NBA for opening week
- Thread starter ATX
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EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Nice call on the Clips X, if they were all that easy.
Nice call on the Clips X, if they were all that easy.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
it's rare for the Clippers to put 2 solid games together consecutively. 3? I thought it should be more like Charlotte -3.5 min. I had Milwaukee being favored...such a drastic difference had to hit it hard. I had Phx a little above what it landed, it's hard to put a ton on PHX unders. looking ahead that looks like the end to fairly long string of really bad numbers. No way should Toronto be favored on the road, but not sure how sure I can be about Min with that big injury. I like the SA/NJ over, but I need to look at it some more, and SA overs are dicey to begin with. I think Dallas goes over, but need to look at it some more. back to the grind.
it's rare for the Clippers to put 2 solid games together consecutively. 3? I thought it should be more like Charlotte -3.5 min. I had Milwaukee being favored...such a drastic difference had to hit it hard. I had Phx a little above what it landed, it's hard to put a ton on PHX unders. looking ahead that looks like the end to fairly long string of really bad numbers. No way should Toronto be favored on the road, but not sure how sure I can be about Min with that big injury. I like the SA/NJ over, but I need to look at it some more, and SA overs are dicey to begin with. I think Dallas goes over, but need to look at it some more. back to the grind.
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EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
good observations on your behalf...
good observations on your behalf...
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
hoping to regain the 5 for NY. doubtful. Knicks have played the best 3 and 4 of the top 7 in consecutive games.
Minnesota +3 for .8%
discounted for previous meetings, and the injury. teams generally cover in the first game with an injury, but Twolves don't exactly have a lot of depth to cover the need. Same at 2.5, only one 3 left that I see.
hoping to regain the 5 for NY. doubtful. Knicks have played the best 3 and 4 of the top 7 in consecutive games.
Minnesota +3 for .8%
discounted for previous meetings, and the injury. teams generally cover in the first game with an injury, but Twolves don't exactly have a lot of depth to cover the need. Same at 2.5, only one 3 left that I see.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
OKC 1st quarter +4 for .8%
ML +280 for .3%
Lakers are terrible defenders of the 1st. Expect a bit of a letdown after road trip glory. Not sure if they will try to work Lizard King Morrison into the rotation, but if they do maybe a plus. OKC shot 55% last game so I'm opting this against full game. I think we might be getting a full bucket on this, but not too sure b/c OKC is a ?
OKC 1st quarter +4 for .8%
ML +280 for .3%
Lakers are terrible defenders of the 1st. Expect a bit of a letdown after road trip glory. Not sure if they will try to work Lizard King Morrison into the rotation, but if they do maybe a plus. OKC shot 55% last game so I'm opting this against full game. I think we might be getting a full bucket on this, but not too sure b/c OKC is a ?
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EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
stay positive x, you are good dude...
stay positive x, you are good dude...
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
I tend to get conservative on winning streaks, and since the poker break I'm up a staggering amount. I keep records of winning streaks with the expected probability of the next day's expected outcome, and it's computed vs. the margin of victory versus the spread. The good news is that I'm not really catching anything but bad breaks (OT) during this streak, the numbers that have cashed haven't been very close. The narrower the margin the more likely things change to the worse. Typically what happens is the margin of victory begins to narrow usually before the L's come back my way.
Houston under 213 for about 1.1%
but it's possible it moves a little the other way, but most likely not.
I tend to get conservative on winning streaks, and since the poker break I'm up a staggering amount. I keep records of winning streaks with the expected probability of the next day's expected outcome, and it's computed vs. the margin of victory versus the spread. The good news is that I'm not really catching anything but bad breaks (OT) during this streak, the numbers that have cashed haven't been very close. The narrower the margin the more likely things change to the worse. Typically what happens is the margin of victory begins to narrow usually before the L's come back my way.
