What happens in the NFL preseason, stays in the NFL preseason.
Drawing inferences from three preseason games in August and projecting those thoughts on a team's 17-game regular season schedule is daring, at best, and destructive, at worst.
The 2008 Detroit Lions and 2017 Cleveland Browns serve as cautionary tales.
The infamous Lions went 0-16 in the regular season after a perfect 4-0 mark in the preseason.
Nine years later, the miserable Browns also went 0-16 in the regular season after a perfect 4-0 mark in the preseason.
You can't make it up.
Detroit's embattled head coach Rod Marinelli, who made his reputation as a defensive wiz, watched his sorry team surrender more than 32 points per game in the 2008 regular season.
How did Marinelli's defense fare in the preseason?
It surrendered only eight points per game, allowing a pair of touchdowns in 16 quarters of play.
The NFL preseason can be an illusion, a complete mirage.
The silver lining for Detroit's winless season was the team's acquisition of Matthew Stafford with the #1 overall pick in the subsequent NFL Draft.
Stafford toiled in Detroit for 12 challenging seasons before striking gold with a Super Bowl win this past February in Los Angeles.
Cleveland outscored its four preseason opponents in 2017 by a combined score of 68-29.
And then the real season began.
The Browns were outscored during the regular season, 410-234.
The team's preseason success did not translate to the regular season.
The Browns scored the fewest points in the league in 2017.
Head coach Hue Jackson, best known for his work on the offensive side of the ball, somehow survived his winless season in Cleveland, but only for eight more games the following season.
Jackson now finds himself leading Grambling State University, the most high-profile program among the 21 historically black colleges and universities (HBCU) that field football teams in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS).
Unlike Stafford in Detroit, Cleveland's draft prize in 2018 spent only four seasons with the Browns.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield wore out his welcome in Cleveland after underperforming on the field and upsetting players and coaches off the field.
Mayfield exited Cleveland with a won-loss record of 30-31 in the regular season and postseason.
He's a member of the Carolina Panthers this season, battling Sam Darnold for one of 32 coveted starting quarterback jobs in the NFL.
While serious sports handicappers exercise caution when analyzing August football, they also see it as a golden opportunity to procure and process information not represented in a soft market.
The NFL preseason is a season unto itself.
Sober-minded bettors understand the randomness associated with preseason games.
Sophisticated gamblers rarely complain about punt returns for touchdowns, interception returns for touchdowns or daring two-point conversion attempts late in the fourth quarter.
The variance comes with the preseason territory; an occupational hazard, if you will.
The primary goal of preseason games is the health and fitness of key personnel.
The game's outcome is secondary, yet respected sports books still accommodate serious bettors with limits of $5,000 on sides and $2,000 on totals.
A TITANIC PREDICTION.....Play the Tennessee Titans -2.5 (-110) over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Mike Vrabel versus Todd Bowles.
Malik Willis and Logan Woodside versus Kyle Trask and Blaine Gabbert.
These two teams met last year in a Week 2 preseason game at Raymond James Stadium.
Final score: Titans 34 Bucs 3.
Saturday's rematch will be played at Nissan Stadium in Nashville.
If you watched young quarterbacks Malik Willis and Kyle Trask perform last week, then there's only one way to bet this game.
Trask was awful last year against the Titans and he suffered through another subpar performance last Saturday night in a 26-24 home loss against Miami.
With his team leading 14-6, Trask threw an interception deep in his own end, which led to a touchdown just one play later.
Shortly thereafter, Trask fumbled into a scoop-and-score, gifting Miami 14 points in the final minute of the second quarter.
So much for Tom Brady's heir apparent.
Credit Tennessee for a decent road effort last week in Baltimore against John Harbaugh's Ravens, winners of 21 straight preseason games (19-2 against the spread) dating to 2015.
Interesting dynamic for the Titans featuring veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill (age 34) and rookie quarterback Malik Willis (age 23).
Tannehill was held out last week and he's likely to sit out again this week.
