My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Greetings today from San Diego where the nearby Del Mar Thoroughbred Club will present the final day of its 31-day summer meet.

I first attended the races at Del Mar in 1985.

It was love at first sight.

And the sounds were pretty good, too.

Track announcer Trevor Denman's prescient race calls, trumpeter Les Kepics' creative renditions of "Call To The Post" and the late Bing Crosby's scratchy recording of "Where the Turf Meets the Surf" serve as the soundtrack for Del Mar's "cool as ever" meet.

The Pacific Ocean provides the perfect setting for horse racing while California girls in short dresses add even more beauty to the backdrop.

For enthusiasts interested in West Coast horse racing, summer begins and ends every year at Del Mar.

Del Mar historically presents the Oceanside Stakes for turf runners on Opening Day and saves the prestigious Grade I Del Mar Futurity for its closing-day feature.

The Del Mar Futurity has produced four Kentucky Derby champions, including 2015 Triple Crown hero American Pharoah.

Tomy Lee (1958), Gato Del Sol (1982) and Silver Charm (1997) are the other Futurity winners to achieve Derby glory.

Silver Charm's victory in the Del Mar Futurity served as a coming-out party for trainer Bob Baffert.

Baffert has won Del Mar's richest race for two-year-olds a record 14 times.

While some horse racing fans adore the affable Baffert and marvel at his unparalleled accomplishments, a vast majority of the racing community -- especially fellow horsemen, some of whom campaign for a drug-free sport -- are tired of Baffert's total disregard for the rule book.

Horses under the care of the controversial conditioner have failed more than 30 drug tests over the past 30 years.

The most recent positive test involves 2021 Derby winner Medina Spirit, whose victory under suspicious circumstances is being contested in several courthouses.

Unfortunately, horse racing has a history of looking the other way in such matters.

A similar situation happened in Major League Baseball during the Steroid Era in the late 1990's and early 2000's.

Interestingly, Baffert shares the same initials (B.B.) with another sports figure whose incredible achievements have been stained by performance-enhancing drugs.

Feel free to consider Bob Baffert horse racing's version of Barry Bonds.


**********


I'll bring my binoculars to the seaside oval today and focus on the day's final six races.

After all, a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 featuring a carryover pool of more than $694,000 is calling my name.

The Labor Day pool, with value-seeking horseplayers chasing added money, could exceed $4 million.

That's a lot of 20-cent combinations.

The added money, accrued over the past nine racing days, will nearly negate the onerous 23.68% takeout.

In essence, horseplayers will be participating in a one-day, six-race handicapping contest with a 100% payback.

Mandatory payout days are nirvana for horseplayers seeking to beat one of the toughest gambling games around.

I'll key all combinations in the Rainbow 6 with my top selection in the Del Mar Futurity, the ninth race scheduled with a post time of 5:30 p.m. PT.

I prefer #5 Murray listed at odds of 2/1 over fellow Baffert-trainee Pinehurst, Asmussen-shipper American Xperiment and Best Pal winner Pappacap.

Murray, in the words of Trevor Denman, "never looked like losing" in his debut for trainer Bob Baffert.

His Beyer Speed Figure of 82 was accomplished with the greatest of ease.

Stablemate Pinehurst posted an 86 Beyer Speed Figure when winning his debut, but he was not as visually impressive as Murray.

In figure handicapping, the numbers don't always tell the whole story.

For those who like to look beyond the numbers, it's not always how fast a horse ran, but rather how a horse ran fast.

DEL MAR -- NINTH RACE -- #5 MURRAY



**********


I was in the Ryan Field stands this past Friday night for the Big Ten football game between Michigan State and Northwestern.

If you bet NU -3, you never got a run for your money.

The Spartans scored on their first play from scrimmage, a 75-yard touchdown run down the left sideline from Kenneth Walker III.

The early-game fireworks were a sign of things to come.

The quick score in the first 13 seconds of the game was the first of four touchdowns for Walker III, a transfer from Wake Forest who finished with 264 yards from 23 carries.

MSU bolstered its roster this past offseason with several impressive acquisitions from the ever-growing transfer portal.

The 'Cats, on the other hand, lost two stalwart linebackers (Patty Fisher and Blake Gallagher) to graduation and a cornerback (Greg Newsome II) to the first round of the NFL Draft.

Northwestern returned only 39% of its total production from the previous season, ranking second-to-last (BYU) among all 127 FBS programs.