Houston under 213 for about 1.1%
but it's possible it moves a little the other way, but most likely not.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
NY/LAC under 219
I'm going to think about this some more, but Clippers have gone over this at home but once in November. This is the last game before the break for both. With the Knicks there's always the possibility of 270, but I'm thinking tired legs for this jump shooting team. They shot nearly 55% at state. If the LAC can be counted on for just one of their patented 9 point quarters with a total this high...then again, LAC generally focuses on teams they can beat, and this is one of them. Previous meetings point very firmly to the under here. I love taking the points when the Clippers are favored but with NY on B2B 3rd in 4 and after shooting nearly 55% no way to back the Knicks here.
NY/LAC under 219
I'm going to think about this some more, but Clippers have gone over this at home but once in November. This is the last game before the break for both. With the Knicks there's always the possibility of 270, but I'm thinking tired legs for this jump shooting team. They shot nearly 55% at state. If the LAC can be counted on for just one of their patented 9 point quarters with a total this high...then again, LAC generally focuses on teams they can beat, and this is one of them. Previous meetings point very firmly to the under here. I love taking the points when the Clippers are favored but with NY on B2B 3rd in 4 and after shooting nearly 55% no way to back the Knicks here.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
big lean to Charlotte under, but need to sleep on it.
small lean to Utah/LA under, not sure how much is really there.
Phoenix looks to have a great number, but tough spot after Cavs 2xL.
Years past I fade Denver on the road, but they look to be putting something together, line is begging for Nugget action.
Hard to favor Charlotte by a TD over much of anyone.
SA total looks jokingly low amidst current form, last 6 Spurs have gone over and most not even close. No way they get remotely even action on that total. Just a suspicion that the total will dip a little.
big lean to Charlotte under, but need to sleep on it.
small lean to Utah/LA under, not sure how much is really there.
Phoenix looks to have a great number, but tough spot after Cavs 2xL.
Years past I fade Denver on the road, but they look to be putting something together, line is begging for Nugget action.
Hard to favor Charlotte by a TD over much of anyone.
SA total looks jokingly low amidst current form, last 6 Spurs have gone over and most not even close. No way they get remotely even action on that total. Just a suspicion that the total will dip a little.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
Portland/OKC: OKC sure looks like the right side. couple problems...OKC on B2B, 3rd in 4, and Portland with 2 days rest and 3x revenge. 13 and 14 are somewhat key numbers for Portlands MOV. OKC recent performance looks good on paper but lacks strength. I still think OKC covers and this goes under, but no reason to chase marginal numbers when they let me play 2nd halves.
ATL/DET: was close to pulling the trigger with 4 Hawks. Public is backing Atlanta. Backing a public dog on an opener of +2.5 is not a winning proposition.
Denver/Orlando: similar scenario to Atlanta. Orlando is what the LVSC feels is the right side. This number seems about right. With these two teams and a total this high it is somewhat likely something will open up at the half.
Houston/Sac under 213 for .8%
decided not to put 1.1% b/c Sac is too unpredictable and not sure how much Rox slow down, or if they show up early.
Portland/OKC: OKC sure looks like the right side. couple problems...OKC on B2B, 3rd in 4, and Portland with 2 days rest and 3x revenge. 13 and 14 are somewhat key numbers for Portlands MOV. OKC recent performance looks good on paper but lacks strength. I still think OKC covers and this goes under, but no reason to chase marginal numbers when they let me play 2nd halves.
ATL/DET: was close to pulling the trigger with 4 Hawks. Public is backing Atlanta. Backing a public dog on an opener of +2.5 is not a winning proposition.
Denver/Orlando: similar scenario to Atlanta. Orlando is what the LVSC feels is the right side. This number seems about right. With these two teams and a total this high it is somewhat likely something will open up at the half.
Houston/Sac under 213 for .8%
decided not to put 1.1% b/c Sac is too unpredictable and not sure how much Rox slow down, or if they show up early.
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EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Pile it up today X, I also like the under in the Clippy game.
Pile it up today X, I also like the under in the Clippy game.
Re: NBA for opening week
seems like public is pretty heavy on phenoix and line is moving the other way... i think lebron and the cavs bounce back huge tonight at home...
:cheers
seems like public is pretty heavy on phenoix and line is moving the other way... i think lebron and the cavs bounce back huge tonight at home...
