Re: NBA for opening week
pretty much anything over 1.5% is saying that I think that is going to win about 60% of the time. Milwaukee +8 I had at close to 60%, the main draw back was the number itself, it was positioned to move to 7.5, and that is a number designed for a favorite, -5.5, -2.5, -10.5 are cousins. I was a little aggressive today but I forced it, I'm not gambling, and the NBA season is going to change, switch gears, relatively soon. This is the best time to make money, there is overlay everywhere, once the teams quit...since I don't watch the games it's hard for me to tell, but those moneyline dogs today, those were just on a team I thought might want it a little more and a couple extra points on their line didn't hurt. Speaking of extra points, Oklahoma City is getting 2. OKC +8 is very good, 8.5 means there's a possiblity for 9...won't get there. If it does then there's either an injury or it's down to about 59%. Mistakes today: everything Phoenix. Milwaukee was not a mistake, what happened in that game, how often you think that is going to happen in a home 3rd? Sure it's Cleveland, they have come on strong in 3rd quarters, but to that extent? 9 times out of 10 a team comes back and maybe takes the lead but even though the most extreme of takeovers occurred it held up. People in bars (don't tell them you bet on sports it's just not a fun conversation and girls are NOT going to dig it so much) sometimes ask me what makes me good and I tell them I'm not good I just have an advantage and everyone is good at something. So they ask me what gives me an advantage and I tell them 'a lot of outs.' They always reflex with 'like in baseball??' and that's when you kind of look at them funny like they are supposed to know about this, it's important before they start in on the 'my brother knows this guy that has lost one game ever or their theory on picking the Superbowl. That look puts them in their place gives them something to think about so they don't have a chance to say much of anything. But it's oh so true. How many times do I push on games or win because of line moves. Not really very many, when I do (at this point in the season) I need to make sure of the right side. I don't always take the right side, the right side doesn't always come in anyways, and that is what I need to check. So I tell them yes for baseball, basketball, football, and WNBA. I always say WNBA last. "How do you have outs in football?" I have a lot of shops. They don't know what shops are but if they have a clue they guess bookies. They are almost always going to say they know 2 or 3 bookies like that is overkill. They don't usually get it, since Austin has a fairly large business school and is filled with good'ol boys some of them do understand what I'm getting at very quickly without being told. Those few people can relate to economies of scale and market environments, overlay, arbitrage, risk of ruin, medians, regressions and correlative systems that tie it all togther, that's the hard part the systems. Those people find the market spin on this crazy racket intriguing, not as intriguing as poker, but I learn a lot by people asking me questions. It gets me thinking in another direction. But anyways the primary edge an investor can have is a wide, diversified market place. People want me to recommend a book I'm almost always going to say start with SIA. If you can't beat them then that's the step you need to work on after the primary concern, risk of ruin, is evaluated. No one can invest without something to invest, in order to have something it takes consistency and longevity. Money management, figure it out, stick to it, stick around. Without being around it's a gamble not an investment. Corporations are incorporated because they have been around for a long time and annexed other businesses along the way to become diversified in risk and ability. They have mission statements based on 25 years, 10 years, 5 years down to today with the most efficiently managed enterprises. What is an attainable goal for today, for tomorrow, for this week and the next, and for the month, and how do I get there. Persistent with that, years take care of themselves. Now I'm not really sure what I was talking about, but when I looked at Golden States stats tonight they were all very good. Except for points allowed and turnovers. Hard to win with either. Golden State is a team that is either going to usually win by 7 or more or lose altogether. Fresh off the Lakers it's a fair assumption that the Warriors might be a little flat. OKC matches up with this team and that's part of the reason they have covered 4 out of the last 5 including the last 3 when visiting Golden State. OKC had lost 5 games since Christmas by more than 8 before meeting Phoenix. At the Lakers they lost by 7, Portland caught them in a 3rd in 4. OKC is a young team that I don't think quits. Before tonight, over their last 5 games OKC averaged losing by about one point. Golden State, over their last 5 averaged winning by about 5 points. Both of their last 5 featured Portland and the Lakers. OKC had both of them on the road, Golden State had them both at home. After looking over their entire season I don't think the Warriors are 8 point favorites over much of anyone, much less a team that has won 3 out of the last 4.