NBA for opening week

Re: NBA for opening week

Houston -3 for 1.5%
doubt it goes anywhere but up. added a little to it. one reason could be the ml is less at SIA than PIN
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Milwaukee +8 for 1.7%
I like it a lot. Clev off a big sht% vs Toronto and with Det up next. Milwaukee off a poor performance with 2x revenge. The number is so off I may add more.
ML anything +280 or more for .3%

OKC +9 for 1.1%
PHX -7 to -120 for .6%

ATL over 191.5/192 for .8%

PHX under 234 for 1.1%
PHX under 231 for .4%

Indiana +3 for .8%

Sacramento +6.5 for .8% (might get 7)
ML +230 for .3%

Washington +7.5 for .8%
ML +280 for .3%
 
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Re: NBA for opening week

no change with the 7 on Memphis, I'm most worried about this one, but I dont see Sac getting more than 4-5 most cases, in this spot it may be a different story.
Memphis over 206.5/207 for .4%
small, I liked this earlier and there's not as much math behind it as I'd like, but a bro sent me word that it was a good idea to take it so JR beers are on you this wknd if u f it up

before looking at it, I think NO 1st q or 1st half may present something.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

thanks I'll probably need it with the teams I'm riding, lol. Everything was over 56% to come in, but that means 44% of the time...

NO 1st q
and NO/LA under are fairly solid, not sure of amounts yet.

Yes, it seems as though the Lakers have recommitted to defense, and you have to wonder if the trade of Vlade made things better in overall team chemistry as it relates to offense v defense.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Interesting reading, ATX. It feels like I'm following a stream of consciousness. Thanks, and GL!
more like unconsciousness...:blink:

just wait until I lose it again. that time should be near, things have been running a little too well. NBA playoffs drive me to insanity if the last 2-3 weeks of the season don't get me there first.

1st q New Orleans +3 for .8%

NO/LA full game under 207.5 for .8%
 
Re: NBA for opening week

more like unconsciousness...:blink:

just wait until I lose it again. that time should be near, things have been running a little too well. NBA playoffs drive me to insanity if the last 2-3 weeks of the season don't get me there first.

1st q New Orleans +3 for .8%

NO/LA full game under 207.5 for .8%
tailing 1q, thanks....
 
Re: NBA for opening week

tailing 1q, thanks....
I looked at every boxscore for both and they just don't adjust it. I'm sure they get plenty of action on the Lakers to cover 1st q. New Orleans shot over 55% last game, generally that carries over to about halftime...see Dallas/Houston tonight, but LA should cover the game in the 2nd half. Because NO shot so high last game that really makes the under a decent bet. But it's not just that, if you look at all of New Orleans road games this total is just too high.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I looked at every boxscore for both and they just don't adjust it. I'm sure they get plenty of action on the Lakers to cover 1st q. New Orleans shot over 55% last game, generally that carries over to about halftime...see Dallas/Houston tonight, but LA should cover the game in the 2nd half. Because NO shot so high last game that really makes the under a decent bet. But it's not just that, if you look at all of New Orleans road games this total is just too high.

weighted to the home wood of the Laker's i guess
 
Re: NBA for opening week

weighted to the home wood of the Laker's i guess
a lot of the numbers are arbitrary, just figure holders with little significance of qualitative probability. poor bookies, their hands are tied because they pretty much have to line everything. I caught a lot of flak because in the past I've said that there are quite a few games that have over a 60% probability of winning. Sorry about that 1st quarter bet what did they shoot like 1-8 from 3 pt range in the first quarter? hard to predict that. if you got to SBR think tank you will find many, many posters that are so out there with their math skills, but they just don't get it. They are so busy picking up pennies that they forgot to look for bills. The key is switching gears when things change, being ahead of the curve. Sure you can grind out half percents all year but it's like Fishhead and his slots...what's the point? It's more profitable to just buy a damn machine and let other people play on it.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

a lot of the numbers are arbitrary, just figure holders with little significance of qualitative probability. poor bookies, their hands are tied because they pretty much have to line everything. I caught a lot of flak because in the past I've said that there are quite a few games that have over a 60% probability of winning. Sorry about that 1st quarter bet what did they shoot like 1-8 from 3 pt range in the first quarter? hard to predict that. if you got to SBR think tank you will find many, many posters that are so out there with their math skills, but they just don't get it. They are so busy picking up pennies that they forgot to look for bills. The key is switching gears when things change, being ahead of the curve. Sure you can grind out half percents all year but it's like Fishhead and his slots...what's the point? It's more profitable to just buy a damn machine and let other people play on it.

