higher than the first game -- and it delivered on the promise.

Hawaii defeated Arizona, 45-38, in a game that featured a double-digit home underdog winning outright despite losing the turnover battle by four.

Highly unusual for a Group of Five team to beat a Power 5 squad with a turnover margin of -4.

Hawaii starting quarterback Cole McDonald (four interceptions) was benched late in the third quarter in favor of former Hawaiian high school star Chevan Cordeiro, a redshirt freshman who rallied his team to victory.

The starting status of gunslinger McDonald against visiting Oregon State (September 7) is very much in doubt.

Cordeiro is solid, not spectacular, but seems like the safer play because McDonald offers a much wider range of outcomes.

There were a total of 29 "chunk plays" (15 for Arizona and 14 for Hawaii) in last Saturday's game on the island.

Chunk plays are defined as pass plays of 15 yards or more or run plays of 10 yards or more.

This handicapper was not involved in either game, but I watched every play of both games.

I learned more about the four football programs in eight hours than I would have learned by studying the teams over the previous eight months.

Besides, I trust what I see more than what I read, especially from biased fans on Internet blogs or stale preseason magazines.

Optimism reigns in a college football offseason where every team is undefeated and the ultimate goal is a national title.

And where athletes have added 10-15 pounds (muscle, of course) and picked up significantly more speed and explosion.

Do realistic expectations ever matter to college football programs?

Case in point, Illinois head coach Lovie Smith oversees a football program that is 9-27 over the past three seasons and a pathetic 4-23 in conference action.

Two of the four conference victories came against Rutgers during seasons in which the Scarlet Knights went a combined 0-18 in Big Ten play.

Players on the Illini football team disregard both past performances and future predictions (2019 regular-season win total for Illinois is 3.5 wins) when competing during fall camp.

Instead, Illinois breaks every huddle with a three-word battle cry that makes even the most optimistic observer chuckle.

Please hold your laughter when hearing members of the Fighting Illini football team holler, "BIG TEN CHAMPS!"
 
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Biff41

EOG Dedicated
News note: Truck and trailer just crashed on the road to Vegas.

Eleven miles north of Baker.

LA traffic into Vegas is #!%/ed.
 
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railbird

EOG Master
I predict McDonald and Cordeiro will both play in most Hawaii games, they have done it like that over the last 10 years at Hawaii.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I predict McDonald and Cordeiro will both play in most Hawaii games, they have done it like that over the last 10 years at Hawaii.

Hmmm...

Quarterbacks Timmy Chang and Colt Brennan did not share time with anyone unless you count blowout victories.

But you could be right here, Birdie.

McDonald as the starter and Cordeiro as the closer?

Seemed to work against Arizona.

Combine the two skill sets of McDonald and Cordeiro and you probably have one solid FBS quarterback.
 
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winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
News note: Truck and trailer just crashed on the road to Vegas.

Eleven miles north of Baker.

LA traffic into Vegas is #!%/ed.

ANYONE leaving Vegas that late deserves to be FFFFFFFFFFFFFF'd. You gotta leave no later than 8A

Although starting next season, or maybe 2021, the 15 from Vegas-LA will be very busy on a handful, or so, or Sundays between Sept-Dec with Raiders' fans driving home after the game
 
ANYONE leaving Vegas that late deserves to be FFFFFFFFFFFFFF'd. You gotta leave no later than 8A

Although starting next season, or maybe 2021, the 15 from Vegas-LA will be very busy on a handful, or so, or Sundays between Sept-Dec with Raiders' fans driving home after the game

I thought one of the justifications for building the stadium using Clark County taxpayer money was those Raiders' losers, excuse me "fans", would stay an extra night so the city would see thousands of extra occupants on Sunday nights :rolleyes:
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Las Vegas should not have recruited the Oakland Raiders to the city, but rather the Monday Night Football franchise.

That would guarantee a four-day weekend in Las Vegas.
 

railbird

EOG Master
ANYONE leaving Vegas that late deserves to be FFFFFFFFFFFFFF'd. You gotta leave no later than 8A

Although starting next season, or maybe 2021, the 15 from Vegas-LA will be very busy on a handful, or so, or Sundays between Sept-Dec with Raiders' fans driving home after the game
1992 you could show up curbside at LAX and southwest had a plane to Mccarron every half hr for 49 bucks 1 way and show up 15 mins before takeoff.. I used them often. now its a 3hr pat down and 249 to fly 1 way
 

ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
1992 you could show up curbside at LAX and southwest had a plane to Mccarron every half hr for 49 bucks 1 way and show up 15 mins before takeoff.. I used them often. now its a 3hr pat down and 249 to fly 1 way

https://mobile.southwest.com/air/booking/shopping/adult/outbound/results

You can get on Southwest flight 384 from LAX to LAS at 4:10 this afternoon (8/26) for $85. Three more flights afterward for the same price if that one doesn’t work for you.

Adjusted for inflation, that’s probably around $49 in 1992 dollars.