What's more, NU was playing its first game without longtime defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz, who retired after last season's emotional Citrus Bowl victory over Auburn.

An under-the-radar departure was Cody Cejda, the team's Director of Football Operations and Strategy, who will be plying his trade this season in the NFL with Brandon Staley and the Los Angeles Chargers.

The betting marketplace adjusted wildly for all these losses because NU went from a significant 12.5-point road favorite over MSU in 2020 to only a 3-point home favorite this year.

By my count, that's a swing of more than 14 points in less nine months.

The lesson learned: The betting marketplace pointed us in the right direction, but the point spread adjustment did not go far enough.

Northwestern appeared to be a bargain as a short home favorite in the season opener, but they were priced low for a reason.

The combination of NU's losses and MSU's gains made for a quiet home crowd last Friday night.

If the two teams played again this Saturday -- if the game were run right back, so to speak -- I'd expect SPARTY to assume the favorite's role.
 
Last edited:

blueline

EOG Master
going forward there is a significant difference comparing 4.5f , 5f, 5.5, and 6f " numbers

an "84" going 5.5 is significantly better than an "84" going 5f

it's much less significant with veteran , multiple winners etc
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Early first post today is 1:30 p.m., not the traditional 2 p.m. start.

Management did not want to conduct the tenth race in the dark.
 

O'Royken

EOG Dedicated
Bob Baffert. Too big to bring down. Many of his owners would take their money and go home. In Bob they trust and no one else.
 

blueline

EOG Master
think the 5 in the 7th will be cranked.....not a maiden race but if it wins could have a decent day
only have driven past DMR...never been yet...some day
 

howid

EOG Dedicated
solid as always jk... just curious, friday in chicago, today san diego... flying or driving?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
going forward there is a significant difference comparing 4.5f , 5f, 5.5, and 6f " numbers

an "84" going 5.5 is significantly better than an "84" going 5f

it's much less significant with veteran , multiple winners etc

Thanks for the lesson.

Murray is getting bet to the exclusion of others.

Jon White with a swing-and-a-miss on the 2/1 morning-line price.
 

blueline

EOG Master
Watching on phone looked like the chalk ran about 1/2 mile...maybe needs lasix

Betting these horses w/out lasix running past 5.5 furlongs is russian roulette
 

Heim

EOG Master
Greatest memory at Del Mar was hanging out with Jerry Buss at the clubhouse bar opening day when Beyer figs were actually relevant.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Watching on phone looked like the chalk ran about 1/2 mile...maybe needs lasix

Betting these horses w/out lasix running past 5.5 furlongs is russian roulette


Never a good thing when "Russian roulette" gets mentioned in a gambling conversation.
 
Greatest memory at Del Mar was hanging out with Jerry Buss at the clubhouse bar opening day when Beyer figs were actually relevant.
Not exactly in this category, but one thing I won't ever forget or unsee was a dude getting a blow job in a back corner of the Del Mar clubhouse when I was 16. To top it off, he did a line of coke while the hag was going at it. He must be some kind of VIP, security surely had to know what was happening and ignoring it. That was the last time I was in the clubhouse there. Got in because my dad's horse betting friend was half owner of a horse, first race of the day. We all got fired up, I remember he was the 5/2 betting favorite. Ran in front and looked great, but of course ran out of gas and finished last.

Everyone's got some memories of that place, guess mine are just a bit different. Been awhile since I went, wasn't the same after my dad passed. He wanted to be out there 3 days every Labor Day weekend.
 
"...while the hag was going at it."

WildBill has a way with words.
Hey Shrink paid me big money back in the day for my skills!

And I didn't see a face, but I have to guess only a drunk hag would gladly do it in public like that. A classy lady in a dress and a big hat as you normally see at Del Mar? Not in a million years.
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
JK....wish I knew you were at the NW / MSU game, Spartan Mike was there with a lot of our buddies....I had a wedding that weekend and couldn't go.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
JK....wish I knew you were at the NW / MSU game, Spartan Mike was there with a lot of our buddies....I had a wedding that weekend and couldn't go.

Would have been good to see Spartan Mike.

Went on the spur of the moment.

I'll be at the Las Vegas Aces game Monday afternoon at Michelob Ultra Arena.

The WNBA game features a noon start because Mark Davis' other team, the Raiders, host the Ravens Monday night (5:15 p.m. PT) at Allegiant Stadium.
 
Top