I could not agree more, not interested in pennies, although I pick them up on the street if I see them, more of a superstitious thing. Games at 60% is stretching the rubber band a bit, but I think you are talking flat wagers in this instance. And fisher does not wager any more to my knowledge.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

pretty much anything over 1.5% is saying that I think that is going to win about 60% of the time. Milwaukee +8 I had at close to 60%, the main draw back was the number itself, it was positioned to move to 7.5, and that is a number designed for a favorite, -5.5, -2.5, -10.5 are cousins. I was a little aggressive today but I forced it, I'm not gambling, and the NBA season is going to change, switch gears, relatively soon. This is the best time to make money, there is overlay everywhere, once the teams quit...since I don't watch the games it's hard for me to tell, but those moneyline dogs today, those were just on a team I thought might want it a little more and a couple extra points on their line didn't hurt. Speaking of extra points, Oklahoma City is getting 2. OKC +8 is very good, 8.5 means there's a possiblity for 9...won't get there. If it does then there's either an injury or it's down to about 59%. Mistakes today: everything Phoenix. Milwaukee was not a mistake, what happened in that game, how often you think that is going to happen in a home 3rd? Sure it's Cleveland, they have come on strong in 3rd quarters, but to that extent? 9 times out of 10 a team comes back and maybe takes the lead but even though the most extreme of takeovers occurred it held up. People in bars (don't tell them you bet on sports it's just not a fun conversation and girls are NOT going to dig it so much) sometimes ask me what makes me good and I tell them I'm not good I just have an advantage and everyone is good at something. So they ask me what gives me an advantage and I tell them 'a lot of outs.' They always reflex with 'like in baseball??' and that's when you kind of look at them funny like they are supposed to know about this, it's important before they start in on the 'my brother knows this guy that has lost one game ever or their theory on picking the Superbowl. That look puts them in their place gives them something to think about so they don't have a chance to say much of anything. But it's oh so true. How many times do I push on games or win because of line moves. Not really very many, when I do (at this point in the season) I need to make sure of the right side. I don't always take the right side, the right side doesn't always come in anyways, and that is what I need to check. So I tell them yes for baseball, basketball, football, and WNBA. I always say WNBA last. "How do you have outs in football?" I have a lot of shops. They don't know what shops are but if they have a clue they guess bookies. They are almost always going to say they know 2 or 3 bookies like that is overkill. They don't usually get it, since Austin has a fairly large business school and is filled with good'ol boys some of them do understand what I'm getting at very quickly without being told. Those few people can relate to economies of scale and market environments, overlay, arbitrage, risk of ruin, medians, regressions and correlative systems that tie it all togther, that's the hard part the systems. Those people find the market spin on this crazy racket intriguing, not as intriguing as poker, but I learn a lot by people asking me questions. It gets me thinking in another direction. But anyways the primary edge an investor can have is a wide, diversified market place. People want me to recommend a book I'm almost always going to say start with SIA. If you can't beat them then that's the step you need to work on after the primary concern, risk of ruin, is evaluated. No one can invest without something to invest, in order to have something it takes consistency and longevity. Money management, figure it out, stick to it, stick around. Without being around it's a gamble not an investment. Corporations are incorporated because they have been around for a long time and annexed other businesses along the way to become diversified in risk and ability. They have mission statements based on 25 years, 10 years, 5 years down to today with the most efficiently managed enterprises. What is an attainable goal for today, for tomorrow, for this week and the next, and for the month, and how do I get there. Persistent with that, years take care of themselves. Now I'm not really sure what I was talking about, but when I looked at Golden States stats tonight they were all very good. Except for points allowed and turnovers. Hard to win with either. Golden State is a team that is either going to usually win by 7 or more or lose altogether. Fresh off the Lakers it's a fair assumption that the Warriors might be a little flat. OKC matches up with this team and that's part of the reason they have covered 4 out of the last 5 including the last 3 when visiting Golden State. OKC had lost 5 games since Christmas by more than 8 before meeting Phoenix. At the Lakers they lost by 7, Portland caught them in a 3rd in 4. OKC is a young team that I don't think quits. Before tonight, over their last 5 games OKC averaged losing by about one point. Golden State, over their last 5 averaged winning by about 5 points. Both of their last 5 featured Portland and the Lakers. OKC had both of them on the road, Golden State had them both at home. After looking over their entire season I don't think the Warriors are 8 point favorites over much of anyone, much less a team that has won 3 out of the last 4.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Philadelphia +4 to -120 for 1.3%
I'm paying for sleep, I had this -2/pk before the line came out.
76'ers should win they are the better team.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

