Ned - I want to be a believer

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Grreen Fly

EOG Member
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Daily record: 1-3-1 -$219

Overall record: 1-11-1 -$1052

No plays to make at this time. There is confusion on which team to play tomorrow for baseball which I've pointed out in this thread. It doesn't matter since there's no runline up for the Cubs game anyway so I'll just sort it all out tomorrow.
 
G

Grreen Fly

EOG Member
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

The Cubs look to have turned into the biggest clear ML fave for today so we'll go with:

Reds +1.5 -118, risk 118 to win 100
 
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Grreen Fly

EOG Member
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

My privilege to post a signature (where I had a link to this thread) has been removed. I have not been sent an explanation for why this was done.

If I have broken some rule I would appreciate a note telling me what I did wrong.
 
G

Grreen Fly

EOG Member
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

We are on the doorstep of the Twilight Zone. If Detroit had hit either of their last 2 shots it would have been an 0-7 day.

Daily record: 2-5 -$395.50

Overall record: 3-16-1 -$1447.50
 
G

Grreen Fly

EOG Member
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Two plays for tomorrow that we haven't covered yet:

NO/Den Under 196.5 -101, risk 101 to win 100
A's +1.5 +106, risk 100 to win 106
 
G

Grreen Fly

EOG Member
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Another crazy day for Ned's followers:

Daily record: 1-4 -$405

Overall record: 4-20-1 -$1852.50

I started with a BR of $10000 (which is the reason for $100 units, 1% of BR) but I have lost so much I may have to start adjusting my betsize soon. I'll stick with $100 for one more day and see what happens.

We have the same problem as before with figuring out who is the biggest ML fave in Baseball. Phillies and Cubs both opened at -163 at Pinn and the Cubs are now a bigger fave by 3 cents. Since they have no runline posted until tomorrow, we'll wait til then to figure it out. I'll do NBA tomorrow as well.
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Now its game time for the Brewers, I'll make the call for Grreen Fly, Pinnacle has Brewers as biggest dog of the day:

Brewers +1.5 -127, risk $127 to win $100
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

ComptrBob said:
Now its game time for the Brewers, I'll make the call for Grreen Fly, Pinnacle has Brewers as biggest dog of the day:

Brewers +1.5 -127, risk $127 to win $100
Click to expand...

i must be slow but i still don't understand why you would be wagering on the +1 1/2....
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

ComptrBob said:
I'm not doing the wagering, it's a pick from Ned's "biggest dog on the 1 1/2 runline" system that Grreen Fly has been tracking..
Click to expand...

i understand that bob, i just don't get using the run lines at bad lines...can't see taking +1 1/2 @ -127 more profitable over the long run versus taking the +200.
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

cassiusclay said:
i don't think he would have the answer bob, i believe you do. 12io4j2w90
Click to expand...

Its a somewhat complicated subject, but the ML corresponding to the +1.5 @ -127 was +166. The difference in breakeven probability is 55.95% - 37.59% = 18.35%. This is also roughly the percentage that a home fav wins by exactly 1 run.

Thus they are roughly equivalent bets. If somehow you got +200 on this game, that would be a better bet than the +1.5 runline.
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

thx, today is a good example of a "wasted wager" with the score 5-0 in the brewers favor the +165 seems to have been a more profitable play.

bob, any thoughts on the winning numbers in the powerball this week? your thoughts would be appreciated.
 
G

Grreen Fly

EOG Member
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Whoops, I didn't notice that start time on the Philly game. I would have indeed chosen that game to bet $100 so we'll include that in the record. Thanks to Comptrbob for the catch and he can feel free to add plays I may miss in the future.

Given the apparent drama exit by Ned in the other thread this experiment may soon be not much relevant anymore but we'll keep going for the time being. I don't see any plays on sides but we have all 3 games today that qualify for the Under System:

Bos/Chic Under 201.5 -101, risk 101 to win 100
SA/Dall Under 190 -102, risk 102 to win 100
LAL/Ut Under 213 -102, risk 102 to win 100
 
G

Grreen Fly

EOG Member
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

That's quite a way to introduce our first winning day! Get out the brooms!

Daily record: 4-0 +$400

Overall record: 8-20-1 -$1452.50
 
G

Grreen Fly

EOG Member
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

MLB Wash +1.5 +106, risk 100 to win 106

I'll figure out the NBA tomorrow. It seems like betting the Unders late has been the way to go so far anyway.
 