Oh, and for what it’s worth, I would pat you down for 3 hours too before I let you on an airplane.

EDIT: Link doesn’t work but fill in the fields and you’ll see it.

EDIT #2: also all kind of flights available on Spirit, Alaska, United, American, and Delta today ranging from $68-$84. Literally 18 flights today in that price range by my count. Add the southwest flights and that’s 22 flights in a 14 hour time frame, or... (wait for it!!!)

One every 38 minutes!!!
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Thanks for sharing, EJD.

EOG contributor ChiTownJoe told me about CheapOAir.com a few years ago and I've been using it ever since.
 

Almost Allright

GO Bucks!!!
https://mobile.southwest.com/air/booking/shopping/adult/outbound/results

You can get on Southwest flight 384 from LAX to LAS at 4:10 this afternoon (8/26) for $85. Three more flights afterward for the same price if that one doesn’t work for you.

Adjusted for inflation, that’s probably around $49 in 1992 dollars.

Oh, and for what it’s worth, I would pat you down for 3 hours too before I let you on an airplane.

EDIT: Link doesn’t work but fill in the fields and you’ll see it.

EDIT #2: also all kind of flights available on Spirit, Alaska, United, American, and Delta today ranging from $68-$84. Literally 18 flights today in that price range by my count. Add the southwest flights and that’s 22 flights in a 14 hour time frame, or... (wait for it!!!)

One every 38 minutes!!!


So Rail was talking out of his ass? Go figure.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
1992 you could show up curbside at LAX and southwest had a plane to Mccarron every half hr for 49 bucks 1 way and show up 15 mins before takeoff.. I used them often. now its a 3hr pat down and 249 to fly 1 way

100% TRUE story

From 1989-91 I was at KTLA-TV. The news aired (and sill does) at 10P meaning it was over at 11P. On many Friday's the Sports guy, Stu Nahan (Rocky/Fast Times) would take off the second the show ended. He would get to LAX, valet park his car and get thru security in time to catch a Midnight flight to Vegas, get there about 1A, go to the casinos where he would be until about 9A playing the $500 slots and fly home

As far as Raiders' fans spending a night (or more) in Vegas then coming home.........I am sure many will do that. But I am also sure those in the SoCal area will drive to/from the game Sunday and spend ZERO nights there

Once the new stadium is up........Monday and Sunday Night Football will be there and there is a 100% chance there is a Super Bowl there on a somewhat regular basis - along with the Rams new place, too.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I recently visited the new stadium in Inglewood where Hollywood Park once stood and the Great Western Forum still stands.

Great to see the intersection near the stadium labeled Kareem Court and Pincay Drive.
 

Bucky

EOG Dedicated
You guys are on a roll today! LOL!

More football games are lost than are won is interesting in the autopsy or post mortem. I just do not think you can coach or play that way to win. It would be easy to fill up a roster that never fumbles, throws an interception, gets a holding penalty, gets a pass interference. They would also go 0-16. A player cannot play if he has to worry about one mistake and the coach will bench him.
 
100% TRUE story

From 1989-91 I was at KTLA-TV. The news aired (and sill does) at 10P meaning it was over at 11P. On many Friday's the Sports guy, Stu Nahan (Rocky/Fast Times) would take off the second the show ended. He would get to LAX, valet park his car and get thru security in time to catch a Midnight flight to Vegas, get there about 1A, go to the casinos where he would be until about 9A playing the $500 slots and fly home

As far as Raiders' fans spending a night (or more) in Vegas then coming home.........I am sure many will do that. But I am also sure those in the SoCal area will drive to/from the game Sunday and spend ZERO nights there

Once the new stadium is up........Monday and Sunday Night Football will be there and there is a 100% chance there is a Super Bowl there on a somewhat regular basis - along with the Rams new place, too.

Damn I remember Stu very well. Wasn't he at KNBC too, before Fred Roggin replaced him? Playing $500 slots, the guy must have made some good money from his movie roles.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
You guys are on a roll today! LOL!

More football games are lost than are won is interesting in the autopsy or post mortem. I just do not think you can coach or play that way to win. It would be easy to fill up a roster that never fumbles, throws an interception, gets a holding penalty, gets a pass interference. They would also go 0-16. A player cannot play if he has to worry about one mistake and the coach will bench him.

I rarely disagree with Bucky but here's a good spot.

Most double-digit underdogs in football and basketball should play to NOT lose.

Shorten the game by working the clock and try to give yourself a chance to win in the fourth quarter.

I love teams and coaches who outfox the big favorite with superior strategy.

They make for great betting opportunities.

On the flipside, heavy favorites that play carefully or cautiously are terrible bets.

Think of the NFL teams that need to win to make the playoffs in Week 17 and they are often times life-and-death to win, let alone cover.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Damn I remember Stu very well. Wasn't he at KNBC too, before Fred Roggin replaced him? Playing $500 slots, the guy must have made some good money from his movie roles.