Rookie Malik Willis, the former Liberty star, showed flashes of brilliance last week in his professional debut.
Willis was pulled from the game early in the third quarter for running the ball too frequently.
Head coach Mike Vrabel wanted Willis to stand tall in the pocket and pass the ball more often in the preseason opener.
Willis' competitive juices took over and he prematurely fled the pocket to run downfield.
Don't knock him for his youthful exuberance.
Willis finished with five carries for 38 yards and a rushing touchdown.
Logan Woodside likely will replace Willis in the second half.
He performed well last season against the Bucs' backups.
WNBA POSTSEASON.....Top-seeded Las Vegas is clearly the team to beat.
Defending champ Chicago is vulnerable.
Chicago's backcourt (Vandersloot and Quigley) lacks athleticism and the team's aging star (Parker) is unwilling to defend, at times.
Only Kahleah Copper, the reigning WNBA Finals MVP, is an improved version of herself this season for the Sky.
Like Chicago, Connecticut also lacks physical guards to compete against the elite guards (think Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young) of the WNBA.
Third-seeded Connecticut finished a combined 1-6 this season against Las Vegas and Chicago.
Downgrade the Sun.
My strongest opinion: The opening-round series between fourth-seeded Seattle and fifth-seeded Washington could produce the eventual league champion.
Let's grab odds of 6/1 (DraftKings) on Seattle to win the WNBA championship.
Sue Bird winning a title in her 21st and final WNBA season would provide a Hollywood ending.
But that's not the reason for the wager.
I rely on analytical information more than anecdotal evidence to handicap the WNBA.
I'm counting on 27-year-old Breanna Stewart, in the prime of her career, to prove she's the most efficient female hoopster on the planet with Jewel Loyd (age 28) and an emerging Gabby Williams (age 25) to play supporting roles.
Additionally, Seattle's acquisition of veteran Tina Charles in late June helps Stewart defend the post and offers yet another offensive option for one of the deepest teams in the league.
FANDUEL RACING....It's so bad, it's good.
Low-level horse racing in downstate Illinois -- Collinsville, to be precise -- is presented twice a week in the spring and three times a week during the summer months.
The track formerly known as Fairmount Park, only 12 miles from downtown St. Louis, is now named FanDuel Sportsbook and Horseracing, a real mouthful.
FanDuel in late 2020 invested millions of dollars in the 97-year-old racetrack as a way to launch its retail sports book operation in the state of Illinois.
The strategy was brilliant.
Sports bettors in Illinois wagered more than $4.75 billion over the first six months of 2022, placing Illinois in the three-hole behind only gambling-crazy states New York (8.6 billion) and New Jersey (5.8 billion).
FanDuel leads a group of seven sports book licensees in the Land of Lincoln, accounting for exactly one-third of the state's overall handle.
DraftKings (30.6%) completes the cold sportsbook exacta followed by BetRivers (9.9%), PointsBet (8.7%), BetMGM (6.2%), Barstool (5.9%) and Caesars (5.4%).
Back to the old racetrack in southern Illinois where I'll be trackside to watch tomorrow's seven-race card.
Track announcer Keith Nelson calls the action from high atop the dilapidated grandstand.
His goofy commentary and inaccurate calls match the small-time nature of the racing scene.
More than 50 years ago, popular track announcer Dave Johnson called the races at then-Fairmount Park before heading to Florida and later New York and New Jersey.
Keith Nelson is no Dave Johnson.
Nelson embarrassed himself last Friday when in the night's third race he described the actions of jockey Cory Orm aboard three-year-old maiden Cowgirl Frankie.
As the horses turned for home, Orm lifted his whip to encourage his mount's forward progress.
Nelson cried out, "Cowgirl Frankie is given some leather."
Nelson's unvarnished call comes at a time when some racetracks like Laurel Park and Delaware Park limit jockeys to six whip strikes to the hindquarters with no more than two of the six strikes in succession.
Track announcer Keith Nelson, you have a phone call.
It's PETA on Line 1.