G

Grreen Fly

EOG Member
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Cleve/Det Under 178 -103, risk 103 to win 100
Port/Hou Under 184.5 -112, risk 112 to win 100
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Games going off in next few minutes. Close MLB dog RL pick today, but biggest fav seems to be NY Mets -165 beats out CWS -158. Thus

MLB Wash +1.5 -136, risk 136 to win 100

NBA Den/NO Under 195.5 -114, risk 114 to win 100
 
G

Grreen Fly

EOG Member
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Thanks Bob. I admit I've gotten a little slack in here since Ned's act is wearing a little thin on me lately. As time goes by and I realize what the Asylum is all about (non-sports related content) the fact that admin directed me over here doesn't thrill me too much either. I tried to link to my thread here in my sig and my sig privileges were removed.

But I'll plod on for the time being:

SA/Dall Under 188 -109, risk 109 to win 100
LAL/Ut Under 208.5 -105, risk 105 to win 100
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Game going off in next 10 minutes. Close MLB dog RL pick today, but biggest fav seems to be SD -197 beats out NY Mets -163. Thus

MLB Pitt +1.5 -129, risk 129 to win 100

NBA Bos/Chic Under 202.5 -103, risk 103 to win 100
NBA Cleve/Det Under 178 +105, risk 100 to win 105
NBA Port/Hou Under 182 -111, risk 111 to win 100
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Update of results:

4/24 : 3-0. +306
4/25 : 2-2. -45
4/26 : 3-1. +202

Overall: 16-23-1, -989.50
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Get post up early today, MLB biggest fav seems to be CWS -201. Thus

MLB Sea +1.5 -115, risk 115 to win 100

NBA Den/NO Under 194 -110, risk 110 to win 100
NBA Utah/LAL Under 211 -111, risk 111 to win 100

NBA Atlanta +5 -106, risk 106 to win 100 (prev loss by 25 or more)
NBA Lakers -12.5 +101, risk 100 to win 101 (#1 seed as DD fav)
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

4/27 : 3-1. +200 (RL Dog game was postponed)
Overall: 19-24-1, -789.50

Biggest dog on the ML is Was +167, thus:
MLB Was +1.5 -131, risk 131 to win 100

NBA Chi/Bos Under 198.5 -106, risk 106 to win 100
NBA Dal/SA Under 189 -110, risk 110 to win 100
NBA Hou/Port Under 182.5 -107, risk 107 to win 100
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Grreen Fly said:
Play on any #1 seed favoured by 10+:

Lakers
Cleveland
Orlando

Orlando -10 +100, risk 200 to win 200
Click to expand...

I reviewed the plays listed before and found an error that included Orlando as a #1 seed in one of Ned's systems. Thus the listed bet should have risked 150 instread of 200. This bet lost so I'll credit 50 to the net profit/loss.

Overall: 19-24-1, -739.50
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

4/28 : 1-3 -247
Overall: 20-27-1, -986.50

Biggest dog on the ML is Pitt +188, thus:
MLB Pitt +1.5 -121, risk 121 to win 100

NBA NO/Den Under 198 -102, risk 102 to win 100
NBA New Orleans +10.5 -102, risk 102 to win 100 (>=25 pt loss in prev gm)
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

4/29 : 2-1 +98
Overall: 20-27-1, -888.50

Biggest dog on the ML: LA Angels +208, thus:
MLB LA Angels +1.5 +105, risk 100 to win 105

NBA Bos/Chic Under 195.5 -101, risk 101 to win 100
NBA Port/Hou Under 179 -103, risk 103 to win 100
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

4/30 : 1-2, -101
Overall: 23-30-1, -989.50

Biggest dog on the ML: Marlins +261, thus:
MLB Marlins +1.5 +113, risk 113 to win 100
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Posting early for Saturday, May 2:

Biggest dog on the ML: LA Angels +230, thus:
MLB LA Angels +1.5 +112, risk 112 to win 100

NBA Bos/Chic Under 196.5 -110, risk 110 to win 100
 
G

Grreen Fly

EOG Member
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Nitpick: both RL bets today and tomorrow have the risk and return figures switched.

Good catch on the Orlando error earlier, not sure what I was thinking.
 
Timely Hero

Timely Hero

Jacoby Blows
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

I have no clue why any of your posts were moved. They all seem to be right on.
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Catching up for the weekend, thanks to GF for pointing out that I screwed up the amount risked on both the MLB RLs, daily results:

5/1 : 0-1, -100
5/2 : 1-1, +2

Sunday, 5/3:
Biggest dog on the ML: Padres +200, thus:
MLB Padres +1.5 -115, risk 115 to win 100
NBA Atlanta -5 -110, risk 110 to win 100 (>=25 pt loss in prev gm)

5/3 : 1-1, -15
Overall: 25-33-1, -1102.50
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Biggest dog on the ML: Orioles +206, thus:
MLB Orioles +1.5 -101, risk 101 to win 100

Top 5 Off/Defensive teams has games involving LAL, Clev, Bos all bet UNDER for Round 2.

NBA Orl/Bos Under 188.5 -107, risk 107 to win 100
NBA Hou/LAL Under 193.5 -105, risk 105 to win 100
 
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