:cheers
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
the public is on Cleveland fairly heavy. the line move is most likely reaction to status of Nash. I'm hearing he may be out. He also didn't sound great on the Patrick show today. A little confusing, but I bought back on Cleveland, just going to vig out b/c if Nash is out or is a small factor PHX really struggles. Every time he has been out I've made a ton off fading Phx and taking the under. I was going to take the under, but I think I'll wait and see what's going on at the half.
the public is on Cleveland fairly heavy. the line move is most likely reaction to status of Nash. I'm hearing he may be out. He also didn't sound great on the Patrick show today. A little confusing, but I bought back on Cleveland, just going to vig out b/c if Nash is out or is a small factor PHX really struggles. Every time he has been out I've made a ton off fading Phx and taking the under. I was going to take the under, but I think I'll wait and see what's going on at the half.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
very hectic, confusing day today, but break time is near.
as in poker you have to make moves based on the best available information at the given time and I don't usually go back and forth but info on Paul and Nash is worth more than the initial line move.
Memphis +12 for 1.3%
Memphis ML +600 for .3%
Jazz +3 for .8%
Milwaukee -4 for .8%
ATL over 186 for 1.3%
ATL under 190 for .5%
weighted 4 point middle oppurtunity, I'll take it, was hoping for 3.
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http://www.offshoregamblersdigest.com/editpost.php?do=editpost&p=400884
Phx +8 for 1.1%
Cleveland -8, some at -8.5 for 1.1% have to eat the juice and hope for no 8
LAC under 221 for .8%
SA over 189 for 1.1%
Houston/Sac under 213 for .8%
Boston -7 for .8%
NO +8/+7.5 for 1.1% hopefully lands 7
1st q Utah +.5 -105 for .6%
very hectic, confusing day today, but break time is near.
as in poker you have to make moves based on the best available information at the given time and I don't usually go back and forth but info on Paul and Nash is worth more than the initial line move.
Memphis +12 for 1.3%
Memphis ML +600 for .3%
Jazz +3 for .8%
Milwaukee -4 for .8%
ATL over 186 for 1.3%
ATL under 190 for .5%
weighted 4 point middle oppurtunity, I'll take it, was hoping for 3.
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http://www.offshoregamblersdigest.com/editpost.php?do=editpost&p=400884Phx +8 for 1.1%
Cleveland -8, some at -8.5 for 1.1% have to eat the juice and hope for no 8
LAC under 221 for .8%
SA over 189 for 1.1%
Houston/Sac under 213 for .8%
Boston -7 for .8%
NO +8/+7.5 for 1.1% hopefully lands 7
1st q Utah +.5 -105 for .6%
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
hopefully we get at least 6 minutes of typical Clipperball for this under. I think LAC covers vs Knicks but I may never lay points with them again.2348ji23e
hopefully we get at least 6 minutes of typical Clipperball for this under. I think LAC covers vs Knicks but I may never lay points with them again.2348ji23e
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
I'll take it. wasted the beautiful weather bugging on Nash and Paul. Should have just ignored those games and done something else. Still a good day, but today was weird. The all-star break definitely has an affect on the teams, shut down 2nd halves early as I could see the usual angles weren't going to be profitable. Well, more like the scenarios were just too strange.
Tomorrow ain't a whole lot better.
Portland getting 3 looks good.
Dallas/Boston has opposing angles on both side and total.
Chicago/Miami is a poor man's Detroit/Atlanta which I screwed up by not taking the Hawks. Hard to back Chicago but they will probably win. I may take the under small b/c of previous meetings.
I'll take it. wasted the beautiful weather bugging on Nash and Paul. Should have just ignored those games and done something else. Still a good day, but today was weird. The all-star break definitely has an affect on the teams, shut down 2nd halves early as I could see the usual angles weren't going to be profitable. Well, more like the scenarios were just too strange.
Tomorrow ain't a whole lot better.
Portland getting 3 looks good.
Dallas/Boston has opposing angles on both side and total.
Chicago/Miami is a poor man's Detroit/Atlanta which I screwed up by not taking the Hawks. Hard to back Chicago but they will probably win. I may take the under small b/c of previous meetings.