So, with the SIA thing, I then suppose that the 1.5% + plays come from other outs as they tend to tell you what you need to see/know b/c you find SIA to be soft under the conditions or restraints of your wagering style. Do you then play more .6% and less at SIA, even though they have you capped.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Can't wait for the OKC play to get posted.:cheers
I spent about 20 hours on basketball yesterday. I haven't gotten much sleep, but before I did I decided there were going to be 3 decent plays today. Jazz over, Philly at 2, OKC. Jazz should be more like 202, the 76ers are getting about 2 points and same with OKC. OKC has a fairly decent shot at winning SU, but I've lost a lot of value on that ML. With SA/Wash, I think with such a large road favorite and a spread so low the 2nd half, this looks for a spot favoring Washington.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

So, with the SIA thing, I then suppose that the 1.5% + plays come from other outs as they tend to tell you what you need to see/know b/c you find SIA to be soft under the conditions or restraints of your wagering style. Do you then play more .6% and less at SIA, even though they have you capped.
depends. with THAT many games yesterday and so many positions (I had at least 25 positions, I narrowed them down) I was spending a lot of time making sure not to make mistakes. I still made 2, or 1 if one is an optimist, by getting involved with Phoenix. The Indiana 2h bet was over 58% to come in, the other two dogs, Washington and Sacramento, were more typical of the 2nd half I was looking for. And once again another solid under draws OT. Slight mistake not betting the 2h over larger, but the angle I used had not been hitting much lately, I think it's good again now. All Star break affects it I think.

I think what you are asking is how much the differing numbers at specific books affects the amount I put on a game. Everything depends, but I'm guessing it typically weighs about 20-25%. Sometimes it is 100% of the reason I make a bet. But those are relatively small, .4% to .6%, I do that a lot in baseball. My approach starts with being unbiased. I have to be able to clearly see both sides of a position. For the Houston game, the Rockets were nearly an automatic wager. They had a great number, are the better team, and Dallas almost 55% in their last game. The public was on the Mavericks. Sharper outs were inflating the Rockets, and I don't always check this sort of thing but it's not too often that Pinnacle has a higher ML than SIA on a -3 (starting +4) NBA game.

more later.

I'm switching gears:

total of 2.0% on Philadelphia +4 to -120 for me.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

The more things that line up on a game the more I put on it. On Houston, the only thing that detracted from that side was the big injury and the trade. I discounted for that. Without the trade I would have put more than 2% on that game, at the half I KNEW it was coming in, I've seen this scenario many times and I was just hoping it would be 9 at the half (teams that fight get within DD at half) As far as the numbers, getting good numbers...I have a ton of outs. I know a lot of locals, I know a lot of sportsbooks. More books are needed for the NBA than football. To get the best of the number you pretty much have to be indisposed at certain times. I'm very good at knowing which way a line will go which is a big part of things. I haven't been as good lately, but over 80% is not unreasonable. I'll get sick of watching the screen pretty soon and have to take worse numbers at slightly lower amounts.

I'm switching gears. I'm going to increase wager size on everything and just depend on the percentages to work out.

Washington +8 to -120 for 2.0%
I'm buying to 8 on both. It's worth it for me because if another 8 lands it would be far more expensive psychologically than what I'm paying.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

how do you feel about ny tomorrow. Blowing out toronto fri giving 3 now getting 3.5 with about the same total
no way to back Toronto. in a home and home I look to take the team that didn't cover in the 2nd and go under. Toronto shouldn't be favored over anyone right now. Raptors have won 3 games since Christmas as a favorite. After looking at it for a couple minutes the true line should be pk (actually NY maybe a slight favorite). I haven't looked at everything but no way should Toronto be -3. It's a short spread so that's the only drawback but the books are making the adjustment b/c of what usually happens between a home and home, but Toronto is awful right now.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

how do you feel about ny tomorrow. Blowing out toronto fri giving 3 now getting 3.5 with about the same total
NY is a strong pick against Toronto tomorrow. Public will probably be on NY but for good reason. Thanks for pointing this game out.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Sacramento 1st q +4 for .8%
ML +280 for .2%

At first I liked the over for this game. And I think it goes over. Just no way to justify laying more than 210. Dallas has San Antonio up next. They just got whitewashed in the 2nd half against Houston yesterday. Sacramento played a fairly complete 4 quarters yesterday. Did they celebrate or are they going to try to put something together as a team. I think with the trade it gave them a little bit of life. I think Dallas might be a little hung over from the Rockets yesterday. I looked at every box score and see no reason for Dallas to lay 4. I see a lot of reasons that Sacramento can win this 1st quarter. Discounted because Sacramento is a bad team. They haven't won 2 games in a row since games number 5-7 at the beginning of the season.

Thoughts on Philadelphia/Miami. An appx 40% side caught up with me. I always ask myself 'would I do it all over again and what differently?' Not much. The sixers nearly overcame 37% shooting to cover, win. They won the battle of the boards, had an edge at the line, and a big edge with turnover ratio. Congrats to all the Miami backers. :cocktail
 
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