I sorta asked him about it and he said he got paid very well to do those movies.

Stu was awesome. He would come in on Friday and treat us to Penguins frozen yogurt OR Baskin Robbins as long as we didn't tel his wife. He was as nice as it got and he ALWAYS picked up the check for stuff. NO ONE could tell stories like Stu. Most of them involved words that had plenty of words starting with "F"

He loved Diet Cokes and Popcorn so at his funeral he had plenty of those available which I think is awesome and the way it should be done. My father loves Snickerdoodles, Orange Juice and other stuff and when he passes we will have all of those at his "Celebration of Life"
 
Do realistic expectations ever matter to college football programs?

Case in point, Illinois football head coach Lovie Smith oversees a football program that is 9-27 over the past three seasons and a pathetic 4-23 in conference action.

Two of the four conference victories came against Rutgers during seasons in which the Scarlet Knights went a combined 0-18 in Big Ten play.

Players on the Illini football team disregard both past performances and future predictions (2019 regular-season win total for Illinois is 3.5 wins) when competing during fall camp.

Instead, Illinois breaks every huddle with a three-word battle cry that makes even the most optimistic observer chuckle.

Please hold your laughter when hearing members of the Fighting Illini football team holler, "BIG TEN CHAMPS!"

LOL
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Did you learn you have 4 solid fades for this season?


Don't want to overreact but I'd fade those four teams, not follow them.

The biggest positive note: Florida's pass rush was impressive.

Though it's hard to credit offensive-minded head coach Dan Mullen for Florida's defense.

And Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks looked suspect....again.

Tall quarterbacks usually look suspect outside the pocket.

Florida (-3) and Hawaii (-4) lost the turnover differential yet still won.

That's a big negative for Miami and Arizona.
 

Biff41

EOG Dedicated
ANYONE leaving Vegas that late deserves to be FFFFFFFFFFFFFF'd. You gotta leave no later than 8A

Although starting next season, or maybe 2021, the 15 from Vegas-LA will be very busy on a handful, or so, or Sundays between Sept-Dec with Raiders' fans driving home after the game
Politicos should have built a supertrain between LA and Vegas years ago.
 

SlipperyPete

EOG Dedicated
MNF to Vegas?

Its a great idea.

How come no one came up with it before?

Because teams dont wanna give up home games

Pats and Cowboys only go to London, WHEN they are the visiting teams.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Politicos should have built a supertrain between LA and Vegas years ago.

Agree but here is the problem. People want a train that will go from LA-Vegas in something like 2-ish hours. But then all cities in between want it stopping n their area. I could see stopping in Anaheim but then places like Rancho Cucamonga, Barstow, Baker, Primm all want it stopping at their place.............yet have the trip take 2-ish hours which is just not possible

There was talk of a train from Vegas-Victorville. Seriously. That would have been the all-time dumbest idea ever. So you take the train from Vegas to Victorville. THEN WHAT! How you supposed to get from Victorville to LA/OC? Rent a car? If so why rent one in Victorville where you know the car companies got ya by the "short curly ones?" Or better yet for someone like me, drive to Victorville then take the train to Vegas? Thankfully this moronic idea never came to pass
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
A better idea may be Thursday Night Football with each team giving up one home game every two seasons and creating a Vegas Night for season ticketholders.
 

waco

EOG Dedicated
I took a ride to Vegs today to get some college props in at the Westgate. I got there at 1:30 and there wasn't 20 people in the sportsbook!! There were more workers at the windows than bettors!!
 

waco

EOG Dedicated
I talked to a local about those $250 seats at Caesars to watch football. He said Caesars gives them to the high rollers for free!! He said just like the big boxing matches in Vegas.. He said the casinos give the high rollers free tix just to get them to Vegas!!
 
I talked to a local about those $250 seats at Caesars to watch football. He said Caesars gives them to the high rollers for free!! He said just like the big boxing matches in Vegas.. He said the casinos give the high rollers free tix just to get them to Vegas!!

You are shocked by this? Of course that's the whole point of the charge seats. They keep them available for bigger players and when they give them away they remind the big players they are worth $250. Otherwise they have a problem because bigger sports players really aren't worth anything if they aren't also playing tables or slots. Giving them VIP access costs almost nothing but keeps from having to give them something truly valuable like free food or show tickets they could sell
 

unluckysob

EOG Dedicated
1992 you could show up curbside at LAX and southwest had a plane to Mccarron every half hr for 49 bucks 1 way and show up 15 mins before takeoff.. I used them often. now its a 3hr pat down and 249 to fly 1 way
1992 you could show up curbside at LAX and southwest had a plane to Mccarron every half hr for 49 bucks 1 way and show up 15 mins before takeoff.. I used them often. now its a 3hr pat down and 249 to fly 1 way
My favorite airline from Atlanta used to be Eastern. I could buy a round trip ticket to Vegas with an open return. Sometimes I stayed 3 days, sometimes 3 weeks. 1980s.
 
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