The animal-rights activists themselves are looking to apply some leather.
Drawing inferences from three preseason games in August and projecting those thoughts on a team's 17-game regular season schedule is daring, at best, and destructive, at worst.
The 2008 Detroit Lions and 2017 Cleveland Browns serve as cautionary tales.
The infamous Lions went 0-16 in the regular season after a perfect 4-0 mark in the preseason.
Nine years later, the miserable Browns also went 0-16 in the regular season after a perfect 4-0 mark in the preseason.
You can't make it up.
Detroit's embattled head coach Rod Marinelli, who made his reputation as a defensive wiz, watched his sorry team surrender more than 32 points per game in the 2008 regular season.
How did Marinelli's defense fare in the preseason?
It surrendered only eight points per game, allowing a pair of touchdowns in 16 quarters of play.
The NFL preseason can be an illusion, a complete mirage.
The silver lining for Detroit's winless season was the team's acquisition of Matthew Stafford with the #1 overall pick in the subsequent NFL Draft.
Stafford toiled in Detroit for 12 challenging seasons before striking gold with a Super Bowl win this past February in Los Angeles.
Cleveland outscored its four preseason opponents in 2017 by a combined score of 68-29.
And then the real season began.
The Browns were outscored during the regular season, 410-234.
The team's preseason success did not translate to the regular season.
The Browns scored the fewest points in the league in 2017.
Head coach Hue Jackson, best known for his work on the offensive side of the ball, somehow survived his winless season in Cleveland, but only for eight more games the following season.
Jackson now finds himself leading Grambling State University, the most high-profile program among the 21 historically black colleges and universities (HBCU) that field football teams in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS).
Unlike Stafford in Detroit, Cleveland's draft prize in 2018 spent only four seasons with the Browns.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield wore out his welcome in Cleveland after underperforming on the field and upsetting players and coaches off the field.
Mayfield exited Cleveland with a won-loss record of 30-31 in the regular season and postseason.
He's a member of the Carolina Panthers this season, battling Sam Darnold for one of 32 coveted starting quarterback jobs in the NFL.
While serious sports handicappers exercise caution when analyzing August football, they also see it as a golden opportunity to procure and process information not represented in a soft market.
The NFL preseason is a season unto itself.
Sober-minded bettors understand the randomness associated with preseason games.
Sophisticated gamblers rarely complain about punt returns for touchdowns, interception returns for touchdowns or daring two-point conversion attempts late in the fourth quarter.
The variance comes with the preseason territory; an occupational hazard, if you will.
The primary goal of preseason games is the health and fitness of key personnel.
The game's outcome is secondary, yet respected sports books still accommodate serious bettors with limits of $5,000 on sides and $2,000 on totals.
A TITANIC PREDICTION.....Play the Tennessee Titans -2.5 (-110) over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Mike Vrabel versus Todd Bowles.
Malik Willis and Logan Woodside versus Kyle Trask and Blaine Gabbert.
These two teams met last year in a Week 2 preseason game at Raymond James Stadium.
Final score: Titans 34 Bucs 3.
Saturday's rematch will be played at Nissan Stadium in Nashville.
If you watched young quarterbacks Malik Willis and Kyle Trask perform last week, then there's only one way to bet this game.
Trask was awful last year against the Titans and he suffered through another subpar performance last Saturday night in a 26-24 home loss against Miami.
With his team leading 14-6, Trask threw an interception deep in his own end, which led to a touchdown just one play later.
Shortly thereafter, Trask fumbled into a scoop-and-score, gifting Miami 14 points in the final minute of the second quarter.
So much for Tom Brady's heir apparent.
Credit Tennessee for a decent road effort last week in Baltimore against John Harbaugh's Ravens, winners of 21 straight preseason games (19-2 against the spread) dating to 2015.
Interesting dynamic for the Titans featuring veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill (age 34) and rookie quarterback Malik Willis (age 23).
Tannehill was held out last week and he's likely to sit out again this week.
Rookie Malik Willis, the former Liberty star, showed flashes of brilliance last week in his professional debut.
Willis was pulled from the game early in the third quarter for running the ball too frequently.
Head coach Mike Vrabel wanted Willis to stand tall in the pocket and pass the ball more often in the preseason opener.
Willis' competitive juices took over and he prematurely fled the pocket to run downfield.
Don't knock him for his youthful exuberance.
Willis finished with five carries for 38 yards and a rushing touchdown.
Logan Woodside likely will replace Willis in the second half.
He performed well last season against the Bucs' backups.
WNBA POSTSEASON.....Top-seeded Las Vegas is clearly the team to beat.
Defending champ Chicago is vulnerable.
Chicago's backcourt (Vandersloot and Quigley) lacks athleticism and the team's aging star (Parker) is unwilling to defend, at times.
Only Kahleah Copper, the reigning WNBA Finals MVP, is an improved version of herself this season for the Sky.
Like Chicago, Connecticut also lacks physical guards to compete against the elite guards (think Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young) of the WNBA.
Third-seeded Connecticut finished a combined 1-6 this season against Las Vegas and Chicago.
Downgrade the Sun.
My strongest opinion: The opening-round series between fourth-seeded Seattle and fifth-seeded Washington could produce the eventual league champion.
Let's grab odds of 6/1 (DraftKings) on Seattle to win the WNBA championship.
Sue Bird winning a title in her 21st and final WNBA season would provide a Hollywood ending.
But that's not the reason for the wager.
I rely on analytical information more than anecdotal evidence to handicap the WNBA.
I'm counting on 27-year-old Breanna Stewart, in the prime of her career, to prove she's the most efficient female hoopster on the planet with Jewel Loyd (age 28) and an emerging Gabby Williams (age 25) to play supporting roles.
Additionally, Seattle's acquisition of veteran Tina Charles in late June helps Stewart defend the post and offers yet another offensive option for one of the deepest teams in the league.
FANDUEL RACING....It's so bad, it's good.
Low-level horse racing in downstate Illinois -- Collinsville, to be precise -- is presented twice a week in the spring and three times a week during the summer months.
The track formerly known as Fairmount Park, only 12 miles from downtown St. Louis, is now named FanDuel Sportsbook and Horseracing, a real mouthful.
FanDuel in late 2020 invested millions of dollars in the 97-year-old racetrack as a way to launch its retail sports book operation in the state of Illinois.
The strategy was brilliant.
Sports bettors in Illinois wagered more than $4.75 billion over the first six months of 2022, placing Illinois in the three-hole behind only gambling-crazy states New York (8.6 billion) and New Jersey (5.8 billion).
FanDuel leads a group of seven sports book licensees in the Land of Lincoln, accounting for exactly one-third of the state's overall handle.
DraftKings (30.6%) completes the cold sportsbook exacta followed by BetRivers (9.9%), PointsBet (8.7%), BetMGM (6.2%), Barstool (5.9%) and Caesars (5.4%).
Back to the old racetrack in southern Illinois where I'll be trackside to watch tomorrow's seven-race card.
Track announcer Keith Nelson calls the action from high atop the dilapidated grandstand.
His goofy commentary and inaccurate calls match the small-time nature of the racing scene.
More than 50 years ago, popular track announcer Dave Johnson called the races at then-Fairmount Park before heading to Florida and later New York and New Jersey.
Keith Nelson is no Dave Johnson.
Nelson embarrassed himself last Friday when in the night's third race he described the actions of jockey Cory Orm aboard three-year-old maiden Cowgirl Frankie.
As the horses turned for home, Orm lifted his whip to encourage his mount's forward progress.
Nelson cried out, "Cowgirl Frankie is given some leather."
Nelson's unvarnished call comes at a time when some racetracks like Laurel Park and Delaware Park limit jockeys to six whip strikes to the hindquarters with no more than two of the six strikes in succession.
Track announcer Keith Nelson, you have a phone call.
It's PETA on Line 1.
The animal-rights activists themselves are looking to apply some